Election day open thread #ge11
The big day is here. Mick’s in Cavan at the moment (more on that soon) and will be in Roscommon & Kilkenny later – go along if you can.
Update: We’ve added a ‘CoverItLive’ window in this post (thanks Mark McG!) – it’ll probably be fairly quiet until tomorrow but worth checking back to see if you’re not a regular Twitter user:
John has just posted on his expectations and is asking you to put your cards on the table about what you think for today’s result.
So what can we expect? PoliticalReform.ie has been filleting recent polls and has detailed projections (at seat-level) based upon them (read the whole thing here).
Firstly, based on the Millward Brown Lansdowne opinion poll, published in the 23rd February edition of The Irish Independent – seat projections:
Fianna Fail 17, Fine Gael 78, Labour 37, Green Party 0, Sinn Fein 14, Others 20
… and secondly, on the Red C poll for Paddy Power (23rd February)
Fianna Fail 21, Fine Gael 80, Labour 34, Green Party 0, Sinn Fein 13, Others 18
Barry Orr from Betfairs has …er… his boss’s money on…
Fianna Fail 25, Fine Gael 73, Labour 36, Green Party 1 Sinn Fein 13, Others 17
… and you can see their markets here.
Early on during the campaign, around 40 of Slugger’s readers collectively predicted…
Fianna Fail 36, Fine Gael 64, Labour 36, Sinn Fein 13, Others – total – 18
Let me know if there are any good polling/projection information anywhere else in the comments below, and if you’re qualified to vote and haven’t made your mind up, the Votomatic site might help there. I’ve been tracking Betfair this time, but I’d be interested to see what the other bookies have to say.
So, have another go yourself. If you’re made a prediction already have another one using the form below. Today’s entries won’t qualify for the £125 Betfair credit, but it’d be interesting to see who gets closest – Slugger today, Slugger pre-Feb 10th, Betfair or the pollsters.
Election day prediction competition
Only a bit of fun this time – and remember, if your predicted seat distribution doesn’t add up to 165, it will be automatically disqualified, so work it out with a scratchpad first. By all means, feel free to copy your prediction into the comments box below as well!
Topic: Politics, Society and Culture
Region: Ireland
Paddy Power’s 10/1 FG and others – the others could of course include the FF rump . FG might find it easier to ‘deal’ with the rump than with Labour . The ‘independents ‘ may all be too independent to ‘corral’ into a stable coalition.
I see that Shane Ross’s Wikipedia entry has already been updated to include his election to the Dáil today. Is this some sort of record?
@Rory, not even close or unusual in any way. Wikipedia elections articles are usually updated within minutes of the result being declared and any new TDs elected today will have new articles created by tomorrow evening at the latest.
I’ve an interest in Sligo/N Leitrim, a 3 seater. Anyone want to call this based on the following tallies?
FG Perry 8611 (19.7%)
FG McLoughlin 7559 (17.3%)
SF Colreavy 5794 (13.2%)
FF Scanlon 5056 (11.5%)
FF MacSharry M 4506 (10.3%)
LAB O’Keeffe 4448 (10.1%)
IND Clarke 2404 (5.5%)
IND Bree 2210 (5%)
IND Cawley 1077 (2.4%)
IND Love 762 (1.7%)
IND McSharry G 741 (1.6%)
GP Gogan 416 (0%)
IND Cahill 103 (0%)
I’ve an interest in Sligo/N Leitrim, a 3 seater. Anyone want to call this based on the following tallies?
How much?
[...] it was these entrants that we offered the prize to. Later on, a few days before the actual poll, I wrote a post here with an outline of the late polling and bookies predictions and asked you for a second stab at it (without the offer of the prize though). Unsurprisingly, the [...]