Who will the UUs choose to run for South Belfast…
Slugger hears that Bob Stoker and Michael McGimpsey are the only candidates that will square off for the party’s South Belfast candidature for Westminster… That’s not a surprise, but given how McGimpsey bombed both in 2005 – losing a formerly safe UU seat to the SDLP’s Alisdair McDonnell conceding third place to a virtual unknown DUP candidate in the process – and then managed to chip even more off his total in 2007 it is a pretty poor back to the future scenario for the party. The Tory candidate, Peter McCann, is a recent arrival into politics (and possibly too Catholic for many in Donegall Pass, Sandy Road Row and Taughmonagh). Can he really expect to have a viable run at the seat?
Update: As DW points out down below, the selection meeting has not taken place yet (the first word I had last night was that it was in progress, but then turned it wasn’t)… Both the above are standing. Paula has not voiced publicly her position on standing. I am told there is one other considering the possibility of doing so. So although I stand by the thrust of my analysis below, I put my hand up on screwing up the significant detail of the facts of the story…This is a seat that needed a big name to get the UUs over the win line this time out… Handing it back to a pair of old hands would certainly give the DUP something to run at, given how last time Jimmy Spratt picked up 29.6% to McGimpsey’s 22.2%. Indeed Spratt used a piece in the South Belfast News today to remind the UUs they could do a deal over the seat, just like they used to do in the past…
But Spratt himself is unlikely to be good enough this time out either. Whilst he was only just short of the mark the last time, the TUV effect (however weak or strong it proves) will likely tip the seat even further away from him. But the DUP still have time to contemplate their precise response to the Ulster Unionist/Conservaitve choice here. Could they choose a game changing candidate?
McDonnell got 30.1% last time, marginally ahead of Spratt. But he has had the opportunity to dig in to the constituency which may help him in turn dig further into Sinn Fein and Alliance votes than he did in 05. Last time out he got little public sympathy from Sinn Fein’s leadership, and in the case of the Alliance they now have a sitting MLA in the constituency whose vote they will be very keen to preserve. So even for McDonnell it will be a matter of squeezing out votes from wherever he find get them.
Even if McDonnell is a notional favourite, I would not like to call the overall winner… Still without a deal with the DUP neither the Minister for Health nor councillor Stoker will take the seat back for the Ulster Unionists, which may be just as well, since the Conservatives began the day with this little number on the evils of double-jobbing:
“The Conservatives were the first party in Northern Ireland to call for an end to double-jobbing in Northern Ireland. Voters want full-time MLAs, MPs and MEPs and rightly believe they currently get a raw deal when some of their elected politicians split their time between Stormont and Westminster.
“We have introduced amendments to legislation that are aimed at ending double-jobbing by Northern Ireland politicians at Stormont and Westminster. They are also intended to ensure that all decisions on MLAs’ salaries, allowances and pensions are made by a third party, as at Westminster. We believe the current situation is wrong and should end.”
So if the seat is unlikely to change hands this time round, if the UCU-NF are planning a two phase play then neither Stoker nor McGimpsey make sense. The one new party player that had been in the frame, Paula Bradshaw, is now believed out of the running. But as the Tories’ battleground director Marion Little told Slugger earlier this year:
“This is not about one election. We need candidates who will speak to all parts of society. We’ve seen success in England come over two election cycles from candidates who were prepared to get down and connect with people outside traditional Conservative voting communities”
That leaves us with the possibility that McCann is the unlikely dark horse that breaks through the middle. It would be a risky strategy… One, because by backing an unknown it risks the DUP gaining incumbency first, ie before McCann has had time to get his feet under some of the more prosperous tables of south Belfast.
And two, it would be predicated on the far from proven assumption that the legendary Garden Centre Prod (those 150k who came out to vote yes in the referendum, but whom appear to have given up on politics ever since) will respond positively to the opportunity to vote for a post sectarian choice in a seat with a significant slice of wealthy Catholic middle class residents…
And yet, stranger things have happened at sea… At the very least, McCann would be a credible fulfillment of the Conservative party’s promise to desectarianise its offering in Northern Ireland… And a decent litmus test for any other party foolish enough to want to try and break the bonds of our tribal past…
Mick
Do you think you were being used by someone?
I am surprised that you would set up a thread where the essential facts had no basis.
There was no meeting.
It seems there are no applications as yet.
It seems PB is probably in, not out.
150 posts based on a set of false premises.
To whose benefit?
Churnalism lives
fd,
That’s always possible. I turn back a LOT more tips than I ever go public with for that very reason. And if I do drop one, I try not to hang about getting my mea culpa in.
That said, let’s just wait to see what happens next week.
Neither Stoker nor McGimpsey offers anything new.
McCann does, but who is he? You don’t just get votes for being a Catholic Unionist.
Bradshaw’s by far the best of that lot.
Mike @ 11:52 AM: ‘You sound a lot more like a parochial Little Ulsterman than a true unionist.’
Indeed and proud of it, both grandparents and family from both sides all signed the ULSTER Covenant 1912.
And what type of a Unionist are you Mike? A UCUNF, or a squeaky clean alliance member who has joined the NI conservatives, or are you a Unionist at all? Maybe a republican supporter of SF or SDLP who just enjoys mixing it?
Is Bradshaw not paid from the public purse to do a well-paid job in th voluntary sector?I’m not impressed that she spends her ‘working days’ on Slugger self-promoting for party political gain.
“Indeed and proud of it, both grandparents and family from both sides all signed the ULSTER Covenant 1912.”
Mine didn’t – they were “Gladstone was right” types.
DW, all my gread grandparents who were of age signed the Ulster covenant and I think you are totally wrong. I want to be part of union, not come semi-independent small ulster mentality which is quite close to a nationalistic attitude.
“DW, all my gread grandparents who were of age signed the Ulster covenant and I think you are totally wrong. I want to be part of union, not come semi-independent small ulster mentality which is quite close to a nationalistic attitude”.
Garza, then join the NI conservatives and see if you can help them win some MLA seats or local council seats at the next Assembly and Local council elections.
They have tried for 20 years and failed miserably. This UCUNF stunt is heading for the same failure. David Cameron can give Sir Reg a nice little job as cabinet office tea boy if he wins the next election when all this UCUNF is over.
“I say Reg dont forget the cucumber sandwiches next meeting you know John Osborne loved Oscar Wilde’s ‘The Importance Of Being Earnest’
Garza and Slug,
Don’t be DUPed by DW, he’s a troll.
slug:
Don’t be like that, CS. Its not about passive sigt seeing! It about taking part in Westminster – a big place with big opportunities. More exciting than Stormont – more power, more debate, less backward, better quality colleagues, bigger issues. You name it, Westminster beats Stormont hand down.
Nope. When it comes to Northern Ireland, our part of the UK is essentially ruled by decree by the Secretary of State and a couple of departmental underling ministers. And when non-NI matters are being debated, our politicians seldom ever chip in.
We’ve had rule from Westminster for the guts of 30 years. I think it’s left the place in a mess. I would rather be able to elect politicians to somewhere where they are properly accountable with a proper electoral system, and where they can make decisions closer to the coal face. And no, hard work is seldom “sexy”.
I still think your point of view about Westminster is essentially shallow. I suggest you get past the star-struck stuff and get with the reality that direct rule sucked balls for as long as it applied here.
BTW: Can I say to other UUP members on this thread (who are all non-SB members – I think!), to be considerate of the SB UUP situation and refrain from any heated, hasty, or ‘lack-of-thought’ comments.
The Politburo have spoken. I have to admit, though, I’m shocked to see a UUP party officer actually attempting to assert control.
DW:
Those who held the fort here were the DUP, UUP, PUP and now TUV. We loyalists might have our differences but when the chips are down we will bunch together and fight our corner.
I’m also impressed to see a unionist asserting that the DUP, UUP, PUP and TUV are all part of a broad collective unionist front. I better stand back in case the galloping hordes of unionist commentors coming along to disassociate themselves from that remark run me over.
Big Bad Bob:
Neither Stoker nor McGimpsey offers anything new.
You must be new here.
McCann does, but who is he? You don’t just get votes for being a Catholic Unionist.
Bradshaw’s by far the best of that lot.
I have nothing against Paula, it would be cool to have a younger MP with a fresher perspective than some of the others in the UCUNF. That said, what you said about Catholic unionists also applies to female unionists. The crusty old fuckers that comprise most of the UUP grassroots won’t have a bit of it, not if they think that SB is in any way winnable.
CS we will have to differ.
I retain my view that a lot of people who had a choice between being an MP in Westminster and a local MLA would opt for the latter, myself included.
I know where I’d rather work and what I think as to the relative interest of the issues (not to mention the relative quality of the debate) comparing Westminster and Stormont.
I am not here talking about inputs into NI related business but into bigger aspects of government policy: cultural, economic, social & foreign.
(The merits of direct rule versus devolution is a different question; I have always believed in devolution on the whole though it can result in parochialism if one is not careful.)
[Typo corrected]
CS we will have to differ.
I retain my view that a lot of people who had a choice between being an MP in Westminster and a local MLA would opt for the former, myself included. (I think this is the issue in hand).
I know what job I’d prefer and what I think as to the relative interest of the issues (not to mention the relative quality of the debate) comparing Westminster and Stormont.
I am not here talking about inputs into NI-specific business but into bigger aspects of UK government policy: cultural, economic, social & foreign.
(The merits of direct rule versus devolution is a different question; I have always believed in devolution on the whole, though it can result in parochialism if one is not careful, and the current set up is not an especially good advert for it.)
CS we will have to differ.
The difference being between the idea that local politics can work with the right motivation and people (my view), and being elected to a “sexy” parliament where you have limited scope to effect anything (your view).
I am not here talking about inputs into NI-specific business but into bigger aspects of UK government policy: cultural, economic, social & foreign.
I suggest you need to do a bit of research. Start by reading up on the system of whips.
CS – let us not presume each other is stupid.
As a Roman Catholic, I hope the candidate is Peter McCann, as I want to vote for a national government on national issues, and I think that the Conservative Party under David Cameron’s inspired leadership is the only way to get rid of this tired and discredited Labour government. And bring non-sectarian politics to Northern Ireland.
I would much rather do that than vote for a socialist like Alasdair McDonnell who will take the Labour whip and support Gordon Brown. As Peter McCann is a Roman Catholic, like me, I will be happy to vote for him.
Many of my Roman Catholic friends and neighbours are saying that to me, at the golf club and after Mass.
Better run, the wife is coming up to the study with a gin and tonic.
Because of my “sexist” and awareness (of which I am conscious I am unlike most sluggerites), I simply have to flag up the lack of analysis of Anna Lo as a candidate in S. Belfast.
who’s anna lo? the black one?
Malone Road Roman Catholic, come on pull the other one, you are probably one of Jeff Peels buddies in the http://conservativehumanist.net/ ‘If you are genuine why dont you join the four SB Conservatives. They are running out of authors to write to the Tele attacking any pact between the DUP & UUP over a joint Unionist candidate for SB.
Better still, join them and you could be their first choice to stand for MLA at the next assembly elections.
As a Roman Catholic
Many of my Roman Catholic friends and neighbours are saying that to me, at the golf club and after Mass.
It’s good to know someone has a sense of humour.
CS at 12 above states there is sexism within the UUP. I have no direct knowledge of that but it would be a reasonable assumption based upon the sex ratio of current political representation.
There was sexism within the Conservative Party until relatively recently. The story of Margaret Thatcher, recently broadcast on TV, is a reminder of that. However, even with sexism, if a lady is strong enough and impressive enough, she will get nominated as Margaret Thatcher did and as presumably Lady Sylvia Hermon did.
I cannot gainsay what UUP SB officials will be thinking. If I were one of them I would be asking myself who is more likely to impress the joint committee. From the point of view of the four Conservatives on the committee, there is no doubt that they would favour Paula Bradshaw over either of the afore-mentioned male politicians.
I also believe that if Paula Bradshaw was nominated, she would be the strong favourite to secure the nomination by the joint committee. I also believe that she would have very good prospects of winning the seat.
Since when had selection got anything to do with the genuine merits of the candidates? It’s all about who controls/has allegiance of branches in the association.
This would make McGimpsey a cert to get on the short-list. Stoker has been able to ‘materialise’ a branch for such purposes in the past. I think Stoker’s aim is about ensuring he is seen as one of the big beasts of the association with his eyes more on the 2011 Assembly elections rather than the 2010 Westminster.
There is an anti-McGimpsey section in South Belfast and it should be big enough to get one of the two nominees. PB’s hopes probably rest on appealing to them and that being enough to keep her in front of Stoker.
However, many of that section are particularly keen on a pact so in the absence of that they may simply not bother taking an interest in the selection as they view it as a waste of time. PB could try to appeal to their pro-pact sentiments to gain their support but that would make it more likley the Tories block her later (unless IJP can call in some favours).
Also there is apparently a 4th name going to be in the hat and that will make it more complicated, splitting the anti-McGimpsey camp. If the vote is a single one then Stoker should come in second in such a scenario. If it is a process of elimination until two are selected then PB or the 4th could squeeze out Stoker, unless McGimpsey lends some of his support to him to keep him ahead of the other two.
Not much accurate about your comment CS. David McNarry became an MLA in 2003 and ran in STrangford in 2001. And a good number of UUP MLA’s standing for parliament committed to stand down from the assembly if elected.
wrong thread!
Mick here is UCUNF south Belfast candidate latest
Catholics to battle each other in historic Belfast election
Catholic unionist to contest seat against Catholic nationalist
*
* Henry McDonald
* The Observer, Sunday 20 December 2009
* Article history
The way has been paved for a historic electoral contest in South Belfast that will pit a Catholic unionist against a sitting Catholic nationalist MP.
The former lord mayor of Belfast and veteran Ulster Unionist Bobby Stoker yesterday ruled himself out as a candidate, while the Observer has learned that health minister Michael McGimpsey will not fight the Westminster seat.
The absence of the UUP’s major figures at the general election clears a path for the Conservative and Unionist candidate Peter McCann. A former BBC senior executive in Northern Ireland, McCann is a Catholic from the west of the city.
The absence of an experienced unionist with strong links to the area is a boost for sitting SDLP MP Alasdair McDonnell. If the Tories’ candidate is the only one to run on the UUP-Conservative ticket, it is understood that the Democratic Unionist party will stand a rival, in all likelihood the former police officer and councillor Jimmy Spratt.
Councillor Stoker, who has a large support base in the Donegall Road, Village and Sandy Row areas, said: “As a matter of principle, I will not be standing. I was not mindful to stand under a joint Conservative-Ulster Unionist ticket, but I will canvass for the party.”
One source close to the Ulster Unionist leadership claimed that McGimpsey was also reluctant to stand as a joint Tory-UUP candidate. “It leaves the party with the Conservative candidate Peter McCann with a near clear run to stand on the joint ticket. And that means that, for the first time in Northern Ireland’s history, we will have a pro-union candidate who is a Catholic standing against a nationalist MP who is a Catholic,” he said.
A spokeswoman for the UUP said no one could comment as there was an “ongoing selection process” taking place. She said the decision would be taken in the middle of January.
“And that means that, for the first time in Northern Ireland’s history, we will have a pro-union candidate who is a Catholic standing against a nationalist MP who is a Catholic”
Times are a changing!