Thursday, June 14, 2007
Adams and the problem of detachment…
Nelson McCausland has accused Gerry Adams of being an absentee MLA (as opposed to an abstentionist MP). PA notes that besides having no ministerial responsibilities, he doesn’t sit on any Stormont committees. He certainly intends to be absent from Stormont today, when he will sit in the public gallery of Dail Eireann for the vote for the new taoiseach. Whatever the party had planned for the post general election, the party’s poor election performance has seen it all but buried in the flurry of media coverage of the Green/Fianna Fail deal. Certainly remaining so detached from the machinery of government cannot help him work on some of his own deficits that were shown up in so dramatically in the public debate.
Mick Fealty @ 06:06 AM
Gerry Adams is not a very happy man. One reason he is avoiding been seen at stormount is probably because he is still suffering from embarrassment over the recent ROI elections were SF only managed to secure four seats a loss of 20% from the 2002 election.
Like I said in another thread, the very fact the Green party with six seats has been invited to form government with FF must be a rude awakening for Gerry & Sinn Fein who polled so poorly in the recent 2007 election.
Interesting enough the Green Party is the only other party which has an all Ireland cross border political mandate like Sinn Fein.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Party_(Ireland)
However, unlike SF the GP is not an all out republican party whose main agenda is a United Ireland.
Is there not a message here for Gerry Adams when he will sit in the public gallery of Dail Eireann today that the voters in the ROI are more interested in all island of Ireland green policies, than in forcing 10% of Unionists in the north to support the obsessive SF policies for a political United Ireland?
Posted by on Jun 14, 2007 @ 06:42 AM‘Is there not a message here for Gerry Adams when he will sit in the public gallery of Dail Eireann today that the voters in the ROI are more interested in all island of Ireland green policies, than in forcing 10% of Unionists in the north to support the obsessive SF policies for a political United Ireland?’
A curious and spurious argument not based on fact. SF got 6.9% of the First Preference vote compared to 4.7% gor the Greens.
Posted by on Jun 14, 2007 @ 07:01 AMand how many seats did that 6.9% get them? Apart from people who vote 1st preference the of the country think they’re a bunch of eejits (to out it lightly lol).
Posted by on Jun 14, 2007 @ 07:04 AMOK, let’s completely disregard the 6.9% of the electorate just to give your argument some credibility.
Posted by on Jun 14, 2007 @ 07:07 AMNelson McCausland has accused Gerry Adams of being an absentee MLA
Nelson McCausland DUP MLA, might do the honourable thing and mention another absentee MLA namely David Burnside who still thinks he is a westminister Member of Parliament.
http://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/david_burnside/south_antrim
UUP MLA David Burnside is more interested in his London business interests and westminister connections than he is in attending Stormont in support of his fellow UUP MLA’s.
Posted by on Jun 14, 2007 @ 07:09 AMA curious and spurious argument not based on fact. SF got 6.9% of the First Preference vote compared to 4.7% gor the Greens
Austin,
Your statement only proves that GF used good vote management 4.7% of the vote to gain six seats and SF’s used 6.9% of the votte to only secure four seats.
Poor, indeed very poor vote management by SF.
2002 SF won five TD seats.
2007 SF won four TD seatsAny 14 year old doing their sums corrrectly could work out SF had a total loss of TD seats in Dail Eireann of 20% from 2002 to 2007. Nothing spurious about that Austin.
Posted by on Jun 14, 2007 @ 07:26 AMMick wrote:
>he will sit in the public gallery of Dail
>Eireann for the vote for the new taoiseach.
.....
>Certainly remaining so detached from the
>machinery of government cannot help him work on
>some of his own deficits that were shown up in
>so dramatically in the public debate.Surely attending the Dail is a contribution to helping him work on his deficits? It’s the politics of the Dail that he needs to improve on, no? Some might say that the less time he spends at Stormont, the better for SF in the long term…
Posted by on Jun 14, 2007 @ 07:49 AMIn theory, yes. But, in practice, there is no substitute for participation. Learning by doing. There is the space in Stormont for him to get the experience, but it looks like party strategists just hadn’t figured on the knock back, otherwise he would have been given some kind of senior office.
There is a problem with the Dail from a Sinn Fein point of view certainly, but is that not Caoimhin’s job to sort out? Sitting the public gallery risks Adams looking like a supernumerary and gives the impression that somehow he doesn’t quite trust his leader there to do the job.
At a guess (and it is only a guess) I would say he’d been slotted to build his island wide profile on what was hoped would be a successful media campaign and with a doubled number of TDs at his back. I’ve no doubt he’ll take whatever heat comes his way manfully. But it gives the distinct impression that there had been no alternative strategy planned for this situation.
With negotiations with the British now at the end, Adams is beginning to look junior to his number two (McGuinness) and his nominal number three (O’Caolain).
Posted by on Jun 14, 2007 @ 08:33 AMMick, all fair points. I wonder whether there might be mileage in really giving him a sort of presidential role to match his title? It’s something Hume went some way towards. Foreign contacts, overall strategy, PR, top-level negotiations. The problem is that most political leaders are too arrogant to accept that the nitty-gritty can be better left to others. Even Hume took a considerable time to be persuaded that Mallon was the man for the DFM job. Adams has at least shown he can accept this to some degree by appointing McG as DFM without any apparent difficulty. It would mean giving a TD a much higher profile than at present and I wonder if the one they had planned to anoint is actually in the Dail. O’C is a safe pair of hands but I can’t see him leading a SF charge back in the polls. It does seem to be a tricky one.
Posted by on Jun 14, 2007 @ 08:50 AMNelson has got some cheek to be honrst !
Perhaps he might care to relay a few of his own party’s level of attendance at Westminster…
Posted by on Jun 14, 2007 @ 09:02 AMFigures?
Posted by on Jun 14, 2007 @ 09:08 AMBriso,
Your suggestion certainly makes sense, and perhaps had there been an alternative strategy it is something we might be seeing the beginnings of now.
The problem is the opportunity cost of the peace process period. A lot of time (and goodwill) has evaporated since 1998. Some of SF’s problems in the south is a degree of impatience with people who, when hardy comes to hardy, can only close a deal when their hand is forced.
Hume, by contrast, had a capacity to broker money and deals, which largely came from his early time in Europe, when NI really needed help. He went to Strasbourg with passably decent French, which probably allowed him to hit the ground running more than many other of his Irish and British colleagues. It’s certainly one reason why a still strongly unionist friend of mine voted for him back in ‘79.
But he also assiduously courted friends and influence in Dublin, Washington and London in both public and private spheres. If Gerry is going to go down that route, he’d need to get cracking.
Agree entirely with you on the safety factor of O’C. But, as you say, safe is not good enough in this game. The ‘loss’ of Pearse Doherty will likely tell heavily in that respect.
Posted by on Jun 14, 2007 @ 09:18 AMPerhaps he might care to relay a few of his own party’s level of attendance at Westminster…
Macswiney,
At least the nine DUP westminster MP’s, three SDLP MP’s and one UUP MP attend parliament, unlike the five shinner MP’s who refuse to take their seats.
Posted by on Jun 14, 2007 @ 09:41 AMGrizzly’s four horsemen
Could the four horsemen of Gerry Adams, and those from SF/IRA been the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse traditionally named PESTILENCE, WAR, FAMINE AND DEATH over the past 35 years?
Posted by on Jun 14, 2007 @ 10:35 AMIs that man or ball, there, Gerry?
Mick
“The problem is the opportunity cost of the peace process period. A lot of time (and goodwill) has evaporated since 1998. Some of SF’s problems in the south is a degree of impatience with people who, when hardy comes to hardy, can only close a deal when their hand is forced. “
You are over analysising.
Their deal closing ability or otherwise is irrelevant in the South. What cost them goodwill was Columbia, Northern Bank, McCartney murder. Some or all of which could have happened even if SF had have “closed” before now. If they had have been in the position they are now, they may have had a freer hand but there would still have been damage.
But that misses the wider point. The polls indicated they recovered a fair percentage of that good will leading up to the election. What they found is that good will isn’t enough once you are placed under scrutiny and the election has consequence. And that would have been the same regardless of when that happened.
As for Gerry, he has two options:
1. He stands for election in the South. Very uncertain, also risks monumental vote percentage in West Belfast.
2. He devolves more power to MMG and O’C, and takes a more over arching role. As President he supplies the vision, people in the two jurisdictions do what is appropriate and necessary to achieve it.Posted by on Jun 14, 2007 @ 10:40 AMGerry Adams has contempt for his constituents - the fact that he honours none of his mandates should be no surprise.
As he is often fond of pointing out, West Belfast has some of the areas of highest deprivation in the North.
One day, perhaps, the people of that part of the world will make the connection between this fact and the parlimentary work rate of their MP.
Posted by on Jun 14, 2007 @ 10:41 AM“SF got 6.9% of the First Preference vote compared to 4.7% gor the Greens.”
How did their first preference vote do in the 5 constituencies they won in 2002 ?
Posted by on Jun 14, 2007 @ 10:44 AM“One day, perhaps, the people of that part of the world will make the connection between this fact and the parlimentary work rate of their MP.”
Yeah, because whether Gerry Adams turns up for Prime Ministers questions will solve the problems of West Belfast.
Posted by on Jun 14, 2007 @ 10:55 AM“But he also assiduously courted friends and influence in Dublin, Washington and London in both public and private spheres. If Gerry is going to go down that route, he’d need to get cracking.”
He’s simply not the right person for that job. The extent of the baggage he carries would repel many of the people he needs to court and as an individual just isn’t the type they want to mix with privately or be associated with publicly.
Actually at this juncture it’s getting harder and harder to see what job he is the right person for.
Posted by on Jun 14, 2007 @ 11:16 AMkensei,
Sorry to sound a bit uppity, but I do wonder how closely you read these threads bytimes? I was answering Briso’s suggestion, not giving a general analysis.
Posted by on Jun 14, 2007 @ 11:17 AMIt will probably take a few months to see what Sinn Fein’s strategy will be regarding Leinster House. I suspect it will take some time before the barriers between them and a majority of the voting public will erode to the point where they can be a mainstream political party.
But where there are people as obviously dedicated as the core of their organisation are, I wouldn’t be so confident of their demise as some here are.
Sinn Fein ain’t dead, they just smell funny right now.
Posted by on Jun 14, 2007 @ 11:31 AM“Sorry to sound a bit uppity, but I do wonder how closely you read these threads bytimes? I was answering Briso’s suggestion, not giving a general analysis.”
I suggest you play by your own fucking rules.
In that post, in answer to Briso, which oddly enough witht he ability to read I did notice, you made a fairly wide point regarding people’s impatience with SF’s ability to “close a deal”. I disagree that it matters. In fact I think it doesn’t matter one bit, and I think that is over analysing the situation when there are bigger, more obvious reasons for the loss of goodwill. So I challenged that point. I agree with some of the other bits you said, so I didn’t challenge them because, well, I agreed with them.
So, to be blunt, what the fuck is your problem?
Posted by on Jun 14, 2007 @ 11:33 AMAnger management issues.
Posted by on Jun 14, 2007 @ 11:49 AMCalm down, calm down!!
You said I was overanalysising. Fine, no problem with that. And I’ve no problem with what you want to factor in. But why is the slowness of their deal making to be discounted?
Look at the bye FF was given over the late delivery of capital projects, the cock-ups over the tunnel, and the massive overshooting of the budget on the Luas.
Frankly, from a southern pov, a government that messes up in the kind of quick timeframe FF has been working in gets forgiven, because the tax base is high in this high growth era and that it is seen to be delivering badly needed infrastructural projects.
Now look at the ponderous pace of the peace process aimed, perhaps, at ‘burning off’ unionist opposition, and it just doesn’t scan t the average voter in the Republic.
Right actor perhaps, just the wrong play.
Posted by on Jun 14, 2007 @ 11:57 AMPoem for Gerry Adams.
The Indispensable Man
(Saxon White Kessinger)
Sometime when you’re feeling important;
Sometime when your ego’s in Bloom
Sometime when you take it for granted
You’re the best qualified in the room.
Sometime when you feel that your going
would leave an unfillable hole
Just follow these simple instructions
and see how they humble your soul.
Take a bucket and fill it with water
Put your hand in it up to the wrist
Pull it out and the hole that’s remaining
Is the measure of how you’ll be missed.
You can splash all you wish when you enter
You may stir up the water galore.
But stop and you’ll find that in no time
It looks quite the same as before.
The moral of this quaint example
Is just do the best that you can.
Be proud of yourself but remember,
There’s no indespensable man.Posted by on Jun 14, 2007 @ 12:06 PM
