On that Newsletter “Slugger O’Toole” poll…
For those of you wondering why we got ‘scooped’ on our own poll, as reported on the Newsletter this morning, it’s because it’s not actually our poll. We had been talking to Lucid Talk about running a depth poll in two key constituencies, rather than an 18 constituency wide survey. Bill White, former chair of South Belfast Ulster Unionist Association, who owns LucidTalk, explains below the fold:
LucidTalk were originally going to do 2 ‘Deep-Polls’ in two targeted Northern Ireland constituencies, however the time and cost constraints were too prohibitive. This is because ‘Deep-Polls’ are required if you target specific seats, in order to achieve the level of accuracy required to do a seat forecast, i.e. for each of these two seats.
Deep-Polls involve a sample size of 400 per seat, structured around 40 clusters across the targeted constituency thus providing a balanced socio-economic, and religious sample etc., which is representative of the constituency etc.
Due to the time constraints, LudidTalk had only 2 days to do this Poll, and as such, had to do/use the ‘Fast-Trak’ methodology of a Telephone poll, using a sample size of 360 across six N. Ireland constituencies.
As such, we carried out a six-constituency telephone poll with a sample size of 360 chosen from across these six constituencies. We then did a projection of this polling data across all 18 Westminster constituencies, and produced the results that are detailed in the report below:
Based on LucidTalks ‘6 constituency polling’, it suggests the current NI-wide ‘state of the parties’ is as follows:
DUP – 23.5%
UUP – 16.8%
PUP – 1.0%
TUV – 8.7%
SF – 26%
SDLP – 12.5%
Alliance – 8.5%
Green – 1.2%
Others – 1.8%
Of course, the point about regional variations is key, particularly in a Westminster election, and also the actual candidates standing, and how they’re viewed/perceived in each constituency is vitally important. In this context, the above NI wide polling estimations can only be treated as a crude guide.
@jeep55
Thanks for this – really interesting stuff – I’ll watch that one on election night.
I have a half-baked theory (who would have thought!) that votes in a PR type election aren’t always a reliable indicator of how it will go in a FTP election in a marginal. People are electing a winner rather than six members and I wonder does that sometimes change things.
As for the Green and Alliance vote – given that NI voters(even an area stuffed full of academics) sometimes “run home to Momma” in extremis – might middle class Roman Catholics who normally might vote Green or Alliance see Dr McDonnell in difficulties and vote to keep him in.
Unionists are no different in this respect I suppose, when the need arises many will make sure their man gets in and remember that the seat was represented by “very Unionist ” members for a long time – two of whom were seen as so noteworthy that they were murdered in office.
I note your points and look forward to watching events unfold – thanks again!
The civil service vote point is interesting, but without full knowledge of the figures my understanding is that the majority of civil servants are catholics in the lower grades it is only the higher up you go that the levels become predominantly protestant. Therefore the impact of the civil service vote may not have as much bearing as you think on unionist battles.
@medillen
That’s a good point, not one I had considered, if your feel for the make up of the lower grades is correct that might well have a bearing.
Thank you for that – I’ve been away too long – a rookie mistake!
I think you underestimate the difficulties facing the DUP in South Belfast. Alasdair McDonnell is far from hated amongst a lot of moderate unionist voters. People might prefer a unionist but there isn’t much motivation to vote him out on a personal level, nor any great regard for Jimmy Spratt. Spratt isn’t loathed but he isn’t a vote winner either.
Secondly after Iris and policing and justice the DUP have offended a vast swath of their core support, some of whom could go to UCUNF, some of which will undoubtedly just stay at home.
Add these factors to Maskey’s withdrawal and the numbers just aren’t there for the DUP in my opinion.
If the DUP overall get 24% they should be delighted as they could fare far, far worse given the European elections. Alliance though I still can’t see winning East Belfast. My money would still be on Robbo, Ringland second, Long third.
The nationalist side of the poll is far more interesting. I can see the SDLP vote up in South Belfast (Maskey and a personal vote), West Tyrone (Deeney’s vote) and South Down (Caitriona Ruane). Elsewhere it is doubtful to see where they will be anything but squeezed, especially FST.
I’d be very curious if any SDLP backers here think this poll is inaccurate and if so where they think the tide could be turning in their favour.
I think that Foyle, despite boundary change will become more secure. Mclaughlin was much more high profile than Anderson and I remain of the view that freed from the shackles of party leadership, Durkan has become more popular. I expect an that majority will atleast come back to the level of 2005 (2007 assembly showed a slump) and could increase.
One other place I’m looking at is my own constituency of Newry Armagh. Now I would not even consider an SDLP win but it will be interesting to see if SDLP can come back to a level that could see two seats in the assembly next time round. The seat can hardly yet be seen as a Sinn Fein heartland
Re: Newry & Armagh
they should have run Sharon Haughey
OK All
There’s been a lot of abuse fired at LucidTalk, and myself, and yes, also at the Bel. Tele. poll to be published later today (let’s see what it says before we comment).
I don’t take back anything I’ve said in the statement above. I said I ‘volunteered’ this information to the Newsletter and Slugger FOC – I covered all the costs myself!
It doesn’t matter who was going to publish first – Slugger or the Newsletter, the fact is I volunteered to do this Poll at my own expense, and I did that. If I’m doing this at my own expense, then I reserve the right to present the results in any way, and within any timing I choose. BTW: The methodology I used is not garbage as someone has said, it has a rigour to within a 3% error, and if anyone wants to discuss this with me then they are very welcome to do so – Mobile No. below. However, as I explained above, of course there are much more accurate ways of Polling e.g. ‘Deep Polling’ (as described above), but these have to be paid for – the old line comes to mind: ‘You pay for what you get’!
Apparently, the Bel. Tele. later today are going to publish an 18 constituency poll with a sample size of 160 per each constituency (or so I’m told!), and apparently they’re not going to publish their polling methodology – this borders on the limits of credibility for a Poll. However, again I would say, I’m not going to criticise the Bel. Tele., as I don’t know the business relationship that they have with their supplying company for this polling – i.e. INFORM (maybe it’s all been done free of charge!).
The bottom line with all this is, that you can’t expect polling companies to go on providing this service FOC, and then start criticising them on blogs like Slugger, or if you’re journalist, in your columns. If you don’t like what we say then ignore it!!
It’s unbelievable isn’t it – I do this as a hobby, at my own expense (a labour of love if you like), with maybe the small possibility of building a small business, with maybe one employee, which would help the N. Ireland economy, and all you get is a lot of abuse!
BTW: this point also applies to INFORM’s poll in tomorrow’s Bel. Tele. – at least they’re also trying to do something positive, and move N. Ireland forward a bit!
Incidentally, I see Ed Currans column in last-nights Bel. Tele., follows my predictions exactly!
In any case, and I say this to everyone, there’s a day of reckoning comes to all Pollsters – It’s called election day: let’s see what happens on Thursday night – not long to go now!!!
Bill White – LucidTalk
M.: 07711 450545
@ Lionel: I’d have thought that Newry & Armagh a pretty secure SF heartland at this point. SF felt comfortable enough to even deselect their MLAs in the constituency in the past and run new people. I think Geraldine Donnelly is the only councillor holding the fort in the South Armagh wards for the SDLP. I’d expect that the SDLP vote will collapse further and no hope of them regaining a second seat next year. I think the Nationalist message from the election will be like all other elections for the last decade: the ongoing slow demise of the SDLP. Sad really. But trotting out policies like abandon abstentionism (for the British Parliament), as though the whole GFA arrangements were stages in copper-fastening the Union, is hardly going to endear the SDLP to the vast swathe of the Nationalist electorate. Nor will Margaret Ritchie as leader. In South Down, watch for a further slide in her vote, despite the presence of SF’s most unpopular minister in the constituency. In Foyle, Durkan’s vote (which was more motivated by the John Hume factor than by any personal love affair with Durkan) will also get squeezed. Anderson seems to be popular enough and even with the hardcore dissident element in Derry, her ‘Volunteer’ past hold some sway – especially when the only alternative is the SDLP.
“– this borders on the limits of credibility for a Poll”
It is well into the not-credible territory frankly.
The margin of error is 7% for the constituency polls in belfast telegraph and they are a week old. Useless.
The BT poll today suggests a very wide margin between Ian Paisley jnr and Sunny Jim’s TUV. So if JA can’t take a seat himself, he might as well abandon ship and follow Bob McCartney back into well earned obscurity.
I would agree that South Armagh is a Sinn Fein Heartland but Newry & Armagh is alot bigger than that. Most are floating voters who went over to Sinn Fein in 2005 for the first time. Its only five years ago and it would be unsafe to assume this is a long term safe seat for Sinn Fein. It is perhaps the only of Sinn Fein’s current constituencies where the nationalist vote was historically SDLP.
Conor Murhy has more of a profile than Dominic Bradley, who was largely unknown to the electorate outside of Newry until recently. Conor Murphy has made a few gaffes in the past few years and he is not well liked (never makes it on TV). I see the vote as very much floating and Murphy certainly hasn’t nailed it down just yet. A strong SDLP candidate could get up to the two quota level. Bradley is not the man to take the seat from Murphy, but he may do better than last time round. I’m just interested.
Is that right? Were did you get that from. It seems a very strange poll.
Makes Lucid’s one seem sensible
[...] today (I cannot find it online yet. It seems a larger poll that the “Slugger O’Toole one” Mick mentioned.Currently the Belfast Telegraph has:DUP 26% SF 25% SDLP 17% UCUNF 13% Alliance 7% Independent 6% TUV [...]
Yeah it’ll certainly prove interesting. I’m disappointed by the SDLP’s lacklustre campaign though. Emphasising aspects of policy like abstentionism and Adams’ judgement on internal family issues likely won’t wash with the public. Ritchie’s more of the firm school principal and lacks the ‘steady Eddie’ appeal of the outgoing MP. The most fortunate thing for the SDLP is perhaps that in two of their seats they’re either fighting a divided Unionist camp (Sth Belfast) or a poor adversary (Sth Down). Let’s see.
But another slide in the polls should surely raise alarm bells before an even more important Assembly election next year.
Then again, maybe the Irish Labour Party’ll be on the ballots by then!