Long ‘hot’ summer makes little dent in the UK polls…

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Not sure I’m convinced by today’s Westminster gossip that David Cameron is getting a poll bounce (albeit a mini one) from Libya or his response to the Libya crisis.

If you check out Anthony’s UK Polling Report tracker, you see the only clear pattern is the collapse of the Lib Dems, and the hovering of the Conservatives and Labour between mid thirties and forty.

In truth, the changes haven’t really broken out of the three per cent error margin since February. The UK public has neither decisively shifted away from the government so much as it is hedging its bets. Libya and the riots have still to be convincingly unpacked politically by both big teams at Westminster in a way that makes some kind of coherent sense to the wider public.

The inordinately tough sentences is a result of judicial activism, only endorsed by some of the public and a few opportunist politicians. And even the Appeals court may have the last word on that. And the UK’s contribution Libya remains too esoteric (or is that covert?) for anyone to take much credit for how it’s gone (so far).

Elephantopotomus, a commenter on James Kirkup’s blog has a point:

Maybe these polls would be a bit more meaningful if people could tell the difference between the two major parties.

When we see a trend, we’ll let you know.

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  • http://www.thedissenter.co.uk thedissenter

    Not sure Libya would be a real factor. Clear that niether Britain or France or both combined, even if Italy et al came alongside had the weaponry to carry out the campaign. It became NATO (the Americans) very quickly. The public isn’t that daft, they know the limits and see bluster for what it is. And as for the riots, Cameron wasn’t about most of them, and are many convinced it was only when Dave took charge that the police got on top of things? The only thing Dave’s return prompted was a side-lining of Theresa May, and that was probably best for the poll numbers as she was crashing on all fronts. Hasn’t been a great summer. Interesting to see what the Conference season brings.

  • Scáth Shéamais

    David Cameron is getting a poll bounce (albeit a mini one) from Libya or his response to the Libya crisis.

    War, what is it good for?

  • Neil

    War, what is it good for?

    Re-election.