Speculation is rife about exactly if/when ownership of Independent News and Media UK finally passes to Russian oligarch Alexander Lebedev. Robert Peston believes the deal is imminent later today or tomorrow. But not a word about the implications for stablemate the Belfast Telegraph, which has been the nearest thing the Indy had to a cash cow for years. Media guru Roy Greenslade covers the history of the tortuous negotiations but has no fresh information to add. The whole business is about as transparent as Belfast sleech and a far cry from the cross border, cross channel idealism of the old tycoon Tony OReilly. Meanwhile the rest of the Belfast media stays silent. Cowed perhaps by the freemasonry of their own nervous owners?
Lebedev picked up the ailing London Evening Standard for £2 and adopted the bold strategy of turning it into a single edition, late evening freesheet. That may work for the captive Tube readership and may even be on the cards for the Indy at least in London and other big metro centres. The name of the game seems to be to abandon nationwide circulation, in favour restricting it to big city concentration with lower costs. As for the Bel Tel, it seems to be part of the goody bag for Lebedevs son Evgeny. Im sure theyll appreciate that in Larne. For the Lebedevs you can see the fun in the Standard gamble but the appeal of the Bel Tel may elude them. In the medium term it all seems terribly precarious, even though when I last heard, the paper was still making money despite its gently falling circulation. I wouldnt be surprised of Lebedevs ownership of the Belfast Telegraph was a short term fix with an sale-on to another buyer. But to whom?
Ahern, who was criticised for increasing the fine for blasphemy to 25,000 last year, said he never regarded the provision in the new Defamation Bill as anything more than a short-term solution. “There was a lot of nonsense about that blasphemy issue and people making me out to be a complete right-winger at the time,” he said. “There was an incredibly sophisticated campaign [against me], mainly on the internet. I was only doing my duty in relation to it, because clearly it is in the constitution. The attorney general said ‘there is this absolute, mandatory thing it is an offence, punishable by law.” A final decision on a blasphemy referendum rests with the cabinet, but if Ahern remains justice minister after this months reshuffle, he is likely to propose that it be added to the autumn list. The government is already committed to referendums on childrens rights and establishing a permanent court of civil appeal.
Once more then, just for fun. [We’ll never shift those beards now… - Ed]
One thing is obvious this St Patrick’s Day: very few people in Washington are thinking about Ireland, north or south. Obama’s healthcare bill is the only thing people are talking about. The general perception (ie from both left and right is that Obama has been strangely passive. Past Presidents have be active in writing law and then offering it to Congress to rip up, or disagree with. In this case, President Obama has delegated much of the initial drafting to Congress. The bill before them now has striped out a lot of the more controversial provisions, like the possibility of state funded abortions. But it has annoyed some Democrats that their leadership in Congress has agreed to abandon a public option (meaning all government will flow into the expensive private system) or an expansion of Medicare. Jane Hamsher:
The Senate bill isnt a starter home, its a sink hole. It needs to die so something else can take its place. It doesnt matter whether people are on the right or the left once they understand the con job thats about to be foist upon them, they agree.
That might be the sensible thing to do. Except, that US politics seems to be even more locked down than our own little regional affair in Stormont.
If and when Congress clears healthcare out of its inbox, the mid term elections will dominate the minds of the mainstream press and the US’s vast army of voluble bloggers. Yep, just over a year after the Obama ‘audacity of change’ election, the Democrats in the House (along with a third of the Senate, and a collection of Mayoral and gubernatorial contests now face a ‘throw the bums out’ election (in a poll released by NBC last night, 50% of US voters said they would vote out their congressman) in November.
Back in 1993, when Bill (and Hillary) Clinton tried and failed to get medicare reform through Congress had a trust rating of 70%. Now, according to the NBC poll (PDF copy), it is down to 17%.
The vicious culture wars that has slowly asserted its grip on US politics (and which once Obama promised he would bring to an end) seems to have trashed the bipartisanship that once allowed the US federal government to actually pass some law. Although getting a majority in the House works, it is not good enough to pass a bill in the Senate. When the Democrats lost Ted Kennedy’s old Massachusetts seat to Scott Brown, they definitively lost their filibuster-proofing.
In Washington, it seems, it is the game that counts, not the policy. A few weeks back (before he declared himself a candidate in the Democratic primary in California, Mickey Kaus argued that:
For months, both GOP and Fox hosts have been talking about socialized medicine and death panels and vicious Medicare cuts and the government coming between you and your doctor, etc. If Democrats pass the bill and none of this happens, Republican opponents will be more than defeated. They’ll be discredited.
Where the quandary comes in for Democrats is that the [NBC] survey found 67 percent of Republican respondents said they were very interested in the November elections compared to 46 percent of Democrats.
Moral appears low amongst Democrats on Capitol Hill. Some suggest that’s a lot to do with the Obama White House’s aloofness from their team in Congress. They cite poor engagement both with Congress and their external support base. The conventional wisdom, from bloggers to mainstream media insiders, at this moment is that it is the Dems are going to get caned in November. The degree to which they lose seats will depend on whether they can bed in their change and begin selling it.
The buzz now is that despite huge pressure being applied by a very targeted ad campaign at wavering Democrat congressmen, the party is confident of passing the bill. Confident even though the word goes the bill may only pass by one vote. Why? Because although they can pass it with more than one vote, they won’t because voting yes to health care for these guys is almost instant death in November’s mid term elections.
So one will get to take the poison chalice, whilst the other four (it’s rumoured) get to run with the opposition herd.
We should get a result by midnight Eastern Time on Saturday night.
Details have been announced of Emperor Constantine Pope Benedict XVI’s official state visit to the UK Scotland and England. Apparently, it’s got something to do with the way his Empire is administrated… According to the BBC report - “The theme of the visit will be relations between the Christian Churches and the major faiths.” But, obviously, not those who “cannot, according to Catholic doctrine, be called Churches in the proper sense.” And, according to Scottish Secretary of State, Jim Murphy, MP, “It is the first ever official Papal visit to our country combining state-to-state discussions and related engagements as well as pastoral events being organised by the Catholic bishops’ conferences of England, Wales and Scotland”.
St. Galls of Belfast will once again do battle at Croke Park today in a bid to become the All-Ireland club champions for gaelic football (coverage live on RTE.) The Milltown teams ascent to the status of one of the premier club teams in Ulster and Ireland in recent years was the first visible sign that the footballing fortunes of the Saffron county were finally taking a turn for the better after generations of mediocrity- including going almost two decades without a single victory in the Ulster Senior football Championship.
Today is also the special date for school finals in soccer, rugby and gaelic football, with St. Malachys taking on La Salle in the soccer final, BRA facing Ballymena Academy in the rugby decider and St Colmans (Newry) taking on Omagh CBS in the gaelic football encounter. Good luck to all involved.
2009 was a memorable year for Antrim as the county finally made its way out of the basement division in the National League. More significantly, of course, the team went on to contest the Ulster Final for the first time since 1970, though the occasion would provide sobering evidence that the gap between Antrim and the top tier counties- in this case, Tyrone- remained extremely wide.
All of which has meant that the undefeated start to the Division 3 campaign to date has been somewhat surprising, and perhaps indicative of a new found resolve and self belief absent from Antrim teams for a generation. The manner of the Antrim victories to date- including trouncing fellow northern counties, Cavan and Fermanagh- are all the more impressive when it is considered that the numerous Antrim panellists from the St Galls club have yet to feature for the county in the National League campaign due to their club commitments (and this includes the troubled but talented CJ McGourty, who has made amends with the Bainisteoir and will be expected to feature once again in the Antrim panel.)
Victories over at least two of the three remaining league opponents from Leinster counties should be enough to see Antrim promoted to Division Two for 2011, where much stiffer opposition awaits. But before then, theres the small matter of a June appointment with the Red Hand county, which will provide the clearest yardstick yet of the real progress achieved by the Saffrons.
According to a BBC report, the Housing Executive has asked the police to investigate its inconsistent role in a site at Nelson Street, in north Belfast - which is now owned by the development company, Big Picture Developments - one of whose directors is the chairman of the Policing Board, Barry Gilligan. From the BBC report
For years, the Housing Executive opposed the commercial scheme, insisting the land was still designated for social housing. But recently it appeared to change its mind and wrote to planners telling them that it was “withdrawing the request for social housing at the scheme”. It is believed this letter will form part of the police investigation. After it was discovered, senior staff at the Housing Executive ensured the letter was withdrawn and its original position of opposition to the development was reinstated.
Cllr Brian Heading (SDLP) informs Slugger that celebrations in the village continued with their early start:
Apparently the band had its weekly practice event last night, a loop hole in the determination is the band walking into a field (Private Property); which is allegedly owned by H*****‘s father. As it is private property they can parade until the cows come home. ..Might be a chance the band could pull a fast one and not parade at all tomorrow night leaving a lot of police resources tied up.
Also, six are apparently “bound over” from previous indiscretions and may not want to chance it.
I spoke to a few members of the orange lodge today and they are not happy with the band or its past behaviour. If the determination is ignored by moving on to private property it will be the two fingered salute to the commission, the police and those hoping to build on good community relations.
And Will adds the Catholic Communications Office statement to “clarify media reporting on Cardinal Seán Brady”
1. The State’s first Child Abuse Guidelines came into effect in 1987 and the Church’s first guidelines Child Sexual Abuse: Framework for a Church Response, were published in 1996.
2. In late March 1975, Fr Seán Brady was asked by his bishop, Bishop Francis McKiernan, to conduct a canonical enquiry into an allegation of child sexual abuse which was made by a boy in Dundalk, concerning a Norbertine priest, Fr Brendan Smyth.
3. Fr Brady was then a full-time teacher at St Patrick’s College, Cavan. Because he held a doctorate in Canon Law, Fr Brady was asked to conduct this canonical enquiry; however he had no decision-making powers regarding the outcome of the enquiry. Bishop McKiernan held this responsibility.
4. On 29 March 1975, Fr Brady and two other priests interviewed a boy (14) in Dundalk. Fr Brady’s role was to take notes. On 4 April 1975, Fr Brady interviewed a second boy (15) in the Parochial House in Ballyjamesduff. On this occasion Fr Brady conducted the inquiry by himself and took notes.
5. At the end of both interviews, the boys were asked to confirm by oath the truthfulness of their statements and that they would preserve the confidentiality of the interview process. The intention of this oath was to avoid potential collusion in the gathering of the inquiry’s evidence and to ensure that the process was robust enough to withstand challenge by the perpetrator, Fr Brendan Smyth.
6. A week later Fr Brady passed his findings to Bishop McKiernan for his immediate action.
7. Eight days later, on 12 April 1975, Bishop McKiernan reported the findings to Fr Smyth’s Religious Superior, the Abbot of Kilnacrott. The specific responsibility for the supervision of Fr Smith’s activities was, at all times, with his Religious Superiors. Bishop McKiernan withdrew Brendan Smyth’s priestly faculties and advised psychiatric intervention.
“I think to some degree it’s different but it is the same as, for example dealing with street gangs in Brixton”
However the gang soundbite was raised much earlier by none less than Deputy McGuinness:
2.45 pm
As my colleague Martina Anderson said in the House earlier, those people describe themselves as an army. It is not an army that we are dealing with but a gang
Of course I’m not suggesting they compare notes…......
But on Tuesday, the court ruled there was no evidence that the ministers involved were motivated by improper political considerations. Nor that they acted on the grounds of political opinion or religious belief.
In short, this judgment looks to have cut the legs off any future attempt to judicially review the OFMDFM and to provide a carte blanche for meetings without officials and note takers present.
But never fear, if you disagree in the future with an OFMDFM decision, you dont need to turn to the courts, because our ministers, as Mr Justice Gillen notes are accountable to the Assembly where they are likely to be questioned and scrutinised. And we all know just how effective the Assembly has been at carrying out that job in the past.
This is partly to do with me being in a different time zone (ie, Washington) and partly to do with a spam attack on our registration process. It has nothing to do with the 4IP funding, as the Atticus column in the Sunday Times has suggested. In fact we hope that when the new site is with us in the next few weeks, that it will speed up and open up the commenting process more than it has been in this slow, slightly ‘provisional’ state we’ve been in for a few months now…
Policing has got to be ruthless cries the Newsletter, echoing their endless headlines of 30 years ago. In contrast, Henry warns against repeating the lethal errors of repressive legislation, internment, Bloody Sunday and later the criminalisation programme in the H-Blocks. The mistakes in state policy drove many hundreds, perhaps thousands, of young nationalists into the PIRA’s ranks. Superficially we have been here before. But the response to counter insurgency didnt start like that. Emerging out of communal violence it began with softly softly, no go areas, a briefly disarmed police force, and that identical phrase which Hugh Orde would have been wise to have avoided: an acceptable level of violence from Home Secretary Reginald Maudling. Mauding’s remarks in 1971 were taken as presaging moves towards a new political strategy, so the context is completely different. Everyone seems to agree that political change alone is not so to speak, the magic bullet for suddenly dissipating the residues of insurgency, although politics ought to be able to forestall a major upsurge. But in dealing with political violence, have we learned nothing and forgotten nothing?
Surely not. Policing and governance are transformed. We can only hope the transformation survives under pressure. Now that Justice powers are being transferred what can Sinn Fein do to help? An ideological contest among republicans seems a no win. As revolutionaries, the rejectionists ( as I prefer to call the dissidents) reject the ballot box in principle until they are dead or revolutionaries no more. Will mainstream republicans leave all initiatives entirely to the State apparatus or exploit their local networks to squeeze the rejectionists? ( And I don’t mean nutting or kneecapping). So far they’ve claimed little success.
If by one means or another, the test on the ground is passed, a steady flow of information will lead to arrests and an eventual collapse of rejectionist activity. In the meantime, unless mainstream republicans make a convincing case that they can deliver all this on their own, we should hear fewer kneejerk condemnations of intelligence gathering and stop and search. And if we’re looking for lessons from the past, although we have the residue of the past 30 years added on, the parallel worth examining is the border campaign of 1957-62, defeated not mainly by policing but by the will of the nationalist people. The option of internment south of the border (administered by Charles Haughey in 1962, the last Irishman to have imposed it), we can take to be no longer relevant.
Walsh doesnt yet know whether Ireland, Ireland! will be embraced as an alternative anthem, but hes hopeful. “Were completely at the whim of The Irish Times and the nation. Were not getting ahead of ourselves, but wed like them to sing it before the Scottish game this weekend.”
Ireland, Ireland, damp sod of earth
lost on the surf of the North Atlantic.
Ireland, Ireland, mountains and mist,
Vodka and chips, its so romantic.
Joyce and Heaney, Beckett and Wilde,
Bill OHerlihy, Dunphy and Giles,
Evans, Hewson, Mullen and Clayton,
Westlife and Jedward the pride of our nation!
Ireland, Ireland, once we were poor,
Then we were wealthy; now we are poor again.
Cows and horses, donkeys and sheep,
Munster and Leinster, Connacht and ******.
Chinese, Polish, Africans too,
Doing the jobs we dont want to do.
An Irish stew, a nation of nations,
Working for peanuts in petrol stations.
Ireland, Ireland, you are the best
Place to the west of Wales and Scotland.
Sometimes its heaven, sometimes its hell,
But Id rather be Irish than anything else.
It is notoriously difficult to get a clear picture of any controversial happening in an area in which paramilitaries are active. The bare bones of the ‘robbery’ in Meigh in south Armagh are bizarre to say the least. According to the BBC two men broke into the victims house and “demanded money from the man before shooting him twice in the legs. The men left empty-handed and are believed to have made off in a vehicle.”
But we understand there is some disquiet in the area over the ‘robbery’ story. One uncorroborated version Slugger has heard casts the ‘robbery’ as a punishment shooting for an incident that took place in nearby Dromintee. That’s something Slugger is no position to confirm. But it seems no less plausible than the robbery story.
So, like the economic benefits of ending partition, its not clear that the partys tax-and borrow plans would actually provide the resources for the stimulus it talks about. Adams suffered a bit of a monstering in a RTE radio interview with Richard Crowley about all this last Sunday, exposing once again his frailty on economic issues. When this happens to Enda Kenny, he gets crucified.
When Adams does it, it doesnt affect him within the party. This is partly because economic policy was never as important as the national question, and partly because most voters dont take Sinn Féin that seriously on economic policy. Thats one of the reasons why the party hasnt been able get beyond 10 per cent.
Cardinal Séan Brady is resisting calls for his resignation over his involvement in a 1975 canonical inquiry into allegations of sex abuse by Fr Brendan Smyth, during which the complainants, aged 10 and 14, “signed undertakings, on oath, to respect the confidentiality of the information-gathering process.” Brendan Smyth was convicted of 17 counts of sexual abuse 20 years later - and brought down an Irish government in the process. From an iol report
Asked why he did not see it as a moral obligation to ensure the police were alerted, the Catholic primate said today: “Yes, I knew that these were crimes, but I did not feel that it was my responsibility to denounce the actions of Brendan Smyth to the police.”
Cardinal Brady insisted that responsibility for Smyth was with the head of Smyths religious order at the Co Cavan abbey where he was sent after he was stripped of pastoral duties as a priest. “The responsibility for his behaviour rested with his religious superior at Kilnacrott,” he said. The cardinal said he did all that was asked of him by Dr McKiernan in relation to Smyth. “I did act, and act effectively, in that inquiry to produce the grounds for removing Fr Smyth from ministry and specifically it was underlined that he was not to hear confessions and that was very important.”
Meanwhile, as a separate Irish Times report notes - Monsignor Maurice Dooley, former Professor of Canon Law, said Cardinal Daly had “no obligation whatsoever” to report anything to the gardaí. “There is no law in Ireland or statute that requires that clergy report crimes to the police,” he added. Monsignor Dooley pointed to paragraph 1.16 of the Murphy report, saying: “it says quite clearly that the clergy, the bishops and so on, had no obligation to report anything to the police”. “Is it a sin against the law of God not to report matters to the police no I dont think so because there are certain people exempt from this moral obligation to report to the police,” he said. [added fuller quote]
However, in an interview with Irish broadcaster RTE last December, the cardinal said he, himself, would resign if he found that a child had been abused as a result of any managerial failure on his part.
“I would remember that child sex abuse is a very serious crime and very grave and if I found myself in a situation where I was aware that my failure to act had allowed or meant that other children were abused, well then, I think I would resign,” he said.
At that time, the cardinal apologised on behalf of the Church after an Irish government report revealed abuse over decades, a systematic cover-up by the Church and a lack of action by Irish police.
He said: “No-one is above the law in this country.
“Every Catholic should comply fully with their obligations to the civil law and co-operate with the Gardai (Irish police) in the reporting and investigation of any crime.”
The Irish adult voices of raped children are joined by American ones; people now grown up who were raped and abused by Fr. Smith when he was sent away from these shores and off to where he wasnt known and could start again. A Connecticut woman poignantly asks why she was repeatedly raped by a priest who had been sent to America instead of to the police. An Irish woman asks why no one went to the police. If they had, she might have been saved. Many might have been saved.
Last month, reports began to surface of historic abuse cases in several elite Jesuit boarding schools in Germany.
The German Catholic Church is now dealing with multiplying new reports of physical and sexual abuse, including some linked to a renowned choir once led by Pope Benedict’s brother, Fr Georg Ratzinger.
As the domino effect of reporting continues, the wave of abuse revelations reached the Netherlands by late February, with scores of victims coming forward.
By March, the scandal had spread to Switzerland, where 60 new cases have now come to light.
And in the past few weeks, more abuse cases have emerged in Austria and Poland.
This weekend, a Vatican spokesman denounced “aggressive” efforts by the media to personally implicate the Pope in the unfolding child abuse crisis as questions were raised about the handling of a priest accused of molestation in the Archdiocese of Munich and Freising when the future Pope was archbishop in the late 1970s and early 1980s.
Last Friday, the Pope met the President of the German Bishops’ Conference to discuss the wider sex abuse crisis, just as an archbishop in Austria was breaking ranks to call for a public discussion about the future of the mandatory celibacy rule for priests.
Some informed Vatican sources now predict that the text of Pope Benedict’s pastoral letter to the Irish church will need to be expanded to include churches across Europe as full realisation dawns that the clerical sex abuse crisis now facing the church is a European problem, not just an Irish one.
According to the News Letter Phil Coulter who wrote Ireland’s Call is open to writing a new song for the Northern Ireland football team. Unsurprisingly the suggestion of a new anthem appears to have somewhat polarised political opinion though Kenney Donaldson of the UUP seems to have started the proposal. Of course if God Save the Queen was replaced for the NI football team, it might set a precedent for other sporting organisations as suggested here on Ulster Times.
Last week Liam Clark’s column in the News Letter again addressed the issue of the Presbyterian Mutual Society. The new moderator elect Norman Hamilton has again suggested that: “We really do care about what happens to you but we can’t fix it.” The current moderator Stafford Carson of course conveniently forgot (or mentally reserved) the high value properties which the PCI owns and clearly has no intention of mortgaging, let alone selling to help the PMS savers: instead stating that the PCI only owned churches and halls and had no other assets. In addition, however, Liam Clarke is asking about the £42 million central investment portfolio and why none of it has been invested in the PMS, nor used to help the savers. Presbyterian moderators seem to have difficulties remembering money: or for that matter it seems certain passages of scripture such as the ninth commandment:
Thou shalt not bear false witness against thy neighbour.
And he said unto them in his doctrine, Beware of the scribes, which love to go in long clothing, and love salutations in the marketplaces,
And the chief seats in the synagogues, and the uppermost rooms at feasts:
Which devour widows houses, and for a pretence make long prayers: these shall receive greater damnation.
The dust has settled on the Policing and Justice vote and as Mick and others pointed out, despite the UUP’s decision not to support the vote there seems to have a conspicuous absence of the sky falling in on anyone’s heads. Now with the advantage of a little time it might be worth looking (somewhat less hysterically) at possible reasons why the UUP made the decision they did and what if any the political ramifications of these decisions may be.
The first suggestion might be to take the UUP at their word that they did not agree to the devolution of P&J for the reasons they claimed: namely that the executive is extremely dysfunctional and has no realistic ability to agree a programme for government that takes any remotely controversial decisions. There is no agreement on education which has been reduced to the state of a farce; a very black one when the fact is that it has caused confusion and despair for many parents and has resulted in children sitting more tests with less certainty than ever before. Genuinely having made such an unbelievable hash of education should the executive be given further power? Clearly much of the chaos has been driven by the ideological zealotry of Catriona Ruane but she is still there as large as life, as zealous and useless as ever. To be fair the favourite putative P&J minister, David Ford, a man lacking in any ideology it seems save that of his own self aggrandisement, presents less such problems. However, a combination of the high likelihood of P&J being led by the weakest minister (both politically and personally) in the United Kingdom and with his strings being pulled by such diametrically opposed parties as the DUP and Sinn Fein, is enough to make anyone outside the cosy cabal of Sinn Fein, the DUP and Mr. Ford uneasy.
However, whilst the UUP may have had good practical and principled reasons for opposing P&J devolution there is a significant feeling that there were also party political reasons for this recourse to principle. The UUP’s whole strategy in this may be an extension of the one I suggested some weeks ago: the Battle of the Nile strategy or that which Jim Molyneaux used relatively successfully in the 1980s and early 1990s (the incongruence of likening Nelsonian leadership to that of Emepys or Molyneaux’s is sufficiently amusing to bear repetition). Essentially this was (like Nelson at the Nile) to attack on both sides of ones opponents. For the UUP the idea is to offer unionist voters a party simultaneously more liberal and yet more hard line than the DUP. Molyneaux managed this by having leading members more liberal and more hard line; simultaneously more socially and economically left and right wing than the DUP. Duncan Shipley Dalton has very correctly pointed out that this strategy fell apart when any form of active move forwards was required and was correctly called by John Hunter Steady as she drifts but it remains an attractive concept for the UUP.
The UUP may, in their more deluded moments, feel with their alliance with the Conservatives that they may be able to achieve the same sort of result and produce a united unionist party by destroying the DUP. The UUP have consistently been seen as more liberal than the DUP from the time of Molyneaux onwards; Trimble having rapidly abandoned the hard liners who elected him. Furthermore their alliance with the Conservatives could be seen as a further example of becoming more liberal within a Northern Ireland context. Hence, the CU tie up could be a good way to gain that mythical beast of great electoral power: the garden centre Prod. It could also appeal to that sentiment most common amongst unionists within the Pale that Northern Ireland should be and indeed is as British as, if not Finchley, at least the leafier bits of greater Birmingham. Additionally if the CU project could produce in material voting form that other fantasy creature, the Unionist Catholic then the CUs would indeed be on the way to electoral power. Hence, the CU pact has the potential to further out left the DUP and maybe eat into the Alliance vote.
Such a strategy, however, depends on the strength of the two righteous mythical creatures, the unicorns of unionist fantasy: the Garden centre Prod and the unionist Catholic. Unionist analysts have long disagreed regarding the existence of these beasts and indeed a number of quests over the years to find and exploit their power have ended pretty tragically for all concerned:Franklins lost expedition to navigate the North West passage comes to mind as an analogy.
Set against the dangers of a Franklin typed disaster there are of course other strategies to gain unionist support back to the CUs and it is in this context that the most cynical analyses of the UUP decision to oppose P&J devolution are made. It is abundantly clear that a significant segment of the DUPs previous support is now very annoyed with their former party of choice. The double jobbing, dynasties and perception of arrogance all worked very strongly against the DUP in the European elections; now in addition Irisgate has been added to the mix. Most importantly, however, is the simple fact that many harder line unionists disapprove of the DUPs decision to share power with Sinn Fein and in June last year took their revenge on the party by voting for Allister. It is unlikely that much of that anger will have dissipated now that the DUP have been seen to have had to accept a deal which, whatever their protestations, looks like a defeat for them.
Jim Allister and the TUV were of course the main beneficiaries of the fall in DUP support at Europe. However, the very clear voting dynamic whereby TUV supporters transferred to the CUs was present. In the Westminster election the TUV will of course not stand in every seat and in addition there are seats where the UUP were close to the DUP in votes and as such some TUVists might lend their vote to the UUP to bash the DUP. The exact extent of that (especially the latter) part of the voting dynamic is difficult to assess and may be small. However, it is at the heart of the CUs (or more exactly the UUPs) desire to out right the DUP and capture some TUV support.
In that context opposing the devolution of P&J makes sense and if the suggestion can be put across that the reasons for opposing P&J are politically left (in terms of competence and opposing a sectarian carve up) as well as right of the DUP then it might have been and may yet be a cleverer tactic than many of its detractors within the DUP and indeed the media have suggested. It is possible that opposing P&J might gain TUV typed support without further endangering the Franklin-esque quest for those unicorns. Media commentators (with a number of honourable exceptions) have for many years now, been very poor at assessing the voting patterns of unionists and suggesting that the UUPs decision was so very flawed on P&J may be even more naive than those very commentators were suggesting that the UUP were.
However, although the plan may be a good one and may look like a Battle of the Nile, it could end up being more like the Lake Balaton Offensive, the last German advance of the Second World War where, desperate to regain the oil fields around the eponymous lake, the Germans made one last attack against the Russians and after a few brief gains were forced back yet again.
The reasons for such pessimism regarding the CUs chances are not simply in the potential the P&J decision has to annoy the unicorns but probably more significantly (like the Germans at Lake Balaton) the lack of resources available to the CUs. The candidates they have are not especially convincing and as I noted previously there is an apparent disconnect in the matching of the candidate and the seat in question. This is nowhere more stark than in Upper Bann where Harry Hamilton, local candidate and no doubt all round nice guy that he is, has his work cut out trying to persuade TUV types to support him over Simpson; even more so if the TUV do not run.
The problem for the CUs is their lack of talent and almost complete absence of strength in depth: a problem which of course afflicts all Northern Irelands political parties but is particularly evident for the CUs in view of their very considerable ambition; namely to overtake once again the DUP and become the major unionist party. Ideally, should Franklin return triumphant, along with added unicorns. A further related problem for the CUs is of course the DUPs incumbency of the seats in question and now since Lady Hermon will not be standing in North Down for them, they have no incumbent MP. Incumbency is a major advantage, apart from where the MP in question has been a major disaster (Strangford) or has failed to really gel with the constituency (South Antrim). In all the other seats where the CUs are targeting the DUP, they are taking on an at least semi competent incumbent. North Antrim of course will not have an incumbent but there unless the CUs can resurrect Lord Carson or Viscount Craigavon, it will be a battle between Jim Allister and Ian Paisley junior and the lack of a current MP is most unlikely to be of any real help to the CU project. Even the most ardent CU fantasy explorer has not claimed any significant unicorn sightings up in North Antrim.
The decisions the UUP made over P&J may have been in part both principled and those of low political cunning. However, a political party should try to increase the options and electoral base open to it whilst at the same time reducing the options open to its opponents (or rivals to use Fitzjameshorses excellent explanation). The decision on P&J may have been lambasted by the chattering classes and those in the current cosy cabal up at Stormont. However, the lack of executive competence may play fairly well to the more moderate potential CU voters (and any unicorns out there), whilst more traditional NI political views may please the TUVists (the fantasy ogres if one wants). Hence, it is just possible that with the Conservative tie up nailing down the space to the left of the DUP, the opposition to P&J devolution can be utilised as a device to open up support opportunities to the DUPs right.
In spite of the fact that the UUPs decision may have been far from a bad one, the reality remains that the CUs may not do very well at this election: that probably has a great deal more to do with their inherently weak position and talent base, along with some poor candidate / seat matches than it has with the supposedly awful decision to oppose the transfer of P&J.
After the failure of the Balaton offensive, Hitler ordered that the Leibstandarte SS Adolf Hitler remove their Adolf Hitler armbands as they had failed to fight properly. If the CUs latest battle is a failure no doubt some will try to pass the blame for the failure to the P&J decision. It will be as nonsensical as Hitlers hysterical order. However, when the T-34s, be they real or metaphorical, are about to overrun the bunker, rationality is often absent. Or turning back to Franklin: the main reason he failed was that he was about 100 years too early to have the necessary nuclear powered ice breakers.
28. The Committee has concluded that the key weakness and sole contributory factor to the near collapse of the Northern Ireland pig industry was the absence of appropriate communication to the Northern Ireland authorities by those in the Republic of Ireland, particularly on 6 December 2008. The Committee believes that the remissness of the Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Food in contacting the Minister for Agriculture and Rural Development in Northern Ireland on or before 6 December 2009 was a critical failure and proof that the cooperation heralded by the Department for Agriculture and Rural Development in the All Island Animal Health Strategy does not exist and that the evidence received during the inquiry proves that this strategy is not working.
29. The Committee heard the phrase with hindsight” on a number of occasions throughout the course of the inquiry. It is essential that those central to this incident take the opportunity to look back at their roles, and those that they interacted with, and critically assess their performance. It is equally a necessity that changes will be identified and that these changes need to be implemented with all urgency. Paramount, in the view of the Committee, is the streamlining of the process, including the number of statutory bodies and other agencies involved in the process. The Committee believes that this can be achieved through the establishment of an Incident Management Team.
30. The Committee heard from most of the organisations that they were content that their individual processes, on the whole, were successful and that the main objective, that is protecting the public health, was achieved. The Committee acknowledges this as being important. However, the Committee would draw attention to the fact that this incident did not have a happy ending” and that the Northern Ireland industry is still struggling with the ramifications of the incident, primarily the financial consequences that have to be absorbed. If such an incident occurs in the future, it is essential that these are considered and that a proportionate response that protects both the public health and the local and wider economies is taken. It is equally important that the industry is kept informed through a single communication source, such as the Incident Management Team.
31. The events leading up to and beyond 6 December 2008 have placed the Northern Ireland agricultural sector in a precarious position at a time whenever the pressures of the global economy are being widely felt by the industry. Whilst an aid package was eventually provided by the Northern Ireland Executive to the Northern Ireland industry, the Committee does not believe this to be sufficient, as the aid package was restricted to a very precise part of the industry. The Committee calls on the authorities in both jurisdictions to revisit their respective schemes, given the benefit of hindsight and assess how aid can be provided to those currently considered ineligible to ensure that the financial risks being faced by these businesses disposing of slurry, milk and retail materials are negated.
16. The Committee considers the absence of appropriate communication to be the most significant weakness identified during the course of the inquiry and that this was the single most critical contributory factor to the near-collapse of our industry in Northern Ireland.
17. The Committee believes that it is totally unacceptable for the Minister for Agriculture and Rural Development to learn of the total recall of Irish pork and pork products by chance whilst watching a news programme in the late evening of Saturday, 6 December 2009. This is despite a meeting having been held earlier that day between the Taoiseach, the Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Food, the Minister for Health and Children, the Chief Medical Officer, the FSAI and officials from the relevant statutory bodies in the Republic of Ireland.[5] The Committee believes that it should have been incumbent on the Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Food in the Republic of Ireland to have contacted the Minister for Agriculture and Rural Development in Northern Ireland immediately following this meeting. [added emphasis]
18. The Committee is particularly alarmed as this failure to communicate the seriousness of the situation and the unilateral decision to recall these products by the Irish authorities was taken despite being aware that a number of farms in Northern Ireland had received this bread and that some 9,000 live pigs are exported to Northern Ireland per week, representing approximately 18% of the total pigs slaughtered in the Republic of Ireland.[6]
19. The Committee has noted the very positive work that had previously been taken by officials in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland in respect of, for example, the All-Island Animal Health Strategy. However, the Committee remains concerned at the vast difference between the principles expressed in such strategies and processes against the practical outworkings that presented themselves during the first real test of these principles.
20. The Committee has also identified a number of other breakdowns in the communication processes and these are detailed as follows:
(a) The period between the confirmation of the test results and the initial contact with DARD;
(b) The identification of the Northern Ireland farms that had received the bread (Thursday, 4 December 2008) and communication of this to DARD (Friday, 5 December 2008). This presented a number of problems, including the fact that the contact was at too low a level, the initial contact did not contain any relevant details and that DARD were required to chase DAFF late into Friday afternoon for information regarding the incident;
(c) The FSAI contacted FSA UK in the first instance on Thursday 4 December 2008 but did not contact the FSANI directly. The FSANI was formally contacted by FSA UK two days later;
(d) The Minister for Agriculture and Rural Development contacting her counterpart in the Republic of Ireland on 17 December 2008 regarding the eligibility of processors in Northern Ireland for compensation and the formal communication from Ministers at a North South Ministerial Council meeting on 23 January 2009 stating that they were unable to do so; and
(e) Because the recall was ordered (but not communicated to DARD) on Saturday 6 December, there was a dearth of information available to producers, processors and consumers on Monday 8 December 2008. This affected the ability of DARD and other agencies to provide clear decisions to industry stakeholders at what was a critical time in the process;
21. The Committee has previously commented in respect of the numbers of organisations that were (or should have been) involved through this process. The Committee is of the view that this also contributed to the poor communication witnessed because, as has been proven during this incident, the more elaborate the means of communication, inevitably the more ineffective it becomes. This can be evidenced by the number of Northern Ireland beef producers presenting cattle at abattoirs on Monday 8 December only to be advised that these animals were not permitted to enter the food chain and by farm businesses unable to access accurate information from a number of DARD offices.
Declan Gormley, one of the non-executive directors sacked by the Northern Ireland Regional Development Minister from the Board of NI Water, is to seek legal advice. The BBC report has several quotes
“I do not agree with the decision and believe it was unmerited and without due cause,” [Mr Gormley] said. “I utterly refute any wrong doing on my behalf in discharging my duties as a non-executive director at Northern Ireland Water during my 20 months on the board. “At all times I have acted in accordance with my responsibilities as a company director, and reiterate that I have done nothing during my period on the board which would merit any sanction never mind dismissal.”
But Mr Gormley questioned how the independent review team had come to its conclusion.
“No specific act or omission of mine has been brought to my attention which leads me to question my conduct,” he said.
He also asked why he had lost his job while others who were involved in the same “collective decision making process” had not.
“In performing my duties as a Non Executive Director of NIW I challenged certain aspects of the process undertaken by the Independent Review Team.
“I find it regrettable that of the 28 people interviewed by the Independent Review Team that I am the only individual who has not had an agreed record of his meeting with the IRT included by them in the records of their enquiries, or incorporated into their findings.
“It should be equally noted that over 70% of the issues identified in the internal audit and subsequently included in the IRT review occurred before I joined the organisation.”
He said that since he joined the board, he was not aware of any contract that was not compliant with the company’s procurement protocols.