BREXIT: A possible way forward

friendster_logoThis is something of a work in progress, for which I’m extremely grateful for thoughts.

A fantasy PM would use Thursday’s result to get a programme for savage EU reform and a two-circle Europe, get a UK political mandate for that, then use it to checkmate both Juncker and Nicola.  Here’s how:

First, we need to keep mind of our friends abroad. Spoilers:  Angela’s one.

Besides her, the head of the German Greens has just come out today (here, at 3.15), and made a case for major EU reforms followed by a second GB referendum.

Juncker, Shulz, Italy, France, and parts of the SPD want to rush the divorce before it becomes a wake-up call for reform: they believe Eurofederalism can rocket ahead without the UK, and are giddy to get shot of Britain.

But Brussels watchers say Angela is minded to do whatever it takes to keep the UK in the single market.  In this camp, where the UK can build bridges, are the Dutch, Austria, the Irish (naturally), and the Visegrad 4.

The key is to prevent the quick divorce that the Eurofederalists are calling for, because they see what could happen in a long game: a core Europe pursuing ever closer union, and a closely affiliated economic group around it.

Produce a savagely reformed EU, with more democracy—one where Britain and northern European countries can choose to belong to a trade-orientated circle, and southern Europe can build its political union unhindered—and you will have both improved the EU, and given the British people something more worth supporting.

There’s a Chinese card game called Finding Friends, and it’s time to play it.  The UK could reconcile itself to a departing economy, the breakup of the country, and the roar of social divisions exposed over the weekend.

Or, it can wake up thinky-brain and figure out how to save our economy, heal this weekend’s divisions, give the French a good kicking in the bargain—and win.

  • Karl

    Europe explicitly ruled out using the Brexit result as a threat / basis for negotiations. The priority now is for the EU to prevent more members from going for the same option. That means a carrot and stick approach.
    A carrot of reforms for existing members and a slow down in overtly political integration with more focused feel good marketing for workers.
    A stick to explain to the UK that free labour movement and financial contributions are pre requisites for access to the market.
    There is no going back

  • chrisjones2

    All possible and Junker now on the skids as well …which may facilitate it

    http://order-order.com/2016/06/27/junckit-juncker-coup-begins/

    The ripples spread

  • Kevin Breslin

    A fantasy PM would use Thursday’s result to get savage EU reform and a two-circle Europe, win political support for this at home, then use this to checkmate both Juncker and Nicola. Here’s how:

    First, we need to keep mind of our friends abroad. Spoilers: Angela’s one.

    Besides her, the head of the German Greens has just come out today (here, at 3.15:), and made a case for major EU reforms followed by a second GB referendum.

    Juncker, Shulz, Italy, France, and parts of the SPD want to rush the divorce before it becomes a wake-up call for reform: they believe Eurofederalism can rocket ahead without the UK, and are giddy to get shot of Britain.

    But Brussels watchers say Angela is minded to do whatever it takes to keep the UK in the single market. In this camp, where the UK can build bridges, are the Dutch, Austria, the Irish (naturally), and the Visegrad 4.

    Folk Psychology is the lonely man’s diplomacy, and there has been a lot of folk psychology in this debate.

    Angela will probably try to do whatever she wants to do by her own judgement, with or without any psychoanalysis. Her government probably is close to the UK government position on some things (not necessarily the UK electoral midpoint) but there are reforms it won’t concede for the UK’s sake.

    Indeed it could be argued that the balance of the EU27 does not lie with Merkel, but with Hollande. And to be quite honest putting Hollande up against the Eurosceptics would be a fantastic move.

    A more left wing EU against a more right wing UK would definitely reveal the extent of where the ideological borders lie now.

    Nichola’s not in a checkmate position because The Irish Free State left while the UK when neither was in the EU, and Bahamas left the UK and EU when it was. It’s the Scottish people not Nichola who have to be convinced of the merits of the UK union, even without Brexit they’ve been diminished by who may potentially go in power.

    Junker’s political power is overrated, he’s a figure head observer as far as I am aware.

  • terence patrick hewett

    And all awhile outside the roar,

    Of Merkel’s Awful Europe pawing hungry at the door.

  • I’m always going to give full marks for poetry. 😉

  • terence patrick hewett

    Oh! Patrick I pinched it! The original was:

    “And all awhile outside the roar,
    Of Victoria’s Awful England pawing hungry at the door”

    It was a comment upon the book The Diary of a Nobody by George and Weedon Grossmith.

    Everybody laughs at poor old Pooter but the world was a very dangerous place for people like him: in Victorian society “ruination” meant exactly that: total and utter. The contempt displayed for working class morality, so despised by George Bernard Shaw, was a very necessary protection for them.

    But the deep religious and political divisions in Irish, Scottish, English and Welsh society which were arguably set in motion by the invasion of 1066: the conflict against Revolutionary France and the demands for individual freedom engendered by the emergent Industrial Revolution have yet to be resolved.

    All over the colonies, organisations such as the Sons of Liberty were being formed, but one has to ask; Liberty for whom? Certainly not the black slaves and the Native Americans: those particular issues gave birth to even more vicious wars and are still in the process of being resolved as are our own unlovely conflicts.

    I am a champion of the ordinary man because they are not ordinary they are extra-ordinary and when we put our minds to it: we can move mountains.

  • Angry Mob

    Or revert back to economic union rather than political, that I can agree with.

  • Sherdy

    As long as the UK drags its heels over leaving the EU there will be no reform.
    Only when the Brits complete their exit will the EU bosses feel free to improve the situation for the minor members (despite the fact that they are theoretically equal).
    So bide your time for two years or so (unless the big six decide to change the rules so the UK can be dumped quickly, on the pretext that the uncertainty is bad for the financial markets) and only then can things improve for the other 27!

  • Gerry Lynch

    Sensible enough, Pádraig – and you are right to point out that Merkel is Britain’s best friend, in fact in some ways its only friend, in the EU at present. OTOH, this can’t be pursued while there is a vacuum of political leadership in London, which there is.