17 out of 18
Several blogs got here first, but 17 or the 18 joint UUP and Conservative candidates have been announced today.
Mike Nesbitt – Strangford
Daphne Trimble – Lagan Valley
Sandra Overend – Mid Ulster
Fred Cobain – North Belfast
Ross Hussey – West Tyrone
Bill Manwaring – West Belfast
Trevor Ringland – East Belfast
Harry Hamilton – Upper Bann
Danny Kennedy – Newry and Armagh
John McAllister – South Down
Rodney McCune – East Antrim.
Lesley McAuley – East Londonderry.
Paula Bradshaw – South Belfast
David Harding – Foyle
Irwin Armstrong – North Antrim.
Ian Parsley – North Down
Tom Elliott – Fermanagh and South Tyrone
#
diane dodds of d.u.p fame came third in the euro election did she not.
Posted by Michaelhenry on Mar 21, 2010 @ 02:08 PM
She did but allisters not facing her hes going up against a paisley on the ballot paper and the result will be totally different.The tUV candidates will be facing some big hitters Jeffery donaldson will hammer harbinson in LV how many votes do you think harbinson will take off donaldson.?
onservative candidate for NA Irwin Armstrong will no doubt help TUV candidate Jim Allister attract all previous UUP voters.
Does anyone know of any Tory voters in NA?
Posted by dwatch on Mar 21, 2010 @ 02:16 PM
I think UCUNF vote will hold up and remain about the same in NA
paisley and donaldson will win all right paul,being in power with sinn fein will be a big vote catcher for them.
David Burnside seems an obvious person for them to fall back on in SA.
I love the way the party activists suddenly reappear on Slugger when an election comes around with their stories of what they are hearing “on the ground”. They hear what they want to hear and are not really going to reprogram the anoraks that we all are who play on Slugger. Their vivid imaginations will not influence one voter. That said I suppose we will just have to put up with them in the meantime.
Jim Allister, and I am not a fan, will in my humble opinion give IPJ one hell of a run for his money. Expect a few worried DUP looks around the counting centre. It will be tight, much tighter than Paul would want it to be, but I think that the DUP will hold on to the seat by their fingertips. There are a lot of issues that have not gone away just because nobody is currently mentioning them. Watch the dirt fly when the campaign starts. The real electoral damage to be done by the TUV will be at the next Assembly elections I reckon. Donaldson etc will be stung a little but not hurt.
Cynic, I’m not back on because of the election, I’m back on because I have a University Assignment due and I can’t be bothered to do it.
MichaelHenry, most people seem to be quite happy with powersharing, at least in principle.
[i]I think UCUNF vote will hold up and remain about the same in NA[/i]
I doubt it, why should 2005 election ( Rodney McCune’s (UUP) 6,637 UUP voters) even go to the polling booth to waste their votes on an unknown Tory UCUNF?
They will obviously vote TUV to help Jim Allister knock the Paisley family into political oblivion. Like Paisley & DUP did to David Trimble in the 2005 election. After all UUP supporters of Sir Reg & Trimble are more embittered & resentful against Paisley than they disapprove of Allister’s TUV. Revenge is the name of this election’s game even if UCUNF lose out.
i am also happy with powersharing yellowsmurf,this is what the people of the 32 counties voted for in the good friday agreement,what sane person would say no to the people of the 32 counties.
[b]Paisley’s stronghold is now the key battleground[/b]
Ireland Eye: Ian Paisley’s seat will see a huge fight between the DUP, Sinn Féin and dissident Unionists in the general election
by John Coulter Sunday, March 21st, 2010
http://www.tribunemagazine.co.uk/2010/03/21/paisley’s-stronghold-is-now-the-key-battleground/
the tribune story is nonsense paisley jnr will retain the seat and PR leadership is safe.
a question how many DUP MPs will lose there seats if everyone is saying they the DUP are going to get hammered.????
i would say there is more chance that UCUNF will return 0 seats than the DUP losing seats.
paul,
what are your thoughts on the DUP’s education policy?
paul,
what are your thoughts on the DUP’s education policy?
Posted by Sammy Wilson’s calculator for the sums on Mar 21,
I am a realist and I simply dont think the unionist community will vote for TUV dinasaurs in there droves this will be a different election.
Yes, Paul, but what are [i]your thoughts[/i] on the party’s education policy?
Do you have any?
#
Yes, Paul, but what are your thoughts on the party’s education policy?
Do you have any?
Posted by Sammy Wilson’s calculator for the sums on Mar 21, 2010 @ 05:15 PM
no I dont.
So why do you support them?
[i]i would say there is more chance that UCUNF will return 0 seats than the DUP losing seats.[/i]
Agreed, I think Paisley Jun will win against Allister in NA. The DUP will hold Strangford and could pick up an extra seat in SB.
See difference in 2005 Westminster election
Alasdair McDonnell (SDLP) 10,339
Jimmy Spratt (DUP) 9,104
Michael McGimpsey (UUP) 7,263
Many UUP voters will vote DUP this time to save the seat going to Irish Nationalists seeing Trimble, Sir Reg & Cameron refused to have a unity candidate. [b]There will be no unity candidates – Trimble[/b] http://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/There-will-be-no-unity.6168256.jp
o why do you support them?
Posted by Sammy Wilson’s calculator for the sums on Mar 21, 2010 @ 05:22 PM
I am a realist and giving you my opinion and I am not a DUP voter.
#
Yes, Paul, but what are your thoughts on the party’s education policy?
Do you have any?
Posted by Sammy Wilson’s calculator for the sums on Mar 21, 2010 @ 05:15 PM
parents want academic selection to stay, it has been saved by the dup now we need to sort out how it is implemented.
The UUPs policy is to go back to the trimble days when ministers could do what they wanted to. Which is why were are in the position we are, as they allowed McGuiness to sign the order to end the 11 plus
seen how the d.u.p allowed sinn fein to be over poilceing and justice in the near future harry j despite them saying no untill they turned.
All this harping on about education is a smokescreen by Sir Reg Empey & the UUP to avoid facing what will happen to the marginal seats of SB & FST. Education has been a hot potato sectarian debate since partition in 1922, and will still be a similar controversy in 2022.
Education is not an important Union with UK or United Ireland matter, whereas the winning as many of the 18 Northern Ireland Westminster seats by Republican or Unionist MP’s is.
The DUP offered the UUP to have a pact with them to return FST and SB to Unionist seats, and the UUP refused, so upon their heads be it.
dwatch, were the DUP interested in unionist unity when they entered places like F&ST;, SB and West Tyrone and split up the vote?
It is only recently they have been harping on about unionist unity since the arrival of the TUV. I wonder why?
Garza, all our yesterdays whining and moaning what the DUP did or didn’t do will not win seats for the Union in Northern Ireland.
The fact is the DUP have put the hand of friendship out to the UUP were it matters most. IE: saving as many seats for Unionism.
Sir Reg Empey & David Trimble are blinded by their own bitterness and resentment against the DUP to help in any Unionist advancement in future NI politics. Its time they took a back seat and moved on.
See another Armstrong running for the UUP.Does anyone know if he is related to Sandra Armstrong(Overend)in Mid Ulster? It appears now that the UUP have selected candidates just because they are women and not on merit.
No need; found it in the link. 2 Conservatives.
Joe, I’d make that one Conservative. Parsley may be a member of the Tories in name, but reading his contributions on here (and on his own blog, where he justifies the UUP’s anti-agreement stance) you could be forgiven for having the impression you’re dealing with a dyed-in-the-wool UUP activist, especially given that he is siding with the UUP against the policy spoken by his own party leader.
Can anyone tell me more about Paula Bradshaw, is she a serious candidate?
dodrade,
She’s serious ok – seriously there to ensure Alasdair McDonnell has a comfortable majority in South Belfast.
Because that’s preferable than even talking to the DUP about trying to ensure a unionist MP could be returned.
dodrade: Yes, Paula Bradshaw is very much a serious candidate.
I tend to agree with dwatch.
I do not believe the DUP will loose any seats although the associated numbers may change here and there, the results will be the same. They are close enough in South Belfast to take the seat come what may – especially in the light of the UUP’s uncompromising stand on Unionist Unity and an friendly local UUP branch.
However, going out on a limb here, I’d watch out for the DUP standing aside in FST anyway. This move would serve to completely wrong-foot the competition and leave the DUP in a potential win-win scenario.
If Elliot wins in FST, the DUP will be vindicated and earn major ‘brownie points’ with the greater Unionist electorate – magnanimous gesture etc.
If Elliot losses, well the DUP can simply claim to have done their best and infer that the people have given their opinion of the UUP/CON pact.
Watch this space and remember you read it here first.
With reference to Ian Parsley; as his name suggests he is more of a garnish or an after-thought.
No definite flavour, only a mild aesthetic effect, and nobody would really care or notice if it wasn’t there.
An unfair analysis?
You decide.
Niccolo
There is a play the ball not the man rule here.
Comrade Stalin
Bitter much?
slug,
Mr Parsley up until very recently was a committed member of a party (the Alliance) that refuses to describe itself as Unionist.
Now he is campaigning under a banner with Unionist in the title deeds.
Coupled with the fact that the sitting MP who should be running for the UUP/CONs will not do so, he has been brought in as substitute.
I think that should get me off the yellow card ref.
Who are these nutters who think that what matters for the union is how many so-called unionist MPs are elected? What utter bollocks! What matters is who becomes Prime Minister and what the tax policies etc are! The union is secure in the short term and the only thing that secures it long term is advent of normal politics and people from both communities seeing the benefits of the union. Circling the wagons and tribalism threaten the union and disenfranchise British citizens of their right to elect a government! “Unionist unity” is a D”U”P distraction because the real unionism offered by a chance to vote in national politics threatens them. DUP should rename themselves the Ulster Nationalist Party and join forces with Plaid and the SNP, it would be more honest.
Who are these nutters who think that what matters for the union is how many so-called unionist MPs are elected? What utter bollocks! What matters is who becomes Prime Minister and what the tax policies etc are! The union is secure in the short term and the only thing that secures it long term is advent of normal politics and people from both communities seeing the benefits of the union. Circling the wagons and tribalism threaten the union and disenfranchise British citizens of their right to elect a government! “Unionist unity” is a D”U”P distraction because the real unionism offered by a chance to vote in national politics threatens them. DUP should rename themselves the Ulster Nationalist Party and join forces with Plaid and the SNP, it would be more honest.
Who are these nutters who think that what matters for the union is how many so-called unionist MPs are elected? What utter bollocks! What matters is who becomes Prime Minister and what the tax policies etc are! The union is secure in the short term and the only thing that secures it long term is advent of normal politics and people from both communities seeing the benefits of the union. Circling the wagons and tribalism threaten the union and disenfranchise British citizens of their right to elect a government! “Unionist unity” is a D”U”P distraction because the real unionism offered by a chance to vote in national politics threatens them. DUP should rename themselves the Ulster Nationalist Party and join forces with Plaid and the SNP, it would be more honest.
Thanks someone for posting your comments three times, I missed the first two
Apologies all!
V bad mobile signal looked like it hadn’t gone – moderators can maybe delete extra copies?
Apologies again!
Justin,
I thought it was important to correct the perception that Parsley is coming in as a Tory who stands to some extent aside from the usual rabble. The fact that he defers to Reg Empey ahead of his own party leader, and wrote a fairly substantial article on his own blog to that effect on that subject, suggests otherwise. If I didn’t know better I’d believe he was a paid-up UUP member.
Anyone want to lay odds North Down NI Conservative candidate Ian Parsley gets more votes than Julian Robertson did in 2005?
Lady Sylvia Hermon (UUP) 16,268
Peter Weir (DUP) 11,324
David Alderdice (Alliance) 2,451
Liam Logan (SDLP) 1,009
Julian Robertson (Conservative) 822
dwatch,
I think Parsley will get more because of the Tory-UUP combination. I feel it will appeal in North Down.
However, Herman, should she stand, may only cancel out Parsley and let Peter Weir through the middle as it were.
Just my opinion.
Niccolo,
Weir will only win if Hermon drops out. Many of the alliance electorate will vote for Hermon or Weir to embarrass Parsley. After all he did himself no favours with ND Alliance by leaving them to join the NI Conservative after the MEP election.
It is my feeling that a number of Alliance voters would have voted for Sylvia even if they hadn’t been trying to embaress Parsley because she is a popular and moderate political figure in North Down. Alliance voters would rather have Sylvia Hermon than Peter Weier, don’t forget that Alliance stood down in 2001 in favour of Sylvia over Bob McCartney, so voting for her doesn’t ever really feel like voting for an Ulster Unionist. The figures show that her personal vote takes an aweful lot of votes from Alliance.
Is Peter Weir the DUP candidate?? Rumours abound of a change! Anyone heard anything?
Is Peter Weir the confirmed DUP candidate?? Rumours abound of a change! Anyone heard anything?
Is Peter Weir the confirmed DUP candidate?? Rumours abound of a change! Anyone heard anything?
Is Peter Weir the confirmed DUP candidate?? Rumours abound of a change! Anyone heard anything?
Just testing that you are all paying attention.lol
You have to be fair here. Ian does have existing profile (councillor, deputy Mayor of North Down, Alliance euro candidate, etc etc) which will easily push him well ahead of the past Tory result. The UCUNF link up will benefit by providing him with manpower on the ground – something the Tories never had. Manpower is something that Sylvia won’t have if she decides to run as an independent.
Shortly after his defection I’d have said Parsley was a shoo-in for the seat under the Tory banner. These days, though, the message is confusing. The Conservative Party is today going to vote the devolution of policing and justice powers through Westminster. Conservative votes are not needed for this measure to pass, but it appears that the Conservatives are still (sensibly) keen to uphold the bipartisan policy, which makes a mockery of the claims from local Tories that Labour used the issue to play politics with the Tories, shafted Cameron, etc etc. Moreover, Parsley himself thinks that this is a bad decision, and has aligned himself with the anti-agreement UUP position, so what will he be saying to voters ?
And you can bet as we speak that Peter Weir and the DUP spindoctors are trawling the Slugger archives for everything Parsley ever said right here, “I am not a unionist” etc. It’s hard to say what natural Alliance voters might do if they felt persuaded to vote tactically, but North Down has had a persistent majority in favour of pro-agreement candidates for quite some time (McCartney benefiting from moderate votes split between Alliance and the UUP). Like I said a few weeks ago, the UUP’s decision to become anti-agreement could turn out to have been a severe strategic mistake.