Wales now experiencing a mild dose of ‘buyer’s regret’?

Fascinating results from the Welsh Political Barometer poll. I doubt it was the taunting by Northern Ireland fans… More likely a post ref reminder that large parts of the post-industrial economy in Wales is sustained by EU structural funds now hang by a wafer thin Tory (neo-Thatcherite?) thread.

Or just plain old morning after blues. Here’s the headline figures:

Remain: 46%

Leave: 41%

Would Not Vote: 8%

Don’t Know: 5%

In his analysis, Roger Scully notes:

…there is not much overall change. But that which has occurred is in the direction of growing support for the idea of the UK remaining in the EU – roughly a six percentage point swing in this direction since the referendum. The key words there, though, are “since the referendum”. Unless those supporting continued EU membership can find some way of over-turning or re-running the vote, their views may now count for very little.

When we look at the details of the results, we find that while nearly all those (fully 97%) of those who indicate that they voted Remain in the referendum still hold to this position, only 86% of those who voted for Leave do so. There appears to be a small cohort of voters who voted to Leave, but who may now be experienced what some in the media have termed ‘Bregret’. [Emphasis added]

Are the Welsh entertaining any hopes (false or otherwise) of bidding for independence? Nope, not really..

Yes: 15%

No: 65%

Would Not Vote/Don’t Know: 20%

Roger goes on to note:

This is almost exactly the same as it was when the question was asked in September 2014. In short, there has been no rise at all in support for independence. Even a (narrow) majority of Plaid Cymru supporters are actually opposed to the idea.

 

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