So what comes after Farage for UKIP? Labour’s northern base?

So he’s gone [Has he? Really? Gone, I mean? Like for good? – Ed] Who knows. But for now, Nigel Farage is planning to edge out the rest of his free Belgian beer time in his job quietly in Brussels. What comes after that?

Well, the Telegraph is pitching Paul Nuttall and Steven Woolfe, two working class lads from Livepool and Manchester respectively. Nuttall in particular, has been instrumental in the growth of the party in working class areas in the north of England.

England_mokken_mapsIt’s been part of a drift away from the libertarian norms of a few years ago when the party played with the tough on benefits rhetoric of the Tory right. Jonathan Wheatley found in his research that on economic grounds UKIP has moved ground on domestic policy:

Looking at the position of party supporters with respect to these two dimensions, we see that Conservative supporters stand to the right of the political spectrum in economic terms and Labour and the Greens on the left, as traditionally envisioned. But we also see that UKIP supporters are, in fact, marginally to the left of centre – slightly to the left of Liberal Democrat supporters.

Where it is distinct is on the communitarian/cosmopolitan axis. This is what’s distinguishing populists from mainstream parties of the centre-left all over Europe. Left/right issues are slowly washing out of mainstream politics (even as people hoped that it might be washing in for the first time in the Republic).

Note where the Labour party is? It’s to the left of UKIP but even the Corbynite version of the party is floating up on the cosmopolitan end of the vertical axis. If you look at where the new Corbynite joiners are coming from it is not in the north, which facilitated the recent rejection of the EU.

Many of them are joining in big metropolitan areas that already were massively Remain, or in areas of the south of England where Lib Dems finally got smashed for six last year and where Labour has a below zero chance of picking up new parliamentary seats.

Anthony Painter depicts a fairly dark scenario coming up…

…whether Jeremy Corbyn survives or not, Labour is in a state of violent convulsion. The causes are structural as much as about the actions of this leader or that. The Labour working classes have split into remain and leave.

The remain working classes see benefits in international trade, travel and cultural exchange. These aren’t, as is the caricature, just metropolitan liberal types. They are more diverse than the leave working class for sure.

But what drives them is a sense that workers are better served as part of a bigger international order than being locked in a nationalistic cage. That in itself is an expression of patriotism.

Leave working classes are polar opposites. They see cultural, economic and personal threat from openness. They feel it diminishes them and takes a way a sense of agency – or control. The majority of this group stopped voting Labour long ago. Most of these stopped voting altogether.

Those that didn’t are attracted to UKIP. Had UKIP’s leadership not been a public school prat they might have gone UKIP en masse. They may still do so. The point is that the working class – Labour’s alleged base – is irrevocably split. Moreover, there is no going back now.

The schism is permanent.

I’m not as sure as Anthony is about that last, but broadly speaking this is what’s driving the turmoil inside the Labour party. It has very little to do with Corbyn v the Blairites and everything to do with what kind of party Labour must become in order to hold its shaky alliance together.

It won’t be easy. The referendum result may aid UKIP’s northern insurgents, but it provides a poor roadmap for Labour. Just becoming a pro remain party is as likely to split the party in two and leave it a very long way short of power (just look at what happens in these Buzzfeed gifs).

Liberal optimists believe that Farage’s step down may be the end of UKIP. That’s a possibility. Nuttall may have working class Scouse grit, but he has none of the charisma of the old boss. But in it’s current parlous (nay, ridiculous) state, Labour’s difficulty, is UKIP’s opportunity.

Mick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media and is a regular guest and speaking events across Ireland, the UK and Europe. Twitter: @MickFealty

  • terence patrick hewett

    History will be good to Mr Farage: he spotted something that few other politicians realised: small people acting together can change the world: and he has changed the world.

  • Obelisk

    History has never been kind to populist rabble rousers. Farage will be no exception, especially once the damage he has inflicted on his country and the Union becomes apparent. Instead, he will become a lesson.

  • terence patrick hewett

    Congratulations! two clichés in the first sentence: I am green with envy. Of course my real favourites are mixed metaphors:

    Fast and funny, smart and nimble,
    is his mind, the poet thinks,
    making what is complex simple,
    mixing metaphors like drinks,
    till becoming quite inebriate,
    his speech begins to slur,
    manic as a tom-cat mated,
    his poems they fail to purr,
    thoughts like lemming herds stampeded,
    fearlessly they dash,
    unrestrained by lousy software,
    on pixeled screens they crash,
    as slow as death and sadly humbled,
    like cats that have been fixed,
    static as statistics stumbled,
    in metaphors he’s mixed.

    Or as Bunyan has it:

    Of him that writeth things Divine to men:
    But must I needs want solidness, because
    By Metaphors I speak; was not Gods Laws,
    His Gospel-laws in older time held forth
    By Types, Shadows and Metaphors? Yet loth
    Will any sober man be to find fault
    With them, lest he be found for to assault
    The highest Wisdom. No, he rather stoops,
    And seeks to find out what by pins and loops,
    By Calves, and Sheep; by Heifers, and by Rams;
    By Birds and Herbs, and by the blood of Lambs;
    God speaketh to him: And happy is he
    That finds the light, and grace that in them be.

  • hgreen

    UKIP are now finished. They’ve achieved their goal. They were a single issue party of fruitcakes and closet racists. If Paul Nuttal is the best of them then the other parties have little to fear.

  • Actually, he hasn’t changed the world, just England. There is still strong support for internationalism (but not globalisation) in many other countries, shown by Germany’s acceptance of so many refugees. UKIP does not resonate in Kenya or Mozambique, they have far worse problems to deal with – as will we if we don’t achieve a zero carbon economy by 2030.

  • Msiegnaro

    I think comments such as these came back to bite their author on the backside and have proven to be inaccurate.

  • terence patrick hewett

    Really? read this superb summation from Kalundi Serumaga in Uganda.

    Ever worked and lived in Africa? I have, for 24 years, including both of those countries and Brexit is likely to have a great impact not the least in trade: we will be able to buy farming produce from Africa which CAP so cruelly limits.

    Of course it will change the world: they are at the moment having a collective thrombosis over the implications of it all.

    The EU is having a power struggle over Brexit and its existance has been brought into question: The rumblings of discontent are now being felt in the Dáil:

    Be partisan by all means but do try and maintain some sort of objectivity.

  • terence patrick hewett

    Please write out 100 times

    “if I abuse the punters they won’t vote for me”

  • Katyusha
  • terence patrick hewett


  • terence patrick hewett


    There was panic in the parlours and howling in the halls,
    There was crying in the cow-sheds and shrieking in the stalls,
    When the Toad- came- home!
    When the Toad- came- home!
    There was smashing in of window and crashing in of door,
    There was chivvying of weasels that fainted on the floor,
    When the Toad-came home!
    Bang! go the drums!
    The trumpeters are tooting and the soldiers are saluting,
    And the cannon they are shooting and the motor-cars are hooting,
    As the- Hero- comes!
    Shout- Hoo-ray!
    And let each one of the crowd try and shout it very loud,
    In honour of an animal of whom you’re justly proud,
    For it’s Toad’s- great- day!

    This is Toad’s final bow as he has finally resolved to change his conceited ways!!!

  • AntrimGael

    Farage is bailing out because he knows there is a social and economic tsunami coming for Britain and he doesn’t want to be part of it. Farage and his fellow right wing zealots have lit the torch paper and they are leaving the sinkingTitanic mess. Farage was a wealthy City trader and will probably end up making more millions with the European crowd he wanted a divorce from. It’s a bit like the DUP crowd who donned red berets and stood in the Ulster Hall at the birth of Ulster Resistance and made all sorts of blood curdling threats. When the more extremist Ulster Resistance elements went out and imported arms that were used in the murders of 90 people the DUP said “Nothing to do with us guv”. Anyway when is the British and Irish government and ythe local media going to put the DUP on the spot and ask them about those guns and ammunition OR do the murders of 90 odd Catholics not really matter?

  • Sir Rantsalot

    By Germany, I assume you mean Angela M ? The rest of Germany don’t want the flood of immigrants. The mass rapes by immigrants in Germany are one reason Germans want it all to stop.

  • Sir Rantsalot

    The resignation speech from Nigel Farage. Hes done his bit and its a good time to stand aside. We will still have his entertaining EU speeches to look forward to though.

  • Sir Rantsalot

    LOL, your rant went from the EU parliament to ‘guns n ammo” to ‘Catholics’ You see how silly you are?? 🙂

  • Sir Rantsalot

    As stated in Farage leave speech, UKIP are on a strong footing. Momentum in EU is towards leave as more and more people wake up to the reality of imposition of an unelected EU super state. Also more and more people are waking up from the MSM mind control propaganda machine and turning to independent media for the truth of whats happening.

    This is from Zero Hedge in March, I expect the leave figures to be much higher now.

  • Katyusha

    Unfortunately for you, the evidence from recent state elections doesn’t really support that conclusion. In two of the three states that held elections, pro-refugee candidates topped the poll. Winfried Kretschmann of the Greens and Malu Dreyer of the SPD were both vocal supporters of Merkel’s policy and urged her to continue in the face of oppostion, and they both won the presidency of their respective states.

    Meanwhile, the CDU candidates in both states distanced themselves from Merkel’s policy and argued for refugee quotas. It didn’t do them any good. I guess trying to exploit the refugee crisis didn’t have much resonance with German voters?

  • Sir Rantsalot

    Most likely MSM propaganda swayed those that believe it. Just like it swayed lots of remain voters who are still convinced to be scared of the future. I dont know the details of those elections. Immigrant rapes are dropped from the MSM in Germany. Look up the agenda of the Globalist elites regarding flooding western countries with 3rd world refugees.

  • hgreen

    Former commodities trader sticking up for the little guy. Yea right.

  • Chingford Man

    I don’t think your stupid contribution matters.

  • Chingford Man

    “They’ve achieved their goal.”

    They haven’t

  • Chingford Man

    Do you have a problem with people who have made a success of their lives?

  • terence patrick hewett

    I rather think the whole point is it is the little guy sticking up for himself: because no-one else will.

  • Katyusha

    Most likely MSM propaganda swayed those that believe it.

    Oh wow.
    A tip, you know little about the German MSM either. I was living in Rhineland-Palatinate during their state election and both the TV and print media were running with wall-to-wall coverage of the “refugee crisis”. A crisis which was much more prevalent in the media than it was in everyday life.

    But still, Globalist elites, eh?

  • Am Ghobsmacht

    What’s MSM?!

  • Kev Hughes

    Mainstream media

  • Am Ghobsmacht

    Ah, cheers.

  • Sir Rantsalot

    Sorry, to clarify, I didn’t mean 100% no migrant stories. Just that rape and violence stories are dropped, or very little said about them. Some times even diverting blame off the migrants onto the German girls.

    Below is an article from the German press that actually acknowledges the suppression of migrant rape stories. Also some UK reports about the German media, some independent media reports, and also on the globalist reasons to flood Europe with migrants. I just searched on the subject and these are just a few of the links. There are loads more for you to follow if you google it. I didn’t believe this sort of thing until I started reading it and pursuing enough information to convince me. That is why the MSM scare campaign failed to work on enough people, and why Leave won. There are now enough people who get the real truth of events from independent media, that MSM campaigns do not work anymore.

    “Lying Press? Germans Lose Faith in the Fourth Estate”

    “Why Germany can’t face the truth about migrant sex attacks: SUE REID finds a nation in denial as a wave of horrific attacks is reported across Europe”

    “It’s not only Germany that covers up mass sex attacks by migrant men… Sweden’s record is shameful”

    “After Muslim RAPE MOB in Germany, mainstream media DISCOVERS refugee males MIGHT be a problem!”

    “Report: German Media Covering Up Rapes Committed by Muslim Migrants”

    “Global Elites Caught Plotting The Islamic Invasion Of Europe”

    “Europe’s “refugee” crisis and the Kalergi plan for white genocide”

  • Katyusha

    Sir Rantslot,

    I know what you meant and there is indeed truth in it. But you are confusing a few separate issues.

    One, is that the German government asked the press to refrain from reporting on the sexual assaults in Cologne (and allegedly several other incidents) until the facts were known. This a result of the government’s typical cautionairy approach coming up against a situation it created that it didn’t really understand. They didn’t want to induce hysteria and provoke the far-right into a pogrom on migrants (something which Germany has a rather shameful history of, what with Kristallnacht and everything). It was a morally wrong and ill-judged decision, but one that was made out of panic rather than a conspiracy.

    The second is that the far-right completely mistrust and express outright hatred towards the press, calling them the lügenpresse or “lying press”, and they mistrusted them long before Cologne, which only gave them a feeling of justification for their views. There is nothing the press can do that will appease the far-right; they’ve made up their mind. So instead, they get their news from various websites and social media. It’s like an echo chamber where everything they read confirms the views they already have. It’s the kind of environment in which conspiracy theories grow.

    So yeah. It’s not like the Greens or SDP won elections because the media are all progressive lefties, and it’s not like there weren’t proper debates on migrant sexual assaults, immigration, etc. etc, despite what Pegida may believe. The “D-notice” (British term!) placed on the sexual assaults at Cologne gives them the justification to condemn everything they read or hear as a sham.

    Another element to the conspiracy theories is that a lot of German-media is state-run, so are frequently accused of being government propaganda outlets. But it’s not like there isn’t good independent media – der Spiegel, which you cite as your first source, is a good example. It would be a little unusual for an established part of the press to report on the “lying press” if it was part of the conspiracy, don’t you think? And if you don’t trust it, you can always buy the British newspapers – it would be a bit of a failure of the government censorship programme to allow them to be sold side-by-side, don’t you think?

  • grumpy oul man

    It would be interesting to know if he has moved any of his money into dollars lately,
    Interesting to see that the man who could not get the rest of us out of Europe quick enough is going to hang in there, I am sure its nothing to do with the large salary and big expense account.

  • grumpy oul man

    And these goals are?

  • Sir Rantsalot

    Nice reply. I cant work out if you are a genuine person or an agent of misinformation.
    Please pursue the idea of globalist control of MSM media. Its is totally true. When the next migrant incident occurs, what will be your reaction? Will you say it is nothing, or will you say that enough is enough, lets get rid of these people? As you well know there has been rape incidents after the ones that I mention.
    The globalist plan is to over throw white local population that is used to revolt and enforcing their own view. Can you provide a rebuke to this? I understand our MSM readers are totally out of their depth on this.
    Go on, let the world hear your misinformation ?

  • Sir Rantsalot

    I appreciate your long reply. But you didn’t address the points I raised. Can you give examples to repudiate the examples I gave of German media being shown to suppress migrant rapes on these specific examples? I have given examples of Independent media showing how German media has been suppressed. If you can’t refute this information, then you are a failure in your mission 🙂

  • hgreen

    Nope. I just have a problem with frauds and racists.

  • John Collins

    The GB MSM seemed to have been in no great hurry to expose Jimmy Saville, those nice rapists ineram

  • Katyusha

    Thanks for the reply. You got me. It definately brightened up a long day at work fabricating the news, covering up inconvenient stories and propagating the globalist worldview here at ZDF! I quite like the title “agent of misinformation”, too, maybe I will ask my boss to add it to my job description.
    It’s nice out here, too, and a stone’s throw from Frankfurt where I met a nice young girl who spends her days printing vast amounts of money at the central bank. Or shredding €500 notes as part of the war on cash. Funny how they can never decide which!

    The media do bury specific sexual assault cases cases, with the intention of not giving the local far-right-white-pride mob any encouragement to go and burn down the local asylum centre. Or as they call it “fighting the global elites and defending the white race from “cultural enrichment” and ethnic diversity.” A little silly, aren’t they?

    Of course, we could never hope to hoodwink clever, independent-minded people who read alternative media, so all I will say is keep checking Zero Hedge and Infowars for all the latest news on the globalist agenda. We tried to buy them, but they refused for some reason. Maybe we should offer them some gold.