‘The 2010 Group.’
Another meeting of disenchanted members of the Ulster Unionist Party takes place this week-end.
‘The 2010 Group’ has already drafted the broad parameters of a constitution embracing both political and economic principles.
What is emerging poses a dilemma for Tom Elliott’s leadership. He has been at pains to promote the notion of internal party discipline. The members identified with the ‘The 2010 Group’ have deliberately chosen to defy his leadership.
It is difficult at this stage to evaluate the true impact of this political schism in the Ulster Unionist Party.
The fall out from the secret Hatfield talks revealed by this writer continues to be impacting in the Ulster Unionist party.
The tone being struck by the ‘The 2010 Group’ is at variance with the aspiration of those seeking Unionist unity with the DUP.
Eamonn Mallie
Eamonn Mallie
no names nothing if they exist then come out and tell us all.its all a load of nonesense and mischeif making.no such group exists
wiki.answers.com/Q/How_many_people_constitute_a_group – Cached
great post
Eamonn Mallie, WTF are you. You have left us all high and dry wondering how this second secret 2010 Group meeting that was supposed too happen this weekend.
I shall be sitting up all night in anticipation…..
BTW I hadnt logged on when submitting a couple of comments, meaning they needed cleared before appearing online, they are yet to appear, does Eamonn actually check any of them?
Alas I have been on a longish weekend break and missed Mr Mallies latest exclusive
“Difficult to analyse the impact” (E Mallie)
I don’t think so. It looks surprisingly straight forward with less than six months to go to an election. Elliott won a fairly comfortable victory in the leadership which unfortunately showed up demographic and fundamental divisions within the party.
Elliotts strength lay west of the Bann in Tyrone, Frmanagh and Derry where unfortunately their broader electoral strength is very weak (FST, Mid Ulster, East Derry and the probability of a seat in West Tyrone).
But seemingly 99% of the UUP council memnbers are from Fermanagh and they are all over 80 years old so the losing camp in the recent leadership are confined to permanent opposition. Unsurprisingly Elliotts first act was to call for Party unity……ie support him and his faction. And he is also determined to plug the leaks to journalists. And seemingly intent on clearing out people like McAuley (East Derry) and of course Bradshaw in South Belfast.
So the “liberals” have to act. Whatever the strength of the UUP in the next Assembly, possibly around the same or less than currently, the liberal East of the Bann will play a key part.
As the party has been “warned” about disciplinary action about leaks, the “2010 Group” have been remarkably careless in giving lists of members and seeking publicity thru a journalist. Clearly a deliberate candidate. Clearly they are saying that they want to be detected.
Handing a journo a list of names knowing he will publish the existence of the list but not the actual names (a half story not a story in my view) is a dubious practice (in my humble opinion).
How can Elliott react? Well of course it depends on who they are. But if they were to be expelled from the UUP then clearly it would damage the UUP in the east. Divided parties take a hit. And that might be bad news for Fred Cobain in North Belfast and John MacCallister in South Down. Yet a person like say MacCallister might calculate that he would hold the seat with or without the UUP brand. But the UUP would lose it without him as standard bearer.
So its Elliott who has the dilemma. He needs the “liberals” more than they need him. If they get thrown out of the party (or engineer their own expulsion) four or five will be elected (if necessarily thry Alliance surplus (South Belfast) or Alliance eliminations (South Down, East Derry).
The four or five elected could be enough to deprive UUP of an Executive seat, which would constitute failure for Elliott and his reign would be over. Arise Danny Kennedy or poster boy Mike Nesbitt to save the Party.
Likewise if the “liberals” manage to stay inside the party, they will make up around half of its strength and be able to demand concessions from Elliott, including possibly his head.
Thats MY analysis of the “impact”.
I may be right. I may be wrong.
But I did not find it unduly difficult.
It would be difficult to think of any such group getting off the ground without the involvement of some usual suspects (or maybe just a single suspect) at QUB, who generally speaking prefers a low profile.
At least one of the Conservative ‘new blood’ has made it through to stand again.
Step forward ‘captain’ bill manwaring in that key target seat of west belfast.
Who says Tom is against liberal candidates?
‘The captain’ had to beat off a throng of …. well… 0 other candidates to regain selection.
New blood or old hat?
In Manwaring’s favour, he is at the very least an optimist, having mailshotted my very Republican estate for the Westminster elections.
Fitz – if these “2010 Group” folks are Tories then they are certainly not “liberal” – the Tories cuts will damage the lives of millions of Middle Britain families.
If the 2010 Group want to defect to the Tories then they should have the courage of their convictions, and speak up and stop leaking through Eamonn Mallie and just go ahead and do it.
Tom’s rural anti-GAA UUP may not be the answer – but neither is the Tories.
Great! I hope the day will come when SF routinely mailshot loyalist estates, and when Unionism will routinely mailshot nationalist estates.
Bring on normal politics.
I dont think I used the word “Tories” in my piece as I think they are not relevant in electoral politics here …the nature of the euphoria/Sluggerite cheerleaders that greeted UNPFC whatever and its shambolic demise in May…and of course Elliotts campaign against them…..being a great source of “I told ya so” amusement to me.
The Tories are not of course liberal….except they are more “socially” liberal.on issues such as homosexuality, sectarianism and this new very odd totemic issue of GAA.
Ive been observing liberal unionists from the days of Phelim O’Neill, Richard Ferguson, Robin Bailey……via Peter McLachlan to Duncan Shipley Dalton to Basil McRea and John McCallister.
Ultimately its a thankless and losing task.
The people we perceive as liberal lean to the Tories as you observe but also the Alliance Party.
To repeat my mantra from several threads the AP would be mad to actively head hunt any of the so called leaders. Let their political careers wither and die………the real prize for the AP is the voters that will be disenchanted with Elliotts brand of unionism.
The reality is that the concept of liberal unionism needs to be taken off the political chess board, forcing their voters to make a choice between traditional unionism or……well no choice really.
He is going to need a lot of them to vote for him if he thinks he has a chance of getting a seat in west belfast.
The fact that he looks and sounds like something from the home counties must go down really well in the shankill, lots of tory supporters there.
Fitzjameshorse1745.
Your penultimate analysis is acceptable. However I would detect that you are not a Unionist. There is in my opinion a very wide difference between One Nation Toryism a la Stanley Baldwin and what you perceive as Thatcherism. Which would be a hard message to sell in a province where 77% of GDP is state generated. However do not write off the forming of a middle grouping as opposed to the Fermanagh Luddite version. One could also say that the Cabal, whilst trousering the Conservative money of which 66% of the £300,000. utilised in both campaigns was raised in NI, wanted the project to fail as a means of preserving the status quo for the septuagarian UUP MLA team.
It would appear that the new UUP strategy is to only pursue the dwindling sectarian head count voting block which is an ever diminishing market share; whilst totally ignoring the 500,000. i.e. 42.5% non voters who they have no clue whatsoever how to appeal to.
The present political anoraks fail to acknowledge let alone court these people for votes. That is why mainland connected parties of both right and left inclinations are so desperately needed here.
Otherwise the number of voters will continue in the downward spiral.
UUP
Hundreds from the Shank-hill were ferried into Mayo and other areas to help the Southern Boycotted Tory Landlords. Not forgotten of forgiven yet in that neck of the woods!
With the Grand Old Man now in the Lords, who knows a few more DUP types may suffer from what James Joyce referred to as ‘Notions of Upperosity’. It is already there apparently in the Truly Useless Vestige unionism !
Now that West Of The Bann is predictable, I will am looking forward to focussing some attention on the Unionist Bun Fight. Icing on the cake if the Tories are also in the picture !
Ultimately its a thankless and losing task.
Liberal/Progressive Unionism may be thankless but it’s far from “losing” – it delivered the 1998 Agreement which even the DUP have signed up to now (with a few minor modifications at St Andrews)
“The reality is that the concept of liberal unionism needs to be taken off the political chess board, forcing their voters to make a choice between traditional unionism or……well no choice really.”
Bollocks – pro-Union voters need to have a choice between forward-looking moderate non-sectarian candidates and the right-wing traditionalist types.
The moderate wing of Unionism is not going to “wither away and die” to use your phraseology – inclusive and progressive Unionism is entirely in tune with the United Kingdom of 2010 and it’s a hell of a lot better than either the sectarian, exclusive so-called “unionism” proferred by the TUV or the idea that NI should join an irish republic that’s financially in the direst of straits.
A Shared Future Within the Union – that’s the way forward.
Wake up Tom Elliottt and smell the coffee!…
“…….The present political anoraks ………”
Was with you up to this point, even seemed to know what you were talking about and then your remark about ‘political anoraks’ !
Admit it you are just winging it, you know nothing of these people, anoraks indeed………. as if they would…..Barbour Jackets man, Barbour jackets for future reference, it was a dead give away !
The point is what best serves people who believe in a non sectarian pro UK stance.
The UUP no longer fills that gap as it has gone back to its Orange core, which may be a means of preserving itself for a little longer but will not bring it to lead pro UK voters.
The DUP, although moving towards the centre and may in fact has moved closer than the UUP, still has far too much sectarian baggage and history.
The Alliance party has declined over the last 20 years even with its current resurgence and had been looked on as little more than a non ‘orange and green’ ginger group, if that is not to many colours to stomach. It is also not openly pro UK.
What is needed here are Centre Left and Right parties who can appeal to a wide range of voters, the only debate is as to whether or not they should be linked to mainland parties.
I cannot believe that voters being pro UK would not want to be linked to the parties which actually run the UK and decide on how much money to allocate here.
Well of course 10 people could get together and form a pro UK centre right party.
And another 10 could form a pro UK centre left party.
And perhaps 50 people would vote for the centre right party and another 50 for the centre left party.
Problem solved.
The strange thing is that our actual voters are around 65%-70% of the electorate. The actual non voters differ from election to election (100% is statistically impossible and you have to take people with a legitimate excuse for not voting into consideration)……
There is of course a hardcore of non voters….pick your own number below 42.5% ………….lets say 25% …..but do you really think this hard core would enthusiastically EVER go to the Polls. The best case scenario is that a new “party” might add a few percentage points to overall turnout. But most actual votes would come from people who already vote changing to the newparty.
Allowing for regional variations (55% in West Belfast and 150% or whatever in FST) the overall statistics seem representative of the Communities as a whole.
in round figures……50% unionist, 40% Nationalist and 10% for the “middle ground”.
I may or may not be a Unionist. I may or may not be a Martian.
But the fact is that it cant be in the interests of a Republican/Nationalist parties to support anything about Unionism.
Nor can it be in the interests of Unionist parties to sustain and nourish republicanism.
At this moment the weakest of the (now) five main parties appears to be the UUP. It is certainly the issue vexating unionist commentators. The UUP seems long term incapable of holding together its socially conservative and socially liberal “wings”……in part its generational and in part geographic.
That weakness wont concern nationalists.
Except of course in the sense that (despite pious rhetoric of living together) the aim of nationalism/republicanism is to destroy unionism. The mirror image of Unionist aims.
So………socially liberal unionists are the ones with the dilemna. Currently the weakest link. They have no natural home in the UUP but as has been observed in another comment the AP is unattractive because of its agnostic stance on the border.
If and when the “liberals” jump……..they have three choices.
(a) the AP hoping it becomes more “unionist” which it wont do (b) throw in its lot with conservatives…….no future in that (c) a UPNI Faulkner type liberal party east of the Bann.
No choice seems attractive.
The current “liberal” figure heads will go the same way as M McLachlan, Bailey, Shipley-Dalton….retirement from front line politics.
Where the voters go is of course the real issue……UUP, DUP even, AP………or the garden centre or Belmont Bowling Club.
lol, ’bout sums it up FJH, or maybe the UUP, SDLP & Aliance could merge for a while then split into a centre left and centre right party? both mildly pro-union like the old alliance. Of course thats as likely as the DUP & SF merging into one party…. although watching them operate at Stormont who knows!
I cannot believe that voters being pro UK would not want to be linked to the parties which actually run the UK and decide on how much money to allocate here.
What about the voters who are not unionist, dont want to vote for a unionist party but do wish the party they vote for to be allied to a party which runs the UK?
Perhaps that kind of voter does not yet exist. Why would it? Such a party does not yet exist. The concept needs to be tested because it is one which many centre-right nationalists might actually warm to.
These two strings originally started off with Tom Elliott’s letter to all UUP members. however it would now appear that this was possibly not distributed to all the Party Officers. As described earlier at the last executive meeting one poor unwitting councillor criticised the letter and got given a version of behind the Primary School discipline by the Headmaster. This well known teacher and personal tutor to the Great Leader has now sent an Email to the Parent of an autistic child calling him “a shit head” which has been quoted on BBC television twice this week. A UUP ministerial collegue it appears has made light of this unpardonable slip. Surely this behaviour needs making an example of with the strong disciplinary action promised in the Great Leader’s letter or has a complete state of total anarchy been allowed in the higher ranks of the party.
A public apology and full retraction of these two unfortunate incidents should now be made immediatly, otherwise no one will take anything the Great Leader says seriously.
With tongue in cheek one might even suggest that this apology is also read out in all FST Orange Lodges.
Well Mr Mallie, it has been a week now, and not an another pip about this. Poor journalism.
Chalk up another insightfull sensible analysis for the White Cockade !
There is a little inconvenient truth lurking here for all ‘progressive’ and ‘leftists’ on this island. It was there in the 1918 election and it will still be there in whatever elections are closest to 2018 !
I have spend thirty years making frequent trips up to front doors and canvassing in town centers, GAA events or wherever there was a likely vote to be had. My own politics are SF out of habit but Labor Left by instinct, so my remarks can be taken in that context.
However much we leftist or liberals would wish it otherwise, the fact remains that the majority politics on this Island are Center and leaning to the right. The ‘properly pissed off’ factor could well give labor a victory in the South, but if so it will not be a ‘swing to the Left’ Continental style, it will be an anti-government vote and a vote of no confidence in lackluster Fine Gael under Kenny……if he is still around that is.
The man that drove his concrete mixer to the gates of the Dail is radical and hopping mad. However lest we forget, his personal issue with the government is that he cannot get a few million to allow what had been a profitable business to continue. In as much as he believes that he should not be responsible for the squander mania of others, he is opposed to the Fianna Failures way of doing things but New Labor material he aint!
It is my personal belief that after such a Labour government a rejuvenated Fianna Failure will make a come back. There are groups both inside Fine Gael and Fianna Failure who want a left v right divide but so far true to form, both sets of gutless wonders have not been able to organize the proverbial ‘piss up in a brewery’
There are rumors circulating………and I have touched on this before, that
1) that serious negotiations are underway for the purchase of Allied Irish Bank,
2) that the same international investors are prepared to buy a significant tranch of Nama assets,
3) that the released State monies will then be made available ‘to get the country moving’
This is supposed to be happening with the help of the Israeli State who are facilitating the International financier discussions with certain Irish political interests. Payback for the Israelis is a few big military contracts and a changed political stance from Ireland on the Palestinian issue.
Martin is about to become marginalized, hence the recent flexing of the latter’s political muscles and alliance with Hanifan. One of the things the Big Guys want is a left/right political divide that will give Irish politics in the Twenty-Six counties a more or less 60/ 40 and once the pissed off factor has worked through the system, a projected 70% / 30% right/ left divide.
Looking North the progressive/ liberal unionists may be as despairing of where their party is as are more of us with our own parties in the South. However as the prolific Alias had frequently pointed out since the election, the majority of the UUP have exactly the leadership and policies that the majority of its delegates voted for. That cannot be gainsaid !
Likewise the rump of the SDLP also represent their middle class conservative base and we know where Sinn Fein and the DUP are. Alliance will no doubt, despite proving itself politically double as usual, will still be mainly dependent on the internal quarrels in the greater unionist family rather than their own merits per se to build up numbers and break out of their political refugee sanctuary.
That just leaves Dear Old Admiral Windbag to mount another Dunkirk with his motley crew of little ships. However next time as the last exercise , most will prefer to take their chances on the beach …..or swim home!
Where then is the great demand for social change or new politics to come from North and South ? Other than the 40% of stay at homes being pulled out to vote I cannot see where the numbers for change are going to come from. Yes people are pissed off with politics but represented by parties that represent their values.
Will the choice of Conservative and Labor if added to the mix in the North make any appreciable difference to the politics there ? I doubt it ! The next cat among the pigeons in Northern politics will be the entry of Fianna Failure in Mid Ulster. That may throw the UUP a lifeline but this is exactly what Fianna Failure want, they are as determined to break Sinn Fein as Sinn Fein are to break Unionism.
Politics do indeed make strange bedfellows and Fianna Failure will not care about handing a seat to the UUP in the short term. It would have the double whammy of shafting Sinn Fein and getting brownie points with the unionists. As Blaney, Boland and co found out, FF do not have friends, it has interests and Sinn Fein are one of the biggest obstacles and threats to these interests on this Island at present.
The history of southern politics and politicians can show where any individuals or group in that position ended up !
This is supposed to be happening with the help of the Israeli State who are facilitating the International financier discussions with certain Irish political interests. Payback for the Israelis is a few big military contracts and a changed political stance from Ireland on the Palestinian issue.
Munster where are you getting this from. please provide links, i am seriously interested.
FJH, the question how many of these voters are there? yes many of them tick some of the “liberal” boxes, ie. maybe they are athiests, maybe they speak Irish! but scrape the surface and they are little Paisley underneath!
“This is supposed to be happening with the help of the Israeli State who are facilitating the International financier discussions with certain Irish political interests. Payback for the Israelis is a few big military contracts and a changed political stance from Ireland on the Palestinian issue.” – MV
Yup, Israeli businesses are going to agree to lose tens of billions of their money in NAMA in return for other Israeli businesses gaining a few million from Ireland’s tiny arms budget and, of course, in return for an obviously important global player like Ireland changing its foreign policy in regard to Israel (which, incidentally, is now harmonised with the rest of the EU).
NAMA, kid with fertile imagination, intends to increase the value of its assets by demolishing them. It isn’t in any way a business venture: it is a toxic dump designed by the EU to contain eurosystem debts within the borrowing state.
Israel, incidentally, makes more money from its arms industry from the EU for simply exporting nothing, and that is under the control of Ireland’s current EU commissioner. How does it manage this stroke of genius when it isn’t a member of the EU? Well, it participates in the EU’s framework programme for scientific research, drawing down 580 million of the 54 billion allocated to the programme for 07/13. I bet you, as a rabid europhile, didn’t know that your money was being used by the EU to fund Israel’s arms industry?
Now as for Israeli businesses being dumb enough to bail out Irish businesses: well, Israel is about the same size as Ireland but Israel has 127 companies on NASDAQ compared to Ireland which has just 3 companies on NASDAQ. The difference being that Israeli business people own their businesses while Irish-owned businesses own nothing.
Israel, of course, invests 3 times the amount of money as a percentage of its GDP in R&D that Ireland invests. Given that Ireland will now be ‘investing’ several times the amount that Israel invests in R&D into bailing out the eurosystem via NAMA and such, it’s a safe bet that it won’t be increasing its spend on R&D. There is no reason for Israel to bail Ireland out of the mess it created for itself by joining the eurosystem. Unfortunately, Ireland is now just a backward and bankrupt irrelevant region of the EU, and no one would waste as much as a fiver seeking to influence its (EU-directed) foreign policy.
lamh….
“……….There are rumors circulating………and I have touched on this before……”
I did say rumor which may be defined as………. a bit of information circulating among a number of people that is not confirmed and may be false !
I went public with this story two months ago because like O’Malley and his 2010 group story, I know my source and this person I heard it from had been told by a Government Minister.
Since this we have had Lenihan the Fianna Failure Finance Minister give the annual Fine Gael Collins Oration at Beal Na Blath. ( Think Gerry invited to speak at Eniskillen on poppy day and you have got how unlikely that was)
We have had Fine Gael sources from the failed coup making noised for a new centrist political party and Simon Coveny ( Beal Na Blath influence) left out of Kenny shadow cabinet.
We have had various ‘ inspired’ news stories advocating a new center right party etc
Murphy the man who gave us the humble tayto crisp ( and figured out a way to make a shilling from a piece of a spud ) said that five out of a hundred make things happen, fifteen out of a hundred know what is happening and the remaining eighty out of a hundred know nothing is happening.
Some of these ‘five’ insiders have been trying to steady the specific Fianna Failure financial troops and lay the ground work for around ten weeks now, my first piece on this in slugger is about eight weeks back.
Contrary to the picture of doom and gloom the Twenty-Six counties are far from as screwed as it appears, we are back to the early to mid 1990 levels, a steep fall from where we were but far from where we had been. Fianna Failure and Fine Gael are delighted to see ‘natural forces’ and ‘external factors’ cutting back a bloated and overpaid public services etc.
Ironic as it may seem Ireland’s financial services center is still vibrant , electronic, information technology, medical products etc, exports are climbing. For anyone who has the finances to buy these massive part finished commercial projects at a knock down price, in ten years or so their investments will have boomed out of sight.
Just as the Irish bought up significant tranches of London, any one coming into Dublin and buying half Nama, can buy half Dublin in the process. The Billions that Russian Billionaire have offshore in Anglo Irish Bank is an indication of the type of money involved.
In the dreadful air crash last weekend we also got a glimpse of the financial connections and the links between Northern Capital and ‘The City’. No crash there or in Old Southern money, they see the crash coming and had well cashed in long before the crash!
I have heard enough on the grapevine to know that some very serious moves are planned and under consideration but Lamh, it is not the sort of thing one can google up…….. rather you wake up some morning to the done deed……. that is the way these things work !
Alias,
Nice attempted piece of decoy work but I will pass on most of it…… as indeed I will be on most of your contributions from now on……… I did draw your attention to the fact that ‘Alan Maskey’ was copying much of your style and your postings structures unfortunately share too much of Alan Maskeys attributes and I am trying to get a break from whatever clever clogs is using this persona !
I am quite content to key off the occasional piece in between watching tv and answering emails from academic contacts. I could not of course in such circumstances dealing with things in such a offhand way, hope to match your in-depth penetrative analysis or your insider extensive knowledge of the inner workings and of the EU etc.
And of course I do not have your first hand knowledge of that gallant little bastion of tolerance and democracy, Israel, so I will have to bow to your expertise in that area also.
However to take you up on one small point here….I specifically said……
“……“This is supposed to be happening with the help of the Israeli State who are facilitating the International financier discussions with certain Irish political interests….”
I did not say Israeli business per se were involved, in fact I specifically said International Financier discussions. However as I have already exposed Alan Maskeys attempted decoys, it is getting a little boring to repeat the exercise here.
You should really have a word with that deluded chap you know, he really do read like you on a bad day !
“………Yup, Israeli businesses are going to agree to lose tens of billions of their money in NAMA in return for other Israeli businesses gaining a few million from Ireland’s tiny arms budget and, of course, in return for an obviously important global player like Ireland changing its foreign policy in regard to Israel (which, incidentally, is now harmonized with the rest of the EU)……..”
Munsterview
Its a pity there is nothing solid (in print) on this as to be honest i find it hard to believe that the Irish would disolve what little credability they have on the world stage by flip floping on the issue of palestine having lasted 90 years without nailing their colours to a mast, even given that desparate times and all that, ps i did not need the gerry/enniskillin analogy i may be out of my depth but not totally ignorant of Irish history. Sorry for the delay in a reply.
ahh Russians.
While getting a new exhaust fitted to the car in our local Kwik Fit Fitter place yesterday, I noticed it is just a few doors from Basil McCreas advice centre.
It dispalyed a slogan “new start” or something like that.
Has he already left the UUP? Or just preparing for leaving? Or do all UUP advice centrs have the same logo?
[...] second post by Mallie published on 21st October indicated that the Group was putting together a constitution setting out [...]