The BBC have just announced that Eddie McGrady has announced that he is not going to stand in South Down at the Westminster election. The speculation is that the new SDLP leader Margaret Ritchie will stand; Sinn Fein have already selected Catriona Ruane.
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That scenario strikes me as being a bit too cynical. If true (about Ritchie) then I suspect Alistair McDonnell and his supporters might feel “shafted”.
1 Durkan appoints Ritchie as SDLPs only minister to increase her profile ahead of McGrady retiring.
2 McGradys chosen heir is Ritchie
3 Durkan considers that the SDLP leader should be based at Stormont asa MLA
4 McGrady decides he will stay on
5 Ritchie announces she will stand for election as Party leader.
6 McDonnell who fears he will lose South Belfast anyway is not going to resign a safe Stormont seat.
7 Ritchie wins leadership by approx 40 votes.
8 A month later McGrady decides he will stand down after all.
Good stroke politics but maybe just a wee bit too cute for delicate souls.
I can’t see this happening. Ritchie left her council seat under the SDLP policy to end “double jobbing”. Surely she couldn’t be both an MLA and MP, and to do so would be sheer hypocrisy.
Ruane..lol..shit on a stick vs. anyone. Hard to call
Looks like Ritchie’s hardening stance on a UI (and setting her party back 15 years) has been to build up this announcement.
I pitty the constituency as they are getting two lightweights to choose from.
It will be an interesting battle alright. Ruane has alienated so many people I am surprised that they have selected her. She is that rarity in NI politics: a SF vote loser.
Wouldn’t be surprised if Eddie McGrady’s decision forced SF into a re think. They will regard South Down as more winnable now and maybe Ruane will suddenly decide to spend more time with her family.
If Margaret runs and wins will she give up her Assembly seat? That would leave her leading the party from London, the very reason Mark decided to step down.
Very interesting.
According to the Bel Tel,
“The party declined to comment on speculation Ms Ritchie might seek SDLP permission to stand for the Westminster constituency.”
Sounds like she’s considering a go at Westminster although I imagine she would simply have to stand down as an MLA, in which case, would would become Minister for Social Development?
*who would
I think it makes sense for her to stand down as minister in order to give a profile to someone else, perhaps Conall McDevitt or Declan O’Loan.
It does make sense to progress the younger members through the party, but I honestly think Alban Maguinness deserves to be “promoted”. After all he’s an extremely competent and aware politician, despite having the charisma of a coffin lid.
A lot of unionists would have voted for McGrady, simply to keep Ruane (not SF) out.
He was an old bluffer who made a Westminster career out of Sellafield. Still no actual evidence of those 2 headed fish Eddie!
Mostly harmless.
A unionist cannot win the seat and neither can the hated Ruane.
Ritchie cannot lead an Irish nationalist party from Westminster.
Alban or Alastair, please step forward.
Enjoyed the 2 headed fish bit.
But aside from that, I have to say (and it pains me) I sam 100% behind Catrina in wanting the 11+ to be demolished (as a teacher who saw what it did to many children’s sense of self esteem – immoral).
But she went about the reform so badly! And is now the most hated one. Has no chance in wherever she stands. So why did SF select her?
Interesting times ahead now for the SDLP especially South Down which is regarded as the Jewel in the Crown
Ritchie as Party Leader will be nominated by “universal acclaim” of the party faithful to contest the Seat –
I think Sinn Fein will rethink their candidate selection and with Ritchie’s views on the Orange Order a lot of the Unionists will revert to their DUP / UUP roots
will be a close call
If Ritchie gets the nod to run for Westminster she will face a uphill battle – her rapport with members of the public is so so -she puts her self over as cold remote and hectoring and doesnt have the charisma that the likes of Gerry Fitt John Hume Austin Currie Paddy Devlin had in the early days
With several hundred votes difference between SDLP and Sinn Fein in the last Assembly Election in 2007 this all points to a dog fight in May
‘Ritchie as Party Leader will be nominated by “universal acclaim” of the party faithful to contest the Seat’ – the parties second seriously bad decision in a month.
‘I think it makes sense for her to stand down as minister in order to give a profile to someone else, perhaps Conall McDevitt ‘ – lets see if he can actually win an election rather than being handed a seat. He needs to earn a spot at the table.
‘I honestly think Alban Maguinness deserves to be “promoted”.’ – completely agree, he’s probably the most stable politician we have in NB and more than capable of gathering cross community support.
Sad to see Eddie go, if only because it reminds me of my own age; but it was inevitable. He’s served his constituents and his cause well. At his age, he deserves a bit of peace, quiet and recogition.
That said … Ah, c’mon!
The nominations aren’t open yet, so why the poison? Join the Party: put up your chosen white knight.
That said …
She can do the job. She’s a bright cookie. Why look beyond that?
I still think that Alban Magennis is being lined up for Chief Justice.
Eddie served himself and Downpatrick well…..the rest of the county was an necessary evil
He’s served his constituents and his cause well.
Well Malcolm, as a famous mathematician wanted on his tombstone.
At least he did no harm.
Still waiting on those Sellafield induced multi-headed fish. 30 odd years in the Mother of Parliaments. What a legacy! They can display the specimen (when found) in our new (£13 million) Ulster museum.
Brian Faulkner told me Eddie was a decent bloke and so he was. But Margaret Ritchie needs a cause, and she hasn’t got one. If SF replace Ruane she’s in trouble.
I think Ritchie is in trouble even if it is Ruane she is up against within the county she’s not exactly flavour of the month take Downpatrick out of the equasion and its hard to see where her other strong hold are….
She’l not get it in Ardglass or Kilough
She can as good as rule Newcastle, Castlewellan out
The mournes are not a strong position either
Kilcoo, Hilltown Mayobridge lol no chance… she’s her work cut out for her
SF are stuck with Ruane. They’re not really in a position to parachute someone in against Ritchie and it doesn’t appear that they’ve been grooming anyone with South Down to take from from Ruane – Willie Clarke has a low profile outside the constituency given previous form it would be unusual for SF to switch to a lower profile candidate no matter how toxic Ruane is perceived to be. The only viable parachutees that would have a punchers chance would be Maskey and O’Dowd and as SF are aiming for a 2nd seat in UB in the next Assembly elections you could probably rule him out.
But its inside the county that counts Clarke has a pretty rep all round within the county
sorry i meant a prety good rep
sorry i meant a prety good rep
I think the Rowallane factor will come back to haunt Maggie Ritchie – people in the Crossgar /Rowallane area were furious and disappointed that Terry Andrews a hard SDLP party worker at Constituency / Local Level was sidelined in a recent selection convention for Ritchie’s council seat in favour of her personal assistant Maria Mc Carthy –
People I think have long memories and Ritchie was never liked and especially more, now and from what i gather it was the people of Crossgar and its locality who put Margaret on the path to where she is today ,back in 1985.
Nothing has changed there ,one double jobber for another –
It seems that South Down pardon my pun will be a Battle Royal – it will be interesting to see how Ritchie will perform with SDLP workers thin on the ground and a voting public sick to the teeth with double jobbers and snouts in the troughs etc
people aren’t stupid and I think May 2010 is going to be a real eyeopener.
Double jobbing is not the issue that either you Dunumian or indeed the political classes think it is. It is not a big ‘on the ground issue’ at all.
2007 Assembly Results
SDLP 14,462 (31.4, -3.7%) 2 seats
SF 14,134 (30.7%, +4.2%) 2 seats
DUP 8,153 (17.7%, +2.7%) 1 seat
UUP 4,447 (9.6%, -8.6%) 1 seat
Green 1,622 (3.5%, +1.8%)
UKIP 1,229 (2.7%)
Alliance 691 (1.5%, +0.4%)
Cunningham 434 (0.9%)
UKUP 424 (0.9%, +0.4%)
Conservative 391 (0.8%)
Labour 123 (0.3%)
Last Westminister results
*Eddie McGrady (SDLP) 21,557 (44.7% -1.6%)
@Caitriona Ruane (Sinn Fein) 12,417 (25.8% +6.1%)
@Jim Wells (DUP) 8,815 (18.3% +3.3%)
@Dermot Nesbitt (UUP) 4,775 (9.9% -7.7%)
Julian Crozier (Alliance) 613 (1.3% +/- 0.0.%)
first thing is there dosnt seem to be many unionist voting for the SDLP going by these results, and SF arent as big a bogey man as they used to be. Boundary changes make the ward more nationalist and SF leaning, the revised assembly vote has less than 0.5% between the SDLP & SF. The revised boundaries also virtually rules out the “west tyrone fluke” of a unionist sneaking up the middle, appart from the personalities involved the deciding factor could be any SF internal problems that seem to be popping up all over the place, and of course voter apathy.
The thing about the double jobbing argument regarding Margaret Ritchie is that it would be somewhat of an irrelevance as come May most candidates in Sinnn Fein ( Ritchies direct competition)in the General Election will still be doubble jobbers.
McGuinness, Adams etc and Ruane would only be different because she’s not the local MP.
I don’t proport to know much about South Down but I would be very surprised if Ritchie didn’t retain the seat for her party. She’s hardly put a foot wrong and is pretty high profile for all the right reasons.
A party that avoids its leader getting a Westminster seat is ensuring increasing irrelevance and would make the Assembly look increasingly like the old Stormont where reality and modernism were largely absent.
Double jobbing wasn’t the problem as those who are only Westminster MPs are rarely there anyway. The issue was double salaries and expenses.
The MLA salaries but not the double expenses are being withdrawn under new legislation.
Double jobbing will not be a factor in the South Down seat for Westminster. Abstentionism and Education will. McGrady was sensible enough not to open his gob about the grammar schools, because he knew the electorate.
Ritchie will probably limp over the line because Ruane is so despised and incompetent. And there is a high regard for the local grammar schools.
The SDLP would easily win with Alban or Alastair.
Just keep schtum about academic selection.
Drumlin Rock
Your election figures are indeed very interesting but one thing jumps out at me which you maybe haven’t factored. where are the roughly 5500 odd votes that seem to be missing on the nationalist side of things between 2005 and 2007. That’s the people who didn’t bother to vote at all in the Assembly election.
That is the big question. In all reality the assembly results are not a fair measure when predicting Westminster results.
Going on the evidence you presented I would agree that it will be a close run thing but it will be knowhere near as close as the few hundred votes here or there that looking at Assembly result last time round might suggest.
I would say that the missing votes are ,in all likelyhood, mostly SDLP votes. I say this because SF only upped their actual votes by roughly 1500 from Westminster to Assembly.
The SDLP vote dropped by roughly 7000.
The deciding factor is turnout. Traditionally Westminster turnouts are a lot higher than for any other election. Primarily because thats all people see and hear about for months leading up to polling day.
I wouldn’t get carried away with Sinn Feins prospects. No matter who their candidate is. I predict an SDLP hold.
Anyone get the feel for what way SF support is on the ground? you hear of rumblings here and there across the country, but are there many in South down? and are they enough to effect votes, plus will apathy creep in to the Sf vote? like the only real reason a Shinner would vote is to stop the SDLP winnig and boost Catriona’s ego. neither of which seems a good enough reason to drag your ass out of bed for many I guess.
Drumlin
Wouldn’t take anything for granted. Eddie was part of the furniture here. Like an old sofa that wasn’t much use but no-one had the heart to throw out.
I suppose Margaret Ritchie is the least worst option.
Maybe Terry Andrews will stand for FF, just for the hell of it.
And we cant forget that John McAllister is going to gain all those “Conservative Catholic” votes
Actually it is a big unknown going into this election whether the “National issues” will factor on the door steps, in other words when the old UUP put on thier new Conservative coat will it fit and will it win voters or put them off, chances are being NI it wont make a big pile of difference, but no body really knows untill the big day comes.
We have the good people of South Down to thank for giving us Ruane.
Eddie
Now after a long service .Does anyone know what he stood for.
Double jobbing will not be a factor in the South Down seat for Westminster. Abstentionism and Education will.
Yeah right, nothing bugs nationalists more than abstentionism.
The only real issue for debate here is how many votes the SDLP win by.
Eddie
Now after a long service .Does anyone know what he stood for.
Not being Enoch Powell I suppose
Its odd that Caitriona Ruane is a liability. She has no……er baggage. And was seen as a departure from the usual SF type. Playing for Ireland at Tennis, kinda artsy image (dont mention Colombia).
The academic selection thing is a bit of red herring …there is no nationalist republican party in favour of selection and no Catholic in their right mind would vote UUP anyway……
But I am disappointed in McGrady and by extension Ritchie for the choreography of his retiring/not retiring/retiring all designed to facilitate Ritchie who is his protege.
Its stroke politics of the worst kind.
Typical of Fianna Fáil but somehow better is expected of SDLP. “Cute hoorism” that deserves to backfire.
As I mentioned in other threads SDLP has never taken up a seat in the Lords. As a retiring MP of 23 years he would on English terms be an obvious appointment….and perhaps because of my personal antipathy to McGrady (my reasons are unimportant)I have always though he would be at ease in the Lords.
If I was Sinn Féin in South Down, Id try to make SDLP uncomfortable about any post election thoughts of McGrady taking a Lords seat.
Of course Ritchies position would be “personal decision” or “we need more not less representaion and Eddie is experienced at Westminster”.
So Sinn Féin……please feel free to copy.
Fitzjameshorse
Yes good one.Make them very unhappy. I would say Eddie would love to sit in that horrible chamber
of unelected has beens.Catriona in humber view has done herself justice in tackling the Education brief, She could have been a bit more savy in presentation.
“She could have been a bit more savy in presentation.”
Uh, you think??
McGrady was a reminder, if ever it was needed, that the SDLP were never really more than the old tame Castle Catholic Nationalist Party which, blindsided by the Civil Rights Movement, was obliged to give itself a makeover. That some on here actually believe that they were the party of civil rights is a sour joke to those involved in that struggle who only ever saw the SDLP’s attempts to alternatively restrict its action or else take credibility for the very actions they decried once they proved popular. Opportunist fucking chancers to a man (and they were all men then, back in the day).
McGrady inherited control of East Down Nationalist Party (and with it control of Downpatrick U.D.C.) from his legendary Uncle Ned (also E.K. McGrady) who had stood against Faulkner when he first won East Down in 1949, which victory sparked off serious rioting in Downpatrick (my very first riot! Isn’t that sweet?) where the greater length of the hurley over the police baton proved decisive for a while and the volunteer Fire Brigade called out to help quell the rioters somehow found their hoses turned in the wrong direction drenching the cops.
E.K.’s older brother, Malachy (M.B. McGrady) apart from being senior partner in their accountancy practice (and associated insurance and building society agencies) also acted as chairman of Downshire Hospital Management Committee, the largest single employer in the area.
So all-in-all nationalist East Down at least and Downpatrick in particular were pretty much a McGrady fiefdom for pretty much all of the 20th century with Uncle Ned pretty much the leader of Nationalist politics since after WWI. It will be difficult for Ritchie to retain that level of support and I expect the bitterness over the Rowallene factor already ably covered by Nollaig a Chara, who also has a good fix on probable district loyalties, will prove to be her undoing and South Down can come into the Republican camp as it ought.
Well Mr Carr, I wont labour the point that I disagree with much of your analysis.
Any resididual hostility about the “Rowallane Factor” would I think be offset by the fact that she is now local girl made good.
The Rowallane factor, about which I knew only a little has indeed been covered above and an eye opener for me in some respects that adds to my own analysis that McGrady has pulled a “cute hoor” type stroke for Ritchie.
Of course I am undoubtedly influenced by my own negative feelings towards McGrady.
Whether SDLP supporters and voters look on this as clever tactics or a rather unpleasant “stroke” is the question.
What we have in South Down is a safe Nationalist/Republican seat.
We see SF-IRA closing the gap on the SDLP…and a demographic that is moving in direction of SF
We see the “resignation stroke”
We see local girl made good….which will be a mitigating factor in stemming the SF tide.
On balance Id still think that SDLP are favourites to hold the seat. But for me personally there is an unpleasant taste in the mouth.
McDonnell must be a very angry man….but he prolly knew it would happen anyway.
The problem with “stroke politics” like this is that you can only get away with it for so long.
Eventually the voters dont like it.
But there is certainly mileage in SF-IRA playing up the “House of Lords” factor or non-existent factor.
BBC reported that Ritchie has confirmed that she will be the candidate for Westminster. Speculation on her chances about to be aired in a few moments with Séamus McKee. She claims that if elected she will decline to take her salary as MLA and will hand over her Stormont ministerial role to a SDLP colleague.
I, of course, am hopeful that she will not have the opportunity to exercise these options as South Down comes to its senses and rejects the SDLP once and for all.
So Rory, she is in fact double jobbing after all the crap she gave about double jobbing. Fantastic start.
Don’t worry, Garza, she won’t be doing any double-jobbing if my predictions of a SF win turn out to be correct.
So I suppose in that sense you could say that the voters of South Down can help her retain her integrity – by refusing to vote for her!
I suspect she may get more Unionist votes than nationalist ones. Without them Ruane will win even though she is despised by the Catholic middle class.
Rory-did you ever get to meet Brian Faulkner?
He had no time for sectarianism and was an outstanding representative for the Downpatrick area.
If Ritchie does not win this seat it will be the end of her as leader.
We must remember that a large section of the SDLP don’t like her and to lose a safe seat (at least Durkan held foyle) will show how out of depth she is.
He had no time for sectarianism and was an outstanding representative for the Downpatrick area.
Yeah, internment was great and by no means aimed exclusively at Nationalism.
Nobody ever got to be unionist leader by playing the non sectarian card.
Faulkner was a dyed in the wool Orange bigot….just like Faulkner….who was forced by circumstances (and Britain) to re-ivent himself as a moderate.
While Trimble made his name at Drumcree
Faulkner had done the same on the Longstone Road forty years previously.
I never met Faulkner, Driftwood and the idea that “he had no time for sectarianism” would have come as a great surprise to the nationalists of east Down of my generation. He was after all the favourite of the right-wing of the Unionist party to replace O’Neill which he eventually did after O’Neill’s cousin, the dithering dodderer, Chichester-Clark was shunted off and was of course the architect of internment without trial over which he believed (with some justification) he had presided over with great success during the 1956-62 IRA campaign. This misjudgement led to the greater misjudgement that gunning down Civil rights marchers in Derry would put an end to street marches and protests against internment and led to the proroguing of Stormont when that proved counter-productive, resulting instead in mass support and a huge swell in recruitment to IRA ranks. Things have never been quite the same since somehow.
The most popular member of the Faulkner entourage in nationalist circles in East Down was his hunter, Canonball from which he was thrown and died while riding to hounds in 1977. For a time this horse’s popularity was eclipsed only by Arkle and the memory of Never Say Die, Lester Piggot’s first Derby winner on which the whole of Downpatrick betting fraternity (which was then closely equivalent to the male adult population, including the clergy) had wagered heavily following a confident ‘phone call from ” a cousin in England”.