Long ‘hot’ summer makes little dent in the UK polls…

Not sure I’m convinced by today’s Westminster gossip that David Cameron is getting a poll bounce (albeit a mini one) from Libya or his response to the Libya crisis.

If you check out Anthony’s UK Polling Report tracker, you see the only clear pattern is the collapse of the Lib Dems, and the hovering of the Conservatives and Labour between mid thirties and forty.

In truth, the changes haven’t really broken out of the three per cent error margin since February. The UK public has neither decisively shifted away from the government so much as it is hedging its bets. Libya and the riots have still to be convincingly unpacked politically by both big teams at Westminster in a way that makes some kind of coherent sense to the wider public.

The inordinately tough sentences is a result of judicial activism, only endorsed by some of the public and a few opportunist politicians. And even the Appeals court may have the last word on that. And the UK’s contribution Libya remains too esoteric (or is that covert?) for anyone to take much credit for how it’s gone (so far).

Elephantopotomus, a commenter on James Kirkup’s blog has a point:

Maybe these polls would be a bit more meaningful if people could tell the difference between the two major parties.

When we see a trend, we’ll let you know.

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