Gerry Adams jumped out of the frying pan of Morning Ireland into the fire at LM/FM. Adams’ follow-up performance on the local Louth/Meath station is so noteworthy that Fianna Fáil have actually issued it as a press release. Have a listen.
Northern Ireland’s peace process has been promoted as an international success story. The Republic’s Department of Foreign Affairs has its Conflict Resolution Unit, which aims to disseminate the ‘lessons’ of the Northern Ireland peace process. And some of the prominent players in our peace process have travelled abroad to other troubled spots to share their [...] read our review »
Which reminds me…. Platform for Change’s driving force Robin Wilson has produced a corrective to the notion that the lessons of the NI conflict are easily exportable. Like myself, Robin is associated with the Constitution Unit. He introduced his new book in a CU blog which I here reproduce. The water crisis in Northern Ireland [...] read our review »
@Neil
Whereas it seems Ireland is expected to go through immediate and protracted pain
It’s difficult to project a sense of scale in text. But the expectation would be of much smaller annual contractions and debt suffocation for the next 5 or 10 or even 20 or more years versus a much steeper and painful correction now followed by a return to growth from low debt levels.
There is a choice to be made, especially if negotiation efforts fail about whether it is better to take the pain now (like the Asian countries did in the late 1990′s) or to lumber onwards like Japan has since the late 1980′s.
Anyone saying with certainty the bailout is going to lead to a bright future is being dishonest. Anyone saying with certainty that you can unilaterally default on state guaranteed debt *and* soften the blows of the fiscal adjustment is also being dishonest.
Sounded better than Mackers at the debate in Queens last month. Even the dissies thought he was terrible.
Neil my issue is more to do with the ROI’s inter-connecting ties with the EMU. Greece looked at defaulting and going back to the Drachma – the effect of this would be massive deflation of currency whilst debts would remain at ‘old’ Euro levels.
Calculations suggested an overall increase of 40% on cost of debt.
I hope the ROI doesn’t default as the consequences economically with be massive for it and like all decent Unionists in Northern Ireland I take no pleasure in saying that.
Provide a quote from that interview where Adams hasn’t been proven, in hindsight, to be 100% correct.
You may have missed the 2007 wee four debate – are we meant to believe that in addition to posturing as economically savvy, Adams also prophesying?
Sure there are plenty of politicians who have not mastered every detail of every brief. They usually have people to do the hard stuff. The difference with Adams is that he puts himself forward as the Shinners oracle on matters clearly beyond his intelligence – things like, what is the current rate of VAT in the Republic.
I wouldn’t put it past him to be doing the feckless imbecile on purpose – he’s probably calculated it’s a vote winning strategy.
Carpetbagger
1.A Northerner who went to the South after the Civil War for political or financial advantage.
2.An outsider, especially a politician, who presumptuously seeks a position or success in a new locality…..
Talking about carpetbaggers, his supporters and the people of West Belfast should be asking why is he suddenly jumping ship to move to what is likely a safe seat in the South?
Going down there because the economy is in a bad state while abandoning the most deprived area in the North is a ludicrous excuse for carpetbagging.
It conjures up a picture of Del Boy and Rodney’s Batman and Robin rushing to the rescue.
Yes, Dixie.
On the doorstep: Dia duit. I’m Gerry Adams. I’ve come down from Belfast to solve Ireland’s economic problems. Can I count on your vote?
Here is a good article on similarities and differences between Ireland and Iceland, and what happened in Iceland after the default.
http://www.economist.com/node/17732935?story_id=17732935
For what it’s worth Neil and whomever else, I am not anti-SF. I was hoping they would do well if for nothing else than to shake up the Dail entirely.
But regardless of one’s view this interview was ghastly. No one is suggesting Gerry should be an expert economist…but it sounds like he didn’t know the difference between the deficit and the debt, let alone have a basic understanding as what Ireland would face if they followed SF’s plan. On top of that he tried to turn it around on the journalist and pretend that it was he, not him, who had no idea what he was talking about. (I couldn’t tell if Adams really thought he had things right or if he was doing his best to bluff his way through the interview).
That may work with voters who don’t know the first thing about the Irish economic crisis other than social services will be slashed but to any half educated observer it is unsettling of a leading politician to be so unversed, ignorant, and out of touch on the most pressing issue this country has faced in decades.
All the same, however, the majority of voters will never visit a political parties website or watch more than a few minutes of politicians debate each other or do interviews….so it won’t matter all that much. In times of hardship, populist cries (however illogical or rational) sound appealing to many ears.
Seems Sinn Féin have got a high profile endorsement:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jqjGV7xN2Hs
@Ulick
Adams actually sounded McWilliams on occasion. The only problem with the argument being propounded is that it is being presented as and easy and painless alternative. I.e. we can sort the banks out by forcing the bond holders to take the losses (without surrendering an equity stake in the banks – or a claim on the assets of the banks, or retaliation from Europe) and we can at the same time reduce the scale of the annual austerity measures (again without Europeans support when the markets are charging us almost double the EFSF/IMF interest rate – prior to any default).
If SF were totally honest about the implications of the risks / uncertainties associated with their policies they’d be in a very strong position economically.
I don’t want my taxes to repay money leant to Fingers and Seanie Fitz. The German, British, French, Belgian & Dutch banks leant it to them, they can get it back of them, not from taxing yours, mine and our children’s future incomes..
Further to the above.
Gerry Adams was asked where the other €14bn to make up the short fall in spending after taxes and the SF tax rises had been taken into account would come from. He repeatedly avoid answering it. That might work well in elections to nothing in particular in the politically dysfunctional north, but it really is insulting to voters here, where he presumably hopes to take executive office and make decisions crucial importance to all our futures. We need to hear answers to these questions when they are asked..
How hard would it have been to come clean and say something like by
‘separating private and public debt we’d hope to be able to return to the bond market at a reasonable rate for government borrowing. But we realise this may not be possible. We don’t want to saddle future generations with the debts of the Seanie Fitz, Fingers and the Golden Circle. This will lead to the slow strangulation of the Irish economy and a long goodbye to another generation of our young. We reject the socialisation of private losses. We want to keep total Irish soveriegn debt low, and we’ll guarantee that we will not default on loans provided in good faith to Ireland to fund the construction of our hospitals, schools and motorways will not be defaulted on. This may take some time, so in the meantime we may, unfortunately have to implement some very harsh austerity measures. We will do our best to protect workers, families and businesses through this period. But we will get Ireland back to growth quickly and we will ensure that there are jobs and a future for our young and that today’s young families do not languish in debt servitude’
Also related to the issue of whether Irish taxpayers should pay for European banking loses. John Bruton would appear to think not -
http://intercontinentalnetwork.blogspot.com/2011/01/letter-to-president-barroso-of-european.html
FG & Lab in talks with third parties to negotiate debt restructuring.
oth Fine Gael and Labour are believed to be looking at bringing in a third party to help restructure the country’s debt burden. According to a source very close to the situation, both parties are believed to be looking at the role Felix Rohatyn played in helping the city of New York restructure its debts when it faced bankruptcy in the 1970s.
The restructuring would involve forcing haircuts on bondholders and introducing a debt liability management exercise whereby the terms of existing bonds are rolled out to much longer periods. Contact has been made with Rohatyn and a delegation is expected to fly out to New York over the next few weeks to see how the restructuring process that happened in New York can be applied to Ireland, says the source.
http://www.businessandfinance.ie/news/oppositionconsidersdebtrestructuring
Adams position regards default is essentially sound .He is saying our weakness is our strength. European banks are exposed to “Irish ” bank crisis to the tune of 800 billion.
The deal the Irish team agreed to is complete nonsense and must be renegotiated
The Germans are able to access funds on the bond market a lot cheaper than the 6-7 % Ireland has to pay because Ireland is perceived to be a poor credit risk. If Ireland and the other countries in crisis were able to source there funds at the same rate as the Germans and French they (the Irish etc) would not be in “a financial crisis”. This would of course mean the GERMANS WOULD HAVE TO PAY MORE FOR THERE MONEY , BUT NOT ANY WHERE NEAR WHAT THE IRISH ARE PAYING NOW.
The Germans argue that they should not have to pay for Ireland/ Greece / etc being poor financial managers , yet they were instrumental in causing the crisis by funding Irish banks and companies during the mad years ( check German bank exposure to Irish debt} they made a lot of money at the time by funding the boom times.
They shared the gain so they should share the pain
The reason for the Irish bail out was a pan Euro effort to stabilize the markets. Ireland was the fall guy for Europe.
.
obeachain -
If Ireland and the other countries in crisis were able to source there funds at the same rate as the Germans and French they (the Irish etc) would not be in “a financial crisis”. This would of course mean the GERMANS WOULD HAVE TO PAY MORE FOR THERE MONEY , BUT NOT ANY WHERE NEAR WHAT THE IRISH ARE PAYING NOW.
You are talking about Eurobonds here right?
Unilateral default won’t bring that situation about. The yield on Irish government bonds would likely rise in the aftermath of a default because the market would reasonably assume that having defaulted on debt it once guaranteed they’d be now more likely to default on core sovereign debt. The rise in the yield could create a self-fulfilling prophecy – with the government unable to borrow to fund the deficit or roll over existing debt. No bondholder will want to get caught on the wrong side of that trade.
We can’t just simply wish that people with money will lend to us at the same rate as the Germans. It is only possible to achieve that with the explicit backing of the German government (by issuing joint debt). That can only come about through negotiation. Unilateral action will kill off the possibility of that happening…
[...] course you do… Tags: Crown Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead, Economy, EU, Europe, Gerry Adams, [...]