Conservatives’ Orange card exposed as a joker
Owen Polley argues in the Bel Tel that “Tories respect our position in the UK”. I’m sure they do, but do they do it in the same way as the UUP? Not over the touchstone issue of devolving Justice they don’t. They want devolution completed to stabilise the Assembly and are embarrassed by the micro-politics of intra-unionist rivalry. UUs risk getting the worst of all possible worlds by confusing voters who stuck with them through the hard times of the first Assembly and who aren’t impressed by a little shake of ( tarnished?) Cameron stardust. Campaigns in favour of Labour and Conservative representation at Westminster are decent, democratically inspired and well intentioned but they suffer from mixed motives and a lack of clarity. All Uncunf may have achieved is to embolden the UUs to negativity at Stormont with no gain at Westminster. Cameron is covering all bases and chasing every potential vote for a hung Parliament. Beyond the presumed tactics, the Conservatives’ failure to explain what a more forward unionist policy means for Northern Ireland in the medium term is a serious error. It is a politically motivated exaggeration to claim that the Conservatives are threatening the stability of the GFA but they are behaving as if the point has never occurred to them. They are either being disingenuous or profoundly ignorant. It is not enough to say “why shouldn’t we “; they have to explain why they should in this divided polity which is only very shakily finding its feet. The Conservatives now find themselves being blamed for making destabilising gestures at a very sensitive juncture in our politics and exposed as impotent with their new found partners. We can be sure that they will pay careful attention to the noises from Washington however egregious these may seem at home. If you were David Cameron, who would you listen to more – Hillary Clinton or Reg Empey?
Has anybody heard any utterances from Sylvia Hermon on this?
granni trixie,
it is possible that Reginald wanted shot of the good project UCUNF in order to cut a deal with the DUP over SB etc. He may not be quite as stupid, but simply more irresponsible, than we give him credit for.
Perhaps Reginald will become the new MR NO of Ulster Politics, not just because he say NO, but also because he is going to get NO seats.
error above in 25
should read
This is the first time that the DUP have voted with ALL the nationalists and republicans against their fellow ‘unionists ’ in the UUP .
A ‘rubicon’ of sorts has been crossed even if the both parties are not Romeward bound
oneill,
OK gobsheen, but money goes to Slugger, will forward Mick my details, deposits not necessary.
Moderate Unionist,
“OK gobsheen, but money goes to Slugger, will forward Mick my details, deposits not necessary.”
Now don’t you forget to do that or indeed turn up here on results day. Looking forward to it already.
As I write, the vote for P & J has been carried. That effectively renders the Clinton warning irrelevant. The question remaining alive is whether this opposition to P & J will damage the UUP and the Conservatives, do no harm or help the UUP. Before I answer that, there are a couple of points in your post which I reject.
I am not a mind reader but I would suggest that UUP leaders may be thinking along the following lines. They could portray the DUP’s vote in favour of devolution of P & J a desperate ploy to buy them time when it was clear that if there was an assembly election tomorrow, they would be mauled as a result of ‘Irisgate.’
My own view is that they have misread the political temperature. There is growing evidence that a majority of Unionists favour the transfer of P & J.
In the short term, I do not think it will make any significant mathematical difference to UCUNF’s prospects in relation to the 18 Northern Ireland seats. If anything, the Gambit could slightly benefit them through tactical voting by TUV sympathisers but certainly not enough to bring about any political earthquake which would mortally wound the DUP.
The UUP and the Conservatives, if they are to do longer-term electoral damage to the DUP, needed to find clear blue water to separate themselves from them on an ideological level. As a result of the UUP’s move, it will now be much harder from hereon to brand the DUP as the extreme Unionist Party.
Following the General Election, the Conservative Party will want to take a very close look at the benefits of retaining the pact with the UUP balanced against advancing Conservativism without them. The UUP’s propensity to develop further as a party of Civic Unionism will form a large part of the weighing exercise. If it is concluded that the “Old Style” Unionists are likely to retain the upper hand for a very considerable time, then any renewal of the partnership is unlikely. The P & J decision gives credence to that contention.
The UUP’s decision to oppose P & J devolution could turn out to be a catastrophic strategic mistake.
Funny having read Owen Paterson’s article and listened to Cameron on Sky it appears there is no real difference of opinion between the Conservatives and UUP at all.
Except for disagreeing on whether or not policing and justice powers should be devolved to Northern Ireland. That’s a pretty diametric contrast, you’ve got to admit. Note, Cameron hasn’t been saying ‘I think Reg is right’, he’s been saying ‘I can’t tell Reg what to do’, which is radically different.
I don’t know why you’re even trying to spin this one.
Sammy Morse,
correction acccording to the BBC: He has been saying ” ‘I can tell Reg what to do’ but ‘I can’t make him do it’. That would be Cameron bullying (in UUP speak) of Wee Reggie.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/8556804.stm
oneill,
are you agreeing that the winnings go to Slugger and informing Mick of same? – if so £50 bet on.
“Rubbish . This is the first time that the DUP have voted with not ALL the nationalists and republicans against their fellow ‘unionists ’ the UUP ” – Greenflag
Oh right… and here was me thinking that the British government wasn’t an Irish nationalist party. Devolution of policing is in the GFA. Both governments support that agreement, as does the US. Incidentally, the US government always supported the legitimacy of British sovereignty over Northern Ireland and never supported Ireland; former claim to it, so it was always a ‘unionist’ government. Likewise, the Irish government has given up its claim to that territory and have accepted the legitimacy of British sovereignty as have the other parties that you allude to, so likewise they are all unionist parties.
“are you agreeing that the winnings go to Slugger and informing Mick of same? – if so £50 bet on”
MU
In my original, I said a charity of Mick’s choice, but I’ll leave it up to him. Watching you squirm (or more likely do a runner) on the day the results are announced will be reward enough.
50 quid on the Conservatives and Unionists to win at least 2 seats in Northern Ireland at the next election.
My details are already with Mick.
Sammy Morse: Except for disagreeing on whether or not policing and justice powers should be devolved to Northern Ireland.
Not ‘whether or not’ but ‘when’.
oneill,
“Watching you squirm (or more likely do a runner) on the day the results are announced will be reward enough.”
I have no intention of imitating Wee Reggie by squirming or running away from my responsibilities should the need arise. Incidentally which seats do you think they will win?
alias,
‘the US government always supported the legitimacy of British sovereignty over Northern Ireland and never supported Ireland;’
Without USA support there would never have been an Irish Free State never mind the present Republic . And I’m not talking about official US Government support but rather USA residents supporting the Irish cause via financial contributions and political support such that the UK was restricted to some extent on what it could ‘impose’ on Ireland unilaterally.
If they are all Unionist parties as you say then to paraphrase the top pig in Orwell’s Animal Farm -it’s very clear that some are more ‘unionist’ than others.
Bad move by Reggie .Should have seen it coming . Seymour Major above is close enough to the truth . Goodbye UCUNF and hello UCUNTU
It is possible that in noisily burying themselves, the UUP MLAs have helped to bury Irisgate as well.
SM,
“As a result of the UUP’s move, it will now be much harder from hereon to brand the DUP as the extreme Unionist Party”
That is a fair point (and overall good analysis)and will probably be reflected in the Nationalist view of Unionism but it is not clear what that will translate into in Unionist voting terms.
Greenflag, you’re modifying your argument. Your unmodified argument was that the US state is supporting an Irish nationalist agenda. That is not now and never was the case. The US state always supported the legitimacy of the British state’s sovereignty over the formerly disputed territory of Northern Ireland, and always regarded the competing claim of the Irish state to that territory as illegitimate. Nothing whatsoever has changed in that position since partition. It still supports the legitimacy of the British state’s sovereignty, and now lends its support to an agreement that accepts that legitimacy of the British state’s sovereignty. Therefore the US state always supported the ‘unionist’ position – or, rather, the British state’s position.
If it now supports the Irish state’s position it is only because the Irish state has changed its position from rejecting the legitimacy of the British state’s sovereignty to accepting its legitimacy, and ergo it now has the same position as the British state. Likewise, the other parties only enjoy the support of the US state insofar as they also support the British state. Those parties that do not support the British state do not, of course, enjoy the support of the US state.
There is no great mystery to the definition of a nationalist: it is a member of a nation-state who advocates a state for his nation as the sovereign territorial entity by which that nation’s right to self-determination may be exercised. Neither the SDLP nor the Shinners support a nation-state and both have formally renounced the right of their nation to self-determination, so neither are, by definition, nationalists. Their post-GFA ideological position is that of a non-sovereign nation, so they can live within a state that wherein another nation is sovereign. As they support the legitimacy of British sovereignty, they are all unionists. It doesn’t mean they swap nations – it just means they are converted into a non-sovereign nation with their own approval.
If you sign the deeds of your property over to another and rent your former property back from its new owner, then you have agreed to change your status from owner to tenant. You may still call yourself the landlord if that is your peculiar fancy, but you really shouldn’t expect the court to indulge your fantasy when you stop paying your rent and the new owner acts to evict you.
You either have a right to self-determination or you do not. If cannot give up that right and still call yourself a nationalist – unless, of course, the new owners allowed you that indulgence for their own purposes.
Typo: “There is no great mystery to the definition of a nationalist: it is a member of a nation who advocates a nation-state for his nation as the sovereign territorial entity by which that nation’s right to self-determination may be exercised.”
(It’s less mysterious now)
A UK general election is still only a few weeks away. And for the first time citizens in NI get to chose who the next PM is! I’m excited – are you? And if not, why the hell not?
I want Mr Cameron as PM so I vote UCUNF, if you want Mr Brown as PM you can vote Hermon (been in bed with Labour for years), SDLP (take Labour whip officially) or DUP (prostitute themselves to whoever writes the biggest cheque, and Mr Brown does like profligate spending, or as he calls it “investment”, ever so much) depending on who the likely candidate in your constituency is.
Who deals with the UK deficit? Who sets UK taxes? Who sets economic policy? – yes it is the UK government and this time, for the first ever time probably, you get to vote on it!
“Incidentally which seats do you think they will win?”
“Moderate” “unionist”,
You made a tactical mistake giving me the 2 seats, I’d have bet 50 on 3, even possibly 4.
Perm any three from Strangford, Lagan Valley, Upper Bann, South Antrim. Depending on candidates, Sth Belfast, N Down are also possibles. Next layer down, if someone offers me good odds on Robbo losing in E Belfast to either Alliance or the UUP (4/1 upwards), I’d take them.
I learnt long ago that there is a fair bit of daylight between what the self-appointed cognoscenti (like yourself) on Slugger believe will happen on election day and the hard reality. Consequently, I made a pretty good killing on the Euros where Nicholson (and Allister) were completely written off by the various Dupe, Alliance and nationalist apparachniks and clueless pundits like Brian Walker on here.
If you want to cover your bet, might be worth your while putting a few bob on Jimbo in N Antrim, although given the all round obnoxiousness of Jr 3/1 at paddy Power, doesn’t appear too generous.
BTW “Moderate” “Unionist”,
I hope sending that Email to Mick Fealty hasn’t slipped your mind now that your first wave of giddy bravado has worn off.
I’ve got my confirmation back from Mick Fealty, how about you?
oneill,
Yor are indeed a great man for the blather and the enumerating of farmyard feathered creatures before their birth. I have indeed had a confirmation from Mick. You appear to be not only getting ahead of yourself but displaying distinct signs of over excitabiltiy – I suggest you calm yourself down as there is a long way to go yet. Having made a holy show of himself yersterday and embarassed the now clealy fretting Davey Cameron god only knows what Reginald the diminutive will get up to next.
..but of course I will watch what PP (the papal predictor) has to say with interest as I am a regular investor with ther quarefellah himself and do have just the slightest of tendencies to spend first and reflect afterwards.