B&A Poll: Dissatisfaction with politicians is the most distinctive factor in Irish politics…

Looking like that bounce back for Fine Gael, was an outlier

Fine Gael has dropped one point to 26%, compared to 29% support for Fianna Fáil, a rise of two points. Labour’s support has fallen three points to 8% – while Sinn Féin has risen two points to 19% since the last poll in May. Support for independents and others has risen by one point to 19%. A high level of those polled are undecided, accounting for 34%.

None of the moves are outside the margin of error, but it would indicate that last week’s is in the uncertain category… Undecided is by far the largest category, and dissatisfaction is at a high rating for all political leaders from government to opposition:

Dissatisfaction with Enda Kenny’s leadership is 64% according to the poll with 25% happy with his performance.
72% are unhappy with Eamon Gilmore’s leadership of the Labour Party, with only 16% of those polled saying he should remain as party leader.
Support for Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin has dropped further, with 56% dissatisfied with his party leadership, compared to 47% in early May.
His satisfaction rating of 30% is the highest of the four main party leaders.
Dissatisfaction with Sinn Féin leader Gerry Adams has risen by one point to 57% – with 24% of those polled happy with his leadership.

Adrian Kavanagh’s seat estimates are mostly for amusement (since they tend to fluctuate wildly with the polls), but they’re worth looking at from time to time, just to see what the current mood could replicate in politics in the longer term:

So 29% in B&A this week, 22% in Red C last week. That’s a change/discrepancy of some 7 points.

John Drennan notes the most alarming thing about the poll from a government point of view

…the stark levels of dissatisfaction with this administration – Mr Kenny has a dissatisfaction rating of 64pc, while the Government’s dissatisfaction rating is 75pc.

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  • megatron

    Lab 4!!!!!

    On those figures Pearse Doherty would be Minister for Finance. The overall trend at the moment is for a FF/SF administration but maybe/probably the electorate wont vote for that when it appears into view.

    Basil would make more inroads in the south than he will in the north.

    John Drennan had an interesting piece in Sindo yesterday about a critical mass of acceptable (for want of a better word) independents – one to watch I think.

    The next election could be a straight choice between a leftish FF/SF or a rightish FG/New party.

  • Mick Fealty

    None of my links came out in that, including Drennans piece… Will fix now…

  • Cric

    I haven’t followed southern politics closely in a while. What is the chances of FF actually forming a coalition with SF (should they be sufficiently supported), given their historic rhetoric against this happening?

  • Mick Fealty

    On these figures, it would be difficult for either to avoid it… But as megatron notes, this may not be the way the land lies at the end of this parliamentary term…

    The public mood swings are impressive…

  • http://fitzjameshorselooksattheworld.wordpress.com/ fitzjameshorse1745

    I honestly dont understand the support for Independents and how that can translate into seats.
    Support for Shane Ross, Mick Wallace, Luke Flanagan and Clare Daly might well be high in particular constituencies but regardless of the diversity factor….the Independents are handicapped by the fact that admiring Fine Gael in Laois-Offaly DOES translate directly to the rest of the constituencies while admiring Luke Flanagan and Mick Wallace in Roscommon and Wexford does not directly translate to the other constituencies.

  • megatron

    FJH

    I suspect support for indos is directly attributable to the plague on all your houses factor which does translate across constituencies.

    Enda / Michael / Eamonn and Gerry are the best PR that independents could get (for a certain cohort of the electorate).

  • Mick Fealty

    FJH,

    It’s a cumulative effect and it is a slow burn statement of disaffection from Dublin politics… Check out the numbers in the 23rd Dail and compare them with now: http://goo.gl/LrF8s

    My personal view is that it is an effect arising from the abolition of accountable local government in the Republic by Jack Lynch in 77…

    Increased representation by independents is in most cases a local reaction to a perceived local powerlessness at voter level.

    It’s also what’s making southern politics so engaging and open at the moment… No traditional party in the south has a base anywhere near the size of that which was available to them twenty thirty years ago.

  • gendjinn

    FF+SF would give them a 4 seat majority. Risky. Not to mention FF eat their coalition partners.

    Although being in government for the 1916 anniversary might be too tempting to pass up. They should.

    Let FF+FG muck it for another 4 years instead.