Spanish troops mass on Catalunya’s borders…
Well,perhaps not quite, although as El Economista reports:
(The) Spanish Military Association (SMA) has warned Monday that those who cooperate or allow “fracture” of Spain should “respond with all the utmost rigor” in the courts in the field of military courts by the “serious charge high treason.
(Google translate gives the gist)
Meanwhile in the real world Artur knows what he’s doing methinks. The FT (subscription needed but it’s free to subscribe) chronicles the events of the last few weeks. Catalan with Spain’s future in his hands - (The FT doesn’t like cutting and pasting but welcomes you to read it yourselves).
The Economist asks:
Europe’s next independent state?
THE banner in Barcelona’s central Placa de Catalunya square reads: “Catalonia, next independent state in Europe”. After a huge, peaceful march with flags and banners through the city on September 11th brought together an estimated 8% of the region’s 7.5m population, a once-exotic idea has suddenly come to life.
A demonstration with 8% of the population for “Independencia” is pretty impressive for Catalunya and has pushed Artur Mas’s Convergència i Unió into a Catalan election with a promise of an independence referendum.
The Independent thinks that Spain should be nervous:
(President) Rajoy should perhaps take heed more than ever. The prospect of Catalan independence should bring him out in a cold sweat. To lose such a massive chunk of the economy and still be left with the worst performing regions in the South would spell tragedy.
It could also set a dangerous precedent elsewhere in Europe where austerity at home coupled with contributions to bailouts and stability funds abroad are sources of rising nationalism too.
With its own unity, and that of Europe in mind, Madrid needs to readdress its relationship with the most treasured jewel in its once glorious crown. There needs to be sensible compromise with the Catalans, or Spain faces the reality of a disastrous split which is certain to draw the attention of an already precariously united Europe.
The Catalan election is on November 25…exciting times.
But what is the proportion of Catalan residents who are opposed to separation? We never get told only hearing about the vociferous demonstrators numerous as they may be.
The SNP will anxiously watch Catalonian developoments. Secession would sink their EU strategy, especially since Barca is a lot more broke than auld Reekie
For Framer,
The last polls before the demostration occurred on September 11, show the 51% for the independence and 23% against (The rest did not know or was abstaining vote). So if it translates to a referendum, we are talking about 65% of votes in favor of independence.
Framer – find out and let me know.
If Spain thinks it can militarily stop Catalan self-determination, they are stuck in a time warp. Surely a deal would be done on the national debt share allocated to an independent Catalunya in return for Spanish EU membership recognition. This is assuming that a consultative referendum supported independence – which is obviously an unknown at the moment.
Framer According to the ever reliable wikipedia, polls in recent years consistently show a majority in favour of independence. A series of referenda in municipalities showed consistent results in the %90 region in favour, though with very low turnouts throughout. Maybe those against did not bother to vote.
The use of the Canadian Army to secure Anglophone portions of Quebec lying near Ontario has been mooted in the event of a yes vote to a future independence vote.
I doubt it will ever happen, for democracy to function, local wishes must be respected – the unjust disaster that was Irish or Indian partition won’t quickly be repeated elsewhere.