Nice quote:

“The remarkably high popularity ratings enjoyed by Rhodri – always way ahead of his party – are testimony to the fact that people like his style. He is the antithesis of a technocratic, machine politician of the kind many people now have an aversion towards. Despite the fact he is a considerable intellectual with an eclectic mind, he has never shown the slightest tendency to be snobbish or superior. It is this characteristic, coupled with his occasionally wacky sense of humour, that has so endeared him to the people of Wales.”

South East Wales Plaid Cymru list Assembly Member Mohammad Asghar defects to the Tories.
As a list AM Mr Asghar was elected by people voting for Plaid Cymru rather than an individual. It does seem strange that resignation and replacement by the next Plaid Cymru candidate on the South East list isn’t compulsory in these circumstances…(I would say that I know…).
Rumours abound that the second spot on the South East list is now a route for Adam Price to get into the Assembly…Well that’s what Betsan thinks….

It’s got everything - heroics, lynchings, show trials, executions, great songs, exiles and imprisonment….and best of all total abject glorious failure….

Let’s meet the Wobblies. Today the Industrial Workers of the World are at the vanguard of the struggle for justice for Starbucks employees. Naom Chomsky still a member by the way, and a presence in Scotland.

The One Big Union has a more glorious past than it’s present indicates. Here’s the pretty good Wiki..
Founded in Chicago in 1905 the IWW was the first American practical example of Industrial Unionism, what we would call here syndicalism. Logic encapsulated in the “One Big Union” slogan. If, during a miners strike railwaymen would refuse to transport scab labour then how could you lose? Simple really…
As usual Miners played a leading role - the Western Federation of Miners the key driver behind the set up of the IWW.
It’s worth a quick scan of some of the early members of the IWW
Eugene V Debs - the most successful socialist Presidential candidate of all time, Debs got 6% in 1912 and more votes but a lower percentage when he stood from prison in 1920. (Jailed for opposing conscription in WW1).
Daniel De Leon the Marxist theoretician was also an early member.
Joe Hill, famous victim of state murder was also an early member. Great Ballads and songs ( Here’s Joan). Here’s his last written words, awaiting execution:

My will is easy to decide - For there is nothing to divide
My kin don’t need to fuss and moan - Moss does not cling to a rolling stone.
My body? - Oh. - If I could choose I would to ashes it reduce
And let the merry breezes blow my dust to where some flowers grow
Perhaps some fading flower then would come to life and bloom again
This is my Last and final Will
Good Luck to All of you - Joe Hill.

Again his Wiki is well worth a read.
As an aside I didn’t realise that Helen Keller had been a member - You learn something new…
Oh and your man Larkin - Before the Yanks threw him in the clink
Which brings us to the best of the lot :
Big Bill Haywood, pictured above. There’s his life It’s got the lot - Haywood died in Moscow in 1927. He travelled Europe in 1910, meeting Lenin and Luxembourg but also coming to Wales. Here’s a speech he gave in New York City in 1911 The General Strike - I quote:

“And in Wales it was my good fortune to be there, not to theorize but to take part in the general strike among the coal miners. Previous to my coming, or in previous strikes, the Welsh miners had been in the habit of quitting work, carrying out their tools, permitting the mine managers to run the pumps, allowing the engine winders to remain at work, carrying food down to the horses, keeping the mines in good shape, while the miners themselves were marching from place to place singing their old-time songs, gathering on the meeting grounds of the ancient Druids and listening to the speeches of the labor leaders; starving for weeks contentedly, and on all occasions acting most peaceably; going back to work when they were compelled to by starvation. But this last strike was an entirely different one. It was like the shoemakers’ strike in Brooklyn. Some new methods had been injected into the strike. I had spoken there on a number of occasions previous to the strike being inaugurated, and I told them of the methods that we adopted in the West, where every man employed in and around the mine belongs to the same organization; where, when we went on strike, the mine closed down. They thought that that was a very excellent system. So the strike was declared. They at once notified the engine winders, who had a separate contract with the mine owners, that they would not be allowed to work. The engine winders passed a resolution saying that they would not work. The haulers took the same position. No one was allowed to approach the mines to run the machinery. Well, the mine manager, like the mine managers everywhere, taking unto himself the idea that the mines belonged to him, said, “Certainly the men won’t interfere with us. We will go up and run the machinery. And they took along the office force. But the miners had a different notion and they said, “You can work in the office, but you can’t run this machinery. That isn’t your work. If you run that you will be scabbing; and we don’t permit you to scab—not in this section of the country, now.” They were compelled to go back to the office. There were 325 horses underground, which the manager, Llewellyn, complained about being in a starving condition. The officials of the union said, “We will hoist the horses out of the mine.”

“Oh, no,” he said, “we don’t want to bring them up. We will all be friends in a few days.”

“You will either bring up the horses now or you will let them stay there.”

He said, “No, we won’t bring them up now.”

The pumps were closed down on the Cambria mine. 12,000 miners were there to see that they didn’t open. Llewellyn started a hue and cry that the horses would be drowned, and the king sent the police, sent the soldiers and sent a message to Llewellyn asking “if the horses were still safe.” He didn’t say anything about his subjects, the men. Guarded by soldiers, a few scabs, assisted by the office force, were able to run the pumps. Llewellyn himself and his bookkeeping force went down and fed the horses.

Had there been an industrial organization comprising the railroaders and every other branch of industry, the mines of Wales would be closed down to-day.”

I highlighted the bit that tickled me - meeting grounds of the ancient Druids indeed….......

Some Welsh syndicalist stuff - The Miner’s Next Step - the Noah Abblett inspired pamphlet written after the strike described by Haywood above.
Syndicalism in South Wales -  A succinct history.

I repeat - be careful not to get sucked in…

Process
An electoral college of 3 parts of equal strength will decide the winner:
1) Elected AMs, MPs and MEP with an equal say - 1 MEP, 26 AMs and 29 MPs. This means that MPs have a greater say in who becomes leader in the Assembly than Assembly Members themselves. Very strange.
2) Party Membership - I’d guess about 10,000 people give or take 2000.
3) Unions affiliated to the Welsh Labour Party - this lot with the percentages of the cake. These represent 300,000 members whose votes will be split proportionally.
Unite 36%, Unison Cymru 18.7%, GMB 18.3%, USDAW 7.9%, CWU 5%, Community 3.6%, Wales Co-op Party 3.6%, NUM South Wales 1.8%, UCATT 1.8%, ASLEF 0.7%, Musicians Union 0.7%, BECTU 0.4%, TSSA 0.4%, Fabians 0.4%, Socialist Health Association 0.4%, Welsh Labour Students 0.4%
It’s worth noting that NUM South Wales has a direct influence on 0.6% of the total college.
Voting will close on November 26 with the result announced on December 1st.

Candidates
1) Carwyn Jones - AM for Bridgend and Consul General in the Administration. Built a good reputation for the excellent handing of the Food and Mouth crisis of 2001. Mr Jones is a fluent Welsh speaker and has served as
Agriculture and Education and Culture Minister in successive Welsh Administrations.
Here’s his Intro. He looks like a politician doesn’t he? He, in the past, has faced internal critiscism for being too close to nationalism. Hence he concludes his intro: “Like everyone else in the Labour Party I’m proud to be Welsh but also proud to be British”
+ves - Safe pair of hands, good on TV, experienced in the workings of Government.
-ves - there are rumours being spread of laziness. He has also received the endorsement of less AMs, 6 than Edwina Hart.
Here’s his Twittering Website -

2) Edwina Hart - AM for Gower and Health Minister in the Administration. Certainly industrious (we seem to re-organise the Health Service every other year) she also is honest. When she rejected the professional advice of health experts to centralise neurosurgery in the South in Cardiff instead of retaining a site in Swansea also she, refreshingly, defended the decision on political grounds. Edwina’s intro. I’ve always liked “Come Home” themes - Edwina appeals to the electorate to “Come Home to Labour”. Not a Welsh speaker although her great grandfather was a bard who published under the name of Dewi Samlet.
+ves - honest, industrious and the most popular nominee of the AMs with 8.
-ves - unpopular with MPs apparently and probably third in the Union vote.
Here’s Edwina’s twitter.

3) Huw Lewis - AM for Merthyr and a backbencher. Mr Lewis opposed the Lab-Plaid coalition and left the administration. He’s been careful to profess his loyalty and willingness to keep with the programme if successful. His wife, Lynne Neagle, is also an AM and one of his nominees. Best quote of the campaign so far from Ms Neagle:
“Now, there are three good candidates to choose from. Carwyn’s easy, affable manner is an attractive quality in the Assembly Chamber; Edwina’s decisive nature as Health Minister has been a valuable asset - but I don’t live with either of them.” - Cool.
Lewis is generally thought of as the most sceptical devo-enthusiast of the three. He’s quite convincing in his defence however. Anyway - Intro. - I quite liked “And I know these You Tube videos are always awful”. Mr Lewis is learning Welsh.
+ves - as the anti devolution element of Welsh Labour have nowhere else to go he’s got a core vote. He’s also quite a nice speaker which will go well in the hustings.
-ves - lowest number and lowest calibre of AM nominations. I also wonder if Rhodri Morgan, behind the scenes, might be briefing against Mr Lewis.
Nice website - busting the myths.

As a neutral it’s interesting to see how post devolution Welsh Labour adapt to the most challenging period in it’s history. Carwyn’s the favourite but I’m not as sure - one of the other two needs to shine to mount a real challenge but there’s plenty of time.

Many fine things about the man.
1) He’s funny:
Paxman: “Do you want to be First Minister?”
Morgan axiomatically: “Does a one legged duck swim in cirles?”
2) He’s a man of the people, in Welsh we’d say “Un o’r Werin”.
I moved to Cardiff from the Valleys about two years ago. On my first night I went on a wander and there in the corner of an old Docks pub bar was the First Minister with a pint in hand and not a bodyguard in sight.

He’s one of the few people who are know almost exclusively by their first name. Here’s Betsan on his personal popularity.

But here’s the rub. The most well known, charismatic and personally popular Welsh politician of his generation has overseen the destruction of the Welsh Labour hegemony. A hegomany once so strong that as late as the first Assembly elections of 1999 the BBC thought it proper to give as much election coverage to Labour as to the other parties put together.

Some facts
Labour MPs in 1999 - 34/40
Today 29/40
2010 Forecast from this morning’s Political Home poll 19/40

Labour Councillors:
1999 542/1234
2008 346/1234

Euro Election percentage
1999 31.9%
2009 20.3%

It’s certain that the demise of the mining industry has had an effect. Devolution and PR elections also produced a dynamic for the other parties in Wales.
Certainly nobody is blaming the Labour leader through this period!

A slight aside but it’s now virtually certain that, come next May, Rhodri’s successor will be the most important elected Labour politician in Britain. Hold that thought.

I’m more interested in how Adam can get into the Assembly as is Vaughan. (via GT). The man himself has yet to comment on his blog but has a go at everyone’s favourite - Peter Hain

Adam’s plan is fraught with dangerous risk. No current Plaid constituency AM is thought to be retiring so Adam could:
a) Seek nomination to fight a seat such as Neath or Carmarthen West. Winning either would not be straightforward (that’s the nomination never mind the seat!)
b) Stand for election as head of the top up list in South Wales West maybe. The risk here is that if Plaid win Neath then they might not win a top up AM.

I think he’ll go for Neath - it borders Carmarthen East, his current seat, and is an ex-mining valley - Adam’s from that tradition. To win the nomination and meet the people is spending the next year in the USA the best preparation?

Many of us hoped for a breakthrough in the Euros - it didn’t quite happen as Labour kept a grip on the Valleys and the Tories sneaked through. However a more detailed analyis reveals that Plaid won the following seats:
Arfon, Dwyfor Meirionydd, Ynys Môn, Aberconwy, Llanelli, Ceredigion and Carmarthen East and Dinefwr. (A slight qualification as Aberconwy effected by boundary changes next time). All are Plaid seats in the National Assembly.
What of General Election prospects?
Dwyfor Meirionydd and Carmarthen East in the bag. Arfon a notional Labour seat but with no Labour candidate in place yet and Ladbrokes quoting 1/10 on Plaid then Arfon seems safe also.
Four other targets therefore. One by one:
Ceredigion - this is going to be a real scrap.
A shock Lib Dem gain last time with a majority of 219. Plaid have been making progress since - now hold 20 of the 43 council seats. The Lib Dems approach last time was to target students (There are two universities, Aberystwyth and Lampeter, in the constituency)  with a promise of aboloshing University fees and the adoption of the more “modern” (hmm) Lib Dem electioneering methods. Penri James is the Plaid candidate challenging Mark Williams MP. Labrokes quote Plaid at 8/11 with Lib Dems evens,
Llanelli - an interesting trend is the seemingly inverse realtionship between the decline of Welsh as the lingua franca in much of Eastern Carmarthenshire and the advance of Plaid Cymru. The last local elections here showed an astonishing Plaid advance gaining 10 councillors whilst Labour lost 11. Ladbrokes still favour Labour’s Nia Griffiths to Plaid’s Dr Myfanwy Davies but the odds are tightening - latest - Lab 2/5, PC 7/4.
Aberconwy - a fascinating battle - whilst nominally a Labour seat the MP, Beti Williams, is retiring and coupled with an undoubted decline in Labour’s popularity generally the bookie’s odds of Tories 2/7,
PC 7/2 indicate a two horse race with Guto Bebb the favourite over Plaid’s Phil Edwards. Guto an ex-chair of Caernarfon Plaid Cymru and grandson of one of Plaid Cymru’s founders Ambrose Bebb..ah the irony…
Finally Ynys Môn - there are two types of people in the world:
i) Those who pretend to understand the politics of the island and
ii) those who don’t even pretend.
I’m in category i).....
The seat has been held by each of the four main parties since the war. That’s a strange enough fact but combined with the fact that no incumbent has lost since 1951 (Lloyd George’s daughter, Megan, lost to Cledwyn Hughes)
it becomes a pretty peculiar place. Plaid’s Dylan Rees favourite at 1/3 with Labour’s Albert Owen MP at 9/4. A strong independent candidate, ex Tory, Peter Rogers, willl poll well and destroy any potential Tory challenge but could also hurt Plaid. I won’t be betting.
Here’s the links to the UK Polling Reports on each seat:
Ynys Mon, Ceredigion, Aberconwy and Llanelli.

Next we have Gruffudd’s son, Rhys ap Gruffudd,  the most successful ruler of Deheubarth post the Norman invasion - Fantastic bloke. His pressure on the Norman lordships a key driver in the Norman desire to seek further lands in Ireland. Indeed at the request of the King of Leinster, Diarmait Mac Murchada, who had been driven out of his kingdom, he release Robert Fitz-Stephen from captivity to take part in the Irish adventure. John Davies (brilliant historian and one of the funniest blokes I’ve ever met) states succintly:
“Thus the sorrowful history of English involvement in Ireland has Welsh roots” Rhys died in 1197, the primary power in the whole of Wales.
Moving on Rhys’s sons were a pretty feckless bunch whose squabbling soon led to the loss of Deheubarth to Gwynedd and Normans. Of interest to our tale is his daughter Gwenllian (he called two of his daughters Gwenllian, a popular name in Wales at the time…). She married Ednyfed Fychan a decent soldier and “Distain” (sort of Prime Minister) of Llywelyn the Great of Gwynedd. He died in 1246 - his two sons continued to serve the House of Gwynedd until the last - Llywelyn the Last’s death in 1282. The family avoided extinction and came to terms with Longshanks - Ednyfed’s son Goronwys’s son Tudur Hen kept an estate of the family land in Penmynydd, Anglesey. Tudur was father to another Goronwy, who in turn fathered another Tudur (Fychan). His son Maredudd was the father of Owain ap Maredudd ap Tudur. A soldier for Henry V Owain entered the service of Henry’s widow, Catherine of Valois, on Henry’s death in 1422. Officially or unofficially married the angliscised Owen Tudor and the Queen had 6 kids - he was one of the early casualties of the Wars of the Roses - after defeat in battle in 1461 he was executed by beheading with the famous legendary last words “the head which used to lie in Queen Katherine’s lap, would now lie in the executioner’s basket”
...One more of these and I reckon I’ll be done….

Total Bull - but typical of his times
IC I must admit I thoroughly enjoy - lots of interesting anecdote. You can read many selections here. He describes how we were the original Trojans..Brilliant!!
DC a companion volume which includes one of the most famous speeches in Welsh history - that of the Old Man of Pencader to Henry II of England:
“This nation, O King, may now, as in former times be harassed, and in a great measure weakened and destroyed by you and other powers, and it will also prevail by its laudable exertions, but it can never be totally subdued through the wrath of man, unless the wrath of God shall concur. Nor do I think that any other nation than this of Wales, or any other language, whatever may hereafter come to pass, shall on the day of severe examination before the Supreme Judge, answer for this corner of the earth.”

2 kwl 4 skwl.

But we have always struggled to recruit and keep bloggers from the Unionist tradition (for some reason, nationalists have always seem more willing to ‘share’ their opinion on politics here). With the departure of Fair Deal for pastures new, we have a major space going for someone who is mainstream unionist opinion.

I have a queue of nationalists who want to blog on Slugger, but no unionists. I’ve had to put some of their kind offers on hold until such times as we can address the primary imbalance in the blogging team. If you’d like to like to get involved, .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) with a two or three sample pieces on any given subject regarding NI, GB or Europe…

On a related matter, we’re keen to pull in people who can give us a strong local perspective on Scottish, Welsh and European politics too.

I’m not particularly worried about impartiality, so much as the quality of analysis. One of things I know our readers value more than anything else is the multiplicity of views they can read in the one space. If you think you can help push Slugger develop its potential in responsibly holding the various democratic institutions to account, then .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address)...