How did those polls work out?

Now the election is over we can compare information from the Inform Communications and LucidTalk (not for Slugger) polls with the outcome.

Actual

DUP 25%
SF 25.5%
SDLP 16.5%
UCUNF 15.2%
TUV 3.9%

Inform Communictions

DUP 26%
SF 25.%
Other 19%
SDLP 17%
UCUNF – 13%
TUV – no report

Predicted:

Fermanagh/South Tyrone candidate, independent Rodney Connor — who has said he will take the Conservative whip unless it is against the interests of his constituency — is running neck and neck with Sinn Fein’s Michelle Gildernew, on 44% and 43% respectively, the results indicate.
Today’s poll also signals that Traditional Unionist Voice leader Jim Allister is eight points behind the DUP’s Ian Paisley jnr in North Antrim — arguably too big a gap to close at this stage of the election.
But Mr Allister’s party would appear to be on course for at least five seats in next year’s Assembly elections.

LucidTalk

DUP 23.5%
SF 26%
SDLP 12.5%
UCUNF 16.8%
TUV 8.7%

Predicted:

Based on the polling data, he predicted that the DUP’s William McCrea will lose South Antrim to Sir Reg and that independent unionist Rodney Connor will narrowly take Fermanagh/South Tyrone from Sinn Fein’s Michelle Gildernew.

Upper Bann and North Antrim were listed as “too close to call”, being within the poll’s margin of error, although Ian Paisley Jnr was narrowly ahead in North Antrim.

He also predicted that DUP leader Peter Robinson will narrowly retain his East Belfast seat.

,

  • Neither of them predicted the TUV failure.

  • Mark McGregor

    Alan,

    On the numbers both got TUV very wrong but I think most were wrongfooted by the level of their failure.

    However, their percentages were (apart from Lucid’s SDLP) were well within 3% margin of error.

    The main failing was Lucid’s analysis which was wrong on every single prediction.

    Surprisingly good on the numbers from both though.

  • Mark McGregor

    Should add it also seems to spell an end to massive miscalculation of DUP & SF support.

  • the old Manxman

    Inform’s total percents were slightly better than I expected; I suppose with DUP and SF in government “shy” voters don’t exist any more in face to face maybe we now have shy Alliance?).

    Of course total figures across NI are not that useful in predicting seat by seat and with Inform’s sample less than 100 per constituency, no surprise they missed anything interesting