“If ever there was a post to read whilst finding it hard to sleep it’s this one. ZZZzzz”

And then you woke up and answered it. Hope your sleep wasn’t too interrupted.

“Have you still not go the message that there will only ever be a United Ireland when the one million British citizens in the North East want it”

Ermm. Calm down Stephen. I said NI’s days were numbered, I didn’t mention a United Ireland. Oh, by the way, I was under the impression that any future Border Poll would not have to be unanimous.

“1. The constitutional position of NI remains paramount.

- Surprising that for Unionists isn’t it?”

Nope, just gently pointing out that there has, is and only ever will be one question up for discussion come election time. Not very normal that, Stephen.

“However, candidate selection should be based on who has the best chance of winning – not their religion.”

Aye aye, we get the message.

“Whilst a sizeable minority of the population want to live in another country…”

Well thanks for the laugh. You point out that Northern Ireland, a state that was designed to have a Nationalist minority, has indeed a Nationalist minority.

Albeit an increasing one.

Fortunatley not spin but true

It is clear that Owen Paterson acting in his role as Shadow Secretary of State hosted a meeting to attempt to sort out Policing and Justice to avoid problems for a Cameron government if elected, it may be the UUP and DUP strayed onto other matters, if they did that would not mean the SSOS agreed with what they said. The fact that none of the Conservative NI team was present underlines the fact that this was not a party political meeting but the SSOS acting as he should.

It is my understanding, contrary to weekend reports, that Owen Paterson has the full support of the Conservative Executive in NI and always had. For journalists to hide behind the term Senior Conservative is oportunistic jounalism, it is clearly apparent that not one Senior Conservative in NI would have made that statement.

Either way I suspect the candidate names will all be suspended about a week before nomination and a new set agreed.

Posted by Henry94 on Jan 25, 2010 @ 08:51 AM

I think Alex Attwood suggested that once on “The Folks on the Hill”. Something along the lines of the Irish Republican Alliance?

DSD:in these circs, couldnt advise you to come back!

The notion of single unionist monolith arising again is very unlikely in my view. The political reality is one aspect i.e. the submerging of the lesser talents of the senior UUP beneath the DUP talent ship and would be of serious concern to the UUP members concerned but there remains the issue that the DUP whilst it has widened its reach has not really become a friendly place to those of the moderate unionist bent. The attitudinal and world view of the DUP is still pretty fossilised and I just don’t see those in the UUP of a more secular and modernist outlook having a comfortable place in it. The UUP has room for the likes of me (well in theory but not actually!) and has someone like Alex Kane (a talent you missed out mentioning) in a senior position, the DUP would have problems finding space for a self confessed anti-monarchist, atheist as its PR officer I suspect.

In the short term a limited electoral agreement to give SB and FST a better run is worth it and in the interests of both parties and whilst we might not be moving in with the DUP there is nothing wrong with a quick fling as we still have some things in common.

I think the Conservative UUP alliance is under pretty serious pressure though I have to say. In my view the local conservatives always took a far too expansionist and self important view of the whole thing. The argument for a pact with the Tories is reasonable but the argument for the UUP maintaining its independence (i.e. its interests and sometimes NI’s, don’t necessarily always align with the wider Conservative party’s interests) remains and at this point a short term link with the DUP for the selfish local reasons of both keeping SF out of the FM office and knocking out 1 or 2 nationalist/Republican MP’s is pretty sound. Add into this mix the fact that I still don’t think the Con/UUP pact is worth losing Sylvia Hermon and the balance is tipping against it. Tough to see how the UUP extricates itself at this point and Reg and others have invested lot of political capital into it but ultimately politics is the art of the possible and the pragmatic and I think pragmatism will likely win out here.

looking at things from the TUV perspective alone, surely its best chance of survival and growth will be if a deal is done between SF and the DUP?

In relation to long term Unionist strategy it seems unlikely that there can be both Unionist unity and an arrangement with the Tory party although the suggestion of both being simulataneously possible is tactically very sensible.

Unionist unity would suit nationalists in my opinion. It would be worth a couple of Commons seats to have a Unionist block that could deliver.

But nationalist unity should be on the agenda too. The SDLP lack momentum and the Sinn Fein project is stalled. I think we need a new party that can take the best elements of both and ditch the baggage.

Of course that will annoy the extremists like the TUV and the opportunists in the SDLP who both graze in the political cracks and have most to lose

Orange Protestant Unionism carries the DNA of its own destruction and should be decommissioned as unfit for any political purpose.

It may continue to function as some form of club or male cult, but it makes a unitary irish state more not less likely.

Agreeing about what is wrong is not the same thing as doing something about it.

Male pacting makes you look nervous, and proves you are alone.

It is a symptom of political failure, not a recipe for success.

I am content that my real relationships with the UK do not need Ulster’s sectarian ‘Unionism’.

- Whilst a sizeable minority of the population want to live in another country the Unionist/Nationalist split is always going to take precedent over a Left/Right split.

This is spot on.

However….

The issue for people like myself is not the ‘head on’ challenge of Unionism over Nationlism, my issue is the growth of politics that provide opportunity and ‘product’ (see waht I did there?) for the electorate.

I keep banging on about the Scottish political model – in an ideal world it is where I would like to see Northern Ireland.

Those who are pro-union (and more importantly the growing number of people who are less than interested in the Nationalist Vs. Unionist battle) should have the opportunity to engage in left / right politics. Not to offer this to the electorate (regardless of that electorates religious or other beliefs)is to treat the electorate with ignorance and disdain.

Turgon,

A interesting piece and along with BobsBalls’ latest, containing much more nuance than Messrs Walker, Mallie and McDonald seem capable of at this moment. Your analysis of the potential dangers facing the UUP seems also seems sadly too accurate.

“Have you still not go the message that there will only ever be a United Ireland when the one million British citizens in the North East want it?”

Politics should be about persuading people, and there are many arguments (not least economic) against a United Ireland. Unionism, however, seems incapable of grasping this fact, and, as is reflective in your words, operates as a one-dimensional, one-trick pony.

As for the Shinners, they are quite used to, and quite happy, playing a long game. They know that demographics and immigration will deliver them their United Ireland.