Who will the UUs choose to run for South Belfast…
Slugger hears that Bob Stoker and Michael McGimpsey are the only candidates that will square off for the party’s South Belfast candidature for Westminster… That’s not a surprise, but given how McGimpsey bombed both in 2005 – losing a formerly safe UU seat to the SDLP’s Alisdair McDonnell conceding third place to a virtual unknown DUP candidate in the process – and then managed to chip even more off his total in 2007 it is a pretty poor back to the future scenario for the party. The Tory candidate, Peter McCann, is a recent arrival into politics (and possibly too Catholic for many in Donegall Pass, Sandy Road Row and Taughmonagh). Can he really expect to have a viable run at the seat?
Update: As DW points out down below, the selection meeting has not taken place yet (the first word I had last night was that it was in progress, but then turned it wasn’t)… Both the above are standing. Paula has not voiced publicly her position on standing. I am told there is one other considering the possibility of doing so. So although I stand by the thrust of my analysis below, I put my hand up on screwing up the significant detail of the facts of the story…This is a seat that needed a big name to get the UUs over the win line this time out… Handing it back to a pair of old hands would certainly give the DUP something to run at, given how last time Jimmy Spratt picked up 29.6% to McGimpsey’s 22.2%. Indeed Spratt used a piece in the South Belfast News today to remind the UUs they could do a deal over the seat, just like they used to do in the past…
But Spratt himself is unlikely to be good enough this time out either. Whilst he was only just short of the mark the last time, the TUV effect (however weak or strong it proves) will likely tip the seat even further away from him. But the DUP still have time to contemplate their precise response to the Ulster Unionist/Conservaitve choice here. Could they choose a game changing candidate?
McDonnell got 30.1% last time, marginally ahead of Spratt. But he has had the opportunity to dig in to the constituency which may help him in turn dig further into Sinn Fein and Alliance votes than he did in 05. Last time out he got little public sympathy from Sinn Fein’s leadership, and in the case of the Alliance they now have a sitting MLA in the constituency whose vote they will be very keen to preserve. So even for McDonnell it will be a matter of squeezing out votes from wherever he find get them.
Even if McDonnell is a notional favourite, I would not like to call the overall winner… Still without a deal with the DUP neither the Minister for Health nor councillor Stoker will take the seat back for the Ulster Unionists, which may be just as well, since the Conservatives began the day with this little number on the evils of double-jobbing:
“The Conservatives were the first party in Northern Ireland to call for an end to double-jobbing in Northern Ireland. Voters want full-time MLAs, MPs and MEPs and rightly believe they currently get a raw deal when some of their elected politicians split their time between Stormont and Westminster.
“We have introduced amendments to legislation that are aimed at ending double-jobbing by Northern Ireland politicians at Stormont and Westminster. They are also intended to ensure that all decisions on MLAs’ salaries, allowances and pensions are made by a third party, as at Westminster. We believe the current situation is wrong and should end.”
So if the seat is unlikely to change hands this time round, if the UCU-NF are planning a two phase play then neither Stoker nor McGimpsey make sense. The one new party player that had been in the frame, Paula Bradshaw, is now believed out of the running. But as the Tories’ battleground director Marion Little told Slugger earlier this year:
“This is not about one election. We need candidates who will speak to all parts of society. We’ve seen success in England come over two election cycles from candidates who were prepared to get down and connect with people outside traditional Conservative voting communities”
That leaves us with the possibility that McCann is the unlikely dark horse that breaks through the middle. It would be a risky strategy… One, because by backing an unknown it risks the DUP gaining incumbency first, ie before McCann has had time to get his feet under some of the more prosperous tables of south Belfast.
And two, it would be predicated on the far from proven assumption that the legendary Garden Centre Prod (those 150k who came out to vote yes in the referendum, but whom appear to have given up on politics ever since) will respond positively to the opportunity to vote for a post sectarian choice in a seat with a significant slice of wealthy Catholic middle class residents…
And yet, stranger things have happened at sea… At the very least, McCann would be a credible fulfillment of the Conservative party’s promise to desectarianise its offering in Northern Ireland… And a decent litmus test for any other party foolish enough to want to try and break the bonds of our tribal past…
should have been Bradshaw. New blood, cares about the community there, smart and a woman for goodness sakes!! I think Bob is an excellent councillor and mcgimpsey had his shot and should leave Westminster and stick with his good work in Health. Time to move forward… Paula you should reconsider.
If the DUP are so concerned about winning seats for unionism, irrespective of what party the candidate is from, why can they not just decide not to run in both F&ST; and SB? Both seats were previously held by Ulster Unionists and it is obvious that the only reason for the seats being lost to nationalism was by the DUPes splitting the vote. If the DUPes really cared about maintaining the union, rather than their “little Ulster” mentality, they would give way to the main unionist party in the U.K..
DW
I think the NI Tory UCUNF supporters who may have promoted this thread are more flustrated and indeed impatient with Reg Empey and the UUP selection procedure up to now.
I’m a member of the UUP.
My particuliar frustration is not over the timing of your selection, but the amount of leaks that flow from SB. But rather than argue about what should be private party business on an open forum please feel free to email me if you want to debate it further.
If you don’t trust the email I’ve supplied, contact Michael Shilliday and he’ll put you in touch.
Does anyone seriously think that either Stoker or McGimpsey represents a new thinking in unionism. Surely what is needed in SB is a candidate that can garner support from the Donegall Road, Sandy Row, Donegall Pass and Malone? Bradshaw could be such a candidate now. Shame if she feels that she has to wait for another election but then she knows as well as anyone the peculiar machinations of SB Unionist Association!
Paula Bradford all the way. She is THE candidate.
The others have had their day.
Whoops. I mean Paula Bradshaw all the way of course!
Maybe all these Sdlp voters itching to support ucunf are the direct descendents of those mythical creatures who liked nothing better than to while away a summer’s day watching an orange walk.
Jone,
More likely they are the ones who want to continue sending their kids to grammar school?
@ oneill: I’m a member of the UUP.
‘My particuliar frustration is not over the timing of your selection, but the amount of leaks that flow from SB. But rather than argue about what should be private party business on an open forum please feel free to email me if you want to debate it further.’
Oh! my selection, well well well , and who may I ask are you? What association and what position of authority do you have in the UUP Mr Importance?
Two alleged UUP members wanting to provoke an argument with me within a week on here- how bizarre.
I think I’ll leave it there, if it’s all the same DW. If you are genuinely interested in debating it further or even finding out who I am, then contact Michael.
Jone, that doesn’t quite explain the figures available from the Like & Times Survey.
oneill, its not that bizarre if you go around making Impertient personal remarks about fellow members on the internet.
.’as soon as you hear that, it’s a safe bet that once again the SB UUP has gone incontinent. DW, perhaps you should think about tightening up the collective colostomy bags rather than whinging at Mick for merely passing on whatever *information* was obviously intended to be passed on.’
And what figures are those from the always-credible life and times survey?
Well done Mick. On a quiet news day just mention the words South Belfast, light the blue(sic) touch paper and retire.
The bizarre UCUNF selection process might yet cause it to implode. Methinks the promise of a few peerages etc. may be necessary to make the dinosaurs stand down in favour of the young Cameroons. What fun if Cameron couldn’t deliver.
Once again, some prat comes up with the idea that the DUP should stand down in both SB and FST. Ridiculous. One seat apiece is a more than generous offer, with the DUP offering UCUNF first choice!
2005 S.BELFAST
Alasdair McDonnell (SDLP) 10,339 (32.3% +1.7%)
Jimmy Spratt (DUP) 9,104 (28.4%)
Michael McGimpsey (UUP) 7,263 (22.7% -22.1%)
2005 FERMANAGH/ST
Michelle Gildernew (Sinn Fein) 18,638 (38.2% +4.1%)
Arlene Foster (DUP) 14,056 (28.8%)
Tom Elliot (UUP) 8,869 (18.2% -15.8%)
Jone, you sound like you don’t believe the figures, can you tell us all why?
Hawk, is it me you are calling a prat? Are you going to attempt to tell us all why the DUPes are a bigger party in the United Kingdom than the Conservative & Unionist Party are? Do you care about the United Kingdom? I think you’re just a typical small-minded, small-brained little gimp, willing to follow any orders you’re given, be it by the grand old duke or the wife beater.
oneill,
It should be pretty feckin obvious who is doing all the South Belfast leaking.
slug:
CS – if I were Mike McG I would prefer to be an MP than an MLA and minister especially as part of the governing party. London is a fantastic city and Westminster has a buzz.
Do you think he’s as shallow as you are, going for a job because of the sightseeing potential ? And people wonder why everyone is so hacked off with politicians.
The bizarre UCUNF selection process might yet cause it to implode.
I’m waiting here for the games to begin, with a massive bucket of popcorn.
“My particuliar frustration is not over the timing of your selection, but the amount of leaks that flow from SB”
Maybe you ought to take that up with your buddy Geoff McGimpsey over at Bobballs
)
CS
“Do you think he’s as shallow as you are, going for a job because of the sightseeing potential ? And people wonder why everyone is so hacked off with politicians.”
Don’t be like that, CS. Its not about passive sigt seeing! It about taking part in Westminster – a big place with big opportunities. More exciting than Stormont – more power, more debate, less backward, better quality colleagues, bigger issues. You name it, Westminster beats Stormont hand down.
As Chairman and Elections Officer of South Belfast UUP I would like to take issue with the point re. leaks from SB UUP.
As far as I can see, there is no other person on this thread who is a member of SB UUP, and I am the first person on this thread from SB UUP to post. As such, I can’t see the validity of this point about ‘all these leaks’ and that ‘SB UUP has gone incontinent’ e.g. acc. to DW above!
This thread was started on a false premise i.e. that a SB UUP selection meeting was taking place. Yes – our internal selection process has now stated and the detail & dates of that process will remain confidential (at least as far as the SB UUP are concerned – leaks can of course occur from central figures in the party who also know the detail of this process).
BTW: Can I say to other UUP members on this thread (who are all non-SB members – I think!), to be considerate of the SB UUP situation and refrain from any heated, hasty, or ‘lack-of-thought’ comments.
Thanks Bill. Your contribution is much appreciated. I made my corrections to the original post late this afternoon. And my apologies. Although I stand by the general thrust of my own analysis.
Intelligence Insider: You seem to imply that because both SB & F&ST; were held by the UUP before, that the UUP have some sort of ‘God given right’ to hold these seats for ever. Are you suggesting we shouldn’t bother with elections i.e. that the S. Belfast UUP should just have a selection meeting, and whoever is selected should automatically become the MP??
It’s this sort of arrogance that annoys a lot of ordinary voters who want choice, and new choices at that!
Hitler had this view after the last German elections (1933) before the second world war i.e. that the Nazi party should just hold their seats for ever!, and that further elections were not required! – bit of a dramatic analogy I know!
No problem Mick – It’s only a minor point, and your mistake, as you say, doesn’t take away from the thrust of your arguments.
The main point of my post above was just all this stuff about SB ‘leaking’, & I can’t see & don’t see this happening, at least not from any of our members in SB.
Hitthevoice – “It’s this sort of arrogance that annoys a lot of ordinary voters who want choice, and new choices at that!”
Isn’t that what the UUP/Tories are providing in the next election by stadning in all 18 seats?
Isn’t it the DUP that is trying to limit the choice by doing a pact? Seems to me the DUP are the arrogant ones.
What I think intelligenceinsider is trying to say is that the UUP/tories are stadning in all 18 seats, the DUP can either deal with it and compete or pull out, either way its ok, even if we do lose.
Garza
I think we’re in agreement here. Your last point is quite correct i.e. The Tories/UUP say they are standing in all 18 seats, and if that is their policy then fine. Likewise other parties can stand in any seats they want to as well, if that is their wish. That’s democracy!
All I said was that Intelligence Insider should refrain from these silly arguments re. who held the seat before, as if this gives the UUP some sort of ‘claim’ to be considered as the main party to contest the seat now. Democracy is all about new choices, change, and seeking fresh mandates.
Thanks to Bill for posting, seems it all a non-story afterall and a whole lot of hot air. So far as I am aware an Election has not been called yet and no nominations have been sought by the electoral office, Ok the UUP & Conservatives seem to be leaving it a bit later than many would have liked but I’m not really that aware of other parties nominations either apart from incumbents, so how about a little patience and enjoy the festive season, we could have up to 6 months of this still to go!
Thanks Drumlins Rock.
Your say we may have six months of this still to go – actually it’s a little less than that, because the election will be 20 weeks from tomorrow (Thursday) i.e. 6th May 2010!!!
Really, Bill? Perhaps, then, you would you like to share that certainty with Dave?
Jackie McDonald should run as a Unionist unity candidate.
He has a softened image to non unionists due to his connection to the McAleeses and could go for the David Irvine approach which gained support even from the middle classes.
I doubt he could be outflanked for the loyalist vote except for the die hard UVF folk.
This would also help bring the UDA etc in from the cold towards mainstrem politics.
Also great fun on the ballot paper with Jackie and Allistair confusion.
I don’t just imply that the UUP held the seats before, history tells it.
Ps, Pete Whitcroft, are you talking about the same UDA that DUP leader Ian Paisley saluted when walking by their headquarters or a different one?
Ah but they weren’t illegal then, so it’s ok.
BTW
That’s a class name to give yourself, maybe I should call myself The Omniscient One or Batman.
Sorry couldn’t help myself.
No harm intended.
I think people should be unafraid to stand over their comments, but I suppose the greater good can be served by wearing a cloak from time to time.
And the Lord said unto Michael McGimpsey: “It is time to lead your people. Michael, come forth!”
And, as usual, Michael got it wrong and came third.
Next!
Such intensity on a play-off that never happened for the first stage of a selection process of the 4th party in NI for a seat in which they came third last team…..I would be extremely interested to know who the 4 Tories and 4 UUP bods on the selection committee are…would the UUP really tolerate English Tories being involved?
Dewi,
At No 23 page 1
“Seymour – this joint committee set up could sink you you know”
I’m intrigued by that. I am neither a prospective candidate nor an official. Maybe you were not making a reference to me.
Re your last comment. The names are not a secret.
Here are the names:
For the Conservative Party
Owen Paterson MP (Shadow Secretary of State for Northern Ireland)
Neil Johnston (Former NI Conservatives Chairman)
Jeffrey Peel (Former NI Conservatives Vice Chairman)
Paul Megarity (Chairman, North Down Conservatives)
For the UUP
Lord Maginnis of Drumglass
Danny Kennedy MLA
David Campbell (UUP Chairman)
Cllr. Mark Cosgrove (UUP Treasurer)
After Jeffrey Peel’s resignation, his position was taken, I believe, by Tim Lewis (current Chairman, NI Conservatives.)
“Seymour – this joint committee set up could sink you you know”
I meant “you” in the collective as in the project.
Thanks for the names – some pressure on these guys. What;s the latest on Sylvia?
Jeff Peel is on that committee!
Geeez—-wait for the fireworks!
Slug – read it all….
slug you awake yet? he was replaced, I get the feeling rather than people objecting to Owen the outside influence will be welcome, sometimes a view from outside can cut through the local crap.
As for the election date, I would love to know for sure as I have an overseas wedding to go to on 8th of may!
Oops – ok Dewi. Sorry guys for not reading it all.
Drumlin Rock – yes its great to have outsiders from NI on the committee, to counter parochialism.
Although the phrase democratic deficit springs to mind. The only say that local members have is if more than one approved candidate (UUP that is) tries for the same constituency. What say does the local Tory organisation have at all?
Local Conservative org would select the Tory candidate for UCUNF committee consideration.
Dwei – remember that NI is an incredibly tiny place, even smaller than Wales, so that everything is very very local even when done at an NI level. In these contexts, parochalism is an issue, and has been part of NI’s problems for a long time.
Bill White, thanks for your posts to clear up any misunderstanding in the thread.
I see another NI Tory Bob Wilson has jumped on the bandwagon attacking the idea of a pact between`DUP & UUP to save the SB seat going into the hands of the SDLP (A united Ireland Party) for a 2nd term.
DUP pre-occupied with parochial cultural battles
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/letters/dup-preoccupied-with-parochial-cultural-battles-14597824.html
I have this message for the NI Tories, get on your bike, you have no chance of winning the SB seat for the Conservatives. Interesting the number of YU’s (attending Queens) who have been brought on board to support their dear Tory buddies in UCUNF. May I remind you when the going was rough here during the 70’s 80’s & 90’s all the high diddle class garden center prods sent their little darlings across to Universities in the UK rather than have them mix with those nasty IRA/SF republicans at Queens University.
Those who held the fort here were the DUP, UUP, PUP and now TUV. We loyalists might have our differences but when the chips are down we will bunch together and fight our corner. We didn’t need a bunch of Tory Lundies then who stabbed us in the back with the Anglo Irish Agreement, and we sure as hell don’t need a few Burlington Club boys from Middle England to take over the UUP in 2010.
DW
SW you are being negative. It is good that folks of all classes are getting into politics again in so far as its a sign of normalising.
Of course ambitious people will on the whole not want to participate in politics, or go to QUB, in the bad bad daye when folks like Edgar Graham were being shot dead on Campus by SF-IRA just for being a unionist politician, cheered to the rafters by republican students.
Yes I admire those who were brave enough to be in politics and held the line in the 1980s. I wouldn’t have. But we have to also think positive about the fact that there are more people wanting to take part now. The future, not the past.
Drumlins Rock & Exile
I stick to my prediction of 6th May for the election date – I can’t see that Brown can go for any other date, + Look at the Odds: it’s now massively odds-on that it will be 6th May.
DW
“May I remind you when the going was rough here during the 70’s 80’s & 90’s all the high diddle class garden center prods sent their little darlings across to Universities in the UK rather than have them mix with those nasty IRA/SF republicans at Queens University.”
Oh dear oh dear.
First up, Queen’s University is actually in the UK. (Some unionism, that, excluding Belfast from the UK)
Secondly, surely it’s an advantage of being part of the UK that Northern Irish students can attend higher education right across the UK as part of the same university system.
You sound a lot more like a parochial Little Ulsterman than a true unionist.
We loyalists might have our differences but when the chips are down we will bunch together and fight our corner.
DW
Are you a “loyalist”?
Bill,
Paddy Power have a March election at 15/8, May 4/9.