Wales now experiencing a mild dose of ‘buyer’s regret’?

Fascinating results from the Welsh Political Barometer poll. I doubt it was the taunting by Northern Ireland fans… More likely a post ref reminder that large parts of the post-industrial economy in Wales is sustained by EU structural funds now hang by a wafer thin Tory (neo-Thatcherite?) thread.

Or just plain old morning after blues. Here’s the headline figures:

Remain: 46%

Leave: 41%

Would Not Vote: 8%

Don’t Know: 5%

In his analysis, Roger Scully notes:

…there is not much overall change. But that which has occurred is in the direction of growing support for the idea of the UK remaining in the EU – roughly a six percentage point swing in this direction since the referendum. The key words there, though, are “since the referendum”. Unless those supporting continued EU membership can find some way of over-turning or re-running the vote, their views may now count for very little.

When we look at the details of the results, we find that while nearly all those (fully 97%) of those who indicate that they voted Remain in the referendum still hold to this position, only 86% of those who voted for Leave do so. There appears to be a small cohort of voters who voted to Leave, but who may now be experienced what some in the media have termed ‘Bregret’. [Emphasis added]

Are the Welsh entertaining any hopes (false or otherwise) of bidding for independence? Nope, not really..

Yes: 15%

No: 65%

Would Not Vote/Don’t Know: 20%

Roger goes on to note:

This is almost exactly the same as it was when the question was asked in September 2014. In short, there has been no rise at all in support for independence. Even a (narrow) majority of Plaid Cymru supporters are actually opposed to the idea.


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  • Anglo-Irish

    According to one report I read Wales voted leave because they blamed the EU for the problems in the British Steel industry by allowing cheap Chinese steel to flood the market.

    Obviously unaware that the UK – looking for Chinese investment in projects such as Hinkley Point – were one of those countries which prevented the EU bringing in tariffs.

    In fact the number of voters who voted without a full grasp of the facts is a little disconcerting.

    If it wasn’t serious it would actually be quite amusing.

  • Kevin Breslin

    They bought the nonsense of thinking a Brexit would save the UK steel industry… all they can do now is hold the local Leave liars to account for their delusions.

    The way Northern Ireland has to do with the local Leave liars who promised no customs checks.

  • Anglo-Irish

    The government have little concern over the manufacturing or steel industry in this country if their actions, as opposed to their words are taken into consideration .

    When the proposed nuclear facility at Hinkley Point was first discussed the components were going to be manufactured in France because according to the government this country lacked the expertise and capacity.

    Sheffield Forgemasters CEO went ballistic and pointed out that Forgemasters produce components for the British nuclear submarines and that we could manufacture 80% of the components required here in Sheffield.

    The government then backtracked and a face saving statement was agreed.

  • terence patrick hewett

    Buyers-buyers regret will be next.

  • Colm Heaney

    And yet from the same article when the EU is mentioned:

    “And please imagine a scenario where the rest of the UK left the European Union but Wales could remain a member of the European Union if it became an independent country. If a referendum was then held in Wales about becoming an independent country and this was the question, how would you vote? Should Wales be an independent country?”

    The results to this question were:

    Yes: 28%
    No: 53%
    Would Not Vote/Don’t Know: 20%

  • Obelisk

    These ‘Bregret’ stories do little more than feed my sense of schadenfreude.
    What’s the point in dwelling on this? What is done is done and we all have to endure the consequences of that decision.

    Wales will have to bear the burden like the rest of us.

  • ted hagan

    Never mind Wales, the idiots are Arlene Foster and her clowns such as Sammy Wilson and on the UU side Trimble and Taylor, who must be gulping deep breaths by now. The whole thing is an absolute shambles.

  • Anglo-Irish

    Back in May Farage said that whilst a 30%to70% result would end it, a 48% to 52% result would mean ” unfinished business by a long way “.

    Obviously that was when he thought that it would go the other way.

    Well it was even closer than that so what’s changed?

  • Declan Doyle

    With respect Anglo, UK voters had a full six months to arm themselves with the required information. The poll was not sprung on them out of nowhere and while the debates were messy occasions that is no excuse for ignorance before one casts ones vote.

  • Declan Doyle

    28% in favour with with 20% don’t know is not a bad starting point for PC should they wish to jump on it.

  • Obelisk

    Because it’s much easier to change a status quo than preserve it. He clearly meant that in a decade or so he and his chums would be back for a second crack…pressure for a second referendum.

    Except he won, and what was to have been preserved will now be untangled. And putting everything back together again will be nearly impossible.

    I don’t think England will rejoin the EU in my lifetime, if ever, because firstly the potential loss of Scotland would remove a large number of pro-EU voters from a potential ‘rejoin movement’.

    Secondly, a rejoin referendum won’t be on Britain’s current terms but the terms offered to it as a newly applying state. Which means the Euro and Schengen. How many remain votes today would be cast in favour of that even twenty years down the line?

  • Anglo-Irish

    Fully agree that there was no excuse for ignorance, didn’t prevent a whole load of people from exhibiting it though did it?

    I’m not talking about Brexit voters in general here, no doubt many thought it through and decided that they want out, fair enough, not sure what they were basing their confidence of future success on but that’s only my opinion, which isn’t worth any more than theirs.

    The ones I’m referring to are the numerous leave voters that have come out since and stated that they only voted that way to ” give the politicians a bloody nose ” and they ” hadn’t realised that it would turn out like this “.

    Then the ones who thought that it would be a magic wand to halt immigration not taking into consideration that in order to gain access to the single European market any trade agreement would mean accepting free movement.

    The ones who kept on about sovereignty ignoring the fact that we have taken part in numerous wars whilst members of the EU and that no country can be a member of any trade bloc without accepting the rules of that organization.

  • Declan Doyle

    I agree with almost all of what you say. Here in the free state as you know we have a referendum almost every week and there are a cohort who will vote to hurt the government rather than focus on the actual issue; cutting off nose to spite face syndrome.
    However, the majority appear to vote in accordance with their conscience. In all it seems that Brexit was carried in England by a sizeable majority and I think it is fair that those voters are respected regardless of their motivations.
    England it seems is anxious to break out on its own and while that causes much consternation and instability for both Europe and the UK, it might work out to the benefit of all. An Independent Scotland and United Ireland might flow from it which could usher in a new dawn in relations between these islands, fairer and more balanced. Who knows ?

  • Anglo-Irish

    Where are you getting ” He clearly meant that in a decade or two ” from?

    It certainly didn’t come across like that to me ” it would mean unfinished business by a long way ” sounds like game on to my mind.

    There is a good chance what may happen is that negotiations will take place and the terms of the agreement between the UK and the EU following a full exit will be put to the electorate.

    Once it is made clear that continued trading as before will mean retaining free movement of people and the alternative to that is explained clearly then a second referendum shouldn’t be ruled out.

  • Anglo-Irish

    I disagree that 3.8% is a ” sizeable majority ” and Nigel Farage would have agreed with me before the vote when he stated that he didn’t think that a 4% majority would be enough to settle the matter.

    The campaigns ran by both sides in the debate were atrocious.

    The Brexit camp appealed to the worst in people xenophobia and jingoism were the bulwark of their campaign.

    The remain camp were totally incompetent, instead of selling the positives of being part of the largest richest trade bloc in the world they decided to try to scare everyone into remaining.

    Apparently they employed Chicken Licken famous for it’s ‘Sky is Falling IN!!! ‘ campaign success to head up the Remain team.

    Threatening and using negative tactics only serves to turn people against you. I was on the remain side and was constantly annoyed by the crap they were dishing out.

  • Obelisk

    I figured he would see it in the same way the Scottish Nationalists did following their defeat. That he’d prepare the ground for a few years, whip up more fury against the European Union and then apply maximum to secure a second referendum if he could. That process would take a few years, and a decade or two sounds a reasonable timeframe.

    Alas, the Leave side won.

    As for a second referendum, I can’t see how. There is only so much the European Union can concede before the price of keeping Britain in just isn’t worth it in the long term, because it undermines the European project.

    That’s one of the main problems with some of the Leave side’s promises, they themselves despise the EU so much that they simply cannot conceive that some of it’s members will choose to suffer limited economic damage in order to preserve the wider Union. Hence the repeated references to the interests of German car manufacturers as to why the UK will inevitably get a good deal whereas I would wager that the EU governments will be more inclined to punish the UK to dissuade other states from leaving. Sure, Angela Merkel is playing good cop in these negotiations but it remains to be seen where she will be next year following the German elections.

    And besides, a deal will only be worked out once the UK triggers article 50 and the EU won’t discuss a deal until it triggers that article. Once triggered, exit is unstoppable.

    A second referendum would therefore be pointless, as it would be a choice between the deal offered and WTO rules.

  • Anglo-Irish

    Well we’re both guessing about Farage’s intentions, but as he’s a one trick pony who’s just admitted as much by leaving the field I think he’d have gone at it like a dog with a bone shouting about over 16 Million being on his side.

    The problem with the theory that ” They need us more than we need them” is that it isn’t true.

    Confusing the fact that the UK is the EU’s biggest single customer with the fact that that only represents 16% of the EU’s exports and that figure is divided between 27 countries gives a false conclusion.

    The EU takes 44% of all our exports, we have no option other than to do what it takes to retain that market.

    When you consider that the UK imports 7% of Germany’s total exports and 7% of Frances the difference in negotiating power is apparent.

    Ireland would be in the worst position as the UK is it’s second biggest market after the USA.

    You think that the EU give a crap about Ireland taking a hit if they want to make an example of the UK?

    They will want to make an example and if it were me I’d go after the UK’s financial services, the only sector in which the UK have a surplus rather than a deficit.

    Insist that all major financial transactions in the EU are handled by a EU based organization and see how that plays out.

    As for the claim that once triggered Article 50 is unstoppable where does it say that?

    I was under the impression that Article 50 is vague ( possibly deliberately so ) and an agreement to halt the process and revert to EU membership under the original or even slightly amended rules would be possible.

    This is man made legislation we are talking about not tablets of stone, anything is possible.

  • StevieG

    I don’t get it…Are you saying it does not matter, or is not real?
    The vote and result is real (regardless of voter ignorance – they all count!), but so is Buyer’s regret.
    For the worse (IMO), we need to leave and economically (and geographically) we are in a worst case scenario – no real influence as to how to effect policy from the UK except getting lucky, corporation tax as a tactic is dead (if you believed in this anyway but it has come at a cost), investment and FDI in decline and now less attractive – so why would Buyer’s regret not be real? – regardless, we are landed in it.

  • chrisjones2

    Forgive me but Nuclear Submarine parts are strategic defence therefore under EU rules we can require them to be made in UK. Power stations aren’t so under EU rules its an OJEC tender isn’t it?

  • chrisjones2

    “Buyers regret” – the feeling after every NI election?

  • Anglo-Irish

    Not the point.

    When the original deal with EDF and the Chinese was being discussed it was claimed by the government Industry Minister Anna Soubry that British companies didn’t have the capacity to provide components.

    The French were going to be supplying without any opportunity for British firms to quote.

    Only after Forgemasters CEO backed up by a local MP kicked up a stink was an opportunity to supply British manufactured components provided.

    Good to know Westminster has the interests of the ‘Northern Powerhouse ‘ constantly in it’s thoughts.

  • Reader

    Anglo-Irish: and Nigel Farage would have agreed with me before the vote when he stated that he didn’t think that a 4% majority would be enough to settle the matter.
    So, Farage was just like the SNP, who didn’t regard defeat by a 10% margin as the end of the matter.

  • Anglo-Irish

    When you have a substantial number of people on your side (in this case over 16 Million ) and you are hearing of regret and wishful thinking hindsight among the other side it would be unthinkable to just let it go.

    Who knows, as the full implication begins to sink in there may well be an overwhelming demand for a rerun.

    The idea that a decision ( that is non binding on parliament ) has been taken and then when it turns out to be against the country’s interest once the facts of renegotiation are clear it still has to be implemented makes no sense.

    On the other hand of course it could turn out wonderfully for us.

    When we turn up at the negotiating table the EU representatives may greet us with open arms cheery smiles, hugs and champagne and ask us what can they do for us as nothing will be too much trouble.

    I’m sure they won’t try to take advantage of this situation.

  • Kevin Breslin

    Please, you really think every weapon in the UK arsenal is sourced by 100% British raw materials, 100% British manufacturing,100% British engineering? … You’d be lucky if you had just 100% British assembly these days.

  • Roger

    Agreed. I followed the debates particularly on BBC Radio Ulster. If it’s anything to go by, the people of UKNI and, indeed, all of the UK had ample opportunity to form a view. They did so. Voted out. Out means out. Out they should go.
    If it were a referendum in Ireland, no doubt there would be a re-run but as you’ve said, Ireland has referendums every other week…I think we expect something better from the UK.

  • Roger

    I don’t think the Scots or the UKNI people have the liathroidi to go for that

  • Declan Doyle

    The referendums are a different animal in the Free State as they always are constitutional. The two times reruns have occurred the people have fallen in line with the status quo eventually but neither were as seismic as the Euro Ref over in the UK. Lets hope now the UK breaks up peacefully.

  • Declan Doyle

    Let’s see

  • Roger

    Agree that Art 50 notice could be brought to an end:
    – by UK unilaterally if the UK decided it wanted to remain a member without any re-negotiation of anything;
    -if all 27 plus the UK negotiated something and they all agreed that with that negotiated outcome, the UK could remain in, they could unanimously agree;
    -if nothing got agreed during the 2 years and the UK did not withdraw its notice, the UK would be out on the second anniversary of the date on which it gave the notice,

  • Roger

    Probably the same level of support for independence there as there would be if one ran a poll in County Donegal asking them about independence as a separate country and immediate, make-believe EU membership, ignoring the practical impossibility of that as clear from Scotland vote

  • Roger

    have similar questions been put to the people of County Dorset ?
    would the numbers for independence with immediate EU membershp be any different there ?

  • Declan Doyle

    I don’t think Dorset is constituted as a country within the UK so I doubt they would be asked.

  • Anglo-Irish

    Which is probably why there is a reluctance among some to trigger Article 50.

    If it’s dragged out long enough and something occurs ( election? ) to change peoples minds then the referendum which is non binding on parliament can simply be disregarded.

    Once triggered it presumably gets a little more complicated but should still be possible.

    The problem then might be that if all the other 27 have to agree to the withdrawal we may have to agree to some condition that we’d prefer not to.

    All in all using the old Irish ‘Long finger’ is probably wise at this stage.

    On the other hand Andrea Leadsom has promised to trigger it immediately if she wins and whilst looking unlikely at the moment it’s not over yet.

  • Roger

    Wales was annexed to England centuries ago. It is not even a separate jurisdiction….

  • Roger

    There have been more than two re-runs and variable results. Ireland, presumably the jurisdiction you are referring to, said no/yes to divorce; no/no to FTTP etc and I’m not able to describe what they’ve said about abortion.

  • Roger

    I think staying in EU would have been wise, so in that sense, no change like you’ve suggested isn’t something I could disagree with. But the UK is supposed to be a democratic country. The people spoke etc.
    I also think triggering it immediately is the ‘decent thing’ to do for the rest of the EU, who can’t be blamed for the UK’s decision. The rest of the EU want the process to get on.

  • Anglo-Irish

    ‘Supposed to be a democratic country’, describing the UK as a democracy is stretching the term virtually to breaking point.

    The FPTP voting system is one of the least democratic voting systems available.

    No single political party has formed a government in the UK since WW2 with even 50% of all votes cast, and the Labour party won an election in 2005 with a working majority with only 35.2% of votes cast .

    The referendum was democratic, but democracy hasn’t been a particular priority of the country previously and the referendum was fought on lies, misinformation and appeals to fear and loathing.

    Now that it has dawned on some of the Brexiteers,( including some of their leaders by the looks of things ) what the result may bring maybe a sober reflection of the giddy night before is in order.

    Agree it’s an inconvenience for the rest of the EU but as we’ve been a pain in the arse since we joined hopefully they will bear with us a little longer.

  • Declan Doyle

    Flag, anthem, census data and language says different. While many people do not respect the Welsh and Scots as distinct nationalities within the UK, the people themselves are pretty sure of what they are.

  • Declan Doyle

    That’s the way the constitution works.

  • Roger

    You reckon? I reckon support for independence for Dorset and Dorset nationhood would be about the same as the Wales region.

  • Roger

    Couldn’t agree with that. The U.K. Is a democratic place. Not a perfect place no doubt.

  • Roger

    The U.K. Is a country. Wales is one of its regions, annexed to a jurisdiction in the UK called England. Dorset like Wales is a region or county of England. Dorset isn’t a jurisdiction either. Dorset folk are proud of their Dorset ways.

  • Declan Doyle

    You reckon? Maybe something more imperial would be more convincing. Unionists ‘reckon’ all sorts of things, usually they are wrong.

  • Roger

    Surely you and I can at least agree that Dorset folks views on independence ought to be known and their identity accepted ?

  • Anglo-Irish

    Then we must have very different views on what constitutes democracy.

    As I said in every single general election since 1945 more voters have chosen to vote for parties other than the one which formed the government.

    In 2005 Tony Blair formed a government which held 355 seats out of a total of 646.
    Of the total votes cast 64.8% of the electorate had voted for parties other than Labour, the FPTP system isn’t fit for purpose, it does not reflect the democratic wishes of the people.

    Which is the only thing that is required from a voting system.

    Add in the fact that we have an unelected upper house which is unique in being the only one in the world with more people sitting in it than sit in the parliament.

    Add in the fact that we have an unelected head of state who has a private meeting with the PM every Tuesday when the Commons is in session.

    These meetings are in order for the unelected head of state to provide ‘guidance’ and ‘insight’ into the governments actions.
    In a true democracy the views and interventions into the elected governments decisions by an unelected person would not be tolerated.

    Then of course we have this situation to contend with.

    The Remembrancer what a lovely quaint name for the only person allowed on the floor of the Commons whilst parliament is in session who is not elected nor a working civil servant.

    As I say Roger perhaps we just have different views as to what democracy is. I would like more input from the people and less control by vested interest.

    The recent referendum didn’t go the way I wanted it to go but I accept the verdict.

    I’m hoping people change their mind and vote again in either an election or another referendum to remain, but whatever happens it needs to be done democratically, and if we do in fact leave I hope that I’ll be proved wrong and that the country prospers.

  • Roger

    Ireland has a Fine Garl government. What percentage voted Fine Gael in Ireland at last election? Is Ireland a democracy

    Needless to say I can’t defend monarchy or lords. FPTP has pros. It usually ends in a winner. PRSTV usually ends in politicians sitting down and making deals amongst themselves. Both have cons too.

  • Anglo-Irish

    Whilst no system is perfect Ireland is certainly more of a democracy than the UK, it has used PR+STV since it’s formation and has a written constitution, part of which demands that any alteration to its terms must be agreed by the people.

    The pros of FPTP are all to the benefit of the politicians and not the electorate.

    ” It usually ends in a winner “, yes it does but that winner isn’t always the one that most people voted for..

    Politicians sitting down and making deals is what we pay the second rate so and so’s for.

    PR+STV often ends in a coalition, good, it concentrates their minds and reduces the amount of unnecessary mischief they can get up to.

    Germany has had mainly coalition governments since the war.
    They also have the strongest economy in Europe.

    Politicians want power, FPTP tends to give it to them.

    The electorate want peace and prosperity, they have a better chance of that with a government that needs to make compromises and can’t indulge in left or right political agendas.

    Why do you think it was that we weren’t offered PR+STV in Britain despite the fact that it is already in operation in part of the UK?

    Because the parties want to keep FPTP for their own purposes and AV could be argued against whilst PR couldn’t.

    The only con to PR is it takes longer to get the result, who cares?

  • Roger

    We probably agree on most of the pros and cons of FPTP and PRSTV. FPTP does tend to concentrate power, agreed. I would not say waiting for the results is not the only disadvantage though. PRSTV/coalitions can see situations where parties are voted out but get back in….etc. When that happens PRSTV doesn’t seem so democratic.

  • Anglo-Irish

    Unfortunately very little in this world is perfect but that shouldn’t stop us from trying to attain perfection or at least get as close as possible.

    PR+STV is the closest that we currently have to a true democratic system, if anything it is too democratic in that it allows groups campaigning on single issue divisive subjects to obtain a platform in the legislative body.

    But if there are enough people out there who hold those views then whether everyone else likes it or not they should be heard.

    I have absolutely no time for Ukip believing it to be a one trick pony which is appealing to the basest instincts of xenophobia and jingoistic racism.

    Over 4 million people voted for them, and under PR they would have won 83 seats, they won one.

    Obviously, if PR had been in place and people understood how it worked they may not have received anywhere near that number of votes because many people voted for them as a protest knowing they wouldn’t get in.

    Despite which I would still prefer PR and a better informed electorate.

  • Roger

    On the whole I prefer PRSTV to FPTP. Though PRSTV is blamed for all sorts of things in IRL. There are various alternatives. The Germans go for a mixed FPTP plus Party List system. I’m not up to speed on its pros and cons of that one. It’s been copied all over Eastern Europe.

  • Anglo-Irish

    I think we are more or less in agreement on this one.

    Whilst PR+STV isn’t perfect it’s the closest we currently have.

    FPTP is unfit for purpose and is one of the main reasons in my view why general election turnouts are low in Britain.

    As I’ve mentioned before I’ve lived in my house for 34 years this month and at every local and general election the same party is elected with an unassailable majority.

    No point in bothering other than to spoil the ballot paper, a useless gesture.

    The British public has grown apathetic to politics and that’s how the politicians like it, makes for a quiet life and lets them fiddle their expenses in peace.

  • Roger

    My sympathies on the lack of choice in your local constituency.
    In case it’s any solace, at least you can cast a vote. I can’t vote where I live and can’t vote in my home country either because I don’t live there. Naturally, it was my choice to live outside my home state. I acknowledge I must live with the consequences. It like voting systems has pros and cons.

  • Anglo-Irish

    Didn’t realise that Roger, I made the assumption that you were resident either in NI, Britain or the ROI.

    Will you eventually have a vote through naturalization?

  • Roger

    I doubt it and that would be a v long ways off if it happened. Anyway I’m not really complaining. It was my choice to migrate.