Slugger O'Toole

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Hollande wins in France…

Sun 6 May 2012, 7:29pm

According to reported early estimates

Socialist Francois Hollande has been elected as France’s new president, early estimates say.

He got about 52% of votes in Sunday’s run-off, according to projections based on partial results, against 48% for centre-right incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy.

The Guardian’s live-blog will have further updates.

As for what it means for the fiscal pact, and the wider Euro crisis, I think the results in Greece may prove to be more significant.

Exit polls in the Greek parliamentary election suggest the two main parties have suffered dramatic losses.

The latest polls put centre-right New Democracy in the lead with 19-20.5% of the vote, down from 33.5% in 2009.

Centre-left Pasok is put in third place with 13-14%, down from 43.9%. Syriza, a left-wing coalition, is put ahead of it in second place with 15.5-17%.

….

Othan Anastasakis, director of south-east European studies at Oxford University, said it would be “incredible” if no party won more than 20% of the vote.

“This is really unprecedented, he said.

“The whole landscape becomes even more unpredictable after the election. We don’t know if there will be a coalition or how long it will survive. I don’t see it surviving very long.

“Greeks are sending a very strong message abroad, which is ‘enough with austerity’.”

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Comments (18)

  1. Mick Fealty (profile) says:

    You get the sense of why SF and the ULA are so keen on confronting the European establishment over the fiscal compact. Or rather having the Irish government take the risk of being locked out of he ESM?

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  2. Drumlins Rock (profile) says:

    Good job there is a bank holiday tomorrow, the markets might not drop just as quick on Tuesday!

    Mick, with two countries looking as if they have swung left if they pull it off then SF & ULA could cash in on it, but if things get worse (more likely option in my opinion) then it will boost the FG/Lab coalition. Can Germany drive the Eurozone alone? Interesting times.

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  3. cynic2 (profile) says:

    Given the commitment to renegotiate the full deal, how can the referrendum proceed? Just what are the Irish voting for? Who knows?

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  4. So?

    There was a fair and legal election (actually, there were two, a fortnight apart).

    The people made a choice — 80%+ voted.

    And we need confirmation (thank you, Drumlin’s Rock!) from the markets?

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  5. Drumlins Rock (profile) says:

    Malcolm, did I mention anything about it not being a fair election? Did I say it needed confirmed by the markets? Will the markets drop on Tuesday? We are all shareholders one way or another, and the currency exchange rate has a very immediate effect on the border here.

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  6. lover not a fighter (profile) says:

    If a caged hen in an egg factory can be a share holder then maybe we are all shareholders in one way or another.

    The bankers keep demanding their eggs except they want smaller and smaller cages and less chicken feed for the battery hens.

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  7. DC (profile) says:

    Holland wins in France, didn’t know there was football on.

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  8. Sorry, Drumlins Rock @ 9:48 pm, I still don’t get your point.

    November 1932: should the US Electoral College (OK: that’s another thread) have awaited the judgments of “the markets” before confirming FDR as President? Surely “the markets” would have preferred Lord Halifax to that dreadful bounder, Churchill, in 1940? Etc.; etc.

    So what has changed? Since “share-holders” may nominally — but cannot in actuality — decide the succession for their CEO, what is important here?

    Why should a few points either way on the CAC40 matter more than the collective will of those 35,885,80 French persons who exercised their democratic prerogative? Will there now be a border checks and currency controls when I next cross the A47/B52 bridge at Belleek? Or is someone getting antsy here?

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  9. Correction: 35,885,801.

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  10. Jimmy Sands (profile) says:

    I’m sure the Markets have factored in Hollande. It was hardly a surprise. Besides, once he has the parliamentary elections out of the way, the walking back will no doubt begin. Greece could be more troubling. It’s genuinely difficult to predict what happens next.

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  11. Harry Flashman (profile) says:

    The BBC are telling us that Hollande has one by a “clear” majority (51.7% versus 48.3), which is odd coz when Boris Johnson won the London mayoralty on almost precisely the same margin (51.53% versus 48.47%) they told us it was a “close” result and he won by only a “narrow margin”.

    Now I know the BBC news department isn’t staffed by a bunch of lefties because they keep telling us it isn’t but I’m only sayin’ is all.

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  12. Now there’s a coincidence, Harry Flashman @ 2:58 am.

    I noticed almost the same vocabulary on Sky News.

    How can we explain that?

    Oh, and over in the Telegraph, “Boris narrowly beat Ken Livingstone”, while Hollande inflicted “a humiliating defeat on Mr Sarkozy”.

    So, is this a game we all can play? Or is it a private paranoia?

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  13. Gosh, this is uncanny.

    Here’s the Irish Times with

    — “Johnson, who as one of the most popular politicians in Mr Cameron’s own party is tipped as a possible future prime minister, saw his majority slashed, claiming victory only after a lengthy count that had put him head to head with his rival’

    and:

    — “French socialist François Hollande ousted president Nicolas Sarkozy in a convincing election win”.

    Harry must be right here: it’s all part of the global conspiracy. I blame it on the giant lizards.

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  14. Harry Flashman (profile) says:

    Well called Malc, point yours I think.

    (Although the Irish Times reference is hardly convincing given that they’re of the same stripe as the Beeb.)

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  15. Drumlins Rock (profile) says:

    It obvious you don’t get it, my point was merely reflecting the markets will probably fall when they open, because of the TWO election results, yes there was Greek election too you might have noticed if your read past the first paragraph. Markets onlt give a very short term view, it will be interesting to see just what it is like. The bond markets have a more serious impact these days and surely its not impossible the TWO election results will push Spanish & Italian bonds closer to the magic 7%? Democracy should over rule, just be prepared for the cost is all I’m saying.

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  16. Comrade Stalin (profile) says:

    Harry, last night I heard a BBC journalist describing Hollande as a “second rate politician” and as a politician with the charisma of a bank manager. That must be those lefties at work.

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  17. Comrade Stalin (profile) says:

    I don’t think we should ignore the markets but we shouldn’t use them as a yardstick for making political decisions. The markets aren’t responsible; the economic crisis at present is a consequence of delegating too much authority to them.

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  18. Framer (profile) says:

    Markets rise and fall but invisibly discount future events. Watch for the unexpected one.

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