The result has been a type of perfect storm with a collapsed property market bringing with it a sharp contraction in the economy and public finances that are badly in the red. Meanwhile the people who took out mortgages and other property-related loans during the boom years are left with their long-terms debts, while also being faced with the likelihood of increased income tax rates.

As well as claiming credit for running a “can do” low-tax entrepreneurial economy, the Government also has a tendency to point out that we have a debt to gross domestic product (GDP) ratio that is low compared to other European economies, putting us in a strong position for weathering the storm in which we now find ourselves.

But this, too, is a bogus claim to some extent. Much of the more wild borrowing by builders, property developers and property speculators that occurred during the boom will most likely never be paid back. Many ordinary mortgage holders will also not be able to pay their debts. The resultant hole in the finances of our banks is a problem that the taxpayer, via the exchequer, looks likely to have to fix. No one has as yet put a figure on this black hole but it will no doubt be huge.

Has anyone told Bertie?

Trimble’s leadership of the UUP was a triumph. This was the man who helped negotiate a new devolved form of government: he managed to move his party from opposition to power sharing and into the leadership of devolved government. He himself, managed to move from being the rather prickly, difficult, highly intelligent academic and sometime Drumcree marcher to being an internationally respected leader, welcomed at the White House and recipient of a Nobel Peace prize. He then went on to pioneer moving the UUP out of sectarian Northern Ireland politics and to a new future where “Decent People Vote(d) Ulster Unionist” and the UUP was “for all of us” and “Simply British.”

Of course then there is the reality: Trimble was the most unbelievably appalling negotiator; even his own supporters gave up any pretence of believing his assorted lines in the sand. He complained and complained and then failed to stop concession after concession to republicans. He was lauded by assorted people outwith Northern Ireland and indeed congratulated by Gerry Adams within it. He then presided over the most flawless destruction of a political party in recent British history, taking his count of seats from 10 to 1 in only two general elections; assisted by a manifesto which the 1983 Labour party would have regarded as inept.

Why do I bring all that back up again?

I am concerned that the spring in the New Force’s step is in part based on the favourable attention which they have received amongst moderate unionist politicos. These usually very nice, highly intelligent and well educated people from the Pale see themselves as “simply British” and as non sectarian, reasonable people. The sad reality for them is, however, that most people in Northern Ireland are less interested in politics. I am unconvinced that terribly many will see this new force as anything terribly exciting, fronted as it is by the same rather tired and indeed sad UUP leadership. Many middle class unionists within the Pale are not that moderate (I used to be one). Also moving outside the Pale the simple reality is that non tribal politics is not viable out west where there be dragons and I see little sign of it in the north of Northern Ireland where the Presbyterians of North Antrim and Orangemen of East Londonderry are unlikely to be easily convinced.

The New Force clearly wishes to attract pro union Roman Catholics: again a very laudable aim but again one which Trimble tried in the past. The New Force’s supporters can of course counter that they have lost the baggage of Trimble’s jig up the Garvaghy Road: but he had pretty comprehensively dumped that years before and the pro union Catholics showed little inclination to ride to his rescue on 23rd May 2005. In addition the senior UUP leaders who were there when Trimble performed political voluntary euthanasia on himself and involuntary euthanasia on his party are still there; convincing large numbers of nationalists and pro union RCs of their completely non sectarian nature may be difficult.

Another potential problem is the apparent slight differences between the two parties in this match made in heaven. Even leaving aside Sylvia Hermon (their only significant politician who can legitimately claim to have defeated a DUP candidate) there do seem to be some subtle differences between the UUP and the Conservatives. These are differences which may become more evident during an election campaign and will undoubtedly be mercilessly exploited by their opponents. It must be remembered that the public do not like divided political parties: again one need only look back to Trimble’s leadership to remember that for much of his time he had internal opposition and that air of division and uncertainty is always politically corrosive.

The other thing which worries me for the New Force is the appearance of shiny English Tory types. I know I have discussed this before but I do feel at times that some in the UUP are bewitched by a bit of Received Pronunciation, ideally along with a public school education and an Oxbridge degree. I well remember many of us the same age as Steven King suggesting that although he was hard working, intelligent and affable; the fact that he was popular with the media especially in GB and RoI did not mean his ideas were going to take the UUP to heroic successful glory (unless one regards the Charge of the Light Brigade in that context). Again I fear that the New Force could be bewitched by party advisors etc. brought in by the mainland Tories. These people are extremely good at their job; however, that job is in England (and to a limited extent in Wales and an even lesser one in Scotland). They use things like polling data and such like which are notoriously inaccurate in Northern Ireland. Much as the New Force supporting denizens of the Pale may wish it: in electoral terms Ulster is not the same as Finchley.

There is a danger that the New Force is repeating exactly the same mistakes as Trimble’s UUP did: by focusing on and listening to themselves and sympathetic politicos and journalists; believing their own propaganda and spin and losing sight of their own electorate. By doing this they may manage to alienate a considerable proportion of their core support and yet pick up very few new voters: just because they think that they are presenting a “New Force” does not mean that the Northern Ireland electorate will agree with them. It is of course possible that this New Force may break the mould of NI politics; alternatively it may have no effect or even decrease Jim Nicholson’s chances of election. Clearly I am biased but there is a warning from recent history.

Tracking devices were attached to vehicles in a bid to monitor the disposal of waste, after the Environment Agency received apparently incorrect advice from the Home Office

But whatever he says now, David Cameron won’t be protecting essential rights if he introduces a new British Bill which alters the essentials of the Human Rights Act, which domesticated the European Convention on Human Rights. 

The Tory leader in a written statement for today’s Convention on Modern Liberty promises that a Conservative government would replace the Human Rights Act with a British bill of rights to “better tailor, but also strengthen, the protection of our core rights.”

The Constitution Unit says: “The two main parties remain wary ofthe HRA. However neither is likely to depart from the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR). For both parties if for different reasons, a Bill of Rights and Responsibilities may yet become the instrument to embed a rights culture in the fertile soil of the British constitution and civil liberties tradition.

BTW, the draft Northern Ireland HR Bill is said to be emerging soon. Has anyone got as squint at it yet? So far, I’ve drawn a blank. Hopefully we’ll hear more after today’s Convention on Modern Liberty, ( Queen’s session). 

Unsurprisingly Martin McGuinness has dismissed any move towards any form of voluntary coalition as it amounts (according to him) to unionist majority rule. What Paterson seems to be saying may well be sensible from a unionist point of view and I have little doubt is not actually a proposal to return to majority rule. It is also what Peter Robinson has been advocating for some time. However, unless the world changes a great deal to do this from within the current structures would be impossible due to Sinn Fein having a veto.

Paterson may feel that the Fifth Force is proposing this from a different starting point from the DUP and as such it would be acceptable to nationalists due to his new organisation’s non sectarian nature. It is, however, far too early days to even contemplate saying such a thing no matter the caveats of “this could be years away” and I am afraid this may simply be used by SF as “proof” that the New Force is not remotely new. 

Paterson is, however, correct in feeling that the current structures do not provide a normal democratic arrangement and indeed are self evidently useless. Unfortunately for both Paterson and the DUP the only way to introduce a more sensible mechanism of power sharing would be to tear the whole thing down and start again. Paterson should know this to be the case and as such his latest intervention is, I am afraid, pretty pointless. Unless that is, it is an attempt to attract TUV 2nd preferences by a very subtle form of masquerading as a hard line unionist / integrationalist aiming destroy the agreement? That is too cynical surely?

Redemption’s Son comments:

“From my understanding, or at least what I have been led to believe, this is not the case. It was agreed to run as Ulster Conservatives and Unionists. There is a reason for this, and whether the editor believes so or not, he is out of order to actively pursue an agenda that jeopardises the goodwill between the UUP and the Conservative Party. From the comments it looks like the Editor is up to his old tricks of selective censorship and self praise.

“Idiotic behaviour as demonstrated by those in the Conservative Party who are either enabling this counter-productive activity or are turning a blind eye to it must be stopped at once. All this will achieve is a reaction that will be pounced upon by the detractors of the ‘New Force’ of rifts appearing.”

On the name change

Given the fact that people over the age of fifty generally vote UUP how will the party seek to educate their older voters in the name change as the first some may find out about it is when they visit the ballot box wondering ... ‘now wheres that UUP?’ - a party that has been on the ballot paper ever since the establishment of Northern Ireland.

Former Black Panther and Black Liberation Army member Ashanti Alston is to speak in the Culturlann next week as part of a speaking tour of Ireland.

Ashanti known as the ‘anarchist panther’ was a member of the Black Panther Party in the 1960s and the early 1970s. As a political prisoner Ashanti spent over a decade in US prisons and since became an anarchist while still drawing on many of his experiences and ideas that spurred him on as a Black Panther activist.

Ashanti remains a community activist in New Jersey and in recent years has spoke in several cities across the United States said:
“I am delighted to be embarking on this tour across Ireland ending in Liberty Hall on March 7 for the Dublin Anarchist Bookfair, especially whenever everyone is suffering from Obamamania at the moment.

I have always wanted to visit Belfast as I was influenced by the struggle here particularly during the civil rights era and hope to share my experiences in the struggle for social change.”

WSM spokesperson Michael McGovern added: “We are delighted to be hosting this talk as we have a lot to learn from the Black Panthers in terms of their successful community programmes. In times of growing inequality, unemployment and bankers being bailed out the need for a revolutionary transformation of society is as relevant as it was in the 1960s.”

The upcoming talk, which is free, takes place on Tuesday, March 3 at 7pm at the Culturlann Gallery room), 216 Falls Road, West Belfast.

Also live interview with Belfast radio show The Fourth World War, Feile FM on Monday, March 3 at 6.30pm.
Féile FM 103.2 or on line at http://www.feilefm.com

“The placing of the Irish language on the logo of Limavady Council was done so in the 2001 and 2005 term as an issue of equality. No objections were raised at that time and the logo is present on council property and vehicles.
Recently the logo on the council uniforms was updated to standardize the boroughs imagery. This is no threat to anyone or their identity. The two languages on the logos are representative of the people on this island and should be seen as such.
For a small group of workers, roughly 20 out of 170 employees, to register their protest is their prerogative however it must be stressed that the logo is inclusive and holds no political connotations. To believe this to be so is mistaken and I am happy to meet with those council workers who object to Irish being on their uniforms to hear their position.”

Sinn Féin councillor Cathal Ó‘hOisín said it is a matter of equality.

“The draft policy is currently out for equality impact assessment, and consultation work is going on and that will continue through the month of March. We’ll look then at what the reaction is and the impact that it has had,”

It is unclear how enthusiastic the workers will be to meet either Mr. Ó‘hOisín or Mr. Brolly.

It was incredibly complicated.  Transferring money between Northern and Southern branches of the Bank of Ireland without punitive charges was impossible. The mass of conflicting information from mobile phone providers made my head spin. The purchase of car insurance was slowed by computers snagging on information from the South, and ridiculous sub-regulations that made it impossible for my wife to drive my Northern-registered car. Fellow Southerners told me to make sure that my children did not have an accident during a visit north for fear of exorbitant hospital charges. I concluded the article with a despairing cry: “Is it beyond the wit of financial institutions, telephone companies and health boards to start clearing the bureaucratic minefields which continue to litter this now largely peaceful territory?”

Nine years on I thought I would re-visit some of these problematic areas to see if there had been any progress. I was pleasantly surprised that the position re-mobile phones and car insurance seems to have got much better. Not surprisingly, the banking situation remains complicated, with some banks having improved while some - believe it or not - have actually got worse.

International mobile phone charges remain utterly impenetrable to most ordinary customers. However the companies assured me that everything had changed radically across the Irish border. O2 pointed to an announcement on their website dating from 2006 which promised that customers making previously costly ‘roaming’ calls (i.e. calls near the border that inadvertently connect to a network in the other jurisdiction) would not incur such charges in the future. At the same time the company announced an all-island ‘pre-pay’ flat rate for calls and texts. The website said ‘post-paid’ customers had been paying the same rate for cross-border calls as for domestic (i.e. own jurisdiction) calls since 2003.

A young man in the Vodafone head office in Dublin informed me that Vodafone in the Republic and Northern Ireland had reached an agreement that they would charge “the same price for calls between Belfast and Dublin as between Dublin and Waterford.” All I had to do was to ring Vodafone in Northern Ireland and get the “international bar” on my mobile “unbarred.”

[I have to say that I didn’t actually test these statements myself. I took the decision nine years ago to have a Southern mobile phone for my calls from the South and a Northern mobile for my calls from the North, and have stuck with that safe, old-fashioned option ever since. I would be interested in other regular cross-border travellers’ experience of using mobile phones.]

Car insurance couldn’t have been easier. By quoting my Irish driving licence, the make of my Northern car, and the postcode in my Northern address – and assuring her that both my wife and I had ‘no claims’ bonuses in the South – the same Armagh insurance broker I had such difficulty with nine years earlier was able within five minutes to give me a very competitive rate of £269 for a year’s comprehensive insurance covering both me and my wife.

The banks were a different story². The worst was the Bank of Ireland, which nine years ago was proposing to charge £6 per cross-border transaction (via bank draft), had now raised this to an exorbitant £25 for a ‘telegraphic transfer’. First Trust Bank (a sister bank of AIB) offered the same high-charge same day transfer, or a £14 charge for a Euro draft which I would then have to post myself. Ulster Bank said a cross-border BACS transaction would cost £25, but helpfully added that if I wanted to pay a cheque into a branch in the North, the bank would use its internal mail system to transfer it to an Ulster Bank branch in Dublin on the following day at no extra cost.

Perhaps the most improved banks of all are the two which since 2005 have been part of the Danish Danske Bank Group: Northern Bank and National Irish Bank. If you trust online banking, you can now transfer money electronically between these two banks free of charge, whereas before there would have been a cross-border change of €10 in the South and £12 in the North.

However having a good Scandinavian IT platform doesn’t mean the bad old Irish banking habits of indifference to the ordinary customer have disappeared. Attracted by this new cross-border offer, I went into a large NIB branch in Dublin recently to inquire about opening a savings account with a relatively sizeable amount of money. I have to say that the official behind the counter couldn’t have been less interested. Andy Pollak 1 I’ve got those cross-border blues March 2000, Irish Times 2 For a comparison of cross-border personal banking charges see Border People Wrap up...

From the revised recommendations [pdf file]

For the most part the boundaries of the new districts are as set out in my Provisional Recommendations. The main change is between the Mid Ulster and the Armagh City, Banbridge and Craigavon districts where the new boundary follows the line of the River Blackwater, this being a more readily identifiable boundary. The other change is between the Mid and East Antrim and the Antrim and Newtownabbey districts where the whole of the campus of Belfast High School, together with some nearby residential development, is brought within the latter district. Two other small changes are proposed, namely, that two townlands near Rathfriland should not transfer to the Newry City, Mourne and Down district and that the Belfast boundary at Tullycarnet should be adjusted to reflect new development on the ground.

Having regard to the desirability that there should be a proper representation of the rural and urban electorate within a district, I am proposing to increase the number of wards in two districts to 41. The two districts are Armagh City, Banbridge and Craigavon, and Newry City, Mourne and Down. Apart from that, I am confirming my Provisional Recommendations that Belfast should have 60 wards and the remaining councils should have 40 wards.

Blacker
Instant, chatty communication conveys a sense of chumminess; it makes the world of politics somehow warmer, more approachable. That may seem like a harmless development – why shouldn’t politicians want to seem more normal and human? – but the events of this week have shown where it can lead. On Wednesday, three soldiers were killed by an explosion in Afghanistan; a fourth died of injuries sustained on Monday. On the evening television news, these deaths were reported briefly, and well down the running order.

Of course, the death of this little boy was an unspeakable family tragedy for the Camerons, but there was something faintly suspect about this open emoting in the mother of parliaments.

Parris
The case for full-blown statements from William Hague, the Prime Minister, Vince Cable and the Speaker was not evident to me; a single sentence from each would have been enough. And there was no case at all for suspending Prime Minister’s Questions.

When the House gets going on anything touching human tragedy, it can work itself up into something disturbingly close to relish. I’m sorry to say that; but I’ve seen it too often over the years not to recognise the habit. Magnanimity in another’s loss flows easily.”

Me  It would have been impossible to stage the usual Punch and Judy show featuring,  in Cameron’s absence, the understudies Harman and Hague. Gordon Brown could not then have made his moving statement of condolence and the omission would have been glaring.  MPs had no stomach for knockabout.. But that may be as much a comment on the PMQs ritual, as it is on the human tragedy.