Adams “trapped by circumstances that are arguably of his own making”
The Irish Times catches up with the news of Dublin Cllr Louise Minihan’s resignation from Sinn Féin – and Monaghan Sinn Féin Cllr Matt Carthy says that she should honour a pre-election pledge which “states that if we leave Sinn Féin for whatever reason we will give our seats back to the party.” Meanwhile, via Newshound, in Village magazine, taking Gerry Adams’ World Tour for Irish Unity as a starting point, Ed Moloney argues that the signs are of a party in decline.
There are some persuasive reasons given for Sinn Féin’s decline. One says that once the St Andrews deal was done and the IRA’s guns embedded in cement, a major inducement to vote for Sinn Féin south of the Border – to keep peace alive – had evaporated. Another that it has to do with Sinn Féin’s ideological flip-flopping and lack of fixed beliefs. The move to the right after the disaster of 2007 in the search for a more moderate, less radical image was such a transparent ploy that it made it impossible for Sinn Féin to tack back in the wake of the economic collapse. Such antics invariably fail to impress the voter while disillusioning the grass roots activists. There is no doubt these were both important factors in Sinn Féin’s southern demise but history may judge that the real cause of the party’s woes was the leadership’s addiction to playing the IRA card for so long in the Northern peace process.
Here’s what you said, Ken. The first quote is from Moloney’s article.
“2. that Northern success means nothing and would be given up for a tiny amount of success in the South.”
Ah, so that’s what you meant to say.
Of course, it’s not what Moloney said, but there you go.
Comrade
I am not in the UUP…but their chances are vastly superior to yours and I also suspect you won’t have to wait much longer.
‘We’re the not sectarian party’ is no longer a vote winner, people really expect more in the 21st century.
Pete
The important bit is the last bit. I am pretty sure that de Brun finishing third would be a disaster much worse than Mary Lou narrowly missing out for SF. That would be a full scale crisis, rather than a carefully expectations managed result.
Given the choice, I’d guess they’d prefer Mary Lou, given her position in the opranisation, but that isn’t at all the same thing. And furthermore, you are quoting narrowly and out of context. The full paragraph is:
To all of this, Sinn Féin loyalists will undoubtedly cry: ‘Well, what about the vote in the North?’ Bairbre de Brun’s performance looks impressive on the surface but her topping the poll was the result of DUP in-fighting – and this in an election where a protest vote usually costs nothing – and not because of anything Sinn Féin did. Furthermore her victory reinforces the impression created by the Southern results, that Sinn Féin is becoming what it really always was, a Northern party, not an all-Ireland party. The truth is, as one former member commented, very simple: ‘They’d gladly have Bairbre finish third if it meant Mary Lou would hold on to her seat
The example is not used in isolation. It is used as a rhetorical device to effectively dismiss the entire Northern position out of hand. And he’s wrong to do that, whether or not SF were helped by Unionists splits or not. That’s a very solid results, given the things that have happened sice the last Assembly election.
Tthe fact that he can is testament to SF’;s dominance. So, you know, keep trying. Or preferably, not.
Can’t remember who it was that once said that ALL political careers end in failure.
sorry to be coming to this so late but;
SF made a choice in 2007 that was built on a lie, a lie sold them by the British and Irish Gov and to some extent the press. the lie was -”do a deal with Paisley and the whole world will be at your feet!”
THe reality was somewhat different – particularly in the South the reality was – “do a deal with Paisley and we the Southern Electorate will no longer feel the need to vote for you out of guilt”
For the last 10 – 15 years the Southern electorate have been persuaded to vote for SF to boolster the peace process because they felt guilty about abandoning the northern nationalists in 1921 and more recently in 1969. So now that the northern nationalists are on their feet again able to fight their own battles etc there is no need for the Southern electorate to bother.
Adams was sold a pup and without a credible strategy to really become involved in Southern politics wrapping the tricolour around his shoulders and talking about how bad the unionists are is irrelevant now. THus the demise.
SF are a northern party only a northern party and are only relevant in the north – amazingly more of thier elected representatives in the South are beginningto realise that!
Paul
8.Pat you are arguing with an unbalanced man who believes that he invented an algorythym that spells out that Gerry is the living anti-crist, literally a religous nut
I am greatly offended as I am not religious at all. In any case my numeric alphabet caculates Gerry Adams and Ian Paisley at 666 and cannot be disputed.
Why Gerry Adams is the Antichrist!
First of all, I believe that Gerry Adams is the Antichrist because of the coincidence that his name comes out at 666 on my numeric alphabet, a numeric alphabet that I discovered during my years at St Columb’s College in Derry and further investigated during my years at University College Galway. If his name didn’t come at 666, using some reasonable means, then I would not believe that he is the Antichrist. He would simply be to me just another delinquent who leads a very large conspiracy to undermine Ireland.
Second of all, due to another pertinent coincidence his name contains “Adam”, the name of the first man, and from a theological point of view, this adds much to the basis of him being the Antichrist. Adam coincidentally means ‘man’ in Hebrew, and the number of the beast is specifically described as “man’s number” (Rev 13:18).
These are extraordinary coincidences and not to dismissed by any means by any intelligent observer of matters theological.
The apostle Paul wrote: “For as in Adam all die, so in Christ all will be made alive” (1 Cor 15:22). Adam therefore symbolises death, and thus the question must be asked, is there significance to the ‘Adam’ in Gerry Adams’ name? Does Gerry Adams, the effective leader of the IRA’s republican movement, symbolise death?
The descriptions of the beasts in the Book of Revelation are interesting.
‘The inhabitants worshipped the first beast, whose fatal wound had been healed,’ (Rev 13:12). Coincidentally, Gerry Adams was shot and wounded in 1984, but recovered. Afterwards, he became Sinn Fein president and one of the foremost politicians in Northern Ireland. The use of violence for him is a matter of tactics. That is a matter of fact and record. Gerry Adams has not stepped away from violence. He believes in his own words that “there is a time for peace and a time for war”, mocking the Prince of Peace and equating Christ with the Antichrist, good with evil.
The first beast, who is said to be the Antichrist, is prophesied to have “seven heads” (Rev 13:1), which is coincidentally the number of heads on the IRA army council, including Gerry Adams’ allegedly.
“Who can make war against him?” (Rev 13:7). The IRA has been described as ‘the most sophisticated terrorist organisation in the history of mankind’. Their structure makes it impossible for a conventional army to defeat them
Gerry Adams fulfilled another prophecy during the run-up to the 2007 Assembly election campaign in the North of Ireland. This involved him requesting the use of Clonard Monastery (Roman Catholic) church in West Belfast for a political meeting discussing his party’s policy. He still believed that armed struggle was a legitimate means of resolving differences.
When Gerry Adams took to the altar of Clonard monastery while his beliefs were in conflict with Christ’s teaching, he was proclaiming himself to be wiser than God and better than Jesus Christ. He was in logic proclaiming himself to be God.
“[The man of lawlessness or the Antichrist] will oppose and will exalt himself over everything that is called God or is worshipped, so that he sets himself up in God’s temple, proclaiming himself to be God.” (2 Thes 2:3-4)
I’m only now getting back to this blog after yesterday’s posts and counter-posts. John East Belfast and Pat the Baker were critical of my posts on this and another thread, and so I will briefly respond, hopefully without taking up too much space and detracting from the issue of the purported imminent demise of Sinn Fein. Other posters, to be fair, such as Comrade Stalin, expressed support for allowing Americans to post here on Irish affairs.
Comments by Americans are not welcome it had been stated by Pat the Baker, and I responded that our money and blood have been. That was a reference to the contributions of Americans in WWI and WWII, and while a cliche, nonetheless, an historical fact, which I think Europeans and Brits sometimes fail to remember.
Along those same lines, Americans did make serious financial contributions to Eamon de Valera during his USA fund-raising tour at the time of the Irish War of Independence. We have always had a stake in Ireland, and the diaspora of Irish who settled here, and their progeny, deserve better than to be summarily dismissed.
On one particular point, off topic, but posted here as rebuttal to one of John East Belfast’s earlier jabs, the geographic relationship between the Arydone Road shops and the Glenbryn Estate was not a throw-away comment. When unionists castigate the “recreational rioters” on the Ardoyne Road, they should keep in mind the rioting that went on for months only a few blocks away. Keeps things in perspective.
*****
As for Sinn Fein’s purported demise, Mark Twain, an American author, probably put it best when discussing a news account of his reported death. Twain said to the effect that the news account of his death had been greatly exaggerated.
Sinn Fein can and will continue to dominate the north, as the unionist electorate remains splintered. After the next assembly election, Sinn Fein will most probably be the largest, single party, and under the GFA and St. Andrew’s, be entitled to appoint the First Minister. With Martin McGuinness likely to assume that post, it is worth noting how far nationalism and republicanism have come from that dark day in Derry, 30 January 1972, when Mr. McGuinness was IRA second in command.
The south is a different animal, and hopefully it was not too simplistic, even for an American observation, to have said so in my earlier posts. The south does not share the urgency that the north has to change the northern society, and why should they. Life has been good in the 26 counties, the current economic downturn notwithstanding. But that very downturn should have meant a better showing for Sinn Fein in both the EU and 2007 general election.
The loss of Mary Lou McDonald’s seat can at least be attributed in part to the downsizing of her EU constituency. And, perhaps the economic downturn had not yet hit with its full force in May 2007.
Sinn Fein, nonetheless, did place 4th in percentage of first preference votes in 2007, although still far behind FF and FG. I would not want to be the reporter reporting on SF’s demise. Sinn Fein, like Mark Twain, may well have the last laugh.
Oldruss
You’re just reflecting a general theme among the British and American circles that Sinn Fein can’t be allowed to collapse like the DUP as they might perceive it better to return to the killing.
I think you may be CIA and that that may reflect current CIA thinking but we are the people who have to live here and when we smell a rat on board we will throw him over board before our entire society is wrecked by an cancerous indifference to violence because they subtly threaten to go back to their old ways if they don’t get what they want.
Let’s wait and see what the next assembly election in the six counties brings. I am of the opinion, as I said, that SF will be the largest, single party, and will nominate Martin McGuinness as First Minister.
That doesn’t sound as if they’re collapsing.
As for your speculation that I’m a CIA plant, I’m not sure what you’ve been ingesting, John, but whatever it is, you might want to consider going a bit easier on the stuff.
posted by Kathy C
Hi all,
Sinn Fein during the early 9o’s began implementing a plan in the US to schuttle any discusion that were questioning adams and mcguiness and then kelly’s approach. It was to mock and ridicule and most importantly question the rights of the Americans to comment on what was happening in the north. And of course…then turn it around and attack what the US has done in the past re…American Indians, wars and the like. This was an orcharstrated plan to devert any questioning of what adams/mcguiness/kelly was doing
HERE’S the interesting part. They put in denis donaldson to the US to implement this plan…and today some of it’s tones are even seen in this thread. Now for those who don’t remember who denis donaldson was….he outed himself as a british agent and was later killed. Adams had a press conference to say that he was kicked out of the party….BUT and this is a big BUT….today when Americans question the path sinn fein is on….the Denis Donaldson approach is used…attack—mockk and question the inteltigence of the Americans and then the final piece….attack the America motives in everyting under the sun rather than what is going on in sinn fein.
Oldruss
As for your speculation that I’m a CIA plant, I’m not sure what you’ve been ingesting, John, but whatever it is, you might want to consider going a bit easier on the stuff.
I didn’t call you a CIA “plant”, and you seem to be using classical CIA tactics in order to discredit my opinion, i.e, ingesting.
Your general theme would be fine too if it came from an Irish American with Sinn Fein sympathies but you seem to be portraying yourself as a neutral who believes rationally that Sinn Fein are doing fine and no problem lies ahead. If you were, how would you know?
I put it to you again that you are CIA and you have an agenda to protect Sinn Fein from imminent collapse and the ending of the peace process. As Hilary Clinton said on the news tonight, the success of this peace process sends out a signal that other peace processes can succeed with dialogue. Only you know very well that the success of this peace process is dependent on Sinn Fein being perceived as getting its way – it is based on an evil and in the longer run it is better that Sinn Fein are dislodged from their position of leading party and replaced by a party that actually believes in all the things say they believe but don’t really.
Re: Irish citizens joining the British Army as being of any significance one way or the other.
Here are some “silly bugger” points.
This week 600 new recruits from the Caribbean are arriving to join the British Army.
The Commonwealth is being scoured for more recruits.
On the British Army web site, Citizens of Ireland are given as a separate category of sourcing. This would imply that All Ireland has one Irish citizenship.
Increasingly it appears that British casualities in Afghanistan often come from Third world countries.
The Irish Army has, and always has had, a substantial % of members from Northern Ireland. Of course for any person with a liking for a military career the numbers here would be quite limited compared to foreign armies.
Armies always have always used mercenaries, whether official or unofficial.
And while I’m at it, I often come across these anti-American comments around these parts. They display such a puerile attitude. For one thing, if anybody in the USA has direct ancestors from Ireland they are entitled to Irish citizenship. This is only right, and I consider such people as fully Irish, just as you have people in North America who will say “I am American first and Scottish, Italian, Jewish, African second.”
They are probably more “pure” Irish than some here. More importantly, they love Ireland.
[i]Comments by Americans are not welcome it had been stated by Pat the Baker..[/i]
Please point out exactly where I directly/ indirectly state, or even imply, that. For all the remarkable traits which Americans have repeatedly demonstrated they possess – most of them good, some not so good – I never thought the ability to wallow in self-pity was one of them.
[i]..that was a reference to the contributions of Americans in WWI and WWII, and while a cliche, nonetheless, an historical fact, which I think.. Brits sometimes fail to remember.[/i]
Utter nonsense. And offensive nonsense at that.
oldruss: That was a reference to the contributions of Americans in WWI and WWII, and while a cliche, nonetheless, an historical fact,
Fact; but irrelevant to most of the nationalists here, who follow a tradition that was neutral towards the allied side in both wars. In WW2 they put their faith in the magnanimity of the victors, and got away with that gamble.
Comrade Stalin
I agree with you that Sinn Fein’s strategy of gaining power/influence North and South to pursue their United Ireland aspirations is failing badly.
This is due in no small part to the Economic recession when people have a lot more to think about.
However, as I said earlier, as a Sinn Fein outsider – I feel they need to look at their leadership, party structure and tactics.
However, with regard to the North, you say that their only achievement has been staying in power -surely the first and most important objective of any political party.
I would accept that they have certainly messed things up particularly education and wasted time in issues such as the ILA which frankly, speaking as a Nationalist myself, are not even on my radar.
However, one main achievement has been simply keeping the DUP in check! I have no doubt that the likes of Dodds, Campbell + Wilson would just love to bring in a raft of measures that favour the “loyalist” community over Nationalists.
I certainly think that Sinn Fein could have played things better. However, they’ve done a whole lot better than the SDLP who, over the years, have been foolish enough to believe the words of the DUP as opposed to their actions.
Also, I think you’ll find that (as David Vance has commented) the upcoming visit of Hilary Clinton is designed to push the devolution of P+J.
I’m not denying that Sinn Fein have played this badly in the past. However, it’s now the DUP who are in a bad position with the UK, US + Irish govts on one side and the TUV on the other.
In the current economic climate, the UK govt holds ALL the financial cards over NI with it’s ridiculous dependency on state handouts.
While Sinn Fein certainly have their problems at the moment – they, as you have conceded, are not in short-term trouble. In fact, in my opinion, they are not even in long-term trouble. There simply is no credible opposition for the Nationalist vote – the SDLP are an aging, decling joke and Eirigi are no real threat. The only threat to Sinn Fein is Nationalist voter apathy.
I certainly agree with you that they need to re-evaluate thir current ‘game plan’ as it is not (in my opinion) moving them any further toward their objectives. I think that they need an internal re-organisation (along the lines that Chris Gaskin suggests), new leadership and to re-evaluate their tactics in order to pursue their objectives.
They also need to recognise that the current economic climate has altered the situation in a dramatic way and reconsider their proposed timescales accordingly.
However, in terms of being in power in the North, they have just topped the Euro poll by a country mile and have an excellent chance of being the largest party in the next NI assembly.
Despite Pete’s frequent attempts to manufacture a Sinn Fein meltdown, it’s just fantasising on his part. They have their difficulties but no more than any other NI party and less than most.
Sinn Fein are the largest Nationalist party by far and will continue to be so well into the future.
John O’Connell’s law:
I am right and that fact cannot be disputed.
Wise up John.
If anyone wants my source, read comment #8 and weep.