FG back to a reassuring lead and government satisfaction rises by 11%

Stephen O’Brien published the Sunday Times Behaviour and Attitudes poll last night on Twitter…

 

For the sake of long term perspective Electograph present those those figures against the 2011 election results:

Poll_IE_131222_B&A_vot

The ratings for party leaders are worth reflecting on. This are often misread as a popularity poll, which they are not. They just measure how competent people feel the leader is. Sarah McInerney:

Of these I’d say the rise in satisfaction with the Taoiseach is the most telling, and should be read alongside a rise in the satisfaction with the government by 11%.

The drop in Adams’ rating could be related the perceived success of the government’s exit from the bailout. This leaves less overall space for opposition, whilst switching the predominant narrative from crisis to the nature of the recovery. Although in Adams’ case the recent fallout over his brother and the mishandling of the Smithwick tribunal report will not have helped.

In fact although not a huge amount has changed otherwise, the restoration of FG to the 30s will be of huge comfort to some TDs within the major party in the governing coalition.

For completeness, via Stephen O’Brien again, here’s the core figures:

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  • Alias

    The figure given in the electograph chart for the 2011 GE result for the Shinners should be 9.9, and not 6.9 (which is the 2007 GE result).

  • megatron

    “The ratings for party leaders are worth reflecting on. This are often misread as a popularity poll, which they are not”

    Any evidence for that Mick? Opinion != fact.

    Relative to the news flow this is probably good news for FF. very bad for Lab (if they don’t go up now…?). Good result for fG. I doubt SF will be even mildly concerned.

    All chips remain on economy for all parties.

  • Mick Fealty

    Strikes me the core FF vote is closer to the poll total than the other parties. Seems like an indication that their advance is pretty hard.

    Meg,

    Dozens of Slugger threads over the years indicate that too many folk think the figures are relative in some direct way.

  • Mick Fealty

    Cormac Lucey offers an interesting angle on SF’s dip:

    Could it be that substantial emigration, particularly among young people, is hitting the party’s support levels especially hard? After all, it is in the age groups most afflicted by emigration that Sinn Féin draws its strongest support.

    Those young voters are also poor at turning out at election times. So the party may win European seats in both the Midlands-North West and South constituencies but probably not in Dublin.

    http://goo.gl/LfSCIu