Early election is a big advantage to the two larger parties…

Worth watching this periscope from Bill White and Basil McCrea from last night. Two main points:

  1. there’s a surfeit of votes in the Referendum of June over the last Assembly election of May. Bill speculates that if that comes out, then it may make a significant difference to the outcome. Given that was a larger than expected Leave vote, that might have some interesting effects.
  2. an early election is advantageous to the larger parties, so don’t expect too much in the way of talks before they go to the polls. We see already that both Sinn Fein and the DUP are already busy trying to frame election as anti each other (which is, as they say, ‘good for business’).
  • johnny lately

    ” We see already that both Sinn Fein and the DUP are already busy trying to frame election as anti each other”

    Elections to what Mick. Sinn Fein have been perfectly clear, the British government and unionism have until the 16th to decide if they are serious about power sharing and without movement on the commitments unionism and the British government already made but reneged on there wont be any power sharing institutions.

  • Karl

    The larger than expected Leave vote will galvanise the younger non voter to engage in the process. Expect the turnout figures to be higher than the referendum. Big call but young people have come alive to the restrictions that a hard Brexit would impose on their futures and theyre not going to stand by on this one.

  • Mike the First

    Erm…to the Assembly?

  • T.E.Lawrence

    Now that is the real and very dangerous game of chicken that both SF and DUP will play creating a political vacuum ! One can only hope that the current youth within them deprived working class districts do not fall for such a dead end game of poker and pass the baton straight back to such wonderful leaders who would lead them into sectarian conflict !

  • Anthony O’Shea

    And surprisingly the mood in the ground is that even if the whole show including the GFA itself comes crashing down, so be it.

  • Dan

    Foster doing everything but take personal responsibility for her own incompetence.
    Arrogant woman.

  • J D

    Nationalism doesn’t need Stormont. We’ve proven you can’t work with Unionism. We knew that going in, but it needed to be conclusively demonstrated to the island.

    Now that it has, collapsing it over the DUP’s intransigence is the best outcome we could ever have hoped for.

    Oh and Trump is apparently a big fan of Ireland being united. Unionism is isolated, friendless, powerless, aged and dying off. Just like the UK!

  • Jag

    Will be surprised if SF get a seat they’re so inept. This election should be about one thing and one thing only, the renewable heating initiative and every time a SFer opens their gob, they should be ordered to use the following words at least once: pellet, boiler, £400m, £55k a day (or £85k a day if you think £610m is the true overspend), £38 an hour, finance minister at the time Sammy Wilson, ministerial responsibility, heating empty barns, fraud, audit, corruption, love glasses, misogyny, chicken, brazen, Jonathan Bell.

    And only when they have used those words should they be allowed use the words arrogant, Liofa, respect, equality, Irish language and what have you.

  • johnny lately

    What’s the point in making any more agreements with people who won’t honour them. Expect calls for a border poll rather than elections.

  • johnny lately

    Opportunity knocks T.E there has never been a better time for that elusive border poll and there definitely won’t be a return to more of the same at Stormont.

  • Mark Anderson

    I wonder with PBP do as well in West Belfast as suggested in the Periscope this time round. 8,299 voted for Gerry Carroll who was pro Brexit, over 23,000 voted for remain in the West.

  • hotdogx

    I hope you are right Karl, A girl rang up Nolan this morning who had never voted as she was agnostic on all of this but now shes going to vote. A lot of these non voters and most seem to be on the nationalist side may come out to vote. Even Stephen Nolan cant understand the sheer brazenness of Arlene or the DUP. Gregory campbell refusing to apologise! We are in uncharted territory, Trimble himself said it this morning. There has never been a better time in Irish history to campaign for a UI and a border poll. If SF comes out on top with DUP second then it could happen. SF had nothing to loose anyway, their mandate was insufficient against the DUP, the way they saw it they thought they couldn’t do worse than last time.An election may increase their mandate.

  • Zorin001

    Turns out this is all a massive con by the Shinners to get more British soldiers in the dock.

    Thank you Sammy and Nigel, where would I be without you.

    (The big Orange War Drum is out already)

  • john millar

    Nationalism doesn’t need Stormont.

    Same (and perhaps even more) for “unionism”

    No time servers on the hill all that lovely employment for the political class –Lovely

  • MainlandUlsterman

    what percentage do you think you might get in it?

  • AntrimGael

    If anyone believes Foster and the DUP will take a hit in the coming election they are deluded. The vox-pop from Enniskillen on BBC Newsline proves that. Unionists there were 100% behind her with one woman quoted as saying “Why should SHE bow down to that other crowd?”.
    The DUP loves the insular bigotry and sectarianism of elections here as they are so comfortable and at home with it. By the time an election comes around RHI/NAMA/Red Sky/ Charter NI etc will be forgotten. The DUP will have played the Orange card so wonderfully by then that Norma and William will be programmed as usual to vote on keeping “Themmun Taigy, Feniany” types out.

  • OneNI

    So without power sharing where do SF go?

  • OneNI

    So without Stormont there is just direct rule?
    Where did you hear Trumpie was into a United Ireland – this week or last?

  • J D

    Why would Unionism prefer joint authority to the assembly?

  • john millar

    “Why would Unionism prefer joint authority to the assembly?”

    The clue is in the badge “unionist”

    Run by direct rule via a glorified county council— no need for all the panjandrums and trappings of “Stormont” save a fortune

  • john millar

    “The DUP will have played the Orange card so wonderfully by then that Norma and William will be programmed as usual to vote on keeping “Themmun Taigy, Feniany” types out.”

    A sound analysis