SBP/REDC Poll: Fine Gael/Labour slump as Sinn Fein rise.

The latest Sunday Business Post/RED C poll was released tonight and the results are grim reading for the government parties.

Fine Gael is down 3% to 28% and Labour is down again to single digits of with just 8%.

Sinn Fein has risen 3% to 20%, with Fianna Fail up 1% to 18% from last time.

The article does give some more detail as to the rise in Sinn Fein’s support;

Sinn Féin appears to have been the best in getting its message across in the first week of the campaign, resulting in a 3 per cent rise in support.

The party also appears to have been unaffected by the recent attacks on its criminal justice policy.

Support for Sinn Féin has increased by 7 per cent among more working class voters, while falling back by 3 per cent among those in more professional and clerical occupations.

This makes Sinn Féin the most popular among those from more working-class social backgrounds, securing 29 per cent of the first-preference vote.

Conversely, they fall well down among clerical and other professionals, securing just 11 per cent of the first-preference vote.

 

  • Croiteir

    Becoming a three horse race ?

  • Jag

    The latest poll is statistically unchanged from the poll a week ago. Still, if you’ve shelled out the best part of €20k for the poll, you might as well sex up your conclusions as much as possible.

    At this stage, FG/FF is a near dead cert. And in the unlikely event they can’t thrash out a coalition, then we’ll have a second election in April, maybe even coinciding with the Shinners annual conference (Ard Fheis).

  • Discuscutter

    Things must be really bad for FF in Dublin and Labour outside of it if these are the scores they are getting with 2 weeks to go.

  • chrisjones2

    http://www.redcresearch.ie/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Paddy-Power-February-2016-Poll-Report.pdf

    David

    Have you read the whole published poll report? I know that Sunday Business post have headlined it as above but its much different from that. The key findings are set out online as above and I have carved them out below.

    Again the poll size is just 1000 but they have tried to correct for the Undecided which are 16% of the sample – again a huge potential swing factor

    From the Pollsters Report

    “Key Findings

    • Voters reactions to the first few days of campaigning proper has seen support for the current coalition under pressure from where they were at the start of the campaign, with smaller parties securing more of the first
    preference vote.

    • Fine Gael secures 30% of the vote, and this has been a relatively steady average for the party across all the polls, but does represent a small fall back compared to the last RED C poll. More positive news for the party is seen in satisfaction with Enda Kenny’s own performance as leader of the party which increases in the poll vs last December.

    • Labour support also falls back with a more pronounced drop of 2%, while still within the margin of error, this means they drop from a solid 10% they have seen in last few RED C polls. At the same time the leader ratings show less satisfaction with Joan Burton performance than last recorded for Paddy Power back in December.

    • Fianna Fail sneak back up 1% since last week, leaving the party in a stable but unspectacular position at this stage of the campaign. More worrying is the relative performance of their leader Micheal Martin which does fall back, particularly among their own party supporters.

    • Sinn Fein support is steady at 17% of the first preference vote, and again highlights the need for the party to persuade its supporters to actually go and vote, with support stronger among the total population and dropping off slightly among those who say they will definitely vote.

    • Independent candidates and other parties have the most success in this poll, with parties such as the AAA-PBP (4% +1), Renua (2% + 1) and the Independent Alliance (4% +2) all picking up support vs. the last RED C poll – while the
    Social Democrats (3% =) also retain gains seen last week.

    • More positive news for the Government partners are seen in underlying voters attitudes. Firstly, there has been a surge in the number of voters since December who believe returning the current coalition will be best for Ireland, while 44% of voters would like to see the coalition partners back either on their own, or with the support of

    Independents. Secondly, Labour will take some solace from the fact that of all the main parties, it has the greatest levels of “possible or potential” support to add to its current first preference share. Suggesting it could do better as voters finally make up their minds how to vote.

    • Just 15% claim that they have no interest in what happens at the next election. Of concern to Sinn Fein is that those claiming they will vote for Sinn Fein are more likely not to care what happens than those supporting other parties, another signal that their claimed support may not turn out as well as others on Election Day. The flip side of this is that Fine Gael and Labour voters are least likely to say they don’t care, and as a result most likely to turn out and vote”

  • chrisjones2

    Well Paddy Power helped pay for the poll and have set Gerry’s odds on getting a Cabinet post at 12/1 so the answer to your question is “NO”

  • Robin Keogh

    Getting rattled will not change the figures, but its good to see u care so much. Lol.

  • Robin Keogh

    Was it yourself who argued with me weeks ago that there was no way the election could be in feb as it would suit the gov to have it colser to the Ass elections?

  • Robin Keogh

    Yes, but FF, FG and Labour will form a gov if ness to keep us shinners out. No worry, we are in no hurry.

  • murdockp

    Robin just wondered how a man of your education in particular your exposure to the US gave you a leaning towards supporting an extreme socialist party?

  • mac tire

    That was the poll before.

    This was a Sunday Business Post/RED C poll.

  • mac tire

    Chris, ffs, in the link you give it says 10th Feb. The poll you are commenting on here is 13th Feb.

    In the first sentence of your link it states: “RED C interviewed a random sample of 1,002 adults aged 18+ by telephone between the 4 – 8 February 2016.”

    The Sunday Business Post/RED C poll was conducted between Monday and Thursday of this week, I believe.

    Two separate polls.

  • Gingray

    Aww Chris, the lengths you will go to in order to find a way to frame everything as negative for Sinn Fein.

    Using old data is a new low.

  • Robin Keogh

    Panic must have set in

  • chrisjones2

    David

    You are right…my mistake. The poll I linked to is a whole 6 days old ….. the survey was finished on the 8th and the data analysed by the 10th ie just 4 days ago. Whereas this new one is only 3 days old and not published in full yet ops we have no idea of sample size or anything else

    And in those 3 days the SBP suggest the whole world has moved. So what cataclysmic event has driven this? Have vthe undecided’s suddenly moved – it doesn’t seem so. Has there been some huge revelation. No sign of that

    No …no sign of any change really but still it excites some – especially the SF dones desperate for some good news. Sad that they have little else to cheer them

  • chrisjones2

    Yes …. I can see that it has in SF when they grasp this slender straw

    I see that Gerry is still 12 /1 against for a role in any coalition . Enjoy. You must rush out and put all your cash on him. Must be a sure fire winner

  • chrisjones2

    Hes still 12 / 1 as of 10pm yesterday

    The earth hasnt moved

  • chrisjones2

    Who is rattled ….read above plus ca change

  • Croiteir

    Leaders debate perhaps? Burton and Kenny didn’t go down to well?

  • Croiteir

    Maybe – but the point for me is the growth of SF, if FF do not beat them it is clear they will do to FF what they did to the SDLP. The Labour Party is now looking at being classed as Others, so they are becoming increasingly irrelevant.

  • Robin Keogh

    You need to relax a bit chris. Nobody is expecting any miracles. Go for a walk. Get some fresh air and chill a bit.

  • Gingray

    My god, but you are obsessed!
    There is so much more to life than Sinn Fein 🙂

    Late last year Mick and Pete published a poll which had SF down, but all MoE stuff. At the time you commented a lot. Did you heed your own words?

    “no sign of any change really but still it excites some”

    Nope, you got very excitable about it.

    This SF obsession detracts from the main event, and thankfully the constant talking and attacking of one party is ignored – it does not mean more people will vote for them, but it no longer has any impact.

  • Gingray

    David
    Are you channelling your inner Mick here – this is one poll among the 6 released since the election was announced.

    FG have scored 27-31%, Labour 6-10%, FF 17-22% and SF 17-21%.

    Everything is largely in the same place it was before the election was called.

    Surely that is of more interest that one poll which shows small changes at the edges, but nothing that is not accounted for in the margins?

    Granted by picking a poll that shows a SF gain you will get the rabid anti SFers out trying to dismiss it, the same guys who celebrate a poll that shows SF dropping, but ultimately none of the parties has made any headway or lost any ground since the election began.

  • Robin Keogh

    Lol, you are the one getting into a heap over it and u blame shinners then when u get all confused. Here, whats a done?

  • Discuscutter

    There hasn’t been a poll in the last 2 years that suggests that the Shinners will have anything but a great election.

    In the next Seanad they could be looking at 10 seats thanks to all the Councillors they got in 2014.

    This poll just confirms that, it really is just MOE stuff in comparison to many of the others.

    There is a lot of anger towards Lab/FG out there and FF are still unpopular so Indo’s and SF will do well off that.

  • Discuscutter

    The Shinners are laughing because they and most others see that the only option will be FG with FF support which leaves SF as the lead opposition party and cements them in as one of the top two.

    It couldn’t go much better for them at the moment.

  • Robin Keogh

    Well i dont see SF as an ‘exreme’ left party similar to the socialists for example.

    For me its simple, its about fairness in the way we construct our society and fairness in the structure of natural inequality.

    In one of the worlds richest countries per capita I dont accept, nor will I ever except; elderly people waiting 48 hours on a hospital trolley, excessive waiting times for people with serious medical conditions, 25% of our children on or below the poverty line, people with disabilities struggling to access vital services, thousands homeless and thousands more at risk of it, and much more.

    I have no problem with prosperity, i am often called a champagne socialist by my SF colleagues and others due to my own work and lifestyle.

    The OECD recently reported that the trickle down economic model has actually stunted growth and continues to increase the equality gap. I want to challenge that. Not by a lightening strike but by sensible modest and reasonable adjustments in the way we manage our economics.

    Thats why I support SF.

  • chrisjones2

    Old patterns die hard and it all depends on where the constituency fall and polls cant capture that well . The Paddy Power Odds are interesting

    http://www.paddypower.com/bet/other-politics/irish-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=591647

    Always trust the bookies to be closest. They (literally) have money on it

  • chrisjones2

    So then when you find yourselves out will you heave Gerry to improve chances in 2021?

    Or you could export him back up North to sort out West Belfast which, after 20 years of SF representation, is still one of the most deprived areas in the UK ?

    That would free Mary Lou up to develop an electable SF in Ireland while reporting to whoever runs the no longer in existent Army Council in the North – or as its now known the West Belfast Butterfly Club

  • Robin Keogh

    Nah, we dont do heaves

  • Kevin Breslin

    No mention of the 26% “Others” as per usual David.

  • Kevin Breslin

    I would doubt Gerry would even want one if he was in government, he turned them down when he was a MLA.

  • Jag

    A case of mistaken identity Robin, can’t recall ever arguing with you!

  • Robin Keogh

    Sorry fella x💓👌

  • chrisjones2

    So eventually will you Mummify him and keep him on show at Connelly House?

  • chrisjones2

    Dont confuse interest with caring!! They are different

  • Robin Keogh

    You’re already confused enough it seems lol

  • Robin Keogh

    OMG ! How did you know? Seems like your earlier confusion of earlier has passed

  • mickfealty

    You shouldn’t read that as artifice Gingray, and yet your point is well made. It makes little difference in the relational space amongst the opposition. But I’d take FG’s position this early on as more serious than anyone else’s.

    I think, unlike the Tories, FG seems to have presumed this election was going to be an easy sell. On the other hand Cameron has proven a master of the narrative tease. They knew it was going to be tough to take the mantle of governing party from Labour from well before 2010.

    FG may have presumed that in facing a ‘busted’ FF, and an ‘untouchable’ SF this election was here for the taking. They may have inflated the appeal of the latter, and underestimated the instinct for power of the former and leaned to heavily on the power of recovery for their primary appeal.

    Those things, and events. The media have been calling the govt to account for a whole bunch of operational screw ups that don’t necessarily have anything much to do with long term policy shortcomings. (See this piece from Arthur Beesley on Friday: http://goo.gl/yNLrwn). And at the same time, buying into new policies that likely won’t last six months.

    Lorry loads of paracetamol for the guys in the tunnel this weekend I think.

  • Robin Keogh

    The bahaviour of FG has always been one of looking out for the wealthy even if their narrative suggests the opposite. Fine Gael are the ONLY traditional party of power who stick to their guns. Screw the poor and massage the rich, which is why they have never seen two consecutive terms. People vote them in usually to get FF out after a feck up, later realising that FF corruption and mefeinism is preferable to FG’s neglect of the people. Now however it seems that a significant number of people are fed up with the FF, FG game of musical chairs. With their Labour bridge colapsed, the three paties are barely over 50%. The media and commentators generally take for granted that the Irish people are too set in their ways to opt for alternatives. Thats proving to be a mistake. The trad parties take the same for granted, that could be a huge mistake. FG dont have the wits to split the dice as you have described, they do one thing only – prioritise the wealthy. FF are similar, they do one thing only- prioritise themselves and labour the same – they are the drawbridge , which is worn out.

  • mickfealty

    That’s more than a little unkind Robin. Much of what they are going through comes from the unfamiliarity of having to sell your record in government.

    They’ve done some good things (a properly universal childcare programme f/e), most of which are too long term for them to collect on now. I really hope that does not discourage others from doing the right thing.

    I don’t think the figures are yet clear enough to be definitive on which way this rather messy (and possibly articulated) campaign is going. It’s going to be fascinating once people stop clinging to the polls for a clue.

  • Gingray

    Thank you – I suppose it would only be a proper comparison if Pete put up a similar blog the next day 😉

    FG also had been gain in the polls, slightly, since the budget, I think they assumed it would continue ever so slightly. They dont have the financial clout of the Tories either (think they outspent Labour 2:1), which will hamper them.

    Personally I do not think they have been awful and I can see them gain a few points, but the campaign has been a shambles.

  • Mirrorballman

    Socialist party?! Hahaha

  • Greenflag 2

    FF/FG coalition now has to be on the cards or another election in 6 months .

  • murdockp

    Who would have thought it would all come down to water charges

  • murdockp

    The poor aren’t too poor in the south one of the most generous welfare schemes in Europe and the unions are very strong.

    Also what comprises rich needs closer scrutiny. Are we talking the middle classes paying high levels of income tax or land owning families here? Or maybe public servants of the state with pensions the envy of the rest of the world.

    Too clichéd a statement I feel robin

  • Robin Keogh

    A welfare sheme has to be seen in the context of cost of living not just the amount which is paid per individual. Even with rent allowance, a person on unemployment benifit for example couldn’t possibly survive in Dublin; unless they were living cost freeand had no dependents.

    In any event that is not the issue. The issue is one of choice in terms of how revenue is distributed. A fairer system would not require large hikes in personal income tax rates either. Handing hundreds of millions in tax cuts to those in the top twenty percent erodes the tax base; identified as a significant reason for the budget crises after the economic crash. Failure to collect the correct amount of corpo tax is another failure of the last few governments with the EU investigating Apple’s tax relationship with the State. Wasting money on projects like Irish Water, introducing post codes, over paying officials etc. is just bad government.

    Sotimes a Cliche is a Cliche for a very good reason.

  • Barneyt

    Well thats what I was thinking given the fact that FG ruled out such an arragement…..this ruling out from FG stank of the infamous chairmans vote of confidence.

    But can these two really work together? A FFFG pact as someone on here mentioned, elevates SF to the position of main opposition which may line them up for real power in the future.

    It surely has to be a FG/Labour/Independents or FF/SF/Labour??? Even then I think there is too much hatred between FF and SF…and this arrangement would put Gerrard in the top seat based on the lovely polls.

    Its all very interesting whichever way you look at it

  • Greenflag 2

    Too much hatred between FF & SF ? At the political party leadership level you are probably not far off . At the voter level I think not at least among most voters for either party . Both parties are claimants for the old republican vote particularly in rural constituencies . FF were before their near electoral wipe out in 2011 the ‘catch all ‘ party . Their roots were in the small farmers and non labour party urban working and lower middle class voters and among those who lets say were more ‘idealistic ‘ about the objective of reunifying the country . FG were more the party of the larger farmers , wealthy professionals and the Free State defenders/ voters of the 1920’s and 30’s . Somebody I can’t recall who once made the claim that FF would become the permanent party of Government in the Republic because FF families had a higher birth rate than FG families . And given the mutual antipathy between both parties since the Civil War and few transfers between them that FF permanent majority rule was ‘inevitable .

    We know different now . The world and global economics have moved on leaving FF trailing in it’s wake and the Irish Labour Party facing an electoral disaster of their own making .

    FF are not doing well among the old urban working/lower middle class voters that they could rely on in Bertie’s time . Labour has also lost almost half their support from this section of society as well . And FG true to form have not attracted much support from this section of the electorate either . Thus the growth of SF and many of the left independents -Ruth Coppinger , Richard Boyd Barret among others .

    Given these current harsh facts FF may have to bite the bullet and become ‘junior partners ‘ to an FG government thus conceding that the urban working and lower middle class areas become SF ‘territory ‘ given Labour’s demise in these areas at least on this occasion .

    So we could be seeing the emergence of an FG/FF centre /right coalition if for no other reason than the voters ‘force ‘ these parties into it simply for the sake of stable government -i.e putting country before party .

    Given a choice between playing second fiddle to FG or SF -the current FF will pick FG given current economic conditions and Martin could not at this point be seen to go cap in hand to an SF potential Taoiseach for minority seats in an SF/FF/Others coalition .

    But there is NO mandatory coalition so I guess there could yet be a surprise result given the stark choice facing voters on this occasion . SF could be looking forward to becoming the real alternative ‘Left ‘ opposition that the Labour Party always aspired to but could never quite reach .

  • Greenflag 2

    Indeed – Michael Martin as the new Eamon Gilmore in waiting as it were or the LIb Dems of Ireland lining up for another go at political extinction having come very close to same in the 2011 election .

  • Greenflag 2

    ‘The OECD recently reported that the trickle down economic model has actually stunted growth and continues to increase the INequality gap.’

    In Ireland just as in the USA and elsewhere so called ‘trickle down ‘ economics worked in the 1960’s . The ‘triumph ‘ of the so called Thatcher revolution and Reaganomics plus financial deregulation put an end to ‘trickle down economics along with ‘compassionate ‘ conservatism . Since the late 1990’s (some commentators would say the 1960’s ) ‘trickle down ‘ economics has been trickling ‘up ‘ to the 1% elite and the top 20% of income earners .

    Ireland by itself cannot change the current economic status quo – the electorate or some of it is aware of that unpalateable but real fact. Even the UK is similarly powerless . It will take major reforms in the USA and in the EU and elsewhere to make the changes necessary . There are signs that the current economic status quo is alienating ever larger sections of electorates who are reacting with both left and right wing populism . Who said Weimar Republic ? Not I said Donald -Not I said Bernie . Not I said Jeremy -Not I said Gerry .

  • Hugh Davison

    Having served nearly seven years in the public service of the state, I’m gratified to know that my €18 per week pension is the envy of the rest of the world.