Tomorrow is the 92nd anniversary of the Battle of the Somme. I will not go over the brutal details of that awful battle, I suspect most people know a little of them. The ongoing resonance of the First World War in these islands is interesting and worth having a look at.
There is clearly the particular relevance that this war has for people who live on this island: many nationalists and unionists volunteered (remember that there was no conscription throughout Ireland) and fought at times side by side. There is also of course the iconic status of the Easter Rising for nationalists and republicans and the equally iconic status of the Somme for unionists.
Understanding the at times collective near obsession with the First World War throughout GB and Ireland is complicated. The ongoing years and the now so few people left who remember anything about it; let alone the (maybe only two) very few remaining who fought: Harry Patch and Henry Allingham might make people think it would fade from memory only to be remembered by historians professional or amateur and the armed forces. However, this has not happened and interest in the First World War has remained high.
I have heard it suggested that this is in part because it was a war which we, looking back, cannot understand. The rise of Hitler etc. and the Second World War can be understood but why the First World War broke out is so extremely complex. Obviously many of you will be able to explain the assassination of Arch Duke Franz Ferdinand and indeed the nature of the rivalries between the imperial powers. Whilst factually this may explain the road to war it seems inadequate to explain the cataclysm which was to follow. The pictures of people so delighted and cheering the announcement of war, many of whom were to die in it also seems so bizarre and unfathomable to us now. This ambiguity as to why we went to war and the feeling that all those young men on both sides lost their lives for so little reason may well both fascinate us and make us feel in some way if not guilty, at least uneasy.
Added to that is the sheer scale of the then UKs losses (almost one million) to which must be added the losses of the other nations of the empire. The numbers of mainly young men who died and were wounded on both sides is truly staggering. The apparently needless and ineffectual nature of many of those deaths is also important. The apparent pointlessness of many of the attacks during which men holding rifles charged (or walked) towards lines of barbed wire and machine guns is quite horrifying.
These factors together may help explain the dreadful iconic status that the war had and still retains. I have heard the reaction to it compared to, (for British and Irish people) a combination of the American reactions to the American Civil War (in terms of causalities) and the Vietnam War (in terms of peoples ambiguity regarding the reasons for fighting it).
An additional peculiarly British and Protestant analysis I have heard and read is that as Protestants are not meant to pray for the dead and indeed personal salvation requires personally accepting Christ. As such we fear that many of these young men went to a lost eternity and there is nothing at all we can now do for them. In this context the war memorials become altars, those laying the wreaths the priests, the wreaths become the sacrifice and we feel that we are almost allowed to pray for the souls of those who died. This analysis may well have had significant relevance in the immediate aftermath of the war.
Whatever the truth of the above this dreadful war almost one hundred years ago is of great significance even today.
In closing I want to mention one hero of that war whom I hope all can honour for his courage. He is William McFadzean. On the morning of the 1st of July 1916 he was in a trench when a box of grenades was spilled and the pins came out of two. McFadzean threw himself on top of the grenades and was killed but due to his heroic and selfless actions only one of his comrades was injured. Finally a mention that Dr. Paisley has been to lay a wreath at the grave of William Redmond killed at the Battle of Messines.
There have been a couple of articles in the Newsletter on Divine healing recently and I thought this might be an interesting time to look at a particular part of our religious sub culture.
The services in question have involved the Pastor Brian Madden of Tigers Bay Elim Pentacostal Church and a Bobby Sullivan from Canada who has also been at the church where a number of people report miraculous healing.
Many traditional Christians (including fairly fundamentalist types like myself) become very uncomfortable when this issue is mentioned. It tends to summon up images of people making claims of the ability to heal / having been healed, though it is worth noting that Mr. Sullivan seems very keen to ascribe credit to God and not to himself. Of course sceptics and atheists will dismiss such things but for Christians (especially fundamentalists) to do so seems odd: after all if one believes in the literal truth of the bible there are multiple episodes of people being healed and indeed raised from the dead by our Lord but also by assorted other persons in both the Old and New Testament.
A current Presbyterian minister who has been involved in Divine healing Rev. Stephen Williamson has also counselled caution over one recent claim of a man coming back from the dead and others have also warned of possible deception.
The Presbyterian Church has had a Divine Healing Committee (Presbyterians have committees for everything) and for many years its convener was one of our local ministers. I remember him talking about this issue and being very insistent that he had seen people healed but being even more insistent that he had no healing gifts. He would pray for people and indeed was willing to place his hands on them if they requested it but always denied any gift or power and, rightly or wrongly, studiously avoided publicity. The Reformed Presbyterian Church takes what is technically called a dispensationalist position and believes that gifts such as healing have ceased basing this on this passage from 1st Corinthians 13 v. 8 Charity never faileth: but whether there be prophecies, they shall fail; whether there be tongues, they shall cease; whether there be knowledge, it shall vanish away. The Independent Methodists have a relatively similar line to the Presbyterians. I am uncertain regarding the Roman Catholic position on these issues but it appears not vastly different to that of the mainstream Protestant denominations. I believe that at Lourdes for example there is always a doctor present in an attempt to establish the veracity of any episodes of miraculous healing. Most of the mainstream churches are extremely cautious about anyone saying that they have been given any healing gifts.
As well as the problem of deception noted above there is also the problem that some illnesses are self limiting and may get better themselves after a time: these include things like ME, other diseases are inherently episodic in their nature like epilepsy and yet others are what is technically called remitting / relapsing. In all these cases an improvement, which was ascribed to miraculous means, could actually be simply part of the natural progression of the illness. Even a small number of cancers and some forms of heart disease do occasionally show spontaneous remission. Equally, however, believers would argue that these cases are examples of Divine Healing; in addition there are a number of cases which medical science has been unable to explain. To Christians this is seen as an example of Divine Healing whilst to atheists it would simply be a phenomenon which has not yet, but may well one day be found to have a rational explanation. I suppose it is really a matter of belief.
Just received this from Republican Sinn Fein as retort to Martin McGuinness’s statement on the Politics Show yesterday. Predictable perhaps, but worth noting nonetheless:
Martin McGuinness’ claims that those opposed to English rule in Ireland wish to force the Provos’ former military wing back onto a military footing are laughable, said a spokesperson for Republican Sinn Féin.
Republicans have no desire to see the Provisionals resume hostilities, as these would undoubtedly be conducted against those who have remained faithful to the Republican ideal. The Provos retained their military capacity through the adoption of the RUC as their armed wing. There is absolutely no useful purpose for the continued existence of the so-called ‘Provisional Army Council’, said RSF Director of Publicity, Richard Walsh.
We already know that statements purporting to emanate from that body in fact originated from 10, Downing Street. They exist merely as a counter-revolutionary force.
Whilst dwelling on green matters, I’d like to revisit my entry Green Sammy’s Debut 1. A few days after publishing it a reader pointed out that our Minister’s signature wasn’t on Early Day Motion 893 dealing with “Rainforests and Climate Change.” I thought I must be going crazy as I was sure I had spotted it. After checking with the parliamentary authorities, though, I gather that Sammy did sign the EDM. Clicking on the button which allows you to switch from “Open Signatures” to “All Signatures” reveals his name, and the Commons tell me this means he withdrew his signature (apparently on 26th June, 3 days after I published the blog).
A few months ago The Watchman provided a pair of extremely interesting articles on Dr. Paisley and the DUP entitled When the chuckling had to stop and The unbuckling of the Bible Belt. They are well worth re-reading as they provide an excellent insight into anti agreement unionist thinking. Subsequently Fair_Deal produced what to my mind is the finest piece of unionist political analysis on this web site in his blog Telling a new story.
It might be worth revisiting chuckling especially in view of the new at least less superficially friendly relationship between SF and the DUP. Brian Walker has pointed out the recent speech by Adams again raising the possibility of collapse of the institutions whilst fair_deal has noted the latest DUP idea which is far from openly conciliatory.
It has become an accepted fact amongst politicos that chuckling helped end Paisleys tenure as First Minister; as such to suggest that it was a potentially good idea seems barmy. Much more sensible to ascribe it to Paisleys foolishness and self importance or maybe somehow imply that it is an example of him becoming demented, the fact that he is a man with absolutely no other sign of such a thing being conveniently ignored. Alternatively (and I have done this) one could ascribe it to Paisleys known personal friendliness, which is widely documented and can probably be vouched for a surprising number and range of people in Northern Ireland possibly including some sluggerites.
To try to see a political reason behind chuckling one might do worse than go back to the days when Trimble was First and Mallon Deputy First Minister. Clearly Trimble had many problems: he had a party of which only about 60% backed him, he had Republicans failing to decommission, he faced pressure to back track on every stand he took by the government, he had the DUP gaining momentum and he was not a man noted for interpersonal skills. However, his constant look of almost pain at what was happening was often seen to show that he knew he was being out manoeuvred and defeated. Many within unionism felt that he (and in the process unionists in general) were losing and that the inexorable decline towards a united Ireland continued with Trimble merely helping to manage rather than arrest let alone reverse this process. Trimble did little in his speeches or interviews to suggest that he felt he had won but also (and maybe most relevant to the chuckling that was to come) his body language was extremely poor. I know I have mentioned it recently but he did always remind me of the defeated Shylock Send the deed after me, And I will sign it (Merchant of Venice IV, i).
Paisley in marked contrast to Trimble is a master of public speaking, a true orator; anyone who doubts me should go along to the Martyrs. Even now in his old age he can speak brilliantly and he understands the nuances of language and actions. The fact that Paisley (to my analysis) had sold out his principles to almost a greater extent than Trimble simply made the need for an act the more vital.
As such I submit that Paisleys chuckling was all about the perception he wished to put on the deal. It was an attempt to say, whatever about the U turns, that actually through him The Big Man unionism had truly defeated its enemy; that so complete was his victory that he could smile and chuckle with McGuinness. He may have felt that it showed that he Paisley could pose for friendly photos the way one might with a muzzled and caged crocodile. Not for Paisley the look of pain and the voices off saying that he was failing to sell the agreement to his own people.
Of course if that was Paisleys idea it shows that not for the first time he miscalculated. He may have felt that such was his popularity amongst unionists, especially the fundamentalist wing of the DUP that he could sell the deal U turns and all. His errors were two fold: he was mistaken in thinking that people had enough belief in him to overlook the U turns. Secondly he forgot just how reviled Martin McGuinness was and is within many unionist circles and how apparent friendship with that man would be far too much for many ordinary unionists who blamed McGuinness and his ilk for the many times they had walked behind the coffins of friends and relatives. This was not helped by Paisleys tendency betimes to adopt a different position and like Trimble admit that all in the unionist garden was not that rosy and claim that plan B stalked outside the hedges.
The dichotomy between the victorious and magnanimous Paisley and the man who was forced to compromise was a fatal flaw in the chuckling strategy. Whether of course this Janus-headed approach was any worse than Trimbles Shylockian one is of course debatable: both ultimately failed.
What Robinsons approach will be is interesting: it is still developing but seems to be an attempt to combine the irritation and distain of Trimble with the studied victorious-ness of Paisley. That will be a hard act to pull off.
To finish by referring to Shakespeare (I know it annoys some of you): if Trimble was King Richard II, a rather weak and vacillating individual, could Paisley have been Henry IV described in my copys introduction as A usurper himself, Henry IV has no ground on which to base his authority over the rebels who were once his allies. The only basis of his power is victory on the battlefield. In each part this is achieved by means of a trick. To continue my analogy does Robinson see himself as Henry V the great ruler who defeats the French. He might do but personally I am rather doubtful he is.
All three of those accused of the Robert McCartney murder have been acquitted. The dead man’s sister Catherine noted that “we hadn’t got very high expectations. As a lay person sitting in that court listening to the evidence we have heard, would I have put someone away on that evidence? No. I wouldn’t have so I can’t expect the judge to do so.”
The job of a criminal court is simple: to decide whether the accused is guilty, or not guilty. Given the history of miscarriages of justice in the context of Northern Ireland it is preferable that there should be no danger of an unsafe conviction. Resistance to strong public opinion, one way or the other, is another commendable trait from a judge, who under the Diplock system does not have the restraining power of a jury to contend with.
But it leaves the relatives as far from justice as they were the night Mr McCartney was killed in a side street beside McGennis’ pub in late January 2005.
What we know for sure is that a man was killed after a ruck inside the pub. That the bar was packed with people from Sinn Fein and the IRA (some of whom lied about their presence there, but later had to retract). That the IRA conducted an ‘inquiry’ that found three unnamed volunteers guilty and later made the sisters an offer to shot them. It may also have expelled a unquantified number of others. But nothing about the process except its final judgement has been subject to external scrutiny.
Sinn Fein invited all the sisters and McCartney’s girlfriend to its annual conference that year. Gerry Adams, party President addressed the knotty problem of the IRA and it’s position viz a viz the legal system: “I do not believe that the IRA can be wished away, or ridiculed or embarrassed or demonised or repressed out of existence.” Catherine McCartney records more of the same speech in her eloquent retelling of her sister’s story Walls of Silence:
His murder was dreadful, not only because of the way he died and not only because it robbed his family of a father, a parter, a brother, a son. His murder was dreadful because it is alleged that republicans were involved in it. That makes this a huge issue for us.
Even at the time, the sisters were not so sure. Not least since Adams went on to qualify these remarks a few moments later by underwriting the extra legal political purposes of the IRA:
“We know what a crime is both in the moral and legal sense, and our view is the same as the majority of people. We know that breaking the law is a crime. But we refuse to criminalise those who break the law in pursuit of legitimate political objectives.”
Indeed most of the complications around this case were political. From the start Sinn Fein was desperate to remove the police from the equation. It’s first official statement came in the form of an attack on the follow up operation by the police from former Lord Mayor of Belfast Alex Maskey. The following day he attacked rival politicians for suggesting that:
...republicans are in some way covering up the events of Sunday night and orchestrating the recent trouble on the streets of the Markets. These allegations are clearly untrue and without foundation. There is no cover up and no orchestration of street violence. That is why none of these individuals have been able to produce one scrap of evidence to back up their claims.
It was the first of a series of attempts to draw a line in the sand which failed as more evidence came to light. Politically the timing of the killing was bad. The IRA’s denials over the Northern Bank gone largely unbelieved. And McCartney’s murder had come not long after the breakdown of a comprehensive agreement that might have enabled the party to recognise of the police.
So on the night of the 31st January 2005 the whole Republican movement, Sinn Fein as well as the IRA were still (politically) on the wrong side of the rule of law.
In the end, despite a huge number of pious messages from both the IRA and Sinn Fein, the only witnesses to take the stand were two survivors of the attack, and a woman driver (Witness ‘C’) who was simply passing by. Witnesses A and B refused to take the stand, because even the anonymity being offered by the court was not enough to make them feel safe enough to testify.
No one - neither current or former members - from the Republican movement (including the defendants) took the witness stand.
Martin McGuinness yesterday told the Politics Show that there would likely be more developments in this case. The sisters are convinced there won’t be. Witnesses have been scared off, evidence disposed of. Short of a fulsome confession by the killer himself (highly unlikely), the sisters are much closer to the truth than the Deputy First Minister.
Robert McCartney’s murder was short, brutal and entirely without any political cause. It may not have been politicially inspired, but it caused Sinn Fein huge political embarrassment. It also pointed to a wider problem within so-called republican communities. At the time, Brendan O’Neill writing in Spiked Online observed:
In an attempt to rein the crisis in, Adams seems willing even to upset his colleagues in the IRA by taking a hard line over criminality and the McCartney murder. But where he and the IRA might succeed in resolving the McCartney affair and appeasing the grieving McCartney family, they can do little to stem the wider moral disintegration of republican communities in Northern Ireland. The McCartney murder acted as a catalyst for a deeper malaise within post-republican republican communities.
That moral disintegration has continued since. Now even people firmly lodged within the ‘green zone’ of Mr McGuinness’s own movement are becoming the victims. Three men in the last few months have been killed in Belfast and Derry, the latest being 23 year old Emmet Sheils. The grief of his father and mother is as palpable as that of the sisters.
Martin McGuinness has told the killers that they don’t have a mandate for what they are doing. That they have come to a fork in the road, and it is now time to decide whether they are for a peaceful future, or not. But there is no reference to McGuinness’s own journey from gunman to junior statesman.
From the beginning, the peace process was a behaviorist project. It was never as interested in genuine changes of hearts and minds, as it was in outward behaviours. Moral conciousness and other forms introspection were of little interest - and possibly of little practical use - to a society conditioned to profoundly self harming behaviour.
The murder of Robert McCartney, along with Sinn Fein’s and the IRA’s subsequent attempts to cover up the truth of what went on that night (although there are still some who believe there was no such ‘cover up’), marked an end to the convenience of that conceit. But it hasn’t brought an end to the suffering of families in Sinn Fein’s own political heartland.
The peace process ultimately took away the IRA’s weapon of choice. Now it is the victim of a feral society its own unchecked and brutalist approach to ‘policing’ helped create. The wider movement, now led by a party determined on peace needs to find a way of acquiring new habits of mind to go with its new political status.
But as Aristotle has noted, it is often difficult for an individual to become virtuous if he or she has not acquired the habit of acting virtuously. The same may be said for political parties. Sinn Fein, reconciled at long last to a peaceful pursuit of its long term goal of a United Ireland, has, it seems, still to learn the power of the virtuous act.
And that may yet prove the movement’s long term undoing.
On the 30th June 1908 at around 7.17am, “a large space rock, about 120 feet across, entered the atmosphere of Siberia and then detonated in the sky” levelling approximately 80 million trees over 800 square miles. The remoteness of the site meant that few if any people died in the Tunguska event itself - but that wouldn’t have been the case if it had happened over a major city. The BBC article quotes Armagh Observatory’s Mark Bailey, “Everything within the M25 would have been wiped out”. At the time dust from the fireball resulted in bright night skies over Europe - “In London, it was possible to read newspapers and play cricket outdoors at midnight.” Near Earth Objects are now the subject of extensive study, while the University of Bologna website has a dedicated area on all things Tunguskan. Back to the NASA articleAdds NASA have a podcast version [mp3 file] of the article here.
While the impact occurred in ‘08, the first scientific expedition to the area would have to wait for 19 years. In 1921, Leonid Kulik, the chief curator for the meteorite collection of the St. Petersburg museum led an expedition to Tunguska. But the harsh conditions of the Siberian outback thwarted his team’s attempt to reach the area of the blast. In 1927, a new expedition, again lead by Kulik, reached its goal. “At first, the locals were reluctant to tell Kulik about the event,” said Yeomans. “They believed the blast was a visitation by the god Ogdy, who had cursed the area by smashing trees and killing animals.”
And the NASA article ends by noting the expected frequency of such events..
[Don] Yeomans and his colleagues at JPL’s Near-Earth Object Office are tasked with plotting the orbits of present-day comets and asteroids that cross Earth’s path, and could be potentially hazardous to our planet.
Yeomans estimates that, on average, a Tunguska-sized asteroid will enter Earth’s atmosphere once every 300 years. On this 100th anniversary of the Tunguska event, does that mean we have 200 years of largely meteor-free skies?
“Not necessarily,” said Yeomans. “The 300 years between Tunguska-sized events is an average based on our best science. I think about Tunguska all the time from a scientific point of view, but the thought of a another Tunguska does not keep me up at night.”
Robert Mugabe was sworn in at a ceremony on Sunday at which he promised talks with the opposition; talks which the MDC seem willing to participate in but sound less than optimistic about:
“Mr Mugabe has a sweet tongue but sour actions,” Nelson Chamisa, a spokesman for the MDC, told the BBC. But when all is said and done, there has to be dialogue about a transitional period that would lead to a free and fair election. The politicians of this country need to set aside their egos and think of the future of this country. We need to put a full stop on our people’s suffering,” he said.
Mugabe himself has gone to the meeting of the Africa Union, whose monitors condemned the election, as did the Southern African Development Communitys. A number of possible scenarios have been postulated.
The actions of the South African government are critical and the very likely new South African president Jacob Zuma seems to be willing to adopt a harder line than Thabo Mbeki.
SADC whose chief mediator is Mbeki has its origins in the anti apartheid struggle. There is of course another historic parallel between South Africas role now and its role in the end of Rhodesia. The end of Ian Smiths Rhodesian regime was largely brought about by, if not economic sanctions, economic unhelpfulness masterminded by South African PM Voster and his withdrawal of South African ground troops and military aircraft, which up until that time had helped the Rhodesians. Smith was extremely popular amongst white South Africans and Voster of course ran a more racist and discriminatory regime than Smith. As such continuing to assist Smith would have seemed more likely. However, Voster felt that pressurising Smith would reduce pressure on him from other African states and also please the Western powers.
It will be interesting to see whether the South African government will play the same part with Mugabe as Apartheid South Africa did with Rhodesia.
The Irish Times has a fascinatingly enigmatic statement from Peter Robinson. As CP Scott famously said, ‘comment is free, but facts are sacred’. It is a falsifiable fact that the 8th May was a target date, as the DUP claimed, and not, as Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness have, until recently contended, an enforceable deadline. Nevertheless, this looks like an agreement to take the discussion forward. Indeed, the statement harks back to a theme within Robinson’s maiden speech and points to the role of party leaders, other than himself and Gerry Adams. It may be an attempt to shift the debate from whether and when there will be devolution of policing and justice powers, to the question of to whom they should be devolved.
It is a matter of public record that in recent weeks I have discussed these important matters with the Deputy First Minister at some length and I also met and indicated to other party leaders that I want to examine these issues with them as well, said Mr Robinson. I expect I need hardly say that agreement on a way forward has not yet been reached but, for myself, while I cannot be certain, I am not gloomy about the prospects of reaching an agreement which could command the confidence of everyone.
I am committed and willing to intensify discussions with the Deputy First Minister and others in the period ahead to test the possibilities. I will not attempt to characterise anyone elses position but I can say that there is a growing understanding of all the concerns that attend this debate, including those I have articulated, and a serious engagement is under way on how to resolve those concerns.
I need not tell this audience that when dealing with such sensitive matters we must at all times remember we are dealing with the safety, security and well-being of everyone who lives here.
We will tread carefully and only proceed when the community has the confidence to make progress. But at the same time we recognise that we have a responsibility to exert ourselves in order to identify safe structures which can create the conditions where this confidence will exist. [emphasis added]
That’s a neat piece of political alchemy. Roughly translated, it could mean: “Let’s, maybe, have policing and justice, in order to help build confidence where it is needed rather than wait till doomsday before that confidence arrives”. Their difficulty may lie in finding the political ‘fall guy’ party willing to take the strain for two parties at the top who have thus far been unable to agree on a way forward.
The detail is sparse and highly enigmatic, but the change in tone and import is unmistakable. Even if it has that same old ring of choreography so familiar from the old Peace Process? days.
You read on the web, well, what happens if these black holes fly straight through the planet before they have a chance to eat it? Whereas the one that the LHC could [create would] just sit there and perhaps sink to the center of the earth? It turns out that when you do the calculation the black holes are so small that even if they didn’t decay and they just sat there they wouldn’t come close enough to any matterbecause matter is basically empty spaceto dissolve and to [inaudible] the matter and to grow so they wouldn’t do any damage. Okay; why don’t you ignore that? Well the final piece of wonderful evidence which confines these idiots to the bin is that you look up into the sky and you see white wallssome neutron starsvery, very dense stars. Cosmic rays are hitting those with energy greater than those seen at the LHC so if you can make black holes, black holes will be created on that surface. It turns out that they’re nuclear dense, these stars, so the black holes are not going to fly through there; they’re going to sit there and they’re going to eat away and they’re going to eat away much quicker than they could eat away the earth because the matter is much denser. So people have calculated how many neutron stars or white walls you would see in the sky if this were happening. If they were getting eaten by little mini-black holes and it turns out that there’d be very few indeedin fact probably pretty much none, and you can do the calculation. So there’s a whole layer [laughs] thatI don’t need to reassure you anymore, I’m sure, but there are layer after layer after layer ofof tests and some of them are observational and some of them are theoretical and it turns out that it’s utter nonsense.
An unlikely new gang of four have just written a piece in the Times that appears to hint that the UK should go back on the decision to commission a new generation of nuclear subs. The article is by two former Conservative foreign secretaries Douglas Hurd and Matthew Rifkind, one ex-Labour ditto David Owen and Blair’s ex- Defence Secretary and former Nato Sec Gen George Robertson - none of them exactly CND. They give backing to a US initiative led by Henry Kissinger no less, to bid for a major scaling down of nuclear weapons via the nuclear deproliferation route that so far has had only limited success. ( See India, Pakistan, Israel and what about the rogues, N Korea and Iran?).
“The UK has reduced its nuclear weapons capability significantly over the past 20 years. It disposed of its freefall and tactical nuclear weapons and has achieved a big reduction of the number of warheads used by the Trident system to the minimum believed to be compatible with the retention of a nuclear deterrent. If we are able to enter into a period of significant multilateral disarmament Britain, along with France and other existing nuclear powers, will need to consider what further contribution it might be able to make to help to achieve the common objective.”
Does this imply the UK should think again over renewing Trident which only passed the Commons in March last year in the dying days of Blair with Conservative support, despite Brown’s specific backing?
Yet again, it might only mean support for Brown’s vague pledge for Britain to look again at its nuclear stockpile in order to boost new efforts to contain nuclear proliferation, as stated in his national security statement earlier this year.
But why bother to write the kind of joint article that attracts attention, when Brown has already promised to take that course?
And why wait for over a year to make their move, since Kissinger et al pronounced? Tell us more please, Gang of Four.
Mr McGuinness told supporters at the republican commemoration: “When I joined the IRA in this city it was an army of the people - sustained by the people - supported by the people - and answerable to the people.
UpdateThe Guardian says Gordon Brown will call a snap by-election in Glasgow East next month. His premiership could be at stake says the Herald.See rewrite and more below the fold.
The fall-out from Wendy Alexander’s resignation as Labour leader in the Scottish Parliament and a good SNP showing in the Westminster by-election for Glasgow East could trigger a collapse throughout GB from which Labour might never recover and even imperil the Union, warns anti Brown and fanatical Blairite John Rentoul in the Independent. But even Rentoul will be taken aback if the latest report this morning is confirmed.
The Scottish dimension of Labour’s dramatic collapse in the polls is an amazing story of political poker. The Prime Minister may be laying his job on the line. As he raises the stakes to that level, is the threat to the Union as big as some fear? Or is Brown about to repeat Wendy Alexander’s cardinal mistake and confuse Labour’s fate with that of the Union?
Certainly Alex Salmond has the Big Mo behind him and the scenario is by no means inconceivable.
The party is split at least three ways, between MSPs and Westminster MPs, and within the Holyrood Parliament itself, over whether to continue with Alexander’s policy of defying the SNP to “bring on ” a referendum on independence. For many, her downfall is a heaven-sent opportunity to get themselves off an uncomfortable hook. For others, Labour’s best chance lies in seizing the initiative and going for a referendum that unionists can win.
Next, the polls are running the SNP’s way, gaining on Labour for Westminster and passing them for the differently defined Holyrood constituencies and regions.
The best option for Scottish Labour is to argue for enhanced powers for the Holyrood Parliament, says noted commentator Iain McWhirter.
Furthermore, Rentoul referred to the obstacles in the path to independence, including almost certainly not one, but two referendums, the first on independence on principle, the second, on the final proposals which have to be agreed with Westminster, which among other things would bring the Westminster subsidy to an end.
(Declaration of interest: I’m an honorary fellow of the Unit)
Even so, does the trend of events and opinion bring Scottish independence that bit nearer? Undoubtedly the force is with the SNP. Yet today, Salmond’s minority government for all their self confidence are blocked by a solid unionist majority in the Parliament. Unless the pro-union parties turn to jelly, Salmond cannot even win a parliamentary vote to call a referendum, much less win a referendum itself in 2010, the year the First Minister says he wants to call it - even with the momentum gained if the SNP become the largest Scottish party in the next Westminster general election expected in spring of that year. You can see what Salmond is up to. He is using the independence argument to create momentum and chip away at Labour. In his heart he may not even want an early referendum; the prospect of one spooks and divides Labour and is too useful a weapon to give up easily.
As Alexander’s fall partly shows, Salmond’s referendum tactics have proved a brilliant success. She had no answer to Salmond’s tour de force in office. She seized on the one major topic over which she thought she, as the head of the largest unionist party in a Parliament with an overall unionist majority, held the initiative -on the choice between Union or independence by referendum. By law, only the Scottish government can move the Bill for a referendum. She believed she would call Salmond’s bluff by forcing him to bring in a referendum Bill his minority SNP government would be sure to lose. Instead, she fell into Salmond’s trap. She split the party by making the referendum Labour’s immediate cause, while Salmon refused to budge from his 2010 date. She did this when there was no need to do so and when most of her party - including Gordon Brown - vehemently opposed it. It is that basic tactical blunder, as much as the error of failing to declare a small invalid donation, that was the cause of her downfall. Salmon had called Alexander’s bluff, rather than vice versa.
In two years’ time, the balance of a devolved UK may change if a Conservative government is elected, with the SNP the largest party in Scotland.
A Conservative England and a nationalist Scotland would be left staring at each other for a while. Who knows what would happen: but one scenario is that an referendum on Scottish independence would be much more viable after 5 May 2011. That is the set date for the next Holyrood election, which the SNP on trend could win outright. But as the polls consistently show, there is no guarantee they would win a referendum on outright independence.
All parties including the SNP are waking up to the realisation that although Scots may vote in three years’ time for an SNP majority government, they consistently oppose outright independence, while favouring more powers for the Holyrood Parliament.
In the end, Salmond and co. may be only too happy to settle for something like a federal solution - an outcome which would make waves all over the UK including NI, though well short of the epochal conclusion of an end to the Union. In the short term - next month - Gordon Brown seems ready to stake his future on an absorbing game of the highest stakes.
They never did apologise.. and quite rightly so. Almost a year after they arrived, and after being on display at the National Museum of Ireland, Havhingsten fra Glendalough (The Sea Stallion from Glendalough) will set sail for Roskilde, Denmark, tomorrow from Custom House Quay, Dublin, at 11.30am tomorrow, whatever the weather. But, as they say themeselves, “The ship has spent a few days moored in the ‘finer’ part of Dublins harbour.” As before, you’ll be able to track their journey online - they’re taking a southern route this time [subs req]. So, in tribute to those Vikings, we remember, again, another great Viking victory at the Green Midget café in Bromley..
Interesting snippet from yesterday’s Irish News, although I’m not sure the Sinn Féin Bulletin can be accurately called a newspaper.. ANYhoo.. Apparently the Education Minister, Sinn Féin’s Caitriona Ruane, is hearing voices.. [scroll down]
“Look at who controls the media and in whose interest the media works,” Ms Ruane said. “There is, and I am putting this in inverted commas, the old boys network and I think that is what you are seeing.
“The voices that we are hearing are the voices of the establishment. What we need to hear are the voices of the people who are pro-change and I am meeting them every day. “I dont know if I would call it a witch-hunt. What I do know is that there are many people trying to block and frustrate change but I have never let loud voices stop the work I do.”
The changes announced today mark the start of an exciting programme of online development which, over the coming months, will see the http://www.irishtimes.com site enhanced with richer content in the form of pictures, graphics, audio and video. We will be developing content in areas of particular interest to our readers, which will allow them to interact better both with each other and with us on subjects of common interest.
Okay, that’s possibly an over reaction. But the Irish Times will be free online from Monday. Which means I don’t have to continue my online subscription so Slugger readers can get access to some of the best journalism on the island. And just in case madame editor is listening, no I won’t be cancelling my order for the paper version at my local shop! Here it is from the horse’s mouth:
THE IRISH TIMES will publish under its own title online from Monday morning with the launch of a new site for the newspaper, http://www.irishtimes.com . Access to the site will be free.
Only a year ago Alexander was tipped to lead the pro-Union fight back against Alex Salmond’s coup in winning office for the SNP and holding onto it brilliantly.
The long-running expenses row may have thrown her political judgment. She stumbled badly over suddenly calling for a referendum on Scottish independence, attracting the ire of her former mentor the Prime Minister and the derision of most of her own colleagues, as this Constitution Unit report explains (p29 par 3.2 et seq.)http://www.ucl.ac.uk/constitution-unit/research/devolution/MonReps/Scotland_May08.pdf.
But there’s much, much more. Fresh sleaze charges are throwing both parties at Westminster into turmoil at a time when the public’s need to trust them is greater than ever…
At Westminster, Labour’s golden couple Yvette Cooper and Ed Balls, both Brown babes and cabinet members in their 30s, are mired in an expenses row over claiming second-home expenses for their London residence. And Conservative chairman Caroline Spellman seems on the brink of quitting over disputed claims that her nanny was paid out of the public purse for doing some secretarial work. While to cap it all in the same piece in the Mail, journalist Peter Oborne accuses Tory Industry spokesman Alan Duncan of “receiving significant sums of money” from an oil trading company. Duncan denies the claim and told the BBC this morning he was going to sue.
Mission creep has also infected RIPA the Regulation of Investigatory Powers Act to epidemic levels. Intended as an anti-terrorist and anti serious crime measure to be used by the police and security service, its use has spread from monitoring terrorists suspects, fraudsters and stalkers to dog fouling, littering, people on the sick, and lying about addresses for schools admissions etc etc. The rot started when Home Secretary David Blunkett extended the Act’s powers to councils and the like in 2003, resulting in an increase in applications to use it from 9 in 2000 to 792 this year, including 474 from councils, according to a pretty full Wikipedia account. Now, fearing public uproar, the councils’ representative body has called a halt.
A neat distinction is made by Alice Miles in the Times between the open use of CCTV and secret snooping. The public don’t mind the former but loathe the latter, it seems.
RIPA applies to NI of course and there are lots of web entries about the rules for its use; but I can’t find any claims like those above. Do tell, if you’ve been subject to the snooper’s charter specifically under RIPA.
Interesting article by John Waters [Really? - Ed]in today’s Irish Times [subs req]. Although, perhaps not ‘interesting’ in the way he intended. [Ah - Ed] It’s a call to arms, of sorts, to supernaturalists in an apparent attempt to change the tone of the coverage of the news that Pope Benedict XVI has announced that Dublin is to host the 50th Eucharistic Congress in 2012 - coverage which has tended to reference the 1932 Congress that a nascent Republic of Ireland also hosted. I’ll excerpt part of the article but, in reality, it’s mostly what John Waters himself refers to as an “ideological distraction”.
The implication, indeed the express prediction, has been that it will be a more subdued affair and attract the attention of far fewer than the million or so who thronged the Phoenix Park and the streets of Dublin on that occasion. But why should this be? Are we less human than our parents, grandparents or great-grandparents?
The Archbishop of Dublin has wondered aloud how many baptised Irish Catholics any longer understand the meaning of the Eucharist. It is a good question, though not in the sense that we should feel chastened because we do not know our cathechism. It is a good question because it asks us if we have the capacity still to reach behind the veils of prejudice, piety and ideological distraction and tune into the most vital element of our humanity. You do not need to be religious, never mind Christian, to feel the need to connect with what is mysterious, eternal, absolute, infinite, unknowable. You need only to be human and open to the idea that this connection is vital to that condition.
The Eucharist is, exactly as it was 80 or 800 or 2,000 years ago, and will remain in 80 years’ time, the celebration of the mystery-made-flesh, an event that happened once in history but continues as a presence, moment-to-moment, announcing the hope beyond hope that keeps us alive.
Would it not be interesting if we were to approach this 50th Eucharistic Congress with such a concept in mind? What if, rather than anticipating some peripheral and underwhelming gathering of a declining institution - with which most of us have had a brittle relationship - we were to consider it an opportunity to establish a more fundamental engagement with our own humanity?
We live in a time when, captivated by our own cleverness, or out of a clinging to a reduced concept of reason, or enraged at an institution riddled with human weakness, or filled with desire for a freedom that still eludes us, we have ensured that we can no longer access in mainstream culture the nutrients most essential to our survival.
As a result, our bodies move around with a deceptive nonchalance while our spirits struggle for breath. This is not a victory over the Catholic Church, but over ourselves, over our children and their children, denying us all access to the hope that, ultimately, is the essence of our existence.
If we choose to see the event in four years’ time as the huddling of a dishevelled and dwindling group of partisans engaged in arcane rituals that once engaged our more simple ancestors, we will be turning our cynicism and disillusionment upon ourselves.
There are a couple of quick points to make about the article and the elements of arguments it contains. Mostly that those elements have been fleshed out elsewhere, by others.
I’m not going to dwell on the supernatural belief in the “mystery-made-flesh”. It’s his belief and he’s entitled to it. Whether my absence of belief in that particular supernatural tale makes me “less human” I can’t tell from behind my “veils of prejudice”.
Benedict points the finger of blame for, among other things, the French Revolution, Marxism and the Russian Revolution at the foundations of the modern age which appear with particular clarity in the thoughts of Francis Bacon [added link] - and, in particular, Bacons New Instrument for Rational Thinking - Novum Organum, published in 1620.
And I pointed to Bacon’s clarity of thought.
But perhaps the criticism of Bacon is also down to some of his other thoughts.. and their clarity.
Idols of the cave have their origin in the individual nature of each mans mind and body; and also his education, way of life and chance events. This category is varied and complex, and we shall enumerate the cases in which there is the greatest danger and which do most to spoil the calrity of the understanding.
Men fall in love with particular pieces of knowledge and thoughts: either because they believe themselves to be their authors and inventors; or because they have put a great deal of labour into them, and have got very used to them. If such men betake themselves to philosophy and universal speculation, they distort and corrupt them to suit their prior fancies.
The criticism of Bacon, at least for Benedict, is because he marks the point at which humanity started to embrace the “reduced concept of reason” John Waters complains about.
Benedict’s solution is the same one presented by John Waters - and given Waters’ wordy belated birthday tribute to Emperor Constantine Pope Benedict XVI in the Irish Times, previously noted here, that should be no surprise.
And what I said then still stands, and it’s why John Waters article is an ideological distraction -
The Protection from Harassment Act 1997 is, on the face of it, a sensible piece of legislation defending people from stalkers. But when it was drafted, several of us warned that it failed to distinguish between genuine harassment and legitimate protest. Harassment includes “alarming the person or causing the person distress”, which could mean almost anything: you can alarm someone, for example, by telling them that pulverised fly ash contains mercury. It requires a “course of conduct” to be pursued, but this means nothing more than doing something twice. If you take two pictures of workers felling trees, that counts. Conduct also includes speech.
Worse still, the legislation was the first of several “behaviour acts” which blur the distinction between civil and criminal offences. The victim of the course of conduct may take a civil claim to the high court. On the basis of far less evidence than a criminal case requires, the court can grant an injunction against the defendant. If the defendant then breaks that injunction - by continuing to talk to the people he is seeking to dissuade, or to march or picket or protest - he then commits a criminal offence, carrying up to five years’ imprisonment.
We warned that the legislation had the makings of a new sedition law. No one took us seriously. But the first three people to be arrested under the act were peaceful protesters. Since then it has been used repeatedly to stifle what should be legitimate dissent.
Even more fascinating (and damning) is this rebuttal from the law firm which advised Parliament on the framing of the law, that they have in any way acted unethically in since utilising the act’s provisions to protect its clients:
Our involvement in the harassment act concerned the drafting and introduction of a private member’s bill against stalking in 1996. Our aim was to assist in bringing in legislation to prohibit stalking. Our aim was defeated by parliament, which determined and decided to outlaw harassment.
“Various jurisprudential concepts from the stalking bill were incorporated into the act, but it was drafted in far wider terms. At the time we advised those we assisted in the parliamentary process that the law against harassment was far more outreaching than our original intention. We are fully entitled to use existing legislation to seek to protect our clients’ interests and there is no conflict of interest. [emphasis added].
So one of the final parliamentary acts of the last Tory government appears to have developed considerable ‘political’ bite. Even as far as putting a nasty bite on bloggers. The question has to be: who’s next?
Jack Straw’s new law to protect witnesses from intimidation being rushed through Parliament from next week will fail to make any impact on the judges, warns leading QC and legal commentator David Pannick. Pannick’s pronouncements almost amount to law in themselves and he speaks with authority. He writes with utter certainty about this. Some local readers may smile at his reference to the Northern Ireland courts’ reluctance to admit anonymous evidence, despite paramilitary intimidation. If Pannick is correct, scores of cases in the pipeline may still have to be dropped and a very awkward confrontation between the government and the courts may well ensue. The new Act will apply to Northern Ireland. I wonder what the Assembly would have done in response to the Lords’ ruling if justice powers had already been devolved? And what if any, would have been the effect on the status of Edward Gillen’s evidence in the McCartney murder trial, and on any future similar evidence?
Malachi O’Doherty points to a disturbing development, that could have widespread implications, not simply for bloggers, but for any journalists in their legitimate business of tracking down a story. It’s with regard to a Belfast blogger called Alan Murray, who has been using his blog Holylands Warzone to campaign against the privatisation of public housing in his local area of Belfast. Malachi notes:
He is on a very important issue here and he has been writing about it more eloquently than most - and got beaten up for his trouble. But the worry for bloggers is that they can be prosecuted for naming public figures whose conduct they question! And if a blogger can be prosecuted for this, then so can a journalist.
He also provides a timeline with Murray’s version of what happened. The critical point, from journalist’s or blogger’s point of view is that the PSNI have responded to a complaint against writing on the Internet under the law of criminal harassment. Indeed, Murray claims to have been arrested twice: first on 2nd July and then again on 27th September last year.
I cannot and do not wish to speak to the veracity of Murray’s claims against the individuals named on his website. Free speech is rightly moderated by a civil code that gives both sides the opportunity to put their case before a court of law.
There is certainly a case for the involvement of the police if a blogger, or one of their commenters implies physical threats against a specific individual. But I’ve been through Murray’s blog and have not been able to find any evidence of such; which might explain why no charges appear to have been preferred.
If Malachi is right, the use of police power of arrest appears to have been used directly against a citizen for criticising several public figures on the Internet. That’s a development that should worry more than just the citizens of Belfast.
The judge said he realised the McCartney family would be frustrated and disappointed at his verdict, but the dead man’s memory would be ill-served by the court failing to observe the highest standards of criminal justice and the burden of proof that prevails.
The judge warned the three acquitted men that they could yet be brought back to court if more evidence emerges. “I have no doubt that the investigation into this crime will continue and if new evidence emerges in connection with this murder no one, including for that matter even the accused in this trial, will be beyond the reach of potential prosecution,” he added.
Robert McCartneys sister Catherine said the lack of justice lay firmly at the feet of Sinn Féin and the IRA. Speaking outside the court she said her brothers murder was an embarrassment for the British and Irish governments. Ms McCartney said she believed that the PSNI have a wealth of information on the murder but cannot turn any of it into evidence as “fear still exists and as long as it still exists, we wont get justice”.