“Economic crises, however severe, will come and go…”
In The Guardian, Henry McDonald points out that the Economy, not unity, is Irish priority
There is a great unspoken paradox about the current politico-fiscal crisis gripping the Republic of Ireland. The Irish people’s anger and disillusionment may have thrown a lifeline to Sinn Féin and rescued the party from total irrelevance in the Republic but its united Ireland project is more unrealisable than ever.
Of course, as the Sinn Féin president, Gerry Adams, was telling us, and The Guardian, last July
The single most important issue facing the people of Ireland and Britain is the achievement of Irish unity and the construction of a new relationship between Ireland and Britain based on equality. Economic crises, however severe, will come and go. Governments will come and go, but for more centuries than any of us care to contemplate Britain’s involvement in Ireland has been the source of conflict; partition, discord and division; and great hurt between the people of these islands. [added emphasis]
Until, that is, his priorities changed
…the Sinn Féin president was keen to paint the move as his duty “in this time of crisis in our country“. Or, as Martin McGuinness would have us believe, “to play a central role in the battle for Ireland’s economic recovery”.
And Henry McDonald also has some words of caution for more delusional excitable commentators
Some commentators on both sides of the Irish Sea have been hyperventilating over Sinn Féin’s fortunes and the possibility that the party could soon be sitting in power on both sides of the border.
Their reductionist thinking concludes that we could, within the next few months, have Martin McGuinness as deputy first minister in Belfast and Adams as a minister is some new “rainbow coalition” in Dublin. No doubt the party would seek to portray such a benign scenario as the first phase in the drive for Irish unity, casting their members as the only people serious about driving forward political and economic fusion on the island.
Even if you set aside the fact that the main opposition party, Fine Gael, will not take Sinn Féin into an alternative government coalition, the above theory is entirely fanciful. And even if you ignore the historic opposition of unionists to a United Ireland, the idea that the north and the south are on an inevitable path towards unity is counterfactual.
Indeed. As Mick noted earlier last month
But in the absence of conflict and death from Northern Ireland the south has simply presumed all is well and settled and has moved on to its own, more immediate preoccupations. Even the leadership of the largest “Republican” party on the island [has] recast the relationship between the two parts of the island in striking terms.
Brian Cowen saying earlier this year what I suspect Margaret Ritchie meant to say on The Politics Show this week:
“The genius of all of these agreements is that we are all on a common journey together where we have not decided on the destination. The problem with our ideologies in the past was that we had this idea about where we were going but we had no idea how anyone was going to come with us on the journey.
“We have now all decided: let’s go on a journey and forget about the destination – the destination isn’t really important in that respect. We can all work for what it is we would like ideally to see, but this is not something that can be forced or imposed upon people on either side of the island.”
And he was only following the lead of the boul Bertie before him:
“That can only happen in the long term future. How long that will be I don’t know. If it is done by any means of coercion, or divisiveness, or threats, it will never happen. We’ll stay at a very peaceful Ireland and I think time will be the healer providing people, in a dedicated way, work for the better good of everyone on the island. If it doesn’t prove possible, then it stays the way it is under the Good Friday Agreement, and people will just have to be tolerant of that if it’s not possible to bring it any further.”
Topic: Politics, Society and Culture
Region: Ireland, Northern Ireland, UK
George, politics.ie just published
“#FF 13pc, FG 32pc, Lab 24pc, SF 16pc, Grns 3, Inds 11. Biffo at 8 per cent, Gilmore 42″
so what relevance has a blog quoting an ex-leader and soon to be ex-leader of the 4th largest party.
also remember whats on the CVs of the leaders of the Labour Party, it appears the Stickies and Provos have 40% of the polls.
Question is, does Slugger retreat further into its bubble
Opinion polls should always be taken with a large pinch of salt.
So much depends on the question being asked. I have no doubt that a poll asking the question “Do you support the reunification of Ireland” would get close to a 50% yes in N.I. and likely a much higher yes reponse in Ireland. But it’s really rather vague. Someone above suggested asking “Would you be willing to pay hgiher taxes…”. Again, rather meaningless. How much higher, 5% 30%?
There is no prospect of reunification within a generation. Get on with life, hard though it might be for the next few years. We have more things to fret about.
james
Don’t be misled by the context in which Mick placed those quotes. Or by fluctuating opinion polls.
It’s what’s being described that is important.
That’s the reality of the situation.
Those figures have been confirmed on Matt Cooper.
SF on 16% with FF now down to 13%.
FF 13
FG 32 Lab 24
SF 16
Grn 3
Ind 11
On those figures we are approaching a Labour/Sinn Féin government.
It’s getting more interesting by the day.
Pete,
Cowen was talking about his own constituency and not all of us on this island, as he claims.
The true reality of the situation is that there are countless people in Ireland, both British loyalist and Irish republican, for whom the direction and destination of the “journey” are still of tantamount importance.
George
Look again at what Cowen said
And, as Ahern said before him,
Pete,
there is a world of difference between forgetting about where you want to go and not being able to get to where you want to go in the time you want to get there.
It is trite of Cowen to say that “we have now all decided: let’s go on a journey and forget about the destination – the destination isn’t really important”.
As for Ahern, that is more in the realm of Realpolitik but doesn’t change the reality that an awful lot of people from both “sides” are working feverishly to move beyond the holding operation that was and is the GFA.
One thing is certain: we will not go beyond the GFA if “everyone” simply accepts it’s not possible to go further.
“they’ve invented a man-made religion”
WH, that comment, as well as the reference to marching, applies to Unionists, Nationalists and others so why focus on a particular group? It also applies to the rest of these islands.
JoeC
A serious question. You mentioned reunification. Was Ireland ever a free united country? It is my understanding that before the english took over the country was governed/ ruled by competing kings or warlords?
No, Sammy. It was a united country once Ulster was finally defeated but not free, of course. When I talk of reunification it is in that context, prior to partition.
It is an ill wind which blows nobody any good. The polls cited suggest that Sinn Féin are set to become a major force in the politics of the Irish Republic. As the next election is such a proximate event, it seems scarcely worth arguing this point, we might as well just wait and see.
The Southern electorate would of course be interested primarily in a party that offers a philosophy remote from the unbridled Bankerism which has got it into the current mess. But of course with SF, the national issue is also included in the package.
Currently unemployment in the Irish Republic stands at well over 400,000. How many of these have roots in the 6 Counties? If only 10%, persuading them to return home, possibly with the Republic’s dole as a wage, would have a very favourable effect on the balance of power in that area.
One commentator mentioned the precipitous fall in the number of Protestants in the Free State after independence. Those who investigated the fall found that a lot of those who left were actually state employees with no roots in Ireland at all, who just retired back to England. It should be observed that the Unionist presence in Ireland is in the nature of a plantation. If not maintained by special and artificial means, it will revert to seed. Ever since Fair Employment procedures came into force, the Unionist percentage of the vote has been in decline.
“Don’t be misled by the context in which Mick placed those quotes. Or by fluctuating opinion polls.”
Firstly Pete, yes polls fluctuate, but any anorak would see that SF is picking up FF voters and even some Labour, the Irish budget hasn’t even been released yet!!! on politics.ie someone said FF would look back fondly when they use to get 13% in polls, so yes they fluctuate but its beginning to look as if thats everyone elses bad luck and not SF’s
In keeping with that comment, my point regarding the quotes was purely on where they had come from, further evidence of Micks and Sluggers detachment from politics, who in there right mind would quote either Brian or Bertie in todays world, they are non-people Bertie has disappeared and people are trying to work out when Cowen will go, in short, they and whatever they’ve said in the past means nothing to 90% of the people of Ireland (your soooooooo last decade)
And Sammy
“Was Ireland ever a free united country?”
Yes it was very briefly, as part of the implementation of the treaty
White Horse: Explain to me what the marching is all about and tell me where it happens in Britain.
Clearly, marching not being British, it must be one way that some unionists express their Irishness. Maybe some of your flavour of assimilation is going on after all? Republicans march as well.
By the way, have you considered that assimilation and integration of the two communities would happen a bit faster with integrated education? Don’t I also remember you being hostile to the notion when it comes up on education topics?
White Horse: Their anxiety is about their land and how they acquired it,
I don’t have any land, which must be why I don’t march and rarely get all flustered.
Their anxiety is about their land and how they acquired it
Didn’t they get it from their fathers?
Maybe we need to disuss this with Australian, USA , Canadian aborigines etc. Wait a minute, didn’t most of those “steal” it from others? Brits out. Bah.
Nevin
How you deflect attention away from the reality that fear the truth.
Reader
There is nothing in the world that compares to this display of anxiety.
Yes, I like Catholic education because there is a sense of Christ and Christianity in the universalism and the social conscience so despised in certain quarters. The unionist imperial imperative so insisted upon by some politicians and some educators would seek to equate Christian values with imperial values so as to render Christ neutral in the battle between good and evil.
Joe
We’re dealing with this expression of anxiety while you try to distract.
WH: ‘I’m not suggesting that the British turf the unionists out of the UK. I’m suggesting that they free them from their ongoing obsessive anxiety by explaining to them that the Plantation was an ethical and moral evil.’
Any more evil than say what went on more recently in the USA and Australia with the natives being disposessed and indeed virtually eradicated?
‘Justifying that evil by taking to the roads only accentuates the anxiety.’
WH you do appear to have a highly stereotyped view of Unionism. The Protestant / Unionist population of NI is approx 850k — OO membership is approx 30k — that’s about 3.5%. Even assuming that twice that number turn out regularly to watch / support parades, that still leaves 90% of the Prod population who don’t give a monkeys about the OO.
I personally couldn’t care less if the OO wrapped up tomorrow — marching isn’t most Unionists reason for wishing to remain in the UK.
‘Their anxiety is about their land and how they acquired it, and the union is used to merely postpone the day on which they confront themselves.’
I acquired ‘my land’ via a mortgage from the Halifax WH. My great grandparents sailed from Liverpool in the 1880s and bought a small farm near Omagh, which is (for what little it’s worth) still in the family. Should we feel anxious about this? Or does it not fit into your neat little stereotype?
Re your earlier comment, all religions are man-made. I personally don’t have time for any, but your ‘sense of Christ & Christianity’ was particularly lacking in a church which at all levels busied itself covering up a morass of global child abuse.
WH, you make it too easy. I’ve simply described reality, some of it based on my own experience. Our numerous Christian denominations differ religiously mainly in the small print. You’ll find expressions of social conscience amongst all of them as well as lesser traits.
GerrylvsCastro
3,000 parades a year. For what?
It seems that some unionists like to distance themselves from the marchers when the circumstances suit. However it remains an integral part of the unionist mindset and an expression of Plantation anxiety. No reasonable unionist could therefore want to sustain it. Indeed they might want to address it rather than suggesting that it is irrelevant.
They’ll be 15,000 Apprentices walking into Derry this weekend and it is scarcely an irrelevancy for such a demonstration of pseudo-religious anxiety to foist itself on a civilian population. One day that will provoke a response and that is the real danger of this “illness”. I liken it to the notion that one day nuclear weapons will be used because that has been the history of weaponry.
The abuse point is just a cheap shot.
Nevin
I think I make you nervous when all is said and done.
WH — If all that annoys you about Unionism is parades, 99.9% of which you won’t see or hear, then I don’t think you’ve much to worry about. Even GA only has a problem with a handful of contentious parades — what makes you so fearful of them?
If people want to parade to commemerate 1690, 1916, the hunger strikes, internment, the first X-Factor, they have a right to do so within the constraints of parade legislation.
You ignored my point that 90%+ of Unionists have no interest in parades, yet they’re still very much Unionists.
‘The abuse point is just a cheap shot.’
Of course WH — pointing out a supposedly Christ-like operation deliberately covering up thousands of cases of child rape over decades if not centuries, betraying and branding as liars the victims of it’s own staff and expecting to carry on much as before even when completely exposed — that would be a cheap shot right enough.
The statements by Cowan and Ahern are simply realpolik. They amount ot “We can’t force the Norh” and “Things would change without a majority”. This has been true for the past 30 years.
However, SF minsters on both sides of the border would be significant, in its own way. And they are pefectly capable of using the power to move things in the direction they prefer. Perhaps only small things for the moment, ut those can mater in the long run. If you state otherwise, you are stating that politics is inefective,.
And a thriving Republic is a prerequisite for unity. Perhaps Gerry has learned that. In any case, it si perfectly posisble for one to be the tool for the other, larger goal.
SF are unlikely to be in the next Irish Governemnt. The mere prospect causing a Unionist freak out “It doesn’t matter! It doesn’t matter! La la la” is amusing though.
The principle of consent is there whether or not SF is sitting in power North and South. The reality is that Republican\Nationalists need to convince a signifigant % of natural Unionists that they would be better off in a UI; can’t see that happening any time soon.
Why should I be nervous of your ‘reality’, WH? I’ve had many years experience of the real thing including positive expressions of the social conscience of folks of diverse faiths and no faith at all. That’s my idea of a common journey and it’s been great crack.
“The genius of all of these agreements .. this is not something that can be forced or imposed upon people on either side of the island”
The reality of the agreements is not limited to the island of Ireland, no matter how much an Irish political leader chooses to indulge in cherry-picking. The continuing presence of the opposing constitutional aspirations is a clear indication that we are not on a common journey. That message has been rammed home by the SDLP and SF as they’ve highlighted their political priorities in advance of elections next year. It’s also a message being delivered more brutally by militant Nationalists.
The PSNI continues to be downsized despite Patten recommendations and it’s worth remembering that the RUC was also downsized following the ’56-”62 campaign to the point where it couldn’t cope with civic confrontation.
GerrylvsCastro
The parades are an expression of imperial suppression religionised to reveal an underlying anxiety. The parades serve to deepen the anxiety each year by virtue of the process of giving offence to Catholics and garnering a response that serves the anxiety and deepens it.
The republicans have embarked on a similar path to express anger which is at the early stages of being religonised and that is why they don’t express sufficient opposition to this marching business.
What you have is a religionised militarism that serves a view that the balance of power is maintained by their actions.
As any observer of international militarism knows the risk to peace comes not only in the existence of armies of annihilation but also in the very logic itself.
Peace sustains peace. It needs no army.
90% of unionists may not march but as a representative sample does my opinion holds – that this anxiety holds them prisoner.
WH, this OO and AOH stuff as an expression of religionised international militarism is a new one on me. When it comes to spectacle they pale in comparison to Semana Santa. Your analysis would suggest there must be massive repressed anxiety in the Spanish parades – but I don’t buy it.
Nevin
I would not rule out anxiety in any religious practice, but you are mistaking the nature of the anxiety to which I refer here.
The anxiety is based not on the joys of the New Testament message as in Spain but in the “us” and “them” morality of the Old Testament that guides the value system of the marchers here. Unionists march due to Nation/Imperial conflict that throws up some class bias in favour of the more powerful (against the interests of some unionists) and republicans march similarly for Nation/Anti-imperial with some class bias in favour of the working class (against the interests of the underclass and middleclass among them.
The anxiety that presents itself is entirely dependent on there being competing communal interests, is entirely self- serving and self-accentuating because of the division that sustains it. Conflict sustains it and is its purpose.
That’s why the unionists have managed to avoid large scale assimilation and this is a good reason for nipping it in the bud before we arrive at a society that is simply an absurd expression of two imperial conflicts competing to define the moral code of conflict.
Guys. Unionist or republican, you both have one very important thing in common. You care about the north/northern Ireland/6 counties/ulster.
Because to be honest, The rest of Britain has thrown too much time and money at it, the republic has been embaressed by it and most young people in the north are just bored of all this sectarianism. Don’t get me wrong, I’m a sf supporter and I love Ireland (especially the north) but it just makes me angry to see these people, who loyalist or republican, at each others throats when they should be trying to work together to sort out the north. And anyway, in the rush to say how amazing Britain or Ireland is poor old ulster/6 counties actually gets forgotten.
I’m all for a united Ireland but don’t forget the north is the best bit so stop fighting coz it does my head in and I’m sure it dies everyone else. Ps just so you know, the only marching that goes on in England, and I should know I’m English, is the brownie/scouts parade.
Well, in the words of George Orwell: “the Irish are not at peace unless they are at war”