Was Gallagher ‘holed above or below the water line’?
It’s worth following the Irish Times live blog today… Interesting speculation that the spectacular media ambush may not have hit its intended mark:
08:44
The big question of course is just how badly damaged Sean Gallagher was by last Monday’s Prime Time ambush. As one pundit put it, the good ship Gallagher has been holed; the question is whether it’s above or below the waterline. Judging by some of the vox pops on RTÉ radio this morning, support for him remains strong in many parts.
pops on RTÉ radio this morning, support for him remains strong in many parts.
It will be late afternoon early evening before the first tallies come through.
Regardless, the lower turnout of around 2/3 of the General Election is likely to mean the SF core vote has an exaggerated inpact on its % support in the Republic. It will be able to claim victory regardless, which is what it does. If the ambush has reduced the % margins between the top three or four, all the better. For SF this was always a numbers game.
Initial tally, courtesy Pentagon Computers, from Cork South Central at 09:51
Higgins 45.7
Gallagher 23.2
McGuinness 16.0
Norris 6.2
Mitchell 4.6
Scallon 2.5
Davis 1.9
.http://bit.ly/tcJ0dU
Good point TD. Gallaghers performance will be fascinating. The Ambush came very late in the day, and may have had more effect on shoring up support amongst independents/ULA than damaging SG per se.
Same source for Cork South Central has:
MDH on 43.9%, Gallagher on 20.3%, MMG on 23.1% at 9.26am.
Is my bet still safe?
Initial tally for Dublin South West:
Higgins – 44.6
Gallagher – 22.1
McGuinness – 12.2
Mitchell – 6.8
Norris – 9.0
Davis – 3.0
Scallan – 2.2
Early tallies on Politics.ie indicate that Higgins is well ahead across the country. Gallagher is even doing badly even in his home county which sounds ominous. McG generally polling around 16%.The real story of this election though may well be the collapse in the Fine Gael vote. I dont think that they will be able to put that down entirely to the individual in question.
Meath East (25% boxes opened)
Higgins 40%
Gallagher 30%
McGuinness 16%
Dana 2%
Norris 5%
Davis 2%
Mitchell 5%
Ya Rory!!
Dublin South Central (11% open)
Higgins 31%
McGuinness 29%
Gallagher 15%
Norris 10%
mitchell 9%
Davis 3%
Dana 2%
Looks like below at this stage
Dublin North Central 18 boxes counted
Higgins 41.39%
Gallagher 23.4%
McG 16.87%
Norris 10.7%
I wouldn’t put too much store by the early tallies just yet, as most are based on small fractions of the total number of boxes.
Well, If you are right Mick and Seán suffered a grave injusdice at the hands of the media then when the truth comes out he has always the option of Dail politics. At least there he could hold a position where he could actually make a difference to jobs and prosperity unlike the Presidency.
Dublin South East – 6,868 votes counted
Higgins 3287
Gallagher 1037
McGuinness 902
Norris 869
Mitchell 413
Davis 205
Dana 155
From Twitter, a most discerning inquiry:
paolotullio Paolo Tullio
I’m puzzled. Why would a thrusting, dynamic, job-creating entrepreneur want to sit in the aras for 7 years? Unless he’s gone broke
Gallagher now being quoted at 75-1 on Betfair
Once the final count is in, an interesting question could arise (which might be worthy of a separate thread):
If northerners had been allowed to vote in the Presidential election (as they arguably should be entitled to under the Good Friday Agreement), how much closer to victory could SF have been?
Mick F
Why do you persist in claiming Gallagher was ambushed, unless I missed it you said no such thing when Norris and the letter hit the MSM, nor when SF leaders were called to account. Surely this is the cut and thrust of democratic politics, something which in recent years only those further down the political food chain had to experience, whilst the tops gorged at the public trough.(Gallagher included)
As important, why do you continue to harp on about your so called ‘ambush, yet leave to one side the importance of his sham independent candidature. For most voters I would guess his close links with FF tops are far more important than Morgans ‘envelope’ alone.
Unfairly I am sure, but it looks like you are preparing the ground for Slicks failure. ie he did his best but was brought down by the MSM, which is tosh, as whatever the result, like the rest of the Candidates, Gallaghar was master of his own destiny. Like many of his ilk in the past, he clearly thought he was untouchable, hence as I posted yesterday it will be interesting where his campaign money came from.
Cork South Central 25% counted
Higgins 45%
Gallagher 23%
McG 15%
Norris 6%
Mitchell 4%
Dana 3%
Davis 2%
Donegal North East 50 boxes open
McGuinness 38%
Gallagher 28%
Higgins 18%
Dana 4.7%
Mitchell 4.3%
Norris 3%
Davis 1.5%
11:06 (Betfair)
Higgins 1/33
Gallagher 49/1
This will be a milestone election. A party Sinn Fein has actually won an election, just not for their guy. Michael D will be reminded a lot that he owes his victory to Martin and co.
Have to see I agree with the comments of Mickhall. And even if there was an ambush, it could only be carried out because Gallagher loaded the gun for the Shinners to fire.
We can`t say however that the result will have been disaster for FF, prior to Monday night there redemption was about to confirmed. Gallagher blew it for them. FF must take the positives that before stepping back from Gallagher the electorate were prepared to bring them back in from the cold after a relatively short period.
According to RTÉ,
Donegal South West, tallies show Seán Gallagher on 32%, Michael D Higgins on 29% and Martin McGuinness on 22%.
“We can`t say however that the result will have been disaster for FF, prior to Monday night there redemption was about to confirmed. Gallagher blew it for them. FF must take the positives that before stepping back from Gallagher the electorate were prepared to bring them back in from the cold after a relatively short period.”
But they didn’t step back from Gallagher the Man after Monday, they stepped back from Gallagher the FF Trojan Horse. It is precisely because his FF connections were highlighted so starkly that his support dropped, which suggests that the electorate aren’t yet prepared to bring the party back in from the cold.
If Donegal SW tally is correct it seems to be quite a drop in SF vote – obviously P.Doherty pulls in a big personal vote
Donegal SW tallies would depend on where boxes came from – same with most. Based on what is being said Higgins appears to be home and hosed.
If Coco is a bad third in Donegal then even the shinners will find that hard to spin.
… or Gallagher was a busted flush from the original deal, even in the County Louth. But someone, somewhere needed to engineer a bit of excitement, so we had this media hype.
The overall winner (in status, if not getting the seven-year tenancy of the tied cottage) may yet prove to be McGuinness. If SF come close to doubling the %age tally since February, the detoxification of that brand continues apace.
” If Coco is a bad third in Donegal then even the shinners will find that hard to spin.”
… and if they are a credible third nationally will you concede a well played game, Jimmy ?
Some real random stuff happening – In one box in Galway City, Mitchell failed to get a single vote out of 300 votes counted. Quite astonishing.
We need too to remember that it was only last week we were talking about a late surge for Gallagher pushing him as a front-runner, and that when McG launched you would have thought from some that he was a slam dunk for the Aras on a wave of ‘independent’ hubris.
McG may have holed Gallagher late in the day, but doubtful he has done himself or SF any favours in the long term. Whatever the national message, it would seem too that the message didn’t get through to Dublin West.
In the end, the people seem to have opted for something dull and unexciting – and given the state of the Republic and the Euroland rumbles, maybe that is what is required.
Sorry: I’m trying to cope with thedissenter @ 2:35 pm representing the Micky D intellect as “dull and unexciting”.
Back after this reality check:
It’s been rough and rocky travelin’,
But I’m finally standin’ upright on the ground.
After takin’ several readings,
I’m surprised to find my mind`s still fairly sound.
The Irish Times live blog is now stating that McGuinness is doing well in some Dublin constituencies in which he is vying for 2nd place. Tallies place him on 24.7 in Dublin NW and 20% in Dublin NE.
… and if they are a credible third nationally will you concede a well played game, Jimmy ?
I’ll do more than that, I’ll concede that he appeals to have won the election. Just not for himself.
… and if they are a credible third nationally will you concede a well played game, Jimmy ?
I’ll do more than that, I’ll concede that he appears to have won the election. Just not for himself.
If McGuinness finishes third that’s a very good result, SF will be happy and FG needs to take a moment of reflection.
It’s all over now, baby Blueshirt.
“But they didn’t step back from Gallagher the Man after Monday, they stepped back from Gallagher the FF Trojan Horse. “
They didn’t though. With the perception of Gallagher as old school FF having been firmly established by the media (if unfairly) in the last week – it looks like he got around 33% of the vote (current tallies from RTE).
When the dust settles FF hq will be delighted with that.
Jimmy Sands:
“If Coco is a bad third in Donegal then even the shinners will find that hard to spin.”
Perhaps, however some may have decided to vote Higgins 1 as the best option for keeping Gallagher out…
There’s a chance Higgins might reach the quota without needing Mc Guinness’ transfers.
FG will have learned a few things from this, leastways they they will if they’ve any sense. Among them will be that their nomination process sucks and the fact that Charlie Flanagan must be among the most inept campaign managers currently breathing.
Perhaps, however some may have decided to vote Higgins 1 as the best option for keeping Gallagher out…
Do natives of that county struggle with the concept of STV?
This is now officially the worst Fine Gael performance in the history of presidential elections. The previous worst was Austin Currie with 17.01% in 1990.
Disappointed. He was taken out with LBJ “Just let him deny it” smear-politics. On the positive side, the man who wielded the dagger will not wear the crown. And it looks like the dangerous Oireachtas Inquiries referendum could be rejected. That is the more important vote to me. If passed it would allow the govt to determine the rights of persons called before Committee and allow those Committees to find you guilty even of activities like murder. And you would have no recourse to the courts. If that’s beaten I will sleep happily tonight.
Brian Boru
Amen to that. That will be the real story and today’s highlight if it happens. The coverage of this significant issue in the mainstream media has been lamentable.
RTE now reporting that Higgins is a cert – appears likely to poll 39-40% 1st prefs, Gallagher 27-28% and McG on c. 15%.
It’s being reported that Higgins could win the election even before McGuinness/Gallagher (whoever’s third) is eliminated.
That figure of 15% being quoted from RTE perhaps gives a real indication of the attack made by McGuinness on The Frontline debate.
Gallagher has managed, even after the fiasco, to retain pretty much the same core % of the 2011 FF vote as McGuinness has retained of the 2011 SF GE vote. Surely this was the vote that SF were afte?. They saw the chance to take the FF vote en masse after FF decided not to officially field a candidate.
One can only wonder what the SF % would have been without that Frontline debate. Maybe Gallagher was retaining ALL the FF core vote and SF would have made NO inroads. Maybe the Frontline ambush was necessary from a SF to even leave themselves with a % that justified their running strategy?
I’m sure McGuinness didn’t conduct that ambush to do the State or Higgins some service or out of the good of his community spirited heart…….
The urban-rural divide I predicted has come to pass. In Dublin, Higgins leads gallagher 46-16, compared to 37-31 or level in Leinster (excluding Dublin), Connaught-Ulster and Munster.
Gallagher leads by 20% in Cavan and Donegal NE (Pearse Doherty’s constituency) , Laois-IOffaly (Brian Cowen’s former constituency) and Tipperary North (Michael Lowry’s).
Clarification: the 20% Gallagher lead is in Cavan. He has a small lead in Donegal NE.