Why a #BorderPoll ill-serves the cause of a united island
“I live in terror of not being misunderstood.”
From The Critic as Artist, by Oscar Wilde
So, what is a reasonable, even a Nationalist, objection to the calling of a Border Poll in the next parliamentary term north and south? The most obvious is that from what we know of the current public will in Northern Ireland, it will be lost.
And why? Because what we know of the polling in this area already tells us that there is not much more than a marginal interest amongst the wider population of Northern Ireland.
A nationalist project that was serious about bringing about unification would be constantly sampling and testing how it’s own actions effect, positively or negatively, changes in broader sentiment of the Northern Irish population.
As Paul Evans pointed out in his excellent blog essay for Slugger a couple of years back, referendums are generally little more than framing exercises, often encompassing choices that the population would rather not have to make.
As we’ve seen with the Nice and Lisbon Referendums, the public are generally expected to comply so they get asked over and over until they get it right. If a Border Poll fails, we will be expected to come back time and time again. And, as Paul notes:
Referendums are often used to deal with the difficult questions that political parties dare not address during elections. They allow politicians to park awkward or divisive questions when they’d be better offering joined-up answers. They provide a way of letting the political class off the hook.
Though anyone watching last night’s dismal performance from Alex Maskey on Nolan might quibble the idea that politicians were being let off the hook. Though to some extent that relates to another point Paul makes, and that is how referendums tend to manufacture false certainty:
Doubt and equivocation are a good thing. Instinctive certainty often isn’t. As Darwin put it, “Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge”. Doubters and equivocators are more likely to abstain in referendums, and – following the logic of the Dunning-Kruger effect, that’s a bad thing
Looking at Stormont, where it takes the most senior office six months to NOT AGREE something as simple and uncomplicated as putting out a job advert it’s hardly any wonder the party is keen to distract of the realities of the here and now, and instead foreground a decision that more properly belongs in the distant future.
In strategy it is important to see distant things as if they were close and to take a distanced view of close things.
Miyamoto Musashi
Despite the negative views of Mr Robinson, Mr Wilson, Ms Foster and Co, a genuinely popular vote for a united Ireland does remain possible. The subvention is a block to unification but, unlike the NHS, it’s not one that any of us can or should be proud of.
Whether you think it is ten or eleven billion pounds or nearer six per year, the current Dail is straining at the seams (with a Sinn Fein opposition rightly biting at their heels) to bring the yearly budget down by a further three billion Euros per anum and not bust the social structure of southern society.
The Republic, with luck, will get through these hard times. But the question remains of whether Northern Ireland ever can or will make itself an affordable bride for the southern polity. And who is going to drive the change required to get to that point, if not Irish Republicans?
With the best will in the world, foregrounding an event that clearly belongs to the future to feed an impoverished political present is not alternative to a credible and realisable present. But economics is not the only problem faced by Republican strategists.
“…the essence of a nation is that they not only have things in common but that they have also forgotten their differences”
David Amerland paraphrasing Ernest Renan
This is the real problem. And it is not just a matter of the team that led the war being the same as the one now trying to win the peace. The imperative of the Irish Constitution is clear that it is
…the firm will of the Irish Nation, in harmony and friendship, to unite all the people who share the territory of the island of Ireland, in all the diversity of their identities and traditions.
That suggests that a genuine and successful bid to unify the island must start by not simply building a commonality of interest between, wait for it, Protestant, Catholic and Dissenter, but by allowing people as quickly as is feasible, to allow the trauma of the past to fade and for a promising shadow of an inclusive future to emerge.
In short, a Border Poll in and of itself will not bring about a united island until and unless the conditions that will effect such an outcome pre-exist such a binding poll. This was well understood by the drafters of the legislation, and of the Irish Constitution. And it ought to inform the near term actions of any genuinely ambitious Republican movement.
Instead we have daily reminders of the abiding division that split Ulster Catholic from Ulster Protestant within just a few short years of the battle of Ballynahinch rather than the creation of common bonds that might in some future time serve to bind us in the common name of Irish man or woman.
The change, if it comes, certainly won’t arrive in shape of some lucky Tett offensive in a plebiscite lottery system. It will have to be organic and wrought from dozens of tiny changes in the way things are done and, critically, in the way we chose to view each other.
on the far side of revenge.
Believe that a further shore
is reachable from here.
Believe in miracles
and cures and healing wells.
The utter self-revealing
double-take of feeling.
If there’s fire on the mountain
Or lightning and storm
And a god speaks from the sky
the outcry and the birth-cry
of new life at its term.
For more on why The Cure at Troy may not be getting as much of an airing as it did a few years back.
Region: Ireland, Northern Ireland
“a Border Poll in and of itself will not bring about a united island”
Maybe, but as we until we get a United Ireland unionists will have no interest in a “united island”. One only has to look at the petulance of Forster last night to see how far you get trying to have a serious debate with unionism.
Ulick,
To paraphrase my own argument above more succinctly, before that happens the governing narrative of Republicanism will have to become credible, broadly inclusive and capable of augmenting an already broader and more pluralist Irish nation.
Republicans need to tell people what a United Ireland might actually look like before they mention Border polls. They need to convince Nationalists before even thinking of engaging Unionists. Think New Ireland forum though that would entail a ‘commonality of interest’ initially with the SDLP and the Southern government with all the difficulties that now entails.
Mick republicans have been doing that for years and receive only sneering responses. Unionism isn’t listening and why would they, it’s in their interests that no one engages with republicans.
“Mick republicans have been doing that for years and receive only sneering responses. Unionism isn’t listening and why would they, it’s in their interests that no one engages with republicans.”
“If most of the population believes something to be true, then, by “statistical law”, it most likely is true. Those who do not share in the majority opinion are therefore in opposition to statistical law; meaning they are behind the times, social deviants, or just plain crazy..
The problem is, history has shown that at pivotal moments in a society the “majority opinion” is usually WRONG. Any progress we do enjoy as a species is almost always due to the actions of tireless aware minorities, or even a lone man or woman who saw what the rest of us could not.”
“In strategy it is important to see distant things as if they were close and to take a distanced view of close things.”
This is the time that anyone interested in the concept of Irish Unity has to address the problems of the NI economy. The ROI had cut its running costs because it was forced to- NI *should* cut its running costs but no one, least of all Republicans in NI, are forcing it to.
That’s the task facing SF- start making the NI economy more competitive and less reliant on the public sector; make it more unattractive for those quite capable of working to survive on benefits and start reining in the Peace and Community industry… then in the long-term taking on NI might seem amore attractive economic possibility for the ROI .
Alternatively, they can keep the present safe situation and occasionally bleat about the inequities of British rule.
A good slogan for Gerry to start with could be; “”What (financial as opposed to blood) sacrifice are you prepared to make for a “United” Ireland?”"
For me personally, none. But then I shouldn’t be the target audience.
The irony is that that would suit anyone who wants to see a healthy economy in NI regardless of which constitutional outcome they’re looking for. And that for me is the crux of the problem and the opportunity personified.
If you want conditions to change in the present so some longer term outcome is possible you have to look to see what you can to make common cause with your opponent. Not least because as we have seen with the excutive failure at Stormont if you keep looking for argument, you get nothing done.
Making common cause will allow you do tangible stuff and at least build a platform in order to make an honest appeal to nationalists and unionist alike.
As Dec notes, some nationalists if you ask them don’t want a UI now for a whole range of reasons that do not interfere with fact that it remains part of their aspiration. Getting those people on board is going to take a lot of hard work, but in doing that you also address the kinds of fundamentals that alienate unionists from the ’cause’ in the first place.
‘The problem is, history has shown that at pivotal moments in a society the “majority opinion” is usually WRONG.’
Thanks, tacapall. If we held a referendum on capital punishment in the UK, and if the right-wing press had any say in the matter, we might return to the utter depravity of using death as a punishment.
The argument that most people in NI are content after a fashion with the status quo is not an argument for preserving a status quo that includes two months of high tension every summer which no one can do anything about, and riots to order whenever some unelected faction gives the order.
We need your “tirelessly aware” men and women who see what the rest of us can not see.
There was no point in talking about a UI in 1981. The time to talk about a UI is precisely the time when most people appear to be content up to a point with the status quo.
David,
I (and I cannot believe I am about to say this) would agree with Dec to the extent that talking about one is a good idea if you can find the right format through which to crystallise some real thinking that can openhandedly make its way (and give rise to positive actions) in the public square.
Since there is not going to be a border poll any time soon, perhaps the question is – why are Sinn Fein campaigning for something they know is not going to happen?
‘That’s the task facing SF- start making the NI economy more competitive and less reliant on the public sector; make it more unattractive for those quite capable of working to survive on benefits and start reining in the Peace and Community industry’
oneill
I’m not sure SF or any local party, short of discovering some kind of magic wand, can really do much about the above in the current dispensation.
Great post Mick.
I think the issue is that SF cannot do this on their own (hopefully they have the sense to see this)
In my view a UI might arrive if all the southern parties commit to making it happen try to get NI working with support from the south – not neccessarily financial but committing to more cooperation on every level.
‘the current dispensation’
That being the most favourable treatment in the whole of the UK and public expenditure levles the Republic and most of Southern Europe can only dream of.
Arlene whipped Alex last night but frankly the economies of the Sth and the North are in such a bad way that she shouldnt have even discussed the idea – economically it has no credibility whatsoever.
Alex’s arguments about having a single island economy, health service etc never seem to lead him to what is the more LOGICAL conclusion of those arguments – that the Republic should rejoin the UK and be a Nation once Again
I think the debate will be very interesting. Unionists (like Arlene last night) will make a huge strategic mistake if the two planks of their anti UI argument are the block grant and the ROI economy.
If thats why they are against a UI we should have a UI by 2030. Indeed a debate will once and for all force unionists to say why not and republicans can begin to solve their issues.
‘, a genuinely popular vote for a united Ireland does remain possible’
It is also POSSIBLE that people in the Republic pressurise to vote to rejoin the UK.
Both possible but extremely unlikely
David the point being, just because the majority believe something is not good does not mean it is wrong or bad. This argument has been ongoing for almost a thousand years, is it not about time the people of Ireland should be given the free choice to change a wrong that has been denied so many times. I understand the argument about financial issues, but that’s a tiny amount of money when compared to the cost, financially securing their position and in human lives from the first British troops landed in Ireland. The problem is many of us have learned over those generations what being a subject is, when your not really considered as a subject. If all Unionists wish to keep the union together, England, Wales, Scotland and here, then abolish the monarchy and we can all build a new union where everyone is equal, where respect is earned not expected.
You try and sell me the Union.
I don’t disagree with that OneNI. But if those are your innate values then you are bound to take a realistic tack to find practical ways to realise them.
That means undertaking a journey that will come to determine its own destination. How do you unite the people if you contemptuously discount their right to co-determine that at the beginning?
Better to level with the people now that you cannot command the nature of the outcome rather than putting them through a lot of harmful experiences that excelerate the drift back into widespread incivility.
We need to promote uncertainty as virtue rather than something that should be feared.
So your argument boils down to, if we want a united Ireland we shouldn’t hold a border poll because it will alienate Unionists and aspirational nationalists?
Well I for one believe that in the long run everyone on the Island of Ireland would benefit from a single all island state I have no- idea how many other people think the same way but I know the numbers are significant, I think in open debate the long term benefits of a UI for everyone are clear and can be demonstrated and I want the opportunity for that debate to happen and to register my opinion in the ballet box.
Mick I am as unconvinced by your argument that a border poll would be bad for nationalism as I am by Arlene Foster’s conceited assertions that we should stay in the United Kingdom because “the union is better from a historical, cultural, political and social point of view” whatever that means.
I am as unconvinced by your argment that a border poll would be bad for nationalism as I am by Arlene Foster’s assertions that the Block Grant
A simple yes/no question to unification wouldn’t be possible. There are other important questions to be faced as well as the block grant. For example, education. Who will run the schools?
I think any referedum question would have to be alone the lines of “Are you in favour of the UK and Irish Governments opening talks to determine what would be necessary to ensure a fair unification of the State?”
‘ by Arlene Foster’s conceited assertions that we should stay in the United Kingdom because “the union is better from a historical, cultural, political and social point of view” whatever that means. ‘
It’s indeterminate waffle and I think most sane people would recognise that. Think ‘Home Rule is Rome Rule’ and you begin to get to the gist of it.
And to clarify, if a republican promoted a UI using the same language, I’d be of the opinion that it was nothing more than a more nuanced version of ‘Brits Out’. But so long as a UI is undefined, Arlene and others can get away with unsubstantial soundbites like these.
“Making common cause will allow you do tangible stuff and at least build a platform in order to make an honest appeal to nationalists and unionist alike.”
Mick, the ’98 Agreement is a block to such a common cause; it needs to be renegotiated; the politicians are playing with the matches while the economy burns.
SF’s Maskey performance on Nolan (thanks for the link Mick) was absolutely outrageously incompetent.
Disgraceful stuff.
He should never be permitted to speak on behalf of policy issues and especially a United Ireland again.
Foster kicked his arse up and down that room without saying anything interesting or difficult to challenge.
Is this a joke to SF? Do SF have no project beyond winning a few more seats at the next election?
Do SF truly believe in anything at all beyond winning increased per cent age points at the next election and the next one?
Staggering that on such a core question they haven’t one single serious – even coherent – argument.
It’s just not bloody good enough.
If society is going to be pulverized with divisive questions then at least have some serious answers.
Watching Maskey was the angriest I’ve felt with regards Irish politics in quite some time.
Do SF supporters on this site at least recognize how awful and embarrassing that was?
If not, that’s really worrying.
Unionists must be sorely tempted to test this proposition and be done with it. The best PR training in the world couldn’t improve a unionist’s capacity to appear calm, moderate, informed and adult than is made possible simply be appearing next to “arguments” like that.
Maddening.
Ruairi / others
I think some of the problem is SF cant define what a UI would look like without an all party discussion on the issue (initially probably just all nationalist parties).
Maybe this is what the Border Poll is about.
(I agree Maskey was terrible)
Megatron,
sorry, but that’s not good enough either. SF can’t define their core goal without help from Unionists? I’m sure Unionists can’t wait to help out with that.
SF cannot define their core goal without help from a state in the south they went to war with for decades? I’m sure they all can’t wait to lend them a hand.
SF can’t define their core goal without help from the SDLP, a party they attacked physically and every other way for decades for advocating a consensus-based approach that SF now claim as their own? Sure maybe the SDLP can just write their policies for them too.
SF cannot define their core goal without help?
Then what they hell are they doing in politics?
Do SF appreciate that there’s more to politics than elections? Seriously? I honestly don’t believe they do.
It’s protest movement plain and simple.
A protest movement with nothing written on the placards.
Perhaps we should lead them a magic marker so they can write down some new magic economic policies.
JR,
” if we want a united Ireland we shouldn’t hold a border poll because it will alienate Unionists and aspirational nationalists?”
No, absolutely not.
I’m saying don’t fire the starting gun unless:
- you have some means of being competitive in the race;
- you have disposed of the serious obstacles that mar the credibility of any proposition in the eyes of your own voters never mind those who currently vote unionist;
- you’ve built a genuinely popular case for at least some form of realignment with the rest of the island.
Any of the above can be reversed for Unionists who want to enhance the longevity of the union. In fact, it’s impossible to achieve without some reciprocation.
In fact also Nationalists should do some positive bluff calling of their own.
Maskey was awful but Arlene was no better.
I think in a way Joe’s right, if the two countries, Ireland and Britain are prepared to accept a change in the constitutional position by way of a border poll then surely they have to be prepared for it actually happening. Why dont they publish what plans they have if it ever does happen.
The challenge for Sinn Fein is not to convince the majority in the six counties, but to transform the Irish government into persuaders for unification.
“SF’s Maskey performance on Nolan (thanks for the link Mick) was absolutely outrageously incompetent.”
Ruarai, SF was a small cog in the Stepping Stones project. When the ’98 Agreement was put in place experienced and competent British and Irish civil servants as well as elements in the US administration and the Vatican curia moved on to other projects. Last night’s performance had echoes of the Mike Nesbitt v Declan Kearney encounter [youtube] when Mike invited Declan IIRC to persuade him of the merits of a United Ireland, Declan was left totally exposed.
tapacall. Foster said SF should be careful what they wish for, but if the DUP now say they also would want one for ulterior motives, should also be careful wishing for a border poll as every time her leader or some other DUP figure comes on tv/ radio making arrogant assumptions that there would be a high number ofg catholics voting for status quo, the nationalist voter is more llikely to vote yes just shut them up, while believing the safety lock of the RoI voters final refusal would mean likely no change, but would ensure unionist/orange better behaviour in future..
“SF cannot define their core goal without help from a state in the south they went to war with for decades”
Ruarai, the intent of the socialist armchair and militant republicans in the 60s was to sweep away the administrations in Belfast and Dublin. Dublin did a runner and the actions of the PRM did quite a bit of damage to the southern economy but it pales in significance to the destruction in wreaked in Northern Ireland.
Thanks, tacapall, and forgive me if I don’t try to sell you a union which ceased to exist in 1985. What we have now is an association for which the ‘deep’ government of GB has no enthusiasm.
When I listen to our local politicians debating the union-versus-UI, I feel as if I’m drowning in a sea of barbarity. Neither side possesses a literate and urbane spokesperson who can see past trivial material vulgarities.
Forget about any vision of Britishness or Irishness that has no real spiritual or cultural content. You may as well go and sniff glue. A decent UI will need a massive all-round change of heart, encompassing North Dublin and East Belfast. The population of Ireland is small enough for the necessary change to be possible.
Let us begin with real thinking that can make its way into the public square, as Mick suggests.
Our present politicians are devoid of real culture. Any UI that they are allowed to bring about will be devoid of real culture.
Sluggerland may play an important part in getting people who want a real culture to think unaccustomed thoughts.
Let’s have a root-and-branch change. Whether we have a monarchy or not is worse than trivial if people in a UI are still going to be wage slaves who do two hours of unpaid form-filling and box-ticking for their elected government every night. Why should we tolerate hellish injustice?
A UI may give us all the chance to start getting rid of several different chains: wickedly expensive housing, universal car ownership, the litigation industry, and the educational tyranny that presides over a multitude of anarchic hell-pit schools. New Ireland could be the envy of the Western world.
Lots of wisdom in Mick’s post. I suppose we need to wait to see what nationalism itself can come up with that’s different. Though of course the idea of persuading people out of their current happily held nationality itself implies there is something wrong with it. And there’s something wrong with that.
Nevin, yes, I too was reminded of the previous Nesbitt encounter; that there was previous made last night’s repeat no-show all-the-more jarring. I mean, didn’t anyone in their ranks see the problem there first time? Could they possibly think that such an approach is anything other than awful?
It’s obvious that more damage was done in the north during the conflict Nevin but what’s a lot less obvious to a lot of northern Nationalists was just how much resentment was created by the Provisional’s conflict with the Southern state too, resentment and suspicion that lingers to this day.
It’s relevant because anyone thinking about a UI sales pitch needs to consider not just message but messenger and target audience too.
When considered like that, not only do SF lack a message (unless you consider an envelope with no letter inside a message) they have no messengers suited to persuading a southern or northern audience.
Northern Nationalists serious about building the case for a united Ireland in the years ahead need to swallow hard and realise that SF are absolutely not suited for that task.
Not only, as Maskey has shown, do SF lack the capacities to form serious and modern and relavant and powerful arguments, they lack the messengers to deliver them.
Even if they were to remedy their issues with message and messenger – which they won’t – their brand is so toxic in unionist and many southern communities that they are incapable of selling even a bargain never mind a rip off.
Nationalists need to choose: what’s more important: Building the case for a UI or Building SF’s electoral machine.
Brilliant post, Ruarai. Thanks.
Let’s have a root-and-branch change. Whether we have a monarchy or not is worse than trivial if people in a UI are still going to be wage slaves who do two hours of unpaid form-filling and box-ticking for their elected government every night. Why should we tolerate hellish injustice?
David thats a choice that can easily be changed unlike being a subject and a slave to some dear old lady’s whim. I have no problems with religion but democracy should not be tied to the bounds of one religion when there are many nor should religion be classed as a bar to the highest seat in society. Why should we not have the same culture in a unified Ireland that we have now.
It is up to unionism as much as it is to nationalism, to especially at this time, articulate the benefits of the status quo or a unified Ireland. The only thing I hear from anyone who preaches the status quo is financial reasons.
I’m late into this debate, as I have better things to do with my time, but I scanned back to what Gerry Adams said on ‘The View’, BBC NI, 17 January and I wrote it down:
“…the figure that they use is £17.5 billion that they put in but the Department of Finance and Personnel told us that £12.7 billion[is collected], so the deficit is reduced to around £7 billion.”
No, it isn’t Gerry, you dumb-schlock: 17.5-12.7=4.8. Even if your figures were correct, which I doubt. Reputable economists estimate that circa 75% of the NI economy is public sector, which means it is dependent on Treasury
I am reluctant to contribute to these threads as I am. To an extent, contributing to this topic strengthens the Provos’ claim that a ‘head of steam’ is building up. They do have a right to table this matter, but the parties of democratic nationalist Ireland won’t be playing their game.
Next stage: SF will table a motion in the Assembly, hoping to embarrass the SDLP into supporting it. Won’t work.
Looked at Maskey vs. Foster too. He was truly awful. As someone who has lived both North and South, the NHS is incomparably better.
‘They do have a right to table this matter, but the parties of democratic nationalist Ireland won’t be playing their game.
‘
What game will the parties of ‘democratic’ nationalist Ireland be playing then?
SDLP supporter,
First:
Then:
be careful you don’t trip over your self-regard there. SDLP supporters strike me as a bunch with plenty of time on their hands.
It’s not like you’re making any impression on public debates after all, is it?
Perhaps if you spent a little more of your valuable time engaging in public debates like these and a lot less in your party’s never-ending internecine family feuds, your party would have more of a voice.
I am reluctant to contribute to these threads as I am – have you ever heard the like of it?
SDLP supporter are you so naive to believe the NHS will continue in its present form forever ? The influx of foreign immigrants is putting a huge strain on the British economy, how long can that last ? Do you believe it is morally right to live as parasites on another country ? Im not a Sinn Fein supporter but neither am I SDLP even though you tell me your a republican party. What kind of republican party could promote a monarchist society, are you saying you would rather have the status quo than support Sinn Feins motion.
Thanks, tacapall. All we need for a UI is enough people to agree with us. (And all you need to turn GB into a republic is enough people to agree with you.)
Suppose that most citizens of a New Ireland decide that their very own and freely chosen kind of monarchy will enhance the dignity of their nation. I’ll be very happy to go along with that.
But if we ever get around to reviving the Irish House of Lords, let’s keep the bishops out of it.
I still dare to hope that romantic Ireland is NOT dead and gone. If real Ireland chooses to be united, something much older than a republican notion may assert itself. Last year’s royal visit to the RoI didn’t revive the idea of the pre-partition UK, but it may have revived the idea of royalty.
Not long ago a disgusted Scot described her ‘new’ nation to me as a PC land of civil servants. That’s not what we want here.
Ruarai
Your post is spot on. This is all about Sf. Nothing more, nothing less. Saying that I’m looking forward to the day when nationalism actually tells us (in detail) what they want this new Ireland to look like. Give us something to think about. How will you unite unionism and nationalism in this new Ireland? Why are the main parties in the 26 county Republic remaining silent about a UI when they are the only people who have any chance of selling it to unionism?
Those posters happy to hide under the comfort blanket of the “Unionists won’t listen” might start by asking if they’re talking to the right people. The issue isn’t to talk to the politicians but to the people on the ground, since there are more of them than there are politicians. The question is have you anything worth saying and can you in turn listen to feedback ?
“Thanks, tacapall. All we need for a UI is enough people to agree with us. (And all you need to turn GB into a republic is enough people to agree with you.)”
You do know David Sinn Fein and the SDLP are republican parties, they oppose a monarchy and they speak for the majority of nationalists therefore they would share my view as a fellow Irishman and its Ireland im talking about not Britain.
Whats wrong with the system of government we have in the 26 counties, why do we need a house of unelected eccentric pensioners to muddy the waters.
“It’s relevant because anyone thinking about a UI sales pitch needs to consider not just message but messenger and target audience too.”
Ruarai, which of the current nationalist parties on the island are much interested at this point in time in either compiling a message or promoting it? What do you regard as the target audience in NI? Haven’t those of a UI disposition already got a sufficiently wide range of nationalist parties to cast their vote for? David Crookes is unimpressed by the current bunch yet there’s been nothing to stop him and like minded folks from forming a party that suits their spiritual and cultural tastes.
“I’m not sure SF or any local party, short of discovering some kind of magic wand, can really do much about the above in the current dispensation.”
They could at least show some kind of willingness to reduce the reliance on the wider UK tax-payer. For example, have they (SF) ever said we have too big a public/sector here?
Nevin, all good questions. But I’m typing while on a conference call here so I’ll have to take them up another time. Sorry bro.
I’m a silver surfer with time on my hands, Ruarai. No problem
Don’t you dare patronise me, Ruarai. Decades ago, there was a very useful body of work put together by the New Ireland Forum which lead to the Report and to the Anglo-Irish Agreement of 1985. That Forum several superb reports, to which I contributed in some measure. I cite:
1. The macroeconomic consequences of integrated economic policy, planning and co-ordination in Ireland
2. The cost of violence arising from the Northern Ireland crisis since 1969
3. A comparative description of the economic situation, North and South
4. The legal systems, North and South
5. An analysis of agricultural developments in the North and South of Ireland and of the effects of integrated policy and planning.
6. Opportunities for North/South co-operation and integration in energy
7. Integrated policy and planning for transport in a New Ireland
All that work was rubbished by Sinn Fein and their fellow-travellers and the Provos continued on their killing spree for another decade. So, I’m not inclined to get into bogus “debates” which as Alan N/Ards rightly says, is all about Sinn Fein, nothing more, nothing less.
I suggest you read theseNIF reports before you make any more contributions yourself. I’ll even meet you and give you the documents, Come back to me then and I’ll happily debate with you
As for Tacapall’s shameful remark about the NHS, can he suggest any better system? What is Sinn Fein putting on the table?
Also Tacapall “The influx of foreign immigrants is putting a huge strain on the British economy, how long can that last ? Do you believe it is morally right to live as parasites on another country?”
The ‘foreign immigrants’ fifty plus years ago were refugees from De Valera’s ‘failed state’ and the comments that they’re making about immigrants now they made then then about Irish nurses and navvies. It was racist then and it is racist now. The cynicism of Sinn Fein is palpable given that for years they told people in West Belfast and elsewhere that it was a ‘patriotic act’ to take as much as possible from the Brits.
Thanks for your comments, tacapall and Nevin, and good evening from a still-frozen Belfast.
[I was thinking about people rather than parties.
But it's time to start a new party.
Maybe in Louth.]
Anyone interested can give me a ring. One thing occurs to me at the moment about economics. It is unthinkable that the British subvention to NI will cease to be paid as soon as a UI comes into being. Something else. I may have been maligning Mr Adams in recent days. Perhaps he has been drumming up American financial support for a UI, and not for the SF party coffers.
Whatever the case, in the longer term a healthy New Ireland will want to stand on its own feet, and pay its own way. That is not impossible. We have a relatively small population in a land which is rich on many counts. Don’t rule national pride out of any equation that relates to the future of Ireland.
The Shinners should get PWC on the case to do a costing regarding NI’s actual finances and where they see the savings coming in. That would be a sensible starting point. Nevin could be striking oil up there, that would help…
Thanks for the video link of Arlene and Alex, Mike. That was the most entertaining exchange I have watched in a long time.
SDLP supporter whats shameless about asking how long a system that is being abused by half the world can go on. Is that not reality,
” immigrants’ fifty plus years ago were refugees from De Valera’s ‘failed state’ and the comments that they’re making about immigrants now they made then then about Irish nurses and navvies. It was racist then and it is racist now.”
Isn’t that the problem of the British, that’s what having too many subjects gets you.
Possibly when the Celtic Tiger starts to roar again and when Rathlin oil starts to flow, wounds may start to heal, especially as all royalties and profits from Rathlin oil will go straight to Westminster – we in NI will have no say in how it will be spent/wasted.
Tacapall, as well as having some literacy problems, you’ve been reading too much of the Daily Mail. Where is your evidence that ‘half the world’ is abusing the NHS?
Thanks SDLP supporter your arrogance is as much a fault in this debate as my literacy problem. Are you seriously suggesting that the massive influx of immigrants into Britain from EU countries is not having a detrimental effect on the NHS.
SDLP Supporter,
first we get this:
Then you follow-up with this:
Can you hear yourself? Take it down at least three notches.
And here’s a tip. When you’re trying to weigh in on contemporary discussions, as you should be – if you can spare the time, of course – sentences that start with:
Decades ago, there was a very useful body of work put together by the New Ireland Forum… probably aren’t the finger on the pulse frame setters you’re looking for.
Otherwise, I’d been keen to see an updated report on some your points from the mid-eighties. Hopefully you’re working on that.
“But it’s time to start a new party.”
David, there already exists a geriatric ginger group of the type you seem to have in mind: New Ireland Group. It’s never really caught on.
Indeed, Nevin. I well remember the group to which you allude. Thanks for reminding me of its work.
I wasn’t really thinking of anything quite so mild as ginger. Wherever did you get the word ‘geriatric’? (Do hope you aren’t an ageist.) Any new party will need to consist at least 50% of Fresh Young Things.
Remus laughed at the walls that Romulus was building. It’s funny. Nowadays tourists don’t go in their thousands to visit the city of Reme.
David, there was a New Ireland Society when I was at QUB in the early 60s so the idea has been around a long long time. The twin brothers were mythical characters so you’ll excuse me if I laugh
I see they’re still in business after a fashion, Nevin.
Talking about mythical notions……. It would have been some time during your student days that an unchurched loyalist went into the old NPO in Ann Street. ‘The daughter’s gettin’ married, layke,’ he said to the assistant, ‘an’ she needs a whayte Bayble fer the photas, and Ay’m nat too religious, layke, so don’t be askin’ ma what she means, but she sez it has ta be a King Billy Version.’
It is now 15 years since the the signing of the GFA so how and when will NI Sect of State and the Taoiseach ROI know when it is the correct time to call a border poll for a UI?
Surely If republicans and nationalists felt so strong and wanted a border poll why have they not started protest parades like loyalists have over the Union flag issue.
As for you, Tacapall, you confirm my belief that a lot of Sinn Fein supporters are racists .
I like that one, very good. Can you dish out some characteristics other groups in society display? You’ve got your big brush out now you may as well tar some people with it (just like racists do really).
It certainly is racist to declaim that immigrants are a burden on society. Any evidence that I have seen published shows the opposite. Immigrants bring a net benefit. That is certainly true in Canada. I know, I’m an immigrant myself.
SDLP supporter, I just call a spade a spade, I dont care how many immigrants go into Britain, the more the merrier as far as Im concerned and I hope they are all homeless and skint, sure wouldn’t they just be parasites like the rest of us. How much is that subvention each year ?
We’re getting a little overwrought here boys… Calm down..
SDLP, any thoughts on the analysis above?
Nice man playing there SDLP guy. A thought, you know the way a lot of Shinners are former SDLP voters who switched sometime over the past decade or so. They would be your target market and as such you may want to consider not insulting them en masse, online, before you stick your name on the ticket. As Gordon found out, voters don’t like being called racist by people asking for their votes. You don’t get paid? Maybe sticking the knife into your target electorate is holding you back.
Tell you what Ruairi, I think you’re a good guy, all things considered. So I’ll metaphorically offer my hand in friendship and apologise for any hurt feelings to you (and Mick).
SDLP Supporter,
hand is shaken brother.
I’ll take my chances with referedums rather than the political class, you old undemocratic dog, Mick.
Anywho, Go Rin No Sho.
“You must understand that there is more than one path to the top of the mountain”
Maybe opinion polling is off here, for not the first time in the universe. Maybe a result provides clarity that helps everyone shift positions. Maybe Nationalism just has to lose to reassess to win. Any border poll will have at best, medium term affects by itself.
The goal of all Republicans should be unity of purpose of the Irish people. But you can hold that view and believe it is still best accomplished within a United Ireland. Those are not incompatiable views. What is needed for a UI is a coalition of 50%+1 and the rest can be finessed, just as the current 50%+1 situation is finessed. Pick whatever end of the telescope you like: if that fundamentally isn’t true the deal we have is sham and at some point that will be exposed and there will be more trouble. The subvention could be more than the entire GDP of Ireland, and if a border poll passed and there was no UI then this places would be in flames.
The overriding theme here is that people tend to say “You need to not have a referendum” or “You must do X before a United Ireland” or “I believe we shouldn’t consult the people, it’s just ducking out”. What they are doing is projecting their personal preferences. There are many routes to the top of the mountain: it’s not infeasible to get that coalition in a fairly nasty, polarising way. It might not be a good idea, but doable. There are also certainly a lot of routes without complete unanimity on the populace. There are also very few eternal victories and defeats.
A referendum provides clarity for everyone on where we stand. It’s possible to duck reality on both sides at the moment without it. I support it on that basis, and a dose of reality, whatever it is, will ultimately help nationalism. I support it for that reason. If you don’t grand, but I finds the arguments here somewhat weak.
Here are a few more tidbits from the master Mick, because as he put it:
“You should not have any special fondness for a particular weapon, or anything else, for that matter. Too much is the same as not enough. Without imitating anyone else, you should have as much weaponry as suits you.”
“If you wish to control others you must first control yourself”
“Whatever the Way, the master of strategy does not appear fast….Of course, slowness is bad. Really skillful people never get out of time, and are always deliberate, and never appear busy.”
“If you do not control the enemy, the enemy will control you”
“All man are the same except for their belief in their own selves, regardless of what others may think of them”
“You can only fight the way you practice”
Maskey was awful. The southern health service has good attributes, as does the economy. Didn’t come across that he has any interest in either. When do you start planning a border poll? How long have the SNP been trying to work it? SF would need some heavy lifting in the background to build the consensus needed. I haven’t seen any evidence that they can build bridges with the SDLP, FF, FG or any other big persuaders in the nat side, never mind dissenter like meaningless notation. Now is certainly the time to start, but d- for effort.
He was pretty bad nigh. Completely unprepared.
So far the only thing about this referendum that is worth discussing is that SF have absolutely no clue what form a united Ireland will take. They have done absolutely no research into it and can’t articulate any worthwhile argument for it. Yeah I know, apparently a 32 county Republic (whatever that is) will be great.I have to hand it to Arlene she scored a boundary off every delivery and the look on her face spoke a million words about Alex’s intellectual capacity
SF remind me off a kid at school who had all the band tee shirts, posters and paraphernalia etc but had never heard a song of that band.
I think the intellectual gap from getting elected as a party and actually running the country really has become apparent (Marty excluded).
As a supporter of reunification, I almost had to hide my eyes behind my hands as I watched Maskey’s “performance” last night. There are several obvious and positive reasons for reunification. There are also several reasons which effectively are “negative” reasons for maintaining the status quo.
For a politician who claims his raison d’être is reunification, his performance when asked the one big question (i.e. “why?”) was pathetic.
Ask a UKIP member why Britain should leave the EU, ask the SNP why Scotland should be independent- they have several rational answers, whatever you think of same.
I expect that those politicians who profess to ‘articulate’ (sic) my desire for reunification to do so in a competent manner. Such a poor showing from Maskey only serves to weaken the cause he claims to be pursuing.
I’d expect all our southern friends would expect a UI to be exactly the same as the 26 counties. Sure a period of conversion but why would they change anything for us? We would be voting to join them, they are voting to let us. RTE at no 1 on you telly and 50euro to see the doctor. What’s the big mystery?
Now is the time for the SDLP to grow a set and say
‘we disagree with SF and we don’t think a border poll in the next ten years is the priority, rather we’d rather sort out the education mess’.
“SF have absolutely no clue what form a united Ireland will take.” Agreed, Gopher. That’s what I get from the recent speeches of Mr Adams.
How can SF ask voters to follow a party leadership that has no idea where it’s going? (Tte DFM excluded, as you say.)
You can express the SF policy-vacuum in terms of a wee quiz.
“Why should unionists be attracted to a UI?” Pass.
“What sort of UI do you have in mind?” Pass.
Fail.
Actually I have a new TV that gets tv3 if you set it up as Irish but its really hard to get used to the channel arrangements. It would nearly sway my vote.
If someone can invent a set that gets BBC Saturday afternoon children’s programmes from the early 1960s, I’ll buy a TV and vote for anything. Union with North Korea. Anything.
“I expect those politicians who profess to ‘articulate’ (sic) my desire for reunification to do so in a competent manner.” Thanks, mycousinvinny. More and more it looks as if the case for a UI will have to be made by ordinary people, and not by politicians. SF are so bad at making the case that clear-eyed unionists may be able to steal a march on them.
Zig’s point is less trivial than it may seem. We ought to give more weight to such small things, not less… Then maybe we might come up with a credible solution to overcrowding in Ardoyne?
Another small but utterly good thing: cross-border library buses. Anyone know how many there are?
“Despite the negative views of Mr Robinson, Mr Wilson, Ms Foster and Co, a genuinely popular vote for a united Ireland does remain possible.”
I’m a sceptic on that claim, Mick. Please explain its basis, including your definition of ‘a genuinely popular vote’. From my perspective, it means a majority of unionists and a majority of nationalists.
Why aren’t Slugger bloggers, who identify with the PRM and its SF political wing, on here persuading readers of the merits of their version of a UI? Attacks on and bad-mouthing of their unionist and FF opponents are unlikely to change hearts and minds.
“the abiding division that split Ulster Catholic from Ulster Protestant within just a few short years of the battle of Ballynahinch”
I’m not aware of widespread Ulster Catholic and Protestant unity in the 1790s, including 1798. I think Fr McNally of Loughguile’s 1801 account is a fair reflection of events in Antrim and Down in that era. Presbyterian republicans and Catholic loyalists are rare species in the Ballymoney district now.
I think Eilis O’Hanlon put it best when she said that SF needs unionist resistance to ‘prove’ to its supporters that it and they are thriving. In my view that’s an outlook borne of war and therefore reductive and binary in nature.
Robin Wilson published a piece through Democratic Dialogue the first chapter was titled Beyond Either/Or. That was the business of the post conflict era, using the imperfect institutions of the Belfast Agreement build for an era of multiplicity and pluralism.
Without some robust nationalist engagement with that it will remain an empty British shell (with a few tricolours stickered all over it). The battles over symbols are a proxy for that mission, but not an adequate replacement for it. The battles have to go in-house and fought over the tiniest realisable things.
That requires nationalism to take a democratic risk that the UI that so many dreamed of may not happen in the way they thought. Indeed, I doubt it can. New terms for a unified Ireland will have to emerge from the joint project as it goes forward. Stormont in that regard is the new New Ireland forum.
It will certainly not come from forcing Unionists to eat their greens until they are sick.
PS Nev, I did not mean to imply we were all bound at the hip before 1798. But the bonds forged in that particular revolutionary fire fell apart spectacularly quickly for an event that still carries in the DNA of Irish Republicanism to this day.
“RTE at no 1 on you telly and 50euro to see the doctor. What’s the big mystery?”
This has already been the case for me since the digital switchover… first 8 channels are RTÉ/TV3!
“But the bonds forged in that particular revolutionary fire”
Mick, what’s your interpretation of that Fr McNally letter? For me, Irish republicanism in Ulster is rooted in Catholic Defenderism and the references to Tone are no more than a mythical narrative. A T Q Stewart’s Summer Soldiers is an interesting exploration of the essentially Presbyterian men of some property rebellion in Antrim and Down.
Mick, here’s a link to Robin Wilson’s Beyond Either/Or. I’ll respond to it later on today after making a small contribution to the survival of the local economy!
James O’Laverty was a great historian, and PP of Holywood for 30 years. You can add the Monaghan Militia to that mix too, but consider also that four of them were also shot after 70 of them declared for the United Irishmen.
The platonic idea of the United Irishman may be a creation of mythology. Myths are often casually denigrated as lies these days, but they can contain deeper truths about the world, or at least provide us with guides as to how we might try to live in it.
In this respect I agree with David Crooks. Our politics has to have a soul and a robust sense of its own truths. It’s the abandonment of the truth even as a semantic notion that’s killing our politics (“oh lord, DO let me be misunderstood”).
Ulster is and always was faction riven. Take the adverts for Donegal Tourism from about ten years ago: ‘it’s different up here’. There was a generosity of spirit around and some emerging sense of who we are as a people in a very short time just after the Belfast Agreement was signed.
Time, the political cynicism that drove endless post GFA negotiations and an almost, but not quite, absolute victory of the extremes has served to wither that generosity away. But it’s still early days, and these problems have been with us for generations. Rome, etc..
The work of the last ten years, for me, has been about establishing and stabilising the institutions. Do they do much? Well, no, not much. But they haven’t fallen over. Yet the system’s inflexibilities are creating a crisis for the two profoundly inflexible parties charged with responsibility for working it.
Neither has much in the way of real world politics to feed the machine with, nor the confidence to make the deals that will create credible delivery. But to some extent what we’ve seen with this #Fleg crisis has seen a bunch of youngsters nobody loves (in the political sense) blowing a whistle and pointing out that the twin Emperors of Stormont have no clothes.
That’s why I think Heaney is relevant here. He’s the nearest we have to one of Shelley’s poetic legislators:
Believe in miracles
and cures and healing wells.
Call the miracle self-healing:
The utter self-revealing
double-take of feeling.
He did not write that, I suspect, with any Calvinstic sense that once signed, the Good Friday Agreement would heal us all. Sinn Fein are right (and the DUP, pre SAA, were wrong) in the sense that this is a process, not an event.
But the process has to be such that more than one person or one group can control or manipulate. It cannot be a one way gaming machine and remain legitimate in the eyes of the wider populace.
In other words, on some level it has to serve the public good, not just the good of political parties or indeed their leaders.
It will be shaped into something sustainable only through prolonged engagment where people on both sides can bring something to the table, without feeling the periodic need to run out the door and publicly scarify the neighbours.
“SF have absolutely no clue what form a united Ireland will take.”
Northern Ireland, in terms of population, is about the size of Merseyside or Hampshire. Should HM Government choose to abolish them tomorrow, and merge them into a revived Lancashire or Wessex, then it could do so without the slightest difficulty. There’s no need to make a song and dance about it: you just get on and do it. You don’t need to debate what colour the dustbins are going to be. No doubt there will be much grumbling in local government bodies who have carved out a niche for themselves, but hopefully it will bring savings and greater efficiency.
What form will a UI take? It will have 32 counties instead of 26. There will be one jurisdiction on the island instead of (ridiculously) two.
“Why should Cornish Nationalists be attracted to a united Wessex?”
Well they wouldn’t be, would they? However, as Cornish Nationalists are a minority even in Cornwall, this doesn’t matter.
“What sort of United Lancashire do you have in mind?” Well, much the same as the one that used to exist before the present carve-up. Simples.
Paddy,
“Should HM Government choose to abolish them tomorrow.”
There’s the small matter Trimble’s (http://goo.gl/mCC1y) principle of consent?
I think you have put your finger on what is in fact the Republic’s plug on the GFA.
What happens is thus:-
1) Nationalists win 6 seats from Unionists and thus have a plurality in Stormont: M. McGuinness is elected 1st minister.
2) The Republic, on application from the 1st Minister, retracts from this part of the GFA given that it is no longer democratic in any imaginable sense of the word and reasserts the constitutional claim to the whole of Ireland.
3) The GFA is about to collapse and Westminster panics.
4) The Irish Republic states that it will shore up the agreement if yearly referendums on unity, or possibly just some aspect of unity, are held.
5) Westminster agrees. Ireland unifies piecemeal, one entity at a time, prisons police, customs, hospitals etc.
Yearly referendums? Institutionalized chaos, with everybody up to high doh. The end of anything like normal life. A permanent state of campaign. (One of the referendums doesn’t go the right way. Even more chaos.) Eternal rallies. Interminable meetings. Earnest unemployed halfwits with megaphones. A continual orgy of crowing and yelping from the various local politicians. The appearance of new paramilitary organizations. Demands for repartition. Strikes, stoppages, blocked roads, and riots. Exhausted police. Huge military presence. Many squalid murders. Son (or Sons) of Rambo Stone. Cold feet in Dublin. No thanks, NI. It’s all right. Stay the way you are. We don’t want you.
I’d love to know if anyone inside any of the political parties has done or has ever even considered preparing a scenario plan that even remotely looks like that Paddy.
What is about the office of First Minister (as opposed to deputy First) that makes you believe that he can apply to the Republic to rip up an international treaty that he’s not even a party to?
In the unlikely event anyone at Stormont was daft enough to do such a thing, what makes you think he’d be told anything other than to ‘catch himself on?’
*******Breaking New*******
The Historical Enquiries Team have been called into investigate claims that Sinn Fein have never had any policy on a united Ireland. The calls come following a person purporting to be Alex Maskey turned Queens Evidence live on television. Sinn Fein have so far strenuously defended Alex Maskey pointing out he was just asked the “the wrong questions” and two weeks in a re-education camp once they decide what the policy actually is should vindicate his position.
Sinn Fein also refused to speculate on claims that Mr Maskey had made Willie Frazier appear like Cicero. The suspect argument found at the BBC was later declared a hoax after inspection by a technical unit found “Sure it will all be okay lads in a 32 county Republic” was not a viable device. Political forensics experts are a now searching through forty years of speeches and sound bites to ascertain whether Sinn Fein will ever be capable of making a viable political statement. After the program Edwin Poots is said to be seeking legal advice on claims he is the NHS on both sides of the border “I have never been the NHS, I only provide political analysis for that organisation” he stated.
The cruellest and funniest form of satire is the truth. That posting deserves a fish supper, Gopher. Buy yourself one on the way home.
I recently reread Godson’s biography of Trimble and what struck me once again was the quite brilliant role (on their terms) the Department of Foreign Affairs played on behalf of NI nationalism.
What also struck me, when watching Alex Maskey’s performance the other night, was their quiet competence and efficiency- small things like preparing for what may happen when people seemingly call your bluff and ask you how you see things proceeding if your wish is granted.
Those boys and girls wanted a “protected” Irish nationalism but under the aegis and sustained by the budget of Westminster. They achieved that.
SF will need the same level of detached professionalism if they are to achieve anything worth achieving from their demand and with the backstory of their present leadership and the “on the ground” demands of their core electorate they are not capable of achieving that “distance”
What is about the office of First Minister (as opposed to deputy First) that makes you believe that he can apply to the Republic to rip up an international treaty that he’s not even a party to?
1) The Six Counties is a part of Ireland. The 1937 Constitution recognised it as such and asserted a right to legislate for it.
2) If the Six Counties, as a whole and with the consent of all the constituent parts, votes in a referendum which agrees to trade this unenforceable assertion for a just settlement which benefits majority and minority, then it is proper to suspend the claim.
3) If at some future time it becomes likely that a majority of the people of the Six Counties believe that they should be a part of a unitary Ireland, then it is the duty of the Irish Republic to reassert this claim.
4) The election of a Sinn Féin MLA as First Minister is prima facie evidence that the majority in the Six County area now favour a unitary state: just as the continuance in office of a DUP MLA as 1st minister is prima facie evidence that we have not yet reached this position.
5) This hypothesis must be subject to reasonable testing, in the form of referenda at frequent intervals.
6) The GLA agrees to subject Northern Ireland to the rule of the European Convention on Human Rights. Consequently, the provisions of the ECHR (democracy, majority rule) take precedence over any other clause of the GLA.
That’s better. But I think we are discovering that 3 is purely speculative… NILT is a better determinant…
Proving the political will is the crucial part of the equation, not just who the public elected…
NILT? Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey? This takes precedence over the results of an election? It’s the other way round, mate. Elections trump polls.
Hmm, not the way you’re laying it out. You’re suggesting sovereignty should flip on a plurality, and because SF get to be the largest party.
Would you grant Scottish independence on the basis that it’s the leading option. Scottish equivalent of NILT puts it at: independence 35%; Devo max 32%; status quo 24%; and no devolution 6%?
“Heaney is relevant here”
Heaney is a wordsmith but can he read our political landscape? Also from the “Cure of Troy”:
But then, once in a lifetime
the longed for tidal wave
of justice can rise up,
and hope and history rhyme.
Well, our two relatively balanced tribal groups have opposing hopes and conflicting views of history so where does the rhyme or reason fit?
This isn’t the first piece of practical nonsense I’ve noted in Seamus’ poetry. You don’t ‘heave sods over your shoulder’ – unless Derry peatcutters are a bit short on dog-wit
This lack of rhyme and reason also manifests itself in the activities of our government departments as a friend and I noted yesterday. DSD, DETI and Moyle DC have spent some money trying to stimulate business in Ballycastle town centre as DRD spent even more money killing it off.
It may take a tidal wave to get this widow some justice; DRD and the MSM appear to have an innate sense of irresponsibility. Are there no poets out there who can shame them into action?
The fault does not lie with the poet for being impractical Nev…