So, what’s the latest on Scotland? The fairest assessment is that’s there’s no real change. As John Curtice notes, the issues having polarised are showing no sign of shifting votes either way.
However, in one small regard he does hold out some hope for the Yes camp making some progress. It’s the issue of what further changes changes could happen if the vote in September is for a No.
First of all 56% of Yes voters now actually think that the powers of the Scottish Parliament would be increased if Scotland votes No, six points higher than at any time since ICM first asked this question in March.
Secondly, no less than 86% of those No voters who say they want more devolution say they will still vote No even if they were doubtful that more powers would be on their way. That figure too is an all-time high (previously, 81%) since the question was first posed as long ago as last September.
As Iain McWhirter writing in the Herald points out, Westminster is a village, with little time for tales of life outside its limited borders…
What Scots of all parties need to realise is that political life will not just return to normal after a No vote. It will be more difficult for Scotland to command the attention of Westminster after Septemberr.
The predominantly London based media will stop seeing Scotland as a threat or a challenge and go back to regarding it as a source of quirky tales of pandas and life on remote islands.
If Scotland votes No, expect no rewards from a grateful Westminster. That’s not how politics works. The Scotland card will have been played. Scots will have to find another way to shuffle the pack.