Stephen O’Brien published the Sunday Times Behaviour and Attitudes poll last night on Twitter…
Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes poll FG 30% +5, FF 21% nc, Labour 11% nc, Sinn Fein 15% -3 Independent 21% -2, Greens 3% nc
— Stephen O’Brien (@sob999) December 21, 2013
For the sake of long term perspective Electograph present those those figures against the 2011 election results:
The ratings for party leaders are worth reflecting on. This are often misread as a popularity poll, which they are not. They just measure how competent people feel the leader is. Sarah McInerney:
ST’s B&A poll tomoro – post bailout bounce for govt. Kenny up 10 to 44%. Gilmore 32% (+6) Adams 33% (-8) Martin up 6 to 43%.
— Sarah McInerney (@SarahAMcInerney) December 21, 2013
Of these I’d say the rise in satisfaction with the Taoiseach is the most telling, and should be read alongside a rise in the satisfaction with the government by 11%.
The drop in Adams’ rating could be related the perceived success of the government’s exit from the bailout. This leaves less overall space for opposition, whilst switching the predominant narrative from crisis to the nature of the recovery. Although in Adams’ case the recent fallout over his brother and the mishandling of the Smithwick tribunal report will not have helped.
In fact although not a huge amount has changed otherwise, the restoration of FG to the 30s will be of huge comfort to some TDs within the major party in the governing coalition.
For completeness, via Stephen O’Brien again, here’s the core figures:
@mickfealty No problem. The core support figures were FG 21, FF 19, SF 11, Lab 5, Ind 13, Green 2, Undecided 28.
— Stephen O'Brien (@sob999) December 22, 2013