While the Bushies have been concentrating on North Korea’s fledgling nuclear industry, the Peoples Republic of China has been building up it’s missile sub capability.  Not yet in numbers to call a fleet, the 092 mounts 12 tubes and the one newer 094 (2 by 2010) mount 16 tubes.  All can send a 250 kiloton or a MIRVed bus of 4 90 kiloton warheads 5000 miles.  That gets my attention.

So why aren’t we in a lather about the PRC whacking us from undetectable boomers?.  One reason is that MAD is a game we have played with the best of them and won.  Another is that we are busily making it a piss poor investment for the PRC to nuke us until we glow:  All those loans they have made to finance the Bush Edition of voodoo economics go up in smoke as soon as they twist the keys.  A third reason surfaced yesterday.

A correction in the stocks traded on the Chinese markets due to what their government complained of as rampant speculation sent the Shanghai Composite on a ride that looked like the Atlantic side of Sleeve League.  This triggered sell off on NASDAQ and NYSE. that wiped out this year’s rally.  Granted, they had some help in Allen Geenspan, that fount (at least when working for us) of Delphic obscurity unable to utter a phrase in plain English,  and who now, having to fend for himself, has managed to baldly put “Recession” and “this year” in the same sentence. (This he tells to a business conference in Hong Kong on the 26th, no less. Naughty, naughty boy.)

Plainly put, Sluggiepoos, through the miracles wrought by globalization, the Reds can nuke us with our own economy. Now that is weirder than anything you will see in the Bay to Breakers or in the Castro at Halloween.

Sinn Fein also pledged in its 50-page manifesto to:
:: Achieve fully democratically accountable civic policing, secure the transfer of policing and justice powers from Westminster to Stormont by May 2008, develop a balanced and comprehensive strategy to acknowledge and address the suffering of victims and survivors, force the British government to acknowledge its role in collusion and shoot-to-kill, block the secondment of Police Service of Northern Ireland officers to MI5, guarantee all-party representation on the Policing Board special purposes committee, and ensure the Police Ombudsman has statutory access to all information held by the PSNI and statutory powers to hold all police officers to account. [added emphasis]

The problem for SF is that, while such a pledge may satisfy their own conditions for the Ard Chomhairle to eventually implement the motion passed at the recent Ard Fheis, the British government have made it as clear as they can that the devolution of policing and justice powers, however restricted those powers may be, will ultimately depend on conditions on the ground - “nor is the power available to the Government”

A report published by the Urban Forum - comprising architects, chartered surveyors, engineers, landscape architects and planners - has called for all-party agreement to chart a more sustainable pattern of development.

At the moment despite the population growth, the Republic’s town and city centre populations are declining as the suburbs continue to sprawl and grow. Cork and Limerick cities declined by 3.2% and 2.7% respectively, while their county areas grew by 11.4% and 8.3% respectively.

One suggestion put forward is for the creation of a new urban centre in the west to counterbalance the spread of Dublin:

Another dimension of Ireland’s new urbanisation is the extent to which this growth in population and development is being dominated by Dublin, with the province of Leinster now accounting for 54% of our population.
While decentralisation has been proposed as one means of addressing the Dublinisation of Ireland, the creation of so many new locations for these public service offices only tends to dilute the impact of this measure.

The reality is that the creation of a new major urban centre – with a similar pulling power to Dublin – is needed on the country’s west coast. The Government’s Atlantic Gateway project should become a priority to achieve this objective.

The report also points out that one-off houses in rural Ireland now account for up to 40% of the Republic’s new housing stock, a situation which could have severe consequences for infrastructure planning.

One of them is that schools and other facilities in our cities and inner suburbs are struggling to remain open while the demand for school places in outlying areas is booming. This pressure on infrastructure in the outer suburbs is reflected in increasing pressure on our water and sewerage systems and a distinct lack of social facilities.

There is also increased pressure on urban landscapes. Insecure public ownership, reduction in park lands and sporting facilities for new development and infrastructure as well as underdeveloped park resources contribute to a poorer urban quality of life.

The spread of housing also means that the average car in Ireland travels, on an annual basis, 24,400km per year – 70% more than France or Germany, 50% more than Britain – and even 30% more than the USA.

The price of this rapid economic success and our fast increasing use of cars is that Ireland has become the fifth most oil-dependent country in the EU and the ninth in the world. This is taking place at a time when oil is becoming an ever-scarcer resource.

The report also says there is substantial evidence to suggest that urban sprawl could contribute to social isolation as well as an increase in obesity levels due to increased car dependency, longer commuting times and fewer opportunities for physical exercise.

Not surprisingly, the Urban Forum, while admitting the National Development Plan (NDP) will help to address some of the issues such as the proposed Atlantic Corridor and provisions for social housing and schools, it says the National Spatial Strategy needs to be reviewed and updated.

The most recent Census shows that our population is growing at a much higher rate than was projected at the time when the NSS was prepared, so a new Spatial Strategy is required in order to create a more sustainable urban structure within a generation.

This updated NSS should have as a central objective support for the growth of a second major conurbation of international significance centred on Cork, Limerick and Galway as a counter balance to the growth of Dublin. The Atlantic Gateway Initiative is welcomed in this regard. There is an urgent need to update population and housing projections in the Regional Planning Guidelines in the light of the 2006 census.

As much of the building stock built in the coming years will be around for the next century, the decisions and actions we take at this moment will have a massive impact on the country’s landscape and cityscapes as well as on the lives of at least the next five or six generations.

On a related front, the National Sculpture Factory in Cork will be hosting a two-day conference on design and housing in May where participants will look to challenge the state of the housing industry and explore the responsibilities and opportunities for architects, designers, artists, developers, planners, educators and government to make it better. 

From the EEAG press release

Ireland is a typical example of an expansionary shock. This has led to a strong appreciation of the real exchange rate, which makes the country vulnerable to a global downturn. The Irish experiences point to two previously underestimated problems.

• The first is the interaction between a general upswing and housing price dynamics: large housing price increases and a strong expansion in the construction sector imply large risks of a substantial reversal once a downturn starts. [added emphasis]

• The second problem is that large immigration in a boom contributes to rises in aggregate expenditures and may thus reinforce, rather than dampen, the boom.

While in the Chapter referred to [pdf file]

Already in our 2002 EEAG report, we discussed adjustment problems with specific reference to the Irish case (see Chapter 4). In that report, we emphasised macroeconomic risks due to asymmetries in the adjustment process via factor prices and the real exchange rate. Adjustment to demand shocks via this channel tends to work effectively in response to expansionary shocks. It tends to be sluggish in response to negative shocks. In the case of Ireland, the risk is that recent high growth rates would translate into sustained expectations of growth in labour compensation, which may become incompatible with macroeconomic stability, especially once the process of income convergence comes to an end. There is thus a risk that the real exchange rate will overshoot. An important issue raised by the Irish case is the extent to which overvaluation in the goods market can interact with property prices and developments in the construction sector. The demand boom phase has been reinforced and arguably prolonged by the increases in property prices and a construction boom. The issue is whether and to what extent a possible output downturn can be exacerbated by a fall in property prices reducing consumption demand, but also generating a crisis in the construction sector. [added emphasis]

It should be pointed out that the report predicts - “There will only be a mild slowdown in the world economy. In Europe there will be a slower – but continued – recovery.”

And on preferred economic models..

As to the issue of what economic model Europe should opt for, the main conclusions are:

• Although not as successful as often perceived, recent macroeconomic performance in the Scandinavian countries is good. The lesson for Europe is not that one can do without market-liberal reforms, as is often claimed. It is instead that such measured reforms in both product and labour markets can produce very substantial results.

• Tax competition from the new member states has brought down corporation taxes in the EU. This raises equity concerns. To tax capital in an efficient way, the report proposes a simultaneous increase in the VAT and a reduction in labour taxes.

• Economic nationalism in the form of opposition to cross-border mergers, promotion of national champions and bailing out of domestic firms is a serious danger for economic efficiency. A key factor behind economic nationalism is public ownership, which should be severely restricted. The report proposes an EU rule to this effect.

Campbell blames red tape for the low uptake and believes huge numbers would be prepared to hold a British passport.

“There are thousands who want this and would be entitled to it. They regard themselves as British culturally, but just happen to have been born on the wrong side of the border.”

This isn’t the first time Slugger has followed this particular campaign. It’s something that Campbell and the DUP seem to return to on regular occasions.

Campbell previously launched a campaign for those Irish citizens born in the Irish Republic but now living in Northern Ireland who wanted an automatic right to British citizenship to send postcards to highlight their plight. While no postcards were produced subsequently, the issue of automatic British citizenship for citizens of the Irish Republic seems to remain an issue - for the DUP at least.

Campbell’s frustration seems to be mainly based on the fact that people from Northern Ireland have much easier access to Irish passports.

“There are people who have never lived there but can just apply to offices in Dublin and get it.”

In 2005, there 36,000 passports issued to people from Northern Ireland compared with 32,000 in 2004 and 28,000 in 2003.

The growing number comes partly from the Express Passport Service that was introduced to Northern Ireland’s post office network in 2003 and is still being expanded.

At the end of 2005, Ireland’s Department of Foreign Affairs estimated that more than 200,000 people in NI held an Irish passport.

From the PA report

The Irish Finance Minister revealed: “With regard to the concept of all-island funding, the Irish government proposes to develop all-island funding in the following areas: education, skills and innovation; energy research including renewable and sustainable energy; regional development; tourism development; poverty, social inclusion and community infrastructure.

“In some cases, these National Development Plan proposals involve more effective use of existing funding on an all-island basis. Other projects will involve a significant investment in Northern Ireland by the Irish government.

“Necessary provision will be ringfenced and is provided for in the unallocated reserve in the plan.

“The details will be finalised in discussion with the British Government and the Northern Ireland Executive on restoration.”

Or, presumably, in the absence of an Executive, just with the British government?

While that is true for any matter within a transferred field, if the government has already signed contracts relating to the billing of water charges that situation will be more complicated than at first glance.

Additionally, as the PA report goes on to note, there will still be a bill to be paid

Hundreds of thousands of householders are bracing themselves for fresh payment demands to cover the cost of upgrading the dilapidated water and sewerage infrastructure.

Simply blocking a separate water charge will not cover the cost of upgrading the sewage and water infrastructure.  And unless that work is completed, as soon as possible, there will be additional charges added on to the cost

Whether we’ll hear anything other than soundbites, or more demands, from the parties on this before the election is currently unknown..

Last time, both the Ulster Unionists and DUP had two clear quotas each. However, in 2005, the DUP outpolled the UUP by 38.2% to 29.1% in the general election and by 37.3% to 24.1% in the locals. In contrast to many other places, the local elections were not better for the UUP here. In fact, they demonstrated that the UUP’s vote is softer than the DUP’s.

Although the general election indicated the DUP are inching towards three quotas, they aren’t quite there yet. There has been considerable change in their ticket from last time with none of the three 2003 candidates standing again. Willie McCrea is moving over from Mid Ulster, which is no problem given the strong base he has built up here in recent years. However, both sitting MLAs, Wilson Clyde and Paul Girvan, were deselected to be replaced by Antrim Councillors Mel Lucas and Trevor Clarke. While Clyde is probably not a fatal loss, as he was narrowly outpolled by Clarke in the Randalstown area in the last local elections, Girvan was a formidable votegetter who polled over 50% individually in Ballyclare in the last council elections, and was building up a formidable personal vote.

Neither Lucas nor Clarke have personal bases of anything like that size, and both are Free Presbyterians based in Antrim Borough. This means the DUP lose a personal vote and narrow their geographical and social base. There has been speculation that McCrea preferred Lucas and Clarke to Girvan because he perceived the latter as a threat. In any case, the net result is that the DUP’s long-range shot at a third seat here will almost certainly go begging, unless the Ulster Unionist vote really collapses.

That should be enough to see the Ulster Unionists return two candidates. David Burnside will once again head the UUP poll, and probably be elected on the first count.

Jim Wilson is standing down this time and with him the UUP will lose his strong Ballyclare base, but they have sensibly selected Templepatrick-based Danny Kinahan, from roughly the same geographical area. Kinahan is the sort of Ulster Unionist most of us thought had died out, a former army officer who lives in a castle. Whatever his background, he polled well for a first timer in difficult political circumstances in the last council elections in Antrim South East and beefs up the moderate end of the ticket in a constituency where Alliance are competitive.

In the three way fight between Sinn Fein, the SDLP and David Ford, leader of the Alliance Party, things may have subtly changed since last time out. This is almost certainly a seat that pre 2005 SF would have taken comfortably given their rising vote from 1998 to 2003. However, there have been some internal organisational problems (The Irish Times noted some absence on the ground here) that and the annus horribilus of that year means they have struggled to break out of the 11% zone. What Mitchel McLaughlin lacks in local roots (he is joined by those other ‘blow ins’: Bob McCartney and Willie McCrea) may be compensated for by a high media profile. It could be a gamble, but others now look more vulnerable, not least Ford:

...almost any increase in the Sinn Féin vote here would give them a seat. McLaughlin and his big profile must be able to pull off another few hundred votes from the SDLP, and with no dissident Republican candidate here, that would make him favourite to take a seat, although it can’t be guaranteed.

Does that mean Alliance leader David Ford is doomed? I don’t think so. The total nationalist vote here is still less than two quotas, and Ford showed last time that he has an unrivalled capacity to pull in transfers, gaining almost 1600 votes during the 2003 count while Meehan picked up less than 500. Additionally, South Antrim was the only constituency where Alliance increased its share of the vote in 2003, in what was an absolutely horrible election for them. If the NI-wide Alliance vote can even come up part of the way to its 2005 level, he will be safe. And Alliance are throwing the kitchen sink at this one.

One factor running against Ford this time is that the UUP are unlikely to have much, if any, surplus to pass on. He will be dependent on DUP transfers which are likely to be much less favourable.

Could it be the SDLP who are vulnerable then? It could well be. There has been bad blood between sitting SDLP MLA Thomas Burns and his predecessor, Donovan McClelland, since a controversial selection meeting in 1998. This time, Donovan McClelland’s wife, Noreen, is the other SDLP candidate, and the bad blood has become very public. There have been other issues within the local SDLP, and six term Antrim Councillor Oran Keenan has left the party to sit as an Independent.

Running two candidates when you have a bare quota is an insane strategy. Last time, overnomination and poor internal transferring meant that the SDLP came within 200 votes of losing their seat despite starting with over a quota. Only 70% of Donovan McClelland’s transfers passed on to Thomas Burns, despite the fact the bad feeling between them was largely a private matter at that point. Last week’s front page headline of the Antrim Guardian was ‘SDLP At War’. In those circumstances, that already poor level could drop further. And then the SDLP, who may not even secure a quota this time, would be in real trouble.

It will come down to transfers, Sammy notes:

And transfers will be crucial here. My own suspicion is that none of Ford, Burns or McLaughlin will have a quota in the later stages of the count. If every voter voted down the ballot paper here, McLaughlin would probably be the loser. But many voters don’t, and this seat remains on a knife-edge.

Clearly time is precious, particularly when with the lack of clear headline issues means everyone is desperate to get out on doorsteps. But, you do wonder why they launch the blog in the first place, if they are not going to use it. There’s not necessarily a problem with the blog being written by an election worker, so long as s/he then goes on to narrate a longer story. The UUP have gone for a group approach, with candidates telling their own stories.

‘Slugger’s tip’: if a blog isn’t going to enhance and strengthen your communication strategy - don’t do it!

Lord Falls - - Diary of a slightly revolutionary constitutionalist

Nuala, a chara dhil, I’m just dropping you a wee note to thank you for the great services to truth and justice that you have done to my people. At last it is becoming clear what the real nature of conflict on our troubled island has been and that the real villains - indeed the only villains - have been the crown forces of the British war machine.

You might like to know that my office has established a statistical research group to analyse all the killings of the troubles and to trace the responsibility back to where it belongs. When our researches are complete, we will be happy to put them at your disposal. Indeed, now that we are telling people they can shop the McCartney killers, we might as well give them to the Historical Enquiry Team as well; not that it will be news to the forces of collusion themselves what they have been up to.

Our initial researches show that 37% of all killings can be traced to British agents and hired assassins. These include the obvious ones like when unmarked cars drove up to a barricade and shot at vigilantes. They also include killings by managed informers like Haddock and Scap.

Another 30% of killings have been suicides by members of the security forces. Some of these have been acknowledged, but by no means all of them. The high incidence of suicide among police officers and soldiers is well attested, as is the powerful motivation for concealing the real cause of death among soldiers who shoot themselves. They don’t want to embarrass their families, compromise insurance claims and they want their final act of self despatch to have some propaganda value for the cause. We sympathise with these motivations, but we have too long taken the flak for Brits that have killed themselves with well aimed ricochets that could be attributed to IRA snipers.

We estimate that 20% of troubles deaths were accidents. Just look at the figures for the numbers of IRA volunteers who blew themselves up in the early days. Half of all IRA members who died back then killed themselves.

They obviously did this to prevent loss of life among civilians by driving bombs away from their targets, rather than towards them. This proves that it was not the intention of the IRA to kill people but to save lives, and many of our volunteers have been heroic martyrs in the service of that endeavour.

The other 13% of deaths in the troubles have been due to previously undisclosed medical conditions.

Occasionally this has been acknowledged, as in the case of the man who died of a heart attack at the scene of the Old Bailey bomb in 1973 that I had nothing to do with. That was Gerry Kelly.

But count up all the cases of people who died because of pre existent medical conditions that finished them off when they were standing near an explosion or in the proximity of cross fire, and you will see that the IRA never actually killed anybody in the whole troubles period. Indeed, it was my mission to ensure that they wouldn’t, and these new figures confirm my success.

I foresee that when these figures are released I will be able to declare finally that I was the leader of the IRA through this whole period and take the due credit for my achievements, perhaps in time for a presidential election in the south.

You wouldn’t fancy publishing this for us, would you?

Published in January’s edition of Fortnight magazine

By Alex Kane

Is it just me, or is this a really dull election campaign so far? And I don’t just mean dull in the sense that a David Ford speech is dull; I mean mind-numbingly dull, what’s-the-point-of-it-all dull, who-are-these-idiots-on-my-doorstep dull, will-my-vote-make-any-difference dull. So dull, in fact, that a photo-opportunity of Ian Paisley tossing a pancake attracted a mob of news-crews and deadline-looming hacks. Perhaps it was the ultimate sign of the DUP’s electoral confidence that none of their press team had any worries at all about headlines linking the words Paisley and tosser!

This should be an exciting, dramatic, political breakthrough campaign. Sinn Fein and the DUP are seeking a mandate to govern together, a prospect that wasn’t even on the horizon a decade ago. Both parties have abandoned the mantras of the past, have pole-vaulted away from supposedly fixed positions and are now three-quarters of the way up the aisle. The DUP may have voted against the Civil Partnership Bill in Westminster, but it won’t stop them entering an uncivil marriage of convenience with Sinn Fein in a matter of months.

For all of the rumours of internal tensions and strong-arm tactics, the DUP’s civil war never materialised. All of the candidates signed their contracts and put their collective imprimatur upon the manifesto. And every single DUP MLA will support the deal—-and it will come much sooner than people think—-which gives the nod to the creation of an Executive Committee which has Sinn Fein on board. The moment for a possible rebellion has come and gone; the DUP will not be falling apart and there will be no realignment required between the UUP and the DUP’s so-called pragmatists in order to keep the show on the road. The DUP has come through its moment of crisis and has come through relatively unscathed.

All of which has come as a terrible blow to poor old Bob McCartney. He is running a “last hurrah” campaign which consists of having to put himself on the ballot paper in six constituencies, while endorsing a rag, tag and bobtail collection of the electorally unknown and the politically forgotten. There were no big name defections from the DUP rallying to his banner and no sign that his anti-Agreement, anti-St Andrews, anti-d’Hondt rhetoric was having any impact beyond his own home and hearth.

I remember that moment in November 1981, on yet another “Day of Action” orchestrated by the DUP, when McCartney grabbed the microphone from Ian Paisley and described him as a “fascist who is more interested in an independent Ulster, a mini-Geneva run by a fifth-rate Calvin..” Like many other unionists at the time, I pricked up my ears. Here was a new, articulate voice; a voice that spoke of pluralism and making the pro-Union cause more attractive to a wider audience. In early 1982 I wrote a piece in which I described Bob as the “possible leader of a new, revived and broader-based Unionism.”

Yet there he was in Lisburn marketplace, twenty-six years later, barracking Ian Paisley and accusing him of having gone soft! The difference between the two men this time is that Paisley has moved on and accepted certain, albeit unpleasant, political realities. For Bob, though, time has stood still and he refuses to accept the realities. In terms of pure logic and natural justice his arguments cannot be faulted; unfortunately, the logic and arguments tend to collapse when they come face to face with cold, hard, practical politics.

I think it was Reggie Maudling, a former Cabinet colleague, who said this of Enoch Powell: “We all aspire to remain on the train of logic. The tragedy for Enoch is that while we are prepared to get off at Hammersmith, he insists on going all the way to Barking.” I fear that Bob may be on a similar journey. If so, it is a sad end to a political career.

Mind you, Jeffrey Donaldson’s response to the encounter between Bob and the DUP entourage was quite interesting. He accused him of trying to ambush Paisley and said that his behaviour was “disgraceful and was a most undignified way for a party leader to act.” Can this be the same Mr. Donaldson who tried to ambush David Trimble at a series of UUC meetings and who even went so far as to ambush him during a radio phone-in? Kettle and pot, Jeffrey; kettle and pot.

Actually, the oddest thing of all about the Lisburn incident was Ian Paisley’s image. Clad in a black coat and an even blacker Fedora he looked like an older and genial version of Anthony Hopkins’ Hannibal Lecter. And trailed, as he was, by Jeffrey and the wonder-kids from DUP HQ, one couldn’t help wondering if he was sizing up one of them for lunch.

And it’s been a good campaign, too, for the UUP, compared to the last few; with a forward-looking socio/economic agenda and no own goals on the PR or poster front. There will be no dramatic bounceback for the party this time round, but I suspect it will do a lot better than most critics and commentators think. It’s certainly not going to meltdown, let alone disappear.

The one fear I do have, though, is that of voter apathy. Northern Ireland is now well placed for economic and political stability and Unionism is equally well placed to take advantage of that stability. The campaign may have been dull, but that is no excuse for not voting. Indeed, the very dullness of the campaign may be a sign of how normal politics is becoming here.

First published in the Newsletter

Alliance would like to see the Police Service of Northern Ireland and the Gardai able to pursue suspects on the other side of the Irish border. Such an instrument could be based on the European Union`s Schengen Agreement and would be an important tool in the fight against terrorism,” Alliance suggested.

The UK and Ireland are the only European Union member states who are not signatories to the Schengen Agreement, which allows police wearing their uniforms and in clearly marked vehicles to cross borders to track down criminals, has led to the closure of border posts between participating countries, stopped Customs checks between signatory nations, and provides for the sharing of information on terrorism as well as DNA and fingerprint evidence.

Back in 1997 on the eve of a major expansion of the original (1985) agreement and convention, the BBC had this to say about its voluntarily accepted conditions:

...member countries have to have a common visa policy, provide for police and judicial cooperation, and link up with a centralised computer system that pools information about cross-border crime - in particular the smuggling of drugs and the arrival of illegal immigrants. The major condition for open frontiers within Schengen is effective controls on the external borders.

This would appear to significantly ahead of either of the nationalist parties, in terms of cross border co-operation. It will be interesting to see what the Unionist parties make of it too, since it privileges concerns over common security standards.

The Trade Union campaign for non-payment of water charges is contributing to a public event as follows:

VENUE:        Grosvenor House, Glengall Street, Belfast

DATE:          Tuesday 27 February 2007

TIME:          7:30pm

There will be speakers from three campaigning groups dedicated to preventing the implementation of Water Charges from next April Fools’ Day.  NIPSA General Secretary John Corey will speak on behalf of the NI Committee of the Irish Congress of Trade Unions. Other speakers confirmed are Frances Dowds of the Northern Ireland Anti-Poverty Network and Manus Maguire of Communities Against the Water Tax.

At the meeting, Mr Corey will make an unequivocal case for mass non-payment of water charges, to which the Trade Union Movement is committed.  Mr Corey will emphasise the importance of acting now to build mass-non payment of water charges and keep water as an affordable public good.

“The real bills will arrive in April or May. In the weeks to then we have to ensure that we get the message to every household in Northern Ireland to unite behind the trade unions and refuse to pay these unfair charges.

“Direct Rule Ministers cannot see any further than their own constituents in Britain. Ministers think that if their constituents pay for water to a privatised company then we in Northern Ireland should have to do the same.

“These Ministers need to learn that the people of Northern Ireland can think for themselves.  The people know right from wrong.  I also believe the Assembly election provides the opportunity to put this key issue squarely in front of all political parties. 

“We can urge voters to demand of these politicians on the door step and at their meetings, that they back publicly the campaign of non-payment.”