So what happens now?

Well, the markets are currently having their say, but I would strongly advise that we look at them in a week and a half and see if they recover from the initial shock.

Now for Andy’s predictions on what happens from here.

Negotiating our way out

The next step is Article 50 notice to leave the EU, which by the look of it requires an Act of Parliament, which may or may not happen before the summer recess in July.

If it does, then exit from the EU will be in summer 2018, unless an extension is granted by the other 27 countries if negotiations have not been completed.  It’s important to note that while Article 50 requires a withdrawal treaty, this does not necessarily require free trade, and the fallback if agreement is not reached is simply the ending of the treaties.

So how will the negotiations play out?

The conventional argument is that the EU will be desperate to keep its largest single export market intact, and will roll over to give us a wonderful deal because of our trade deficit with the EU.

Reality? Look at the economics.  To do that, we need to look at the worst case scenario.

What happens if negotiations break down and no trade deal is reached before Article 50 notice expires?

If no trade deal is reached we default to EU “Most favoured nation” trading partner status. What would be the effect if the UK imposed tariffs on EU goods and vice versa?

The answer is that goods that people want and for which they will accept no substitutes will be bought and sold as usual, albeit in slightly lower numbers.

So the owners of BMWs and Mercedes will still pay for their premium German cars, and similarly with their champagne and Cava, continental cheeses, Lego, and, significantly, out of season fruit.  At a higher price.

On top of that, distributors of non-EU goods who currently import to the UK via the rest of the EU will have to decide whether it is in their interests to create a second supply chain directly or it is too expensive.

So the UK is going to be desperate to ensure that domestic prices do not rise, because British consumers want to buy EU goods and non-EU substitutes are not necessarily acceptable.

What about the other direction?

The same question applies, and this time it comes with an extremely high risk to our manufacturing industry.

Are our exports worth paying extra for?

Even if they are, the second and absolutely critical question is:

Would manufacturers find it more economically advantageous to move production to the EU and export to the UK?

That is a massive threat.  In the event of my hypothetical trade war, the UK will lose in a big way, because we will keep paying for EU quality goods not easily replaced elsewhere in the world.

Exporting beyond the EU is of course essential, and good trade deals will in principle help with that – but any multinational is likely to have a local manufacturing base in most of the world.  For example, GM is unlikely to ship cars from Vauxhall in the UK to China when they already have a factory in Shanghai, because it’s simply too expensive.

Another aspect: farmers, particularly dairy.  Global milk prices are already in the basement.  If no deal is reached, NI milk will not be marketable in the EU because tariffs will make it too expensive.  Can we sell it elsewhere in sufficient quantities to save our dairy farmers?

So what next?

I said hypothetical trade war for a reason, because obviously it’s not in the interests of either the United Kingdom or the European Union to have one.

It does however highlight the relative weakness of the United Kingdom’s position in negotiations.

For that reason, I think we will have a trade deal before the initial Article 50 notice expires, but it’s not going to be the advantageous one that many on the Brexit side would have had you believe.

It’s going to be the Norway model, with very little variation because of the extent to which the EU needs us, even though we need free trade with them for the security of the UK economy.

That means:

  • Free trade with the EU and EFTA
  • Compliance with EU laws
  • Free movement of EU and EFTA citizens
  • Payment into the EU budget on a similar per capita basis to the EFTA members

It has to be said that the second, third and fourth bullet points are the ones which will give some Brexit campaigners a rude awakening.  Even if the UK had been in an extremely strong negotiating position, the only one where there was ever room for negotiation was how much we pay into the EU budget.

The net current contribution of the UK to the EU, including payments directly to private firms is in the region of €7 billion.  For comparison, Norway paid €290million in 2013, and on a per capita basis that brings us out at about €3.5billion.  It could be better, it could be worse, but that gives us back some of the EU funding we would lose without exit.

So, in short, the world won’t fall apart, but give or take some humming and hahing over the next two years, there will be a deal which a lot of Brexiteers will not like, because the dream of abandoning whole swathes of EU law, closing borders to EU citizens, and putting a few pennies into the NHS is gone.

What about the domestic impact?

Yes.

I agree with those who think that Cameron and Osborne are holed below the water.  That is extremely bad news for those of us who are not on the right wing in politics, because their replacements (Johnson, Gove and IDS) are even further to the right.  As a Christian, I find that prospect extremely bad, because I perceive a love of money and predict a further squeeze on the poor and middle classes in favour of the rich – reduced public spending, rebalancing of tax burdens from the rich to indirect taxes hitting the poor (and don’t hold your breath for reduced VAT!) which then has serious consequences for potential SMEs because any SME needs money to start.  If wages are suppressed because there is little change in immigration (see above) and little incentive for rich employers to pay more, there will be fewer opportunities for entrepreneurs – and those entrepreneurs able to start already face an unequal market, long since the doom for local shops.

The serious impact on Northern Ireland will be the loss of EU funding.  Leaving the EU will see at best much reduced access to ERDF and other funding from which Northern Ireland (and Scotland and Wales) currently benefits way out of proportion to England, which has saved what is now the Department for Infrastructure many millions in maintaining and enhancing public transport and roads infrastructure.

It is hard to believe that the Treasury will allow us more than Barnett consequentials of additional spending in England.  Remember that there is almost permanent pressure to reduce the amount of money made available to Northern Ireland under the Barnett formula.

What about a border poll?

A quick border poll will not succeed.  Sinn Fein are calling for one, and there may be one in Scotland sooner rather than later, but any border poll in Northern Ireland that does not result in a leave vote will settle the question for a generation.  Any vote must wait until after the UK actually leaves the EU and we find out what the real impact on our daily lives is rather than what is still a hypothetical question.

Conclusions

Life is going to go on.  In two years we will have a free trade deal in place ensuring ongoing free trade with the EU, but the three pillars of reduced EU immigration, repatriating our laws, and not paying into the EU budget will have been destroyed as worthless promises outside the interests of the United Kingdom to achieve.

It remains to be seen what the medium term effect of the vote will be on the markets.  This morning is far far too early to tell.

, ,

  • Gopher

    Well the quickest way to sort out our finances is to stick toll booths on the A1 at the border as the shops in the Republic will soon be empty. Get rid of passenger duty and there will be tumbleweeds blowing along the runway at Dublin Airport

  • Paul Hagan

    Informative: I suspect the EU27 will grant the UK an extension on article 50 in order to cover the fact that their presidency of the EU is due to be July-December 2017 and they’d ve said they’ll keep it rgeardless

  • AndyB

    Doesn’t really affect it, because the presidency is during the two year period, although the UK can’t be involved in any capacity in internal Council discussions of Brexit.

    One thing I meant to say and forgot is that the EU is in a strong enough position that they can refuse to engage in negotiations until Article 50 notice is given.

  • Gopher

    Irish Stock market down 17%

  • jporter

    The right wing utopia starts here.
    I’ve no doubt that the detailed post-Brexit plans that Farage, PM Johnson and Chancellor Gove have drawn up will kick in and we’ll see a blossoming of rights and rewards for the ordinary working people of the UK and iron protection of public services and the NHS, just like they’ve always promised and worked for, throughout their careers…..

  • AndyB

    Farage has said on Good Morning Britain that he would never have made the NHS promise.

  • Brendan Heading

    The internal stability of the UK is an equally big question, to me.

    We’re in a situation where a good two thirds of the MPs in the House of Commons have views on the EU which are fundamentally the opposite of the electorate. Those MPs will, mostly, be seeking re-election in any forthcoming poll. That seems to me like a very difficult circle to square. The likelihood is that UKIP will run a “vote for us to secure the referendum result” campaign, and could well snatch a number of Tory and Labour seats that way.

    A fractious House of Commons which cannot form a stable government is not good news for the country at all.

  • jporter

    I know quite a few people, working in a wide range of jobs – services, manufacturing and charities etc., who are bricking it this morning, because they see, on a day to day basis, the deep links with the EU in their jobs.
    Their fears might be misplaced, but it doesn’t bode well for their economic confidence and hence spending in the short term.
    But it’s OK, because we have a diverse and strong economy, on the up and up……

  • kensei

    Have you taken your pills this morning?

    Oil is priced in $, by the by.

  • whatif1984true

    Since the trauma of the Stock exchange opening the £/Euro exchange rate has recovered by over 4% which indicates that the original sell off was overdone. My pensonal pension holding of shares is currently down by 1.1% and taking into account that yesterday it had gone up by 1.8% (and by 7% in the last week) I am not the gibbering wreck that many might have predicted. I realise that volatility will be quite high over the coming 6 months but that is sentiment not reality driving things. I predict there will be a boring lack of developments politically with the EU for a good while followed by compromises.

  • Tochais Siorai

    Yup, the only people who use the third busiest airport in these islands are from NI…..

  • jporter

    As the only remaining English-speaking part of the EU and low corporation tax into the bargain, the ROI could do pretty well out of this in terms of inward investment. For any company in NI, surely, the above factors and a short trip over the border will look tempting.

  • jporter

    I’m not a fan of the EU and so I can totally understand the motivation of people to use this referendum as a protest vote of sorts, but voted remain because at the moment I felt it was more likely to reform the EU positively from within than get decent trade deals with Boris et al. negotiating them.
    TTIP, for example, looked like being watered down by the EU, while any UK deal will likely be TTIP on steroids.
    People have got rid of one ‘elite’ and replaced them with another. Calling a referendum was the right decision and I’m heartened by the burst of motivation from many who don’t normally vote, but motivation needs to continue into a GE to get the real change that many seem to want, otherwise we will be further locked into the neoliberal project than we currently are and the losers will be those who voted leave.

  • hotdogx

    Sorry guys but I just have to say this regarding Brexit :

    With unity at heart & pint of Guinness in hand we will take power in Ireland

    This Brexit for me will break the union, it might take a year or two for the rot to set in but as in 1916, external events I think will get the nationalist bus over the hill with most reasonable people on board. We in the republic will be there to help NI when it all goes to the wall & Britain no longer cares.

  • Donagh

    Did Malta get kicked out of the EU as well?

  • chrisjones2

    Yeah yeah …dream away

  • chrisjones2

    This is City Boys doing what they do…chasing rumours and making money down the cracks

  • chrisjones2

    …and the UK can play hardball on exit

  • Gopher

    Some jobs will move from the finance sector to EU, but I imagine the City will deregulate to such an extent that it will be the Wild West in comparison to the Euro Zone to compensate. This will attract gunslingers from all over the world to make profits and raise capital.

  • Gopher

    If your currency is strong against your chosen destination your plane ticket is cheap. It’s simple really.

  • Gopher

    I imagine there will be all sorts of arbitrage going on along the border in the coming years.

  • Skibo

    With the UK outside the EU, expect trading to cause peaks and troughs in conversion rate.

  • John Collins

    Those toll booths would work both ways and anyway there are two of them between the Border and Dublin already and the place seems to be doing fine. Long ago ye ridiculed us when we planned to build Ardnacrusha and yet it ended becoming the largest development of its type in the World. When the building of an Airport to cater for transatlantic flights at Shannon was proposed, Ulster, Old Irish HR and GB commentators ridiculed the idea, throwing it in the much loved tumbleweed analogy liberally on the way, yet it became the first duty free airport in the World and overall a resounding success. In that case Derry’s loss was Limerick/Clare’s gain. Thank God we got out in time. After a further 100 years of GB neglect we would be chucked out on our arse , and against our wishes, of the EU this am.

  • Simian Droog

    “Economically, the Union has been a disaster for all the people of NI.

    If we go back to 1920, 80pc of the industrial output of the entire island of Ireland came from the three counties centred on Belfast. This was where all Irish industry was. It was industrial and innovative; northern entrepreneurs and inventors were at the forefront of industrial innovation. By 1911, Belfast was the biggest city in Ireland, with a population of close to 400,000, which was growing rapidly. It was by far the richest part of the island.

    “Fast-forward to now and the collapse of the once-dynamic Northern economy versus that of the Republic is shocking. Having been a fraction of the North’s at independence, the Republic’s industrial output is now 10 times greater than that of Northern Ireland. Exports from the Republic are €89bn while from the North, exports are a paltry €6bn. This obviously reflects the presence of multinationals, but it also underscores just how far ahead the Republic’s industrial base is.”

  • Skibo

    I love it, you are like the punch drunk boxer looking trough one eye saying “is that all you have got”

  • John Collins

    Simian
    Good on you. Yes and the population of Belfast had grown from 20,000 in 1801 to about 385,000 in 1920. There was nothing for what is now the ROI in staying in the EU. Thank God for the men of 1916.

  • hotdogx

    Chris, why would joining the republic be so bad anyway. You’ll have to admit one way or the other the union was a dismal failure for everyone in NI, the middle ground here will decide the future and they will choose the option that hurts their pocket the least. The UK doesn’t care about NI, if the farmers loose their euro grants, think about Irish beef, everyone was happy with the Irish beef label. Emotionally motivated unionists or financially motivated nationalists, unionists only think about themselves and not about what’s best for NI as a whole. Listening to AF this morning was enough. If you look at the results, all Brexit areas of NI were unionist. This is bad news for Ireland (the island) and a disaster for NI. Remember those of the Orange tradition abandoned Ireland to the catholic church & some extremists, and as a result it took years for the republic to shake this off, in a UI the orange tradition have 20% power as opposed to less than 2% in the UK. William of Orange statue once stood on college green in Dublin, it could stand there again, the constitution could be changed, does real power scare you?

  • whatif1984true

    If you think our City Boys are bad you should see the ones in Paris, they are now 7.5% down on the day and FTSE is at 2.5% down. Germany is 6+% down.
    If this is Divorce the Uk got to keep the sports car and the house.

    Markets going down is simply more sellers than buyers, fear of the future, which it seems is greater today in Germany and France.

  • Anglo-Irish

    How exactly will the rules of this hardball game work?

    The UK is negotiating as a single country, the 27 remaining EU members are negotiating as a single entity which is why it’s referred to as the single market.

    So whilst 45% of the UK’s exports go to the EU the imports from the EU to the UK are divided between 27 countries.

    So whilst none of those countries would want to lose our market they would survive if they had to, whilst if we lose almost half our export market in one go we would probably go bankrupt.

  • Skibo

    Chris, his comments, while said tongue in cheek may not be so wide off the mark.
    What Brexit has done is give Nationalist voters one major kick up the arse. The border will be back to a greater or lesser extent.
    I expect over the next couple of years a number of publication swill be produced showing a definite path to Irish unity and be fully costed.
    Westminster will not pump money into NI willy nilly, well not unless there are bombs on the streets of London again and nobody wants that.
    The cost of running NI will progressively reduce and economics will show our best place lays within a UI.
    Plans will have to be laid to protect your British culture (whatever that is) and the rights of future generations to a British passport.
    At a guess, we will have the first border poll in time for the centenary of both states. It may fail but the next one will not and a couple of years later unity will be a fact 2030.

  • Skibo

    The final days of this divorce are not over yet.

  • Skibo

    Chris was never too strong on long division.

  • whatif1984true

    Be Modern, think mediation, counselling etc.

  • Anglo-Irish

    Sarcasm doesn’t always come across as intended in the written word but I have to say that you’ve nailed it there, well done young man!

  • whatif1984true

    If you had a referendum on Civil Service , should it be increased or decreased, I think the vote would be SEXIT.

  • Anglo-Irish
  • Katyusha

    That’s a good observation.
    With the UK veto out of the way, the EU may finally be able to pass EU-wide financial regulation laws.
    The City will remain, now more than ever, a home to those who wish to play things fast and loose.

  • Katyusha

    Watching BBC News at the moment, talking about making adjustments to the Barnett formula in relation to Wales.

    Wales gets a lot of investment from EU structural funds as a deprived region of the UK. They voted to leave the EU. Now there are calls for an increase in Barnett funding to make up the shortfall.
    Lunacy doesn’t even begin to describe it.

  • Reader

    Andy, you don’t seem to have taken into account that non-EU goods (including especially food) will become cheaper, as there will be no EU tariffs on them.

  • Reader

    I am sure he wouldn’t. By the way, do you have a copy of the text of the “NHS promise”?

  • Gopher

    Not to champion or belittle anyone’s achievements the differential between sterling and the Euro will cause increased road traffic. It’s basic common sense that the public purse should profit from such traffic.

    If flights to Ireland become cheaper to Belfast due to the relative value of currencies and that the purchasing power means tourists can eat, sleep and drink very cheaply. Airlines a fickle fraternity will operate in increased numbers and will switch entry point. Simple economics.

  • Skibo

    They could become very cheap as long as you are happy eating Brazilian beef or GM grain. Why worry about the local farmer.

  • Skibo

    Is the main cost of flights fuel? It is bought and sold in dollars not sterling. Are you sure that flights would be as cheap from Belfast if it is outside the EU? remember what flight costs were like prior to the EU?

  • Skibo

    And let her walk away with the house! Stay together for the children.

  • Angry Mob

    “Compliance with EU laws.
    Free movement of EU and EFTA citizens.”

    EFTA states do not have to comply with the EU acquis, only that relating to the EEA ie the single market. So of the approx ~21k legislative acts in force that make up the entire EU acquis Norway complies was approx 25% of those which mainly make up the EEA, the others they have voluntarily opted into, plus they have the right to reject any EEA legislation but at the cost of market access.

    As for the free movement Lichenstein has unilaterally invoked article 112 & 113 of the EEA agreement for restrictions on the freedom of movement every year since its transition period ended.

    It is clear now that we are heading in the right direction we need a guide to show us the way and as I have constantly advocated before todays result I would highly recommend everyone take a look at Flexcit http://www.eureferendum.com/documents/flexcit.pdf or Flexcit lite (easier read) http://www.eureferendum.com/documents/flexcitlite.pdf for an idea as to how we could transtation from an EU member to a member of the EFTA to evenutally being totally free of the EU.

  • Reader

    Skibo: Why worry about the local farmer.
    Why on earth would we have tariffs on local farmers?
    And if I do have an objection to Brazilian beef or GM grain then I won’t buy it. I suggest you should probably make your decisions in the same way.

  • Reader

    Katyusha: Lunacy doesn’t even begin to describe it.
    It was a secret ballot. If it makes you feel better then assume the ones making the request voted Remain. Or you could note that the savings made on monies previously paid to the EU could easily cover the EU structural funds for deprived regions, with plenty left over – and it’s not unreasonable for people to think that’s exactly what should happen.
    But mostly, it’s not lunacy if there’s a good chance that it would happen. It would be lunacy not to ask.

  • Katyusha

    Cost isn’t everything, and neither is tourism. Belfast International doesn’t even have flights to many destinations – there are no flights to anywhere in Germany for example – and I doubt either Belfast airport could handle the level of traffic that goes through Dublin. There would need to be a wide shift in where carriers fly out of to make any difference.

    Plus, Dublin is where people fly in to do business. You’ll pay a premium not to have to drive two hours from the airport. For example, the Dublin-Frankfurt route is extremely busy, despite there being a much cheaper option to fly in to the equivalent of Aldergrove at Frankfurt Hahn.

  • Katyusha

    I guess you’re right that it’s a shot to nothing.
    Most people would agree it would sensible to replace EU funding. That doesn’t mean it will happen. For better or worse, the UK economy is focused around the southeast. They’ll either cut it, or wind it down gradually. This is exactly what “taking back control” allows the Government to do.

  • Gopher

    It’s dependant on the the relative strength of the currencies , tourists gravitate to where they have spending power. I was talking about tourists coming here rather than us going anywhere which will become more expensive.

    Yup I remember the cost but that was mainly cartel driven. So many factors including the EU were responsible for changing that., the end of the Cold War being the biggest single one in my opinion. Pilots, Airports and all the ancillary staff became abundant practically overnight, a budget airlines dream.

  • Gopher

    Yes presently choice is poor from the North but I’m more assuming any growth would come from outside our 1.9 million souls if the Dollar and pegged currencies become stronger. Runway and Avionics wise the International is better than Dublin thanks to the MOD. Perhaps your right or perhaps like me who flew on a full flight to Frankfurt Hahn to get to Frankfurt or Lubeck to get to Hamburg, cost was the driver.

  • Mike the First

    You do realise the Union dates from 1801, right?

  • OneNI

    “why would joining the republic be so bad anyway” – economically it would make more sense for the Republic to join the UK. Remember the nationalist vote in NI has peaked and is falling. And many “nationalists” couldn’t even be bothered to vote in the referendum even though it would affect many of them in the border areas more than most. Fact is – this is what makes Marty ‘border poll’ call so laughable – the Union is safer today than probably any time in its existence as many “nationalists” have abandoned the idea of a UI
    “UK doesn’t care about NI” ignoring the error you have no evidence for this. Indeed public expenditure per head is markedly higher than anywhere else in the UK. Remember the Euro Grants are paid with UK taxpayers money
    Your reference to people as the ‘Orange tradition’ is simplistic nonsense and borderline racist. You portray them as a 2% seeking some special dispension from the UK govt – largely they just want to be left alone as citizens of the UK. Nationalism needs to portray this section of the UK population as a ‘people apart’.
    In reality the Referendum showed that ALL the people in NI consist of a variety of opinions. Many from a unionist background voted Remain yesterday and many from a nationalist background voted Leave and for diverse reasons. Most voters in NI did NOT view the Referendum in a unionist/nationalist prism

  • OneNI

    Brexit was such as kick up the arse to nationalist voters (who have stopped voting for nationalist parties so aren’t nationalist voters) that many didn’t bother voting yesterday
    Why will the border be back? For Customs purposes the bureaucracy can be done on line. For immigration purposes the Republic ‘joined’ the UK in 2003.
    No EU citizen can enter the UK or the Republic without passport. That will continue. EU citizens can enter RoI and if they want travel freely to NI – as they do now. In future they will not be able take a job and settle in NI (or GB) – they will still be able to transit in and out thanks to the CTA.
    If the Republic breaks this arrangement IT would be re introducing the border and cause huge inconvenience not just in NI but for all its citizens in GB and all those who travel over and back from RoI to GB.
    If they do that they the UK would surely consider stopping treating RoI citizens differently from other EU citizens i.e they could lose their right to settle and work in NI and Gb
    Re your point about Westminster supporting NI – it cost multiples more in money and hundreds of lives during the Troubles and London keep ‘pumping’ the money. Now it is relatively small amounts of money and costs no lives.

  • OneNI

    “It is hard to believe that the Treasury will allow us more than Barnett consequentials of additional spending in England. Remember that there is almost permanent pressure to reduce the amount of money made available to Northern Ireland under the Barnett formula”
    This statement flies completely in the face of the evidence of the past 6 years where a Conservative govt and Conservative led Coalition have maintained public expenditure at levels much higher than the rest of the UK – technically there has been no austerity in NI
    Why would the UK want to introduce tariffs?
    Your commitments about what you think as a Christian suggest you have a strange interpretation of Christianity

  • AndyB

    There will still be UK tariffs on them, unless we get reciprocal access with the relevant country. Crucially, it may still be cheaper to buy EU because of the cost of transportation.

    The point Skibo meant appears to have been about importing rather than buying local.

  • eireanne3

    will you? are you quite sure?

  • eireanne3

    Mr carwyn jones was promised an equivalent amount of funding for Wales – and our very own ms Theresa villiers was one of the signatories to the letter . http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-politics-36523232

  • eireanne3
  • AndyB

    Can’t find one with a quick search, other than the posters – let me know if you can find it?

  • Jag

    ” the Secretary of State shall exercise the power
    under paragraph 1 if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of
    those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be
    part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland. ” Annex A, page 4 of the GFA, http://www.taoiseach.gov.ie/attached_files/Pdf%20files/NIPeaceAgreement.pdf

    56% of people in NI have voted to stay in the EU. NI now has a majority of Catholics. The more enlightened Protestants can clearly see the writing on the wall. The [edited moderator] SoS must be challenged in her refusal yesterday to now hold a poll. Her detailed reasoning must be exposed, and it will be established as a sham.

    As for the writer’s claim above that a poll held now will settle the matter for a generation, rubbish, the GFA says there must be a 7-year period between polls, hardly a generation unless we’re now all guinea pigs or rabbits!

    We need a Border poll now, or at least before the de-Accession states, England and Wales walk off into the night. It will pass on both sides of the Border if those politicians now do what is necessary to finally sort out the actual detail of the North’s finances.

  • Reader

    AndyB: Can’t find one with a quick search, other than the posters – let me know if you can find it?
    I think I would be wasting my time, because I reckon that the posters are all that you have in the way of an “NHS promise”.

  • Reader

    AndyB: There will still be UK tariffs on them, unless we get reciprocal access with the relevant country.
    Negotiations and reciprocity are convenient ways to handle tariffs. But in the end, if the UK wants to import cheap food for its people, it will set food import tariffs at zero.
    It’s early days yet, but I think it is likely that a UK outside the EU will become a champion of free trade.

  • AndyB

    The weakness in that is if a country can sell its goods without tariff in the UK, but tariffs are charged on UK goods going into it, then our farmers are placed at a serious disadvantage.

    It’s one of my concerns if a trade deal isn’t reached. Our dairy industry is already in serious trouble, and can’t compete with the rest of the world even against eg NZ with the tariffs due on its dairy products. Make it more uncompetitive on a European level due to EU tariffs and give other countries free access to our dairy market, and, quite bluntly, we’re sunk.

  • AndyB

    It was enough to fool a lot of people into thinking if we left we’d have a windfall for the NHS – not that the fictitious £350 million would have been much more than a drop in the ocean.

  • Reader

    People were being told it was a gross figure within an hour of the poster being displayed. So who didn’t know by the time of the vote? Were you deceived?
    The net figure is still large, and the net figure will still be available. What are you going to spend it on?
    Other point – “Vote Leave” and UKIP are not the same organisation. UKIP isn’t responsible for the £350m poster, and “Vote Leave” aren’t responsible for UKIP’s migrant poster. Agreed?

  • Reader

    Jag: the GFA says there must be a 7-year period between polls
    At least a 7 year period. Realistically, the interval will depend on how close the first poll is, and how well the result corresponds with the numbers that triggered the poll.
    Jag: Her detailed reasoning must be exposed, and it will be established as a sham.
    Look at the table. Does your detailed reasoning include a belief that a 52.4% remain vote in North Down implies that North Down will vote for a United Ireland? “Sham” wouldn’t be the right word for that…

  • Reader

    Then raise pigs or llamas instead. Grow potatos. I’m looking across Belfast Lough to Antrim at the moment – it’s green.

  • hotdogx

    Join the UK economically (are you serious?) 2 out of four constituent parts want out or almost, looks promising. We wanted out because it wasn’t working, and in the beginning the union was imposed, nobody voted for it. Democratically we couldn’t get rid of it. Look at NI its one of the most beautiful parts of Ireland, comparable more or less to any other part of Ireland of similar size, you cant honestly say that the union worked for NI, and independence didn’t for the republic. We don’t know how to do the beggar bowl thing any-more, we are used to participating on even keel with other nations as opposed to the regional government full of extremists that get to decide what colour tarmac to use. You have a chance of doing something real here if you just open your mind to change. As part of the Union representation will always be 2% as population here is as anywhere on the island of Ireland, Britain has a much higher population density,20% would give you the power that you deserve as part of a UI. Have you never wondered why nobody in NI votes for main UK parties? If you really want to give Sinn Fein & extremists the boot forever and finally vote for parties or representatives that actually can have an effect nationally then you need to accept change, if you like to stay at home and be ruled by others who govern with south east England in mind then i suppose there’s no point in talking. Remember that people of unionist persuasion (don’t know what’s wrong with orange tradition) abandoned the rest of Ireland to the extremists and it took years to shake this off. Ireland now rid of all of this for generations and has the closest links to the UK of any country, you can still be British in Ireland there are many who live and work here, you will have to come to terms with your Irish identity, you need to forget Sinn Fein and look at the bigger Irish picture. The reason Nats are not coming out in their droves to vote is quite simple, the parties that represent them are all rubbish (real parties may come: FF,FG or LAB), they don’t know what a UI would be like, 2nd, most people prefer the status quo when they are unsure, 3rd above all the UK is the biggest employer in NI,4th they hate it but can tolerate it (not an ideal situation). The real movement for a UI will start when nationalists are a majority and when the nationalist position becomes unbearable in NI.Outside factors may cause this, a recession, brexit, the troubles again a full border re-appearing. as long as things stayed as they were it could have gone on for a good while, but now we are in uncharted territory

  • hotdogx

    Jag, its too early for this, we are going to have to wait and see where this brexit thing goes, only SF are calling for it at the moment so that’s like listening to Trump, Farage or Marine le pen, any neo Nazi for that matter; a move for a border poll will have to come from the north and the Irish government, and things will have to get fairly bad before that happens, let all our fellow NI people who are not yet holders of an Irish passport to go out and get one and discover their birthright and their ownership of the Irish nation all 32 counties of it, even the one where the battle of the boyne happened!!! If OneNI’s (handout) Barnett formula money is reduced (NI will be first hit in the UK at the bottom of the food chain) or the NHS is badly hit it could tilt opinion in the UI direction, only a few garden centre changes of opinion are required in a border poll here, and even less as time goes on. Wait a while don’t be too hasty

  • Jag

    When Madame Villiers is so quick out of the gates with her “computer says no” position, this is the most opportune time in a (human) generation to demand a reunification poll. Are we seriously going to sit and watch the Scots get their second poll, and a lightweight Tory politician telling us to suck it up because she’s certainly not going to explain her reasoning.

    We know from demographic trends Catholics are now in the majority, and that position is growing stronger day by day. We have just learned 56% of voters here want to stay in the EU. There is an unanswerable case for a Border Poll now. SF and the SDLP need get their fingers out and stand up for democracy. With SF, the SDLP and the Irish govt demanding a Poll with additional backing from the EU and US, Madame Villiers can bang away again at her computer keyboard and come up with a better answer.

  • Jag

    With respect to your second point Reader, it’s hardly surprising that some unionists, seeing the writing on the wall, watching their children, their businesses and lives in Northern Ireland, want the certainty of the inevitable reunification.

    But, say that’s incorrect. Wouldn’t a Border Poll determine the answer (at least for seven years 🙂

  • John Collins

    But how long will this deferential last and is a weaker sterling good for the UK economy as a whole. The airline argument is interesting, considering that Ryanair is the only airline that runs scheduled flights out of Derry Airport, which would be growing the old tumbleweed but for Mick Leary.