Note to self on predicting elections: use the other finger next time…

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I don’t normally scatter too many hostages to fortune, but in a fit of foolish madness I decided to furnish the world of Twitter with my great wisdom on how the parties would fare, before the election…

So what did you get wrong, or right about what happened last weekend?

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  • Charles_Gould

    I correctly predicted the fall in the SF vote share, the rise in UUP and TUV and the good showing of UKIP.

    However I didn’t anticipate that Alliance would rise and SDLP fall – the apparent switch of some former SDLP voters to Alliance.

  • Joe_Hoggs

    Charles, while you have your crystal ball in your hand – what is the future for TUV, more MLAs maybe an MP?

  • Drumlins Rock

    Must check my figures, but surprised at just how strong TUV vote was, 9-10% seemed more likely from the locals. The Alliance vote held up slightly better than I expected, although as mentioned there is some strange dynamics involved. Expected the UUP to be only about 2% below locals in Europe, but delighted with the local results.
    Biggest miscalculation was in the local spread of our voters, denying me a seat :(

  • Joe_Hoggs

    Are you a politician DR?

  • Larne man

    Take that was in Clogher Valley? A close run thing, my commiserations.
    Broadly what I expected, though the UUP vote rise, small though it was, did shock me somewhat.
    I was very suprised how many people were talking Atwood and the SDLP before the election. They were the one party I was certain would continue declining.

  • Charles_Gould

    Joe et al

    TUV will do well because they are one of only a few ways of voting for an opposition.

    Nature abhors a vacuum. We will have an opposition after the next election: a few TUV MLAs plus some Greens.

  • Politico68

    I predicted a rise in the SF votes but didn’t expect the SDLP to get hammered. I also predicted an increased Unionist vote but was surprised at the surge.

  • http://www.andyboal.co.uk AndyB

    I predicted that Nicholson would fall well short of a quota but still be elected, and I wasn’t far off. My mistake was that SDLP was so close behind that he needed Dodds’ surplus, and that is the only reason he reached the quota.

    Indeed, UUP’s showing was a big shock in general. As moderates have stopped sending them transfers because of the hardening of attitudes (I have reason to believe a significant number of pro-Union Alliance voters have become sick enough of the UUP rhetoric to transfer to SDLP!) they’ve picked up extra first preference votes and TUV/DUP transfers.

    Otherwise there were no surprises. Moderates turned out in response to the fleg protests and attacks on Alliance properties to replace votes Alliance had lost, and indeed the effect of NI21 was to increase the proportion of moderate first preferences.

  • http://www.wordpress.ianjamesparsley.com IJP

    I didn’t pick up that the SDLP would do so poorly in Europe, nor did I expect turnout to be as high.

    That’s the fun – mistakes all round!

    Argentina for the World Cup, Brazil out on penalties, Belgium to collapse under weight of expectation…

  • Floreat Ultonia

    My political career continues in failure, third behind Labour and UKIP but ahead of Tories (35-31-25-9).

    I predicted three NI Council seats for the Greens and that they’d hold off the Pesto Party and Tory in the Euros. Also Alliance to struggle in Carrick (I was a member there long ago).

    Didn’t expect Jolene and pals or the Derry disso to make it.

    Argentina to beat portugal in the WCF