Election round-up, marks out of ten
So it’s all over, time to pick over the bones (I’ll have a look at the predictions competition tomorrow). So how about a marks out of ten thread for all the candidates based on today’s result.
(mine below the fold – add yours, dispute mine etc.)
Dark horse Jim Nicholson
10 out of 10
Broadly considered in a last place battle and at risk to Maginness but in the end he came through as 2nd elected and increased his share of the vote.
Boy Wonder Steven Agnew
10 out of 10
I suspect most, including the Green party, would have been happy with them doubling their vote and getting 10k. He over trebled the vote from last time and boosted the actual vote – something no other party managed
Jim ‘The Voice’ Allister
10 out of 10
Never a serious threat to win but he confounded almost everyone by polling 66K and forcing the DUP into real difficulties. A credible marker for the future.
Alban ‘close shave’ Maguinness
7 out of 10
Never really in with a shout but he was there to the last and kept what the SDLP had after a long period of decline
Bairbre ‘topper’ de Brún
6 out of 10
While poll-topping is a very good result for the optics it was only possible through Unionist vote spread. She dropped her vote in % and real terms.
Ian ‘Vegetable’ Parsley
5 out of 10
Despite Alliance wanting to compare this election to 1999, I compare it with Gilliland in 2004 and they didn’t manage any real movement other than back.
‘Desperate’ Diana Dodds
3 out of 10
From poll toppers to chasing the last seat in a mere five years. Vote shredded and now facing real competition on two fronts.
Full marks IPJ for coming on to this thread. I thought APNI would do better in this election.
Your party has gone backwards from the Assembly election and with the Green vote up by so much it is obvious that there were votes for you that you just didnt tap into at all.
Dont get me wrong it was not a bad performance and the party can hide behind ‘the best euro vote since 1979′. I am a SF supporter and I am more than happy to concede this wasnt a spell bounding election for us – in fact I thought it was low key and a bit dull.
Anyway IPJ it could be worse – you could be a lodger in the Robinsons or Dodds house tonight!
Well, it’s just a small point, LTU. We rant about the lack of engagement with politicians. We want to encourage them to work with web 2.0, as an add-on to their usual activities.
We yearn for them to pick up new media, and bemoan when councillor.info doesn’t work. And yet here’s an opportunity to speak to a candidate – and ok, so he’s not elected, he’s not topflight, such as it is in Northern Ireland.
And the best you can do is intimate he’s a spacer? Frankly, regardless of his party, and I didn’t EVEN give fourth vote to them, I think it is to be welcomed.
But sure, roll you on there, LTU. Your rants cause me some amusement. It’ll pass the time.
Conquistador
Did we hear it first on Slugger? Where is Cllr Dr Farry going?
LTU, you definitely remind me of that line at the end of “Good Morning Vietnam” about the guy being in dire need of a blowjob.
“I’m a very friendly lion called Parsley”
There is no future in the APNI herb garden.
Did we hear it first on Slugger? Where is Cllr Dr Farry going?
Not anywhere I would imagine. All Parsley has to do is stand as his running mate and outpoll him
IJP should have been clearer about the Lisbon Treaty. He never made it clear whether he supported it or rejected it. He told us the pros and the cons.
That cost him a preference from me.
Just home from Larne Council AGM,totally depressed ,after agreeing a historic 4 year power-sharing deal in 2005,the council has went backwards with the DUP taking the Mayor,Deputy Mayor and DPP chair -done after a not so secret deal with the UCU new Farce,who backed them up in a sectarian headcount-I regret even giving Nicholson a preference.
fyi, folks, Governor of Alaska, Sarah Palin, is probably a more astute politician than any of our politicians.
She commands support and respect from both sides of the political divide in her state and will be a formidable politician in America for a long time. In her acceptance speech last year she gave a very accurate prediction about what would happen in the US if Obama took over, especially in relation to taxes:
But when the cloud of rhetoric has passed … when the roar of the crowd fades away … when the stadium lights go out, and those Styrofoam Greek columns are hauled back to some studio lot — what exactly is our opponent’s plan? What does he actually seek to accomplish, after he’s done turning back the waters and healing the planet? The answer is to make government bigger … take more of your money … give you more orders from Washington … and to reduce the strength of America in a dangerous world…
Taxes are too high … he wants to raise them. His tax increases are the fine print in his economic plan, and let me be specific.
The Democratic nominee for president supports plans to raise income taxes … raise payroll taxes … raise investment income taxes … raise the death tax … raise business taxes … and increase the tax burden on the American people by hundreds of billions of dollars…
How are you going to be better off if our opponent adds a massive tax burden to the American economy?
Prescient, eh?
Y’aint seen nothin yet!
I think I will start referring to them as the New tactics -that would make them the UCUNTs
Danny you would do better in these situations if you had better candidates.
will you run again yourself?
IJP should have been clearer about the Lisbon Treaty. He never made it clear whether he supported it or rejected it. He told us the pros and the cons.
That cost him a preference from me.
It turned out that unless it was a first preference, it would not have mattered anyway. I don’t think that this election was won or lost on the Lisbon treaty.
I’m happy enough that Alliance have polled better than at any other time when the party has run in European elections with it’s own candidate, better even than Alderdice in 1989 who had one of the highest popular votes for a single politician in Northern Ireland, with Alliance itself sitting just shy of 11% on the council elections on the same day. And Alderdice did not have to deal with the dynamic in unionism which caused Parsley to get eliminated at the end of the first count.
I am not sure the Gilliland comparison is accurate; Gilliland would have gotten people out who would not ordinarily support Alliance, helping to fill some of that illusive gap in European polls into which approximately one third to one half of the party’s vote in other elections falls.
And wouldn’t it be true to say that the Greens benefitted from the absence of competition from the Socialist Environmental Alliance ? And the general disillusionment with politicians in general (Parsley certainly looked a lot more like a politician than Agnew did).
Yes,whether AMcD likes it or not.
Comrade,never judge a book by it’s cover,you can put an armani suit on a tailor’s dummy – but ,hey it is still a dummy.
Well if the award for the most smug looking politician is up for grabs I’d have to give Basil McCrea 9.5/10 whilst standing at Jim Nic’s shoulder !
Ian was the candidate who took the lead for Alliance in what is always the most difficult election for the party. People are entitled to like us or not, but facts should be respected.
Mark McG – true, the Gilliland campaign included a strong Alliance element, but it was a good bit wider. In 2004, there were Tory, British Labour, WP and ex-NIWC activists supporting John Gilliland, as well as his substantial rural base. So a superficial comparison between Gilliland and Parsley is not accurate.
West Belfast – we didn’t go backwards from the Assembly election. We got 5.5%, compared to 5.2%. The last time we got over 5% in a European election, we were in the 8% range for other elections. I am not going to spin this as a major triumph, but it was not backwards.
Fence sitter – not sure who was supposed to have had all the laptops at the count, but it wasn’t us. In fact, I don’t think we had any this time.
Marcus and Pete W – good to see that two opponents can show a bit of generosity and a bit of realism.
I am not surprised that this thread on Slugger is very different from the feedback on the doorsteps and in conversations with non-partisan voters. I am afraid that I will continue to take more notice of the latter.
Diane Dodds & the DUP got their comeuppance for such a negative campaign and the ridiculous sectarian ‘beat Sinn Fein’ nonsense. Dodd’s childish antics in not shaking hands with de Bruin was shocking and sends out a very poor message to Nationalists & Republicans. Was that the start of a new front from the DUP? Peter Robinson looked like he had just come through a very scary ghost train in those TV interviews, he was ivory in shock. Allister’s comments on the podium were a disgrace and very inflammatory coming into the marching season. As Gerry Adams said tonight there will be those sinister elements that take succour and direction from remarks like these. It is now important that BOTH the British & Irish governments reiterate that the Good Friday Agreement is the only way forward and that mandatory coalition (Unionist misrule & gerrymandering Mark II) will NEVER come into their thinking.
De Bruin 9: Topped the poll aswell as being the first nationalist party to do so and consolidated the sf vote.
Nicholson 9: Took the second seat behind Sinn Fein whilst having being tipped to be in a dogfight with SDLP for the last seat.
Dodds: 4:Disasterous result for the DUP as they continually harped on about stopping SF from topping the poll.A weak performance from a weaker candidate.
Maginess:5: Failed to win the third seat that they said they would. Fielded a stronger candidate than last time tho did’nt really make any significant impact.
ALLISTER: 9: Performed over and above what he said he would (I predicted he would get up to 60,000, not far off.)
Loses a point for being so pompous and arrogant.
Parsley: 7: articulate and intelligent candidate who has a definate future in Politics.Increased the Alliance vote.
Agnew: 3:Not a great candidate (needs a serious makeover) and a dismal enough tally.
Ian,David,
Not having a go. The purpose of the thread is mainly craic driven – we’ve had to endure you buggers having the first and last word for near two months.
However, I think 5/5 is fair when comparing the current APNI vote to Gilliland’s. Especially with the real growth in the Green vote that pushed you hard at the bottom (get me). Must make you concerned for that target seat in North Down?
But sure it’s mostly only a bit of fun and why aren’t you dour feckers out having a pint? The election is over!
David Ford,The runner up for Mayor was Gerardine,proposed by me 2nd by M Lynch,She was then Proposed for deputy by John M,lost both 9 to 4
fence sitter,
I think most pundits expected Parsley to run against Agnew as a potential gain when Wilson stands down at the next election. This result makes the APNI gain less likely and because of Parsley’s profile makes it look like the sitting MLA, Farry, could lose out. Yes – geeks do think this far ahead.
Danny,
Comrade,never judge a book by it’s cover,you can put an armani suit on a tailor’s dummy – but ,hey it is still a dummy.
I did not mean it that way. I don’t agree with a lot of what Agnew was saying, but he was a good candidate and he got my #2. Definitely the Greens’ best campaign in a long time.
David Ford’s remarks did cause me to note that out of three European elections that Alliance has run in most recently, the party’s vote was approximately half of what it got in the nearest election (the nearest, earlier or later). It would be naive to assume that this rule continues to apply, and more naive still to assume that the electorate would blindly conform to such a rule, but it is nonetheless a trend.
So if the british conservatives now really want to ‘other’ the DUP&TUV; and re-join the UK they will ditch the Orange Order. And given a chance to vote to keep more of the proceeds of their hard work, how many catholics would decide that all-class nationalism is really a bit naff?
And as an aside: if Wilson wanted to act in the best long-term interests of the Greens he would stand down now and hand the seat to Agnew, allowing him to build an MLA profile and freeing resources to have a wee punt in S.Belfast.
I am not surprised that this thread on Slugger is very different from the feedback on the doorsteps and in conversations with non-partisan voters. I am afraid that I will continue to take more notice of the latter.
Posted by David Ford on Jun 08, 2009 @ 11:07 PM
What tosh.
You should be taking notice of every bit of constructive criticism that you can get. Strikes me your leadership of Alliance is characterised by an attitude where you know-it-all. That would be ok if you did and people voted for you.
They dont.
Whats your position on Lisbon anyhow?
Does anyone know?
If Stephen Farry loses his seat by being out polled by IJP will Dr Farry form the TAV (Traditional Alliance Voice) and come back and haunt the APNI?
Quickly, in response to a direct question: it is Alliance Party policy to support a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty.
However, such a referendum would obviously be lost. Thus, I put forward the view that the treaty needs modified, and that was the point I focused on. One example I gave of something which would make it more palatable to the UK electorate was that the single “High Commissioner for Foreign Affairs” should instead become a “High Commissioner for International Aid and Development”.
The difficulty is that it’s an incredibly complex document and you are given 30 seconds to explain your position on it. TV may like brief soundbytes, but responsible governance requires more considered positions.
It is quite possible I should have come up with a better “soundbyte”. I would also be delighted if my stance on Lisbon were a determining factor in most people’s vote. But I don’t think so, unfortunately!
fence sitter
No, that’s Brian Wilson’s role… (sorry, couldn’t resist – I really am away now)
Mark,
You’re on a hiding to nothing there, both are teetotal. I imagine Parsley’s away somewhere enjoying a lemonade or something.
I still don’t think the Gilliland comparison is valid. The voters in 2005 weren’t voting for the Alliance “brand” which Parsley made a point of pushing forward, with the PPB featuring Alliance faces quite prominently. If Alliance hacks came onto Slugger claiming Gilland’s result as an endorsement of “our” policies we’d have paid hell for it. I also mentioned already that in 2005 there were two “green” candidates who, coincidentally, between them scored a vote similar to Agnew’s. Eamonn McCann had a high profile, almost similar to Gilliland’s, and he mentioned green matters quite prominently.
On the North Down question, it depends to what extent you believe in the theory that Wilson’s vote is a personal one and how well Agnew would slot in in North Down, especially given Parsley’s existing profile as deputy Mayor. Did you get any numbers from their boxes during verification ?
And on the subject of verification, when you were doing the Greens did you see what sort of proportion of them were transferring to Alliance ? I’d wager a fair chunk of them. Even to the extent where, under more liberal rules, their elimination would have likely taken us closer to a saved deposit.
Iain,
You should be taking notice of every bit of constructive criticism that you can get.
There’s been very little constructive criticism on this thread. A bit of a slagging, fair enough, some outright abuse, not fair enough, but no real exploration of the issues. TBH it’s too early for that anyway.
Go and look up “trolling”, then compare with “constructive criticism” and report back right here with your findings.
CS,
I wasn’t at verifiction nevermind for the Greens but I do have a soft spot for them and eirigi and SF and the SDLP and sometimes Alliance and I loved Allister in that election but I spoilt my ballot and encouraged others to do likewise – we got 4K! Hurrah!!!
IJP,
Still dont think I got a straight answer there. You may be right that a vote on Lisbon would ‘obviously be lost’, that doesnt stop you telling us whether you and your party would say yes or no in such a vote.
Its all very well telling us what amendments you’d propose etc, but thats not the question….nor are amendements going to be part of the equation if Cameron gets his chance to put it to referendum before its ratified in all 27.
Straight answers will garner you more votes.
I thought you said somewhere (here?) that you were tallying for them, and I’d figured that meant you were at verification. No intention to suggest that you were a supporter, I’m aware of your leanings ..
Iain, that strikes me as a bit confused. Why would a party with the power to force a referendum bother to do so if it already had a strong opinion either for or against ? And if it felt it did not have the support of the voters in signing a treaty why would it do so ? The referendum argument from Cameron is a red herring, like referenda in general pretty much are.
I find it incredulous that the Alliance party couldn’t match Gilliland performance in the previous European elections. I find this party too smug, Parley doesn’t answer the question he wallows in self proclamations and pours scorn on the Orange and Green traditions; yet Alliance need Orange and Green in order to prop up their meagre existence.
Allister was clearly the best candidate within this election and as a country we have lost an absolute gem, we have returned three MEP’s that aren’t worth a tinkers curse between them. The people of NI then have the audacity to wonder why we are always lagging behind, we will have Nicholson who will do little except making more claims and refuse to detail them, deBrun will align herself to left wing extremist parties that don’t represent NI and Dianne Dodds will spend most of her time learning what MEP is an abbreviation for.
CS,
They had offered me a slot. People dying meant I couldn’t take it.
I am not, and think any of those Greens that invited me to the party tonight will confirm, I am absolutely nothing to do with them!
I like wee Steven though.
CS,
Come on!
If things go Cameron’s way, he promises a referendum on Lisbon if its not ratified before he gets to power (what happens if it is isnt too clear).
Now, come on, its a straight forward question I’ve asked IJP and DF.
Would Alliance say yes or no to Lisbon in such a referendum?
The European election in NI is a Heavyweight contest.
The big 4 slug it out for a 3 seats.
With Hume and Paisley retired it has been more open.
SF have a heavyweight vote and will hold the seat for the forseeable future.
Nicholson puts the gloves up and can last 15 rounds every time.
Dodds Alban and Allister are light heavyweights. Dodds won on points but didn’t deserve it.
Alliance are middle weights and Greens have gone from being featherweights to light middle weights.
But Allister is the only one who talks like ALI.
Pre dementia.
Jesus wept!
If IJP was such a terrible candidate, why are so many people spending their valuable time discussing him?!
It’s actually pretty obvious he was by far and away the best candidate – a point many in other parties will gladly concede.
I’m not sure what the future for the Alliance Party is, because frankly I think their objective has been pretty much achieved. But that is distinct from the outstanding job IJP did – shame on us all we rejected him in favour of the likes of Diane Dodds. I suppose that’s Alliance’s point about the need for anti-sectarian politics made!
Pete,Ali was good but even he had todepend on Angelo Dundee to slit his glove to buy him more time to recover from Henry’s hammer.there have been heavyweights who were useless and light heavyweights who successfully moved up-Michael Spinks and yes even Ali won his gold at light heavy.
My, my, this thread has spent a lot of time discussing a supposedly irrelvant party with a supposedly downwards vote share (even though it wasn’t). Ian Parsley polled more votes than John Alderdice in 1989 and any other Alliance Euro candidate since 1979 (when I was in nappies), and more than we did at the last Assembly election. This vote was our best since the GFA – but apparently we’ve done badly. Like, seriously – wise up!
I spoilt my ballot and encouraged others to do likewise – we got 4K! Hurrah!!!
Like in most elections most of the spoiled votes were cast by old ladies with incipient Alzheimers. It’s actually quite humbling to see the effort that some people make to cast a vote in difficult circumstances and quite pathetic to see how little attempt some other parties agents made to see their voters’ votes counted. I actually had to make the argument for a few voters votes being counted (and they were not Parsley voters), and some voters who clearly had intended to vote for candidates other than Parsley – particularly for Bairbre de Brún – to see so little effort for their votes to be counted was shameful.
Other people can sneer at elective democracy all they want, but if someone, almost certainly either very elderly and borderline senile or mentally handicapped, as most of the accidental spoils clearly are, bothers to vote, it behoves all of us to count those votes. Polling day is the only day at which all of us – rich, poor, Catholic, Protestant, young, old, native, immigrant, religious, secular, man, woman, gay or straight are absolutely equal.
There was a marginally higher ratio of deliberate spoils to accidentalts than ususal, but you and your mates, Mark, with your two-figure level of deliberate spoils were hardly a matter of serious political consideration. Were you one one of the ones who wrote “Eirigi” or one of the “Free Collie Duffy” voters? Or were you one of the ones who didn’t even give us the bit of craic at the spoiled votes table by writing anything other than a load of XXXXs?
PS – Jim Allister – fenian-hating bigot! I don’t understand this admiration for his unbending principles (of fenian-hating refusal to compromise on anything). Unbending principle was what got us into the mess we were in in the first place. The only Taigs closer to his comiseration speech than I was were Bairbre de Brún and Alban Maginness, and I can’t speak for them, but I found his speech filled with ‘gravitas’ – according to members of the Green Party – a spittle-flecked rant directed at me and my kind.
Oh, my God, it’s so obvious I was in the pub before that post. But I think youse know what I mean…
Sammy Morse,good post,as someone who has sought and gained peoples’ votes ,I am humbled by the fact that people trust me enough to give me their most precious possession – their vote -it is a great leveller,no matter how rich or how poor – that vote is precious – because it represents a person ,a billionaire’s vote is worth exactly the same as the man on the dole’s. Sometimes I wonder do all elected people not realise that trust, and yet many see votes as a commodity (to make themselves rich on the backs of the public ).
Sammy
No more rum for you, m’boy!
*hic*
For forecasts made b4 the end of May:
1) Frustrated Democrat – absolute value of vote differential of 57,748.
2) Poncho – differential – 86,140
Will be interesting to see how more accurate the later forecasts were.
What’s the big deal about Jim Allister? He wasn’t off the telly/radio for 2 years and he still lost his seat and saw his vote share half.
Will he be signing on next week?
Only when counting ballots.
Allister was clearly the best candidate within this election and as a country we have lost an absolute gem
Outsider, you’re obviously a supporter so maybe you can answer a question I keep asking on Slugger. Why did Jim Allister take almost a week to get a statement out about the McDaid murder ?
Why did this man of principle join the DUP at a time when William McCrea’s associations with the Billy Wright’s LVF in Mid Ulster were exposed on TV ?
Iain:
Come on!
If things go Cameron’s way, he promises a referendum on Lisbon if its not ratified before he gets to power (what happens if it is isnt too clear).
People accuse Alliance of fence sitting, but that’s taking the biscuit.
Now, come on, its a straight forward question I’ve asked IJP and DF.
Would Alliance say yes or no to Lisbon in such a referendum?
I would imagine “yes”, but I don’t believe the party is in the habit of forming policy based on speculative future events.
Junior
IJP was the best candidate! Explain?
FENCE SITTER,
I’ll have a go at this one – he was the best candidate because he was the most articulate, the most knowledgeable about Europe, and the most capable of dealing with the detail of the issues on behalf of NI.
I’ve no time for his party, but it really is a shame he wasn’t elected – he would have helped transform NI politics to a much better place, something none of those elected will do.