GE19: The Changing Faces of NI & what it means for the Unity discussion & Stormont’s return

The results of the Westminster election have ensured that, for the first time in the history of Northern Ireland, non-unionists are a majority of those elected to each of the four representative bodies in which we send our elected representatives: local government councils, Stormont, the European Parliament and Westminster. The significance of that can not be underestimated. Northern Ireland has changed. In 1983, 15 of the 17 MPs elected from the North were unionists, with Gerry Adams and John Hume …

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Ranking the Constituency Turnouts at Westminster Elections (2005-2017)

It is less than 48 hours from polling day for an election that has sparked unprecedented interest as measured by the number of people locally who have decided to ensure their name features on the electoral register to allow them the opportunity to cast their votes on Thursday. Figures released from the Electoral Office at the end of November confirmed that 235,000 people had applied to register to vote since the start of 2019, with 72,500 of them applying since …

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Ireland’s Future: Green shoots of hope & the need to plan for change.

Martina Devlin’s piece from yesterday’s Irish Independent has been reproduced below with the permission of the author. Martina appeared on the RTE podcast with Aine Lawlor on Thursday to discuss the Ireland’s Future letter and the unique context of this year’s Brexit election. When voters in the North go to the polls next month, the question facing them won’t be the subliminal one which harks to the past of ‘which tribe do you belong to?’ Instead, it will be a …

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♯LE19: DUP focus on consolidation and advances in key council areas

In 2014, the DUP confirmed their status as the largest party at local government level in Northern Ireland, becoming the largest party on six of the newly created eleven councils and the largest unionist party on every council except for Fermanagh and Omagh Council. Compared (notionally) to their performance at the final elections to the 26 district councils in 2011, the DUP performance in 2014 represented a loss of fifteen seats statewide, with the UUP the chief beneficiaries. The TUV …

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#LE19: Will Alliance’s story be one of frontier gains, heartland consolidation or retreats?

The 1973 local government election was the first occasion in which the Alliance Party, founded in 1970, tested support at the ballot box. In that election, they secured representation on 20 of the 26 councils, winning 63 seats in the local government contest. Four years later (1977), they would increase their overall representation to 70 seats, but would lose a presence on three councils. The 1981 election was a rude awakening for Alliance and set the parameters for how they …

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#LE19: Sinn Fein set for significant gains in next month’s council elections

Unless something dramatic and unforseen happens in the period of less than three weeks between now and polling day, it is almost certain that Sinn Fein are on course to have a record performance at local government level in May’s election. Looking across the 11 councils, it is clear that Sinn Fein could tack on an additional 20+ seats on their 2014 tally if the twin factors of a heightened nationalist turnout and swing from SDLP to Sinn Fein that …

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LE19: Will Aontú make a breakthrough in 2019?

One of the most interesting aspects of the local government elections next month will be to see if Aontú, the pro-Life Republican party set up by former Sinn Féin TD, Peadar Tóibín, can establish a foothold at local government level across Ireland. The Meath-based TD was for long one of the most accomplished Sinn Féin media performers, regularly appearing on current affairs programmes in the South. However, his relationship with the party soured over his refusal to accept and adhere …

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LE19: How the last local govt. elections have already helped shape the narrative

Five years ago, I wrote this piece after the 2014 local government election. The primary victors in that contest were the UUP and the TUV, who succeeded in delivering a number of blows to the DUP. The UUP return of 88 seats amounted to a notional increase of 9 seats in terms of percentage share of seats under the new 11 council model in 2014 when compared to the previous 26 council model. The TUV performance was particularly striking, with …

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Are the SDLP really calling for the unconditional return of Stormont?

The suspicions of northern nationalists that Micheal Martin’s flirtation with all-Ireland politics is motivated exclusively by a desire to counter Sinn Fein’s Southern advances will not have been allayed by the tentative FF/SDLP alliance’s initial bustle of activity. Prior to Colum Eastwood’s ill-conceived invocation of Donald Tusk’s ‘special place in Hell’ remark during his weekend speech, the SDLP leader had already agreed and published a set of principles with his Fianna Fail counterpart. The announcement of the five joint Brexit …

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A Fianna Fáil partnership offers the only hope for a return to relevance for the SDLP

Yesterday, the SDLP took the first concrete step towards a merger with Fianna Fáil and a future in all-Ireland politics. It was not a decision taken lightly, and the public bickering between opposing factions before and after the conference indicates that the road taken by the Eastwood-Mallon leadership is one that will see the party lose a number of its elected representatives and members along the way. For the record, the party leadership has been at pains to state that …

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UFU President declaration that a No-Deal Brexit would be an “absolute disaster” indicates a restless DUP base in spite of MPs’ chippy bravado

The news that the four pro-Remain parties had issued a joint statement during the week urging the EU “to remain firm” in their stated position of not reopening the Withdrawal Agreement will not have overly vexed Arlene Foster and her party colleagues. However, today’s unambiguous statement from the President of the Ulster Farmers Union, Ivor Ferguson, declaring a No-Deal Brexit to be “an absolute disaster” will certainly have been noted by the party leader. The dire warning was issued during …

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Fianna Fail/SDLP merger downgraded to a policy-sharing exercise. It appears the north must wait (again).

The much vaunted, anticipated and protracted news regarding the apparent coming together of Fianna Fail and the SDLP looks set to be reduced to a policy sharing exercise in the short-term later this week. A number of news outlets are reporting tonight that Fianna Fail are downplaying talk of a merger or alliance, emphasising instead that the initiative looks set to merely involve the sharing of a number of policies. The Irish Independent has even quoted a senior Fianna Fail …

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Beyond Brexit Waterfront conference to focus on rights and the future

It’s getting hard to remember politics before Brexit, a word that did not even exist prior to 2012. It has come to dominate British and Irish politics, with our own local political stalemate firmly relegated to a secondary concern for political leaders into the forseeable future. Concerns about the backstop and a hard border have tended to dominate much of the discussions in an Irish context, overshadowing many of the other concerns that exist with regard to how Brexit can …

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From triggering to extending Article 50, there’s a scarcity of good news & options for the embattled May

Two and a half years on from the decision to Brexit, there is no greater clarity about what that actually means nor the form it will actually take. What has become clear in the interim is that Britain’s political class is hopelessly and haplessly divided, devoid of political leaders on either side of the benches with sufficient stature, cunning and guile to navigate a clear course ahead. On the BBC’s Inside Politics programme tonight, former Taoiseach Bertie Ahern didn’t hold …

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Irish footballers across the water by numbers

In just a few months, both Irish international football teams will embark on their latest campaigns to qualify for a major tournament, the 2020 Euros. This comes in the aftermath of the sacking of Martin O’Neill from his position as manager of the Republic of Ireland side following a lacklustre campaign in the newly devised UEFA Nations League tournament, which saw the Republic lose twice to Wales whilst drawing twice with Denmark. Michael O’Neill’s Northern Ireland side fared even worse, …

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‘Do as I say, not as I did’: From a distance, Robinson seeks to provide direction to a rudderless Unionism

Almost exactly six years ago, Peter Robinson addressed his party’s annual conference and delivered the following lines as part of his leader’s speech in November 2012 as reported in The Detail at the time: “In this decade I believe we have been presented with unionism’s greatest opportunity. And this time our purpose is not to defeat, but, by words and deeds, to persuade.” “That means challenging ourselves….it means building a society where everyone feels equally valued….we must look outward beyond …

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1,000 sign Letter to Leo with the message: Protect our rights

The publication of a letter in today’s Irish News, signed by 1,000 prominent figures from across northern nationalist society, has as its primary focus ensuring that the Irish government continues to work to protect rights endangered as a result of Brexit. The content of the letter speaks to the concerns amongst Irish citizens residing in the north about the potential impact of Brexit in a practical sense. These include matters relating to education, health, mutual recognition of qualifications, human rights …

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Ireland’s Django Unchained: Black 47 finally brings An Gorta Mor to the big screen.

On Friday night, I was in attendance for a screening of Black 47, Lance Daly’s film set during the bleakest chapter in Ireland’s history. It is a powerful story, with lead roles for James Frecheville, Stephen Rea, Jim Broadbent and Hugo Weaving. That the Great Hunger has not previously provided the focus for a major film production is somewhat surprising, not least given how the traumatic episode led directly to the creation of the large Irish Diaspora in the USA. …

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Brexit-Induced Fear And Discontent Growing Amongst Civic Nationalism

Niall Murphy, one of the leading figures behind the open letter from civic nationalism to An Taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, last December, has written an article on Eamonn Mallie’s site setting out in stark terms the detrimental consequences of Brexit for people living in Northern Ireland. In particular, Murphy has picked up a parliamentary contribution from the President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, which outlines specific examples of Brexit’s impact: A Parliamentary response from Claude Juncker to Martina Anderson MEP …

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Gestures & Respect: Can the Orange accept the equal place of all Others in a shared & diverse Ormeau? If not, when will the PSNI rise to the challenge?

The news that GAA members and Orangemen engaged in a cultural visit exchange at the weekend was a positive development following on from the negative announcement in late May that loyalists and the DUP had cynically decided to ignore the views of the vast majority of residents in the upper Ormeau community and to arbitrarily decide to drape the district in loyalist flags for a quarter of the year (and, more than likely, much longer than that, going on previous …

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