McGuinness: success is just about losing well?

Martin McGuinness’ entry into the Presidential race has surely shook things up. However while some of the shriller media commentary has focused on the danger of him winning, it is past time to ask what would really constitute a victory for McGuinness and Sinn Féin. For this discussion we may need to abandon the ludicrous notion he was ever ‘in it to win it’.

If you accept SF didn’t enter their star man into the contest to be beaten and he isn’t going to win, what could their success criterion be?

I’d suggest:

A triumph:
Winning

A victory:
Polling and/or finishing 2nd
17+%

Draw
Polling and/or finishing 3rd
12-17%

Loss
Finishing under third
Polling under 12%

Destroyed
Finishing 4th or below and polling under 10%

However, I think the real opportunity for SF in this election is the chance to identify their ‘top line’ while FF are sidelined. Anything over their 10% base, anything transfered – that’s their target vote. Surely with FF out of the picture, SF’s main target in this election is identifing swing voters for the next time?

What’s your call? How do we judge a SF win?

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