#ae11 Reveal your Assembly predictions
Mick has noted two prediction competitions for the Assembly election but didn’t make a call for Slugger’s friends, contributors and readers to risk their credibility and reveal their predictions publicly in advance.
So folks lets be having you, your chance to be revealed as genius or the global village idiot….
Here are mine:
DUP 36
SF 30
UUP 16
SDLP 14
Alliance 7
Green 1
TUV 1
PBPA 1 – McCann
Purvis
McFarland
Tags: ae11, Assembly Elections 2011, Prediction competition, predictions
Topic: Government, Politics
Region: Ireland, Northern Ireland
Topic: Government, Politics
Region: Ireland, Northern Ireland
DUP 34, Sinn Féin 27, SDLP 18, UUP 16, Alliance 8, Ind 3, Green 1, TUV 1
Nathan,
Can you unpack the 3 Inds?
don’t quote me on it, but is that virtually no change? Switching McCann for Deeny and McClarty for Allister.
DUP 36, SF 28, SDLP 18, UUP 15, AP 8, Green Party 1,
Dawn Purvis 1 , Eamonn McCann 1.
And that completes the voting of the ‘greenflag ‘ jury
A peaceful and incident free election to all candidates and voters .
DUP 35, SF 30, SDLP 15, UUP 14, AP 9, TUV 3, Others 2.
TUV seats in N.Antrim, Lag Valley and E. Ldry.
Others, McCann and McFarland
Sorry, if you want more detail:
DUP 34, Sinn Féin 27, SDLP 18, UUP 16, Alliance 8, Ind 3 (Purvis, McFarland, McClarty), Green 1, TUV 1
Drumlins,
Mine is
DUP =
SF +2
UUP -2
SDLP -2
APNI =
TUV +1
Green =
PUP -1
PBPA +1
Purvis/McFarland (Inds) +2
Deeney – gone
DUP 36
SF 29
SDLP 16
UUP 16
APNI 7
TUV 1
Ind 3 (purvis/ mcfarland/ mcclarty)
DUP 34, SF 30, SDLP 17, UUP 15, APNI 8, TUV1, Dawn P 1, Ind (N Down) 2.
It seems people generally think the only really interesting battle will be over if SF can get near the magically 30 that would permit a Petition of Concern – a veto over everything.
All the other variations being suggested seem to have a minor impact on Ministerial picks, not the broader political balance of the Assembly?
I don’t buy the McFarland thing. McClarty has a better chance I reckon.
The UUP possible or probable losses are to my mind (in no particular order):
East Londonderry
North Belfast
North Down
East Antrim
My money is on John McCallister being safe. I also think that it would be a big ask for anyone else to take the UUP second in Upper Bann, I don’t see a second shinner happening, or Vance doing anything. Lagan Valley is a similar position where it will either be a DUP 4th or a UUP 2nd, and if they didn’t manage 4 with Donaldson, can they really do it without him?
The UUP should pick up extra seats in West Tyrone, Strangford and South Antrim (in order). Whether they do or not is another matter, particularly in South Antrim. Half of an outside chance of Donaldson taking a seat in Dungannon if he’s very lucky.
But for me, Elliott will win this election if the quality of the average UUP MLA rises even if the numbers fall. I guess on the particular facts of this election, on that basis, he can’t actually lose. Aside from the McClarty disgrace, and ditching Empey for no particular good reason, this election was won 6 months ago.
That is barring a total disaster. So I guess we’ll have to see.
DUP 36
SINN FEIN 30
SDLP 17
UUP 11
ALLIANCE 9
TUV 2
IND 2 ( MCCLARTY AND MCFARLAND)
GREENS 1
sdlp – 28 (before defections)
dup – 20
uup – 22
all – 18
sf – 13 (unlucky for some)
green – 4
purvis – 1
pbp – 2 (got a £5 on a west belfast seat tonight at 66/1)
DUP 33
SF 30
UUP 17
SDLP 14
Alliance 8
TUV 3 (Nth Antrim, Lagan Valley & East Derry)
Green 1
PUP 0
Ind 2 (Purvis & McFarland)
Just can’t see a UUP meltdown. And I’m surprised at the predictions for Eamonn McCann tbh… but Friday will tell!
Lads your all wrong!! This is the winning entry
DUP 35
SF 27
SDLP 19
UUP 17
ALL 8
TUV 1
McFarland 1
The word I think you have been on the lash all day with those predictions
I think from this we can all clearly see how useful a commentator on Slugger ‘The Word’ really is.
Mark
“useful” – no-one uses me, unlike Sinn Fein, you’ll see.
I see I still make you nervous.
UUP meltdown was always unlikely despite their own best efforts. Its the nature of the election interesting to note if there were only 5 seats/ constituency then UUP and SDLP would be in a spot of bother
DUP 36 Sinn Fein 26 SDLP 18 UUP 15 GP 1 AP 8 IND 2 TUV 1 PBP 1
Does Mick Fealty have credit/debit card numbers?
Maybe he could run a book.
I’m not in to all this but I hope PBP get at least one seat. I can’t see much of a UUP backlash TBH.
DUP 34
SF 29
SDLP 16
UUP 16
Alliance 8
TUV 1
Green 1
PBP 1
Ind 2
‘The Word’,
As you are noting a history on a predictions thread, I’ll note:
Love is the answer
Your SDLP prediction may be a tad imbalanced and irrational?
DUP 33
SF 27
UUP 18
SDLP 18
ALL 8
TUV 1
GREEN 1
IND 2 (Purvis & McFarland)
Predicting that every one of the SDLP candidates will be elected? What’s wrong with that Mark?! Be a lover not a hater man.
Mark
At this stage fishing is permitted if you have a question.
I could refer you to the 1986 revelation that is the only constant that accurately defined “history” since. In other words, we’re ready now.
“I am completely humbled by the experience of meeting Our Lady yet again, an experience I write about below. I understand that every sentence is meaningful in this cosmic interaction. The last time we met was on Apparition Hill in Medjugorje in August 2009 where a lady with six children, the number of child visionaries involved in the first encounter with Our Lady in June 1981, led me up and down the hill, meaning that she was with me during my whole journey through life.
“I submit two testimonies of the encounter during the royal wedding last Friday, the first on the night of the encounter which proved too soon to completely evaluate the meaning, and the second completed on the night after the encounter to clarify the meaning of the message, a very comprehensive message. The second testimony comes first.”
DUP 34
SF 27
SDLP 17
UUP 16
AP 8
TUV 2 (NA + EL)
Greens 1
PBP 1 (Foyle)
Purvis 1
McFarland 1
DUP 33
SF 27
UUP 22
SDLP 15
AP 7
TUV 1 (Allister)
IND 3 (Purvis, McClarty & McFarland)
DUP – 32
Sinn Féin – 28
UUP – 16
SDLP – 18
Alliance – 8
TUV – 3
McClarty
Purvis
McFarland
The Word,
Apologies. Lets keep it on politics. The reasons behind your predictions are yours alone and need no further explanation.
Good luck to you and yours tomorrow.
DUP 34
UUP 16
TUV 2
Ind (unionist) 2 Purvis and McFarland
Total 54 Unionists
SF 28
SDLP 17
Total 45 Nationalist
All 7
Greens 1
Ind 1 (McCann)
Total 9 Others
DUP 33
SF 33
UUP 15
SDLP 13
ALLIIA 08
TUV 02
PBP 01
PURVIS 01
McFARLAND 01
PUP 01
EB: 3 DUP 1 All 1 UUP 1 Ind (Purvis)
WB: 5 SF 1 SDLP
NB: 2 SF 2 DUP 1SDLP 1 UUP
SB: 2 SDLP 1 SF 1 All 1 DUP 1 UUP
EA: 3 DUP 1 UUP 1 All 1 SDLP
NA: 3 DUP 1 UUP 1 SF 1 TUV
SA: 2 DUP 2 UUP 1 All 1 SF
ND: 2 DUP 1 UUP 1 All 1 Green 1 Ind (McFarland)
SD: 2 SDLP 2 SF 1 DUP 1 UUP
FST: 2 SF 2 UUP 1 DUP 1 SDLP
Foyle: 2 SDLP 2 SF 1 DUP 1 PBP
LV: 3 DUP 1 UUP 1 TUV 1 All
ED: 2 DUP 1 UUP 1 SDLP 1 SF 1 Ind (McClarty)
MU: 3 SF 1 SDLP 1 DUP 1 UUP
N&A: 3 SF 1 SDLP 1 DUP 1 UUP
Sford: 2 DUP 2 UUP 1 All 1 SDLP
WT: 4SF 1 DUP 1 UUP
UB: 2 DUP 2SF 1 UUP 1 SDLP
31 DUP 29 SF 19 UUP 15 SDLP 7 All 1 Green 2 TUV 1 PBP 3 Ind U
Felt the login process was cumbersome Slugger. Your site is excellent so you need to make it accessible. Password lO46A9atvroger is hard to remember. Then you offer to allow my password I’ve had since 1999. Just allow passwords and it will not take 30 minutes to get involved in your election predictions. By the way I got 20 Fianna Fail TD’s in my last prediction. Like some jockey said it was better than sexual intercourse. Not because I got it right cos I’m always right. But because those who have destroyed Ireland as an economic and political entity were virtually destroyed themselves. The head of the snake was cut off by the Irish electorate, democracy.
Would love to join in but I’m just too tired – feel like I’ve failed Slugger in some way. There’s 84 assembly seats right?:)
Tony,
That Strategem prediction shit isn’t really Slugger, that’s Strategem trying to get a mutual teat sucking relationship with Mick going yet again
Your prediction openly posted above has more value than anything hidden/controlled on a lobbyist company website -imnsho
Surprise, surprise!
Sectarianism to win again.
So depressing.
Wake me up in 2021
Since it’s just for fun – I’m going to plump for a good day for Alliance and TUV (and thus a shakey one for the DUP and not much return for Ind Unionists). SF to gain a couple, SDLP to only lose out to McCann.
31 DUP
31 SF
17 UUP
15 SDLP
9 All
3 TUV
1 Green
1 PBP
32 DUP
25 SINN FÉIN
18 UUP
18 SDLP
7 APNI
1 GREEN
1 TUV
1 INDEPENDENT (MCFARLAND)
Sorry my bad … 23 SDLP
DUP 31
SF 31
SDLP 18
UUP 14
APNI 10
TUV 2
Ind 1
GP 1
Not likely tho
Gerry Moriarty:
DUP 34; UUP 17; Sinn Féin 28; SDLP 17; Alliance 8; Traditional Unionist Voice 1; Greens 1; Independents 2.
Mine are pretty close, but with DUP at 36, 2 independents (Jim and Dawn Purvis).
I’m suggesting a gain in East Antrim to Sinn Fein (1 down in LV), 2 to UUs (Strangford and West Tyrone); Alliance to gain one in North Down.
DUP down one in Strangford but up one in North Down.
That said, there’s also something for SF in Upper Bann to play for, and West Tyrone.
And we have to see what damage TUV can do the DUP and what bonus they deliver Tom Elliot for his tactical shift to the right.
Can’t remember how I got SDLP to 17…
Sitcking with what they’ve got would do some insiders…
dup 34
sf 29
sdlp 18
uup 15
alliance 8
gp 1
tuv 1
emc 1
ind u 1
Mark – are you going to collate? ….just u should ask for in consistent format….
Expect a surprise result involving the Independent candidates in North Down. Remember you read it here first! It will throw a lot of the forecasts made so far.
DUP – 31
SF – 27
SDLP – 18
UUP – 16
APNI – 11
TUV – 2
GREEN – 1
PBP – 1
Indp – McFarlane & Purvis
I’ve been reading and watching for a while and this is my first comment!
Previous post should read
DUP – 30 not 31
SF – 27
SDLP – 17
UUP – 16
APNI – 11
TUV – 2
GREEN – 1
PBP – 1
Indp – McFarlane & Purvis
Am I the only one who can see DUP gains in Lagan Valley, North Down, South Antrim and N/S/W Belfast? I don’t expect all of these, but at least 3/6 with possible losses in East Belfast, Strangford and East Londonderry for DUP to remain stable?
Ryan,
I see N Down. But do the figures back you up on LV, SA and SB? NB is a possibility, it just means taking out Fred. The Alliance are actively gunning for that, but the number gaps were big last time.
Don’t hear anyone in the DUP talking up WB.
Predictions closed in the assembly2011.co.uk competition and the final community predictions can be seen on the site now.
With nearly 25,000 predictions I’m hoping the predictions will bear a lot of similarity to the actual outcome!