TUV turnout to scupper Stormont?
The strong (anticipated) TUV vote in the European election will lead to the collapse of the power-sharing Executive at Stormont. Discuss (my early thoughts below the fold.)It is, of course, still early days in the count proceedings, but with tally figures from a variety of parties suggesting a definite trend indicating a 12% plus turnout for Allister’s Traditional Unionist Voice, there is no doubt that the political consequences will be fairly dramatic at Stormont.
The DUP campaign was mounted on a clear pitch to bang the drum to rally unionists with the war cry of defeating republicans/ nationalists. The following quotes are taken from its election literature posted through every door in the Six Counties:
“To take republicans on….for control over decisions of nationalist/ republican ministers….to maintain a unionist agenda….to prevent Sinn Fein receiving the morale boost they desperately need.”
The negative tone was and remains clear; but having opted to fight on that battlefront, the party left itself exposed to Allister’s charge that this was a Janus-headed strategy which could be easily picked apart in the heartlands, where the Agreement(s) were never really sold in the first instance.
If, as now seems all but certain, Sinn Fein have topped the poll and the DUP have been humiliated by the defection of a sizeable chunk of its core vote to the unreconstructed Anti-Agreements (that’s of Good Friday and St Andrews) Party, then we would appear to be heading into a dangerous period of uncertainty in the north of Ireland.
Having bought power-sharing through St Andrews and subsequently sought to pitch the experience as one in which unionism was triumphing at nationalism’s expense (in spite of sound warnings as to the viability of such a strategy from Frank Millar and others), the DUP would appear to have been caught out in an unusual pincer movement: the full effect of the TUV pain is only being revealed because of the UUP’s ability, this time around, to hold its share of the vote.
Whilst the UCUNF project remains in its infancy, and with considerable problems of its own, it has at least seemingly served to stem the tide of disillusioned Ulster Unionist voters transferring their vote to the hitherto buoyant DUP, and may even result in a modest increase in percentage share of the overall turnout on the 2007 low for the party.
The real problem for the DUP is to be found in the party leadership’s collective failure to sell power-sharing with the grassroots, with all that entails for acknowledging as equals in government and society their nationalist neighbours- a problem, ironically, which they share with David Trimble and which provided the opportunity for the DUP to assume the mantle of leadership within the unionist community so decisively in 2005.
Having used the Big Man’s not inconsiderable political presence within Unionism to provide the cover for the historic compromise and leap into the unknown, the DUP is now faced with a backlash from its once most ardent supporters (and, in many cases, activists.)
There is now little room for maneouvre for the DUP. Having endured the early blows and humiliations as part of an unpopular republican leadership-led strategy to provide room for Ian Paisley to ‘sell’ St Andrews and bed in the DUP within the power-sharing administration, the leadership of Sinn Fein signalled an end to that particular strategy in the summer of 2008 through the Executive stand-off and the delivery of a clear message to the DUP that Sinn Fein could and would exercise its veto powers to frustrate the ambitions of DUP Ministers if a more consensual approach was not forthcoming from the very top.
The DUP are believed to have signed up to the devolution of policing and justice in a deal likely to have the British government as guarantor and under a clear understanding that Sinn Fein will walk if the deal is not adhered to.
Yet such a development (i.e. actual devolution of such powers), in the context of a DUP strategy which has paid little attention to the need to condition support within unionism for acknowledging and addressing the reciprocal needs and interests of their nationalist equals within government and society, may prove grist to the mill for what will be a rejuvenated Traditional Unionist Voice.
In that context, Sinn Fein would appear to have emerged from the election with a much strengthened hand, able perhaps to concede on slippage to any secret deal over policing/ justice devolution in return for other significant advances within and outside of the remit of the Executive.
If a week is a long time in politics, then nine months is an eternity.
Casting the mind back three seasons, it was very much the case that republicans had reason to be apprehensive. A poor outing in the Assembly and Executive to date was matched with speculation that the SDLP had snared the former Police Ombudsman, Nuala O’Loan, as a prospective candidate in the European election. Such a prospect would doubtlessly have galvanised an SDLP vote which had long before entered a slumber, disillusioned by what was on offer from the Durkan political leadership yet unimpressed by the alternative offerings of a Sinn Fein yet to get to grasp with the legislative and executive skills expected of a party in government and still suffering from the backlash (in this electoral grouping) of the toxic cloud produced by the Northern Bank robbery and murder of Robert McCartney.
That Sinn Fein ultimately did not have to face a much more rigorous test at the polls is partially an indictment of an SDLP leadership which now must surely be entering its final phase. But it also must be acknowledged that the type of pincer movement which has, apparently, so severely damaged the DUP in this election was never going to be an issue for Sinn Fein due to the fact that, whilst its party leadership may face questions over an inability to date to take steps to prepare the party for the demands of governance, it has excelled at preparing its own electoral and political base for the compromises necessary in the new post-Agreement era.
For more than a decade now, the republican narrative preached to the grassroots at internal functions, public rallies and media interviews has consistently sought to challenge and guide republicans to a position which acknowledges the need to address the concerns and rights of unionists. Of course, there have been dissenting voices, and some have left the mainstream republican group, but they remain a very small element of republicanism and a much, much smaller section of the broader nationalist community, with nothing like the electoral pull the Traditional Unionist Voice clearly retain within unionism.
It is ironic that, whilst Sinn Fein could learn a lot from the DUP regarding how to approach the business of preparing for governance, the DUP clearly have a lot more to learn from Sinn Fein regarding how to prepare an electoral and broader communal base for the pains and challenges of a new era of compromise.
“Hume was there to move the IRA out of business and SF towards democratic politics. McCrea was there to rattle the saber. I am astonished you are so myopic can’t see the distinction.”
True indeed, Hume was pouring cold water on the embers while McCrea was stoking them up!
Jim Allister and TUV have won regardless of what happens at the count, i have never voted anything other than UUP but i went with allister as he works hard and his proposals for the assembly ie a formal opposition and end to mandatory coalition are reasonable and would improve efficiency and accountability, the DUP are nauseating hypocrites who have been found out, its interesting to note the friendship and good relations that exist between the UUP and TUV activists i can see a good working relationship there that will benefit unionism in the future
It would seem that the TUV may succeed where republican dissidents failed.
The RIRA/CIRA failed to set us back a decade or so with their murders, but the TUV might just pull it off.
Almost enough to make you want to emigrate!
now now Reader, we were getting on so well. Try this.
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/sunday-life/news/a-spectre-from-the-past-back-to-haunt-peace-13904018.html
Peter Robinson told one rally: “The Resistance has indicated that drilling and training has already started. The officers of the nine divisions have taken up their duties.”
if it looks like a duck and walks like a duck, chances are …………
Macswiney
“Make no mistake, a divided and split Unionism significantly weakens the Union”
I dont agree.
If anything the one big unified unionist party of the 20th century actually weakened the Union. It got lazy and presumptious.
Competition is good as it keeps parties on their toes and will require contunual innovation of thought, strategy and policy.
All unionists have something in common – we all support the Union – the problem is we disagree (and at times fundamentally) on how best to advance and protect it. We can also be split on the spectrum of moderate to extreme with devotion to religion playing its role there.
Strategy moves from integrationists, alligmnet to established UK political parties through to Develotionists, Power Sharers and then right onto Majority Rulers.
I dont see any of this as a weakness but as a strength.
When SF top the pole that will be more an indication of Nationalist weakness than Unionist. Apart from it being a shame that so many nationalists could express support for the IRA SF are ultimately clueless anyway in terms of 21st Century Govt.
How could anyone vote for a Party that keeps Caitriona Ruane as a Minister ?
As for Unionist unity there will be no disunity when Border Poles come round.
When it matters there will be the unity requires but until that time we will chart our own paths – ultimately they all lead to the one place
“Nevin, Ulster Resistance ?”
and the Third Farce, fin?
BTW there’s not much ‘Ulster Resistance’ in the face of the Rathlin ferry scandal. ‘Munster Resistance’ is rising: Cléire Abú
PS Perhaps some of our Irish speakers could provide translations for the likes of me.
“i have never voted anything other than UUP but i went with allister as he works hard and his proposals for the assembly ie a formal opposition and end to mandatory coalition are reasonable and would improve efficiency and accountability,”
“When SF top the pole that will be more an indication of Nationalist weakness than Unionist.
No wonder Unionism is in disarray with this sort of thinking!
http://www.supportcapeferrycrew.com/index.php
The Cape Clear ferry (operator of Rathlin route)workers were out on strike on Thursday.
The owner has unilaterally cut their wages.
27% Skipper 22% crews plus he is asking that they work an extra 4 weeks unpaid.
No one appears to have Sinn Fein in Cork that their Minister’s dept in Belfast gave this employer the Rathlin contract…
Nevin, I interpreted your point earlier as a restatement of a fundamentally sectarian unionist party line, ie Catholics support terrorists at the polls and decent Protestants don’t.
As well as being sectarian, it’s economical with the truth. Unionist politicians evidently do not think that taking a stiff line against loyalist paramilitaries will benefit them at elections, that’s why they don’t do it. From the incident with McCrea and Wright, to the Alexander Bar raid a few years ago where Nigel Dodds criticized the police (during an operation that resulted in senior loyalists being prosecuted for christ’s sake), to the situation a few weeks ago where unionist politicians all worked together and sought to deflect blame away from the UDA and indeed, in the case of Jim Allister, waited five days before issuing a flimsy wishy-washy statement on it, there is a clear pattern that unionist politicians see themselves as political representatives of loyalist paramilitaries.
Loyalists themselves evidently don’t think that unionist politicians are their enemy, given that they help to do their postering during elections.
The reason why I get worked up about this, apart from the fact that loyalist paramilitaries are littled more than volatile psychopathic criminal thugs and they are a blight on the entire community, is because this myth that loyalists don’t receive support at the polls is used to advance a fundamentally sectarian line which opposes political progress and reconciliation in this country. Please don’t repeat it again.
Greagoir
“No wonder Unionism is in disarray with this sort of thinking!”
You just cant see it can you.
The majority of nationalists voting for a Party allied to an organisation that brought nothing but misery upon this part of the world for the best part of 30 years.
Are we also to believe that all northern nationalists have a marxist economic view of the world ?
The fact that a moderate right of centre nationalist party cant trump such a party (as it is clearly squashed on every occasion in the South) is totally indiactive of northern nationalist weakness and lack of imagination.
When the Unionist paramilitary parties stand they get clearly trounced at the poles – as they should.
Infact what is inherently wrong with northern nationalism that it feels the need to express itself via such people and such a Party ?
Meanwhile unionism is involved in a debate – trying to win the hearts and minds of NI voters who support the Union. That debate will to and fro. But it is inherently healthy and as it is many stranded will ultimately maximise the overall unionist vote.
SF shot its militant Irish Republican bolt and with the collapse of the Celtic Tiger its only hope is a sectarian head count because ultimately it is clueless.
It is nationalism that is in disarray but either cant or chooses not to see it.
GOF ,
‘“When SF top the pole that will be more an indication of Nationalist weakness than Unionist.
No wonder Unionism is in disarray with this sort of thinking! ‘
This is the kind of thinking that used to portray every 5-0 defeat in an international soccer game as a ‘moral ‘ victory’ ? Already we have had Turgon putting out the failsafe position for When Dodds defeats Allister for the last seat ? i.e No matter if she wins it will be considered a major defeat ?
No doubt Unionism will win any future border referendum by amassing 40% of the vote to their opponents 60% ?
Northern Ireland needs more Unionist parties . The more the merrier .
The more lambs , goats and sheep you put in the lion enclosure at the azoo then it’s all good news for the lion. Gets a varied diet you see
“When SF top the pole that will be more an indication of Nationalist weakness than Unionist”
“How could anyone vote for a Party that keeps Caitriona Ruane as a Minister ?”
Possibly so that she can improve the standard of english on Slugger, or are Sinn Fein really going to top some Polish person
“Nevin, I interpreted your point earlier ….”
Therein, lies your difficulty, Comrade Stalin.
“volatile psychopathic criminal thugs and they are a blight on the entire community”
Agreed, though I lump the republican and loyalist thugs together in this. It’s an ecumenical thing.
“it’s all good news for the lion”
Greenflag, is the Celtic tiger suffering from irritable vowel syndrome?
“their Minister’s dept in Belfast gave this employer the Rathlin contract…”
Yes, Pigeon Toes, it makes you wonder what Minister Murphy is doing if the civil servants are making the key decisions.
Unless, the Minister is telling a ferry terminal inexactitude …
“The reason why I get worked up about this”
Comrade Stalin, please correct me if I’m wrong but I thought you were an Alliance party aficionado.
“When SF top the pole … are Sinn Fein really going to top some Polish person”
fin, I thought the pole was greased rather than polished …
Agreed Fin,
I was wondering if the thread had moved on to the electoral preferences of strippers in Krakow.( top of the pole, border pole etc.)
JEB
Dissent is healthy but fracture isn’t.
Comrade,
I hate to be a cynic but they (SF) may have cards to play in the inevitable vacuum(given to them by proxy) that strengthen their position with whoever is HMG
oh Latcheeco, you would lower the tone…;)
Re. your point about SF with cards to play, on the flipside do unionists have anything left to play. The TUVies like to think that AJ would collapse Stormont and opt for direct rule, others think the DUP might beat him to it, however, would a Labour govt up to its neck in other more important issues allow them, or would a newly elected Tory PM want the unravelling of the NI process on his CV, could the assembly continue with just the UUP on board?
Nevin ,
‘is the Celtic tiger suffering from irritable vowel syndrome?’
No. According to Nobel Prize Winner for Voodoo (Economics )Paul Krugman who was here the other day it will take 5 years to get back to where we were circa 2002. Biffo won’t have liked that . George Lee (he of the I told you so -late in the day school of prophetic journalism) is now one of the members for Dublin South .
You ask for my alternative? Im quite content with Direct Rule in some format if it means no former terrorist is making decisions about my family’s future..
In reality it would probably be direct rule bordering on joint London/Dublin authority.
We are entering a dangerous period ahead for nationalists, with the Tories taking over in Britain and Fine Gael in the South.
Whence all the paranoia about FG?
FG/FF = tweedledum/tweedledee
As a first-time poster on Slugger I find all the current speculation fascinating, but (having spoken to a number of people who have been trying to tally votes by peering through the wrong side of ballot papers)I would prefer to await the real results before deciding whether to thumb my nose at the wretched DUP and say “Didn’t you learn ANYTHING from Trimble’s fate?”
Oh yes. Liam. You mentioned that Sinn have a mandate “and that must be respected.” Hitler had a far larger democratic mandate than SF has. Should the Allies have respected his mandate and just let him “get on with it”? Did his mandate justify what he did?
The fact of the matter is that Sinn Fein would kill to have a mandate as big as Hitler’s.
Apologies for dropping the “Fein” from “Sinn Fein.” Shinful of me. Or maybe a Freudian shlip.
Greenflag, do you mean this Paul Kruger: “Erin go broke”? Perhaps he mellowed his tone whilst he was a guest in Dublin ..
Gregoir
Hume was used to get the provos and SF off the hook when they realised that the police and army had effectively defeated them, they could not fart without intelligence knowing and were riddled with infomers from top to bottom, the Unionists moved to soon and could have got a better outcome had they accepted the molyneaux line and stretched the system while offering a settlement, this would also have saved and enhanced the uup
Samuel,
Your point is very similar to the point the losers in Vietnam often made, but they were still losers.
Nevin
Kensei, would the respective mobs have got at each others’ throats had it not been for the ‘street theatre’ of the likes of Hume and Paisley?
Yes. There were larger forces at work than single men.
From where I’m standing, they both have a lot to answer for.
I cannot believe you have placed Hume and Paisley in the same class.
latcheeco
you have consumed to much agent orange, a border poll would show 70% for the Union so its a bit silly to suggest that unionists are loosers, i am simply highlighting the fact that the negociations leading up to the return of stormont rule could have been handled a lot better when time and circumstances were clearly on the unionist side, mandatory coalition is bad for democracy and good government irrespective of were its applied
Samuel,
Your post suggests you think they lost. 70% wtf? It wasn’t even 70% in 1922
Agent Orange?
Is that that poisonous crap that stifles growth?
A vote for a nationalist party shouldn’t be considered as the same thing as an anti-union vote. Unspecified quantities of them are ‘nationalist unionists’ – yeah, I know it’s a mega-oxymoron, but NI is full of them. They’re nationalists who support the union but who don’t vote for unionist parties. That’s the result of a schism between the nation and its state. Culturally, they are members of the nationalist community but, constitutionally, they regard the UK as a guarantor of the status quo. To them, it isn’t necessary for the nation to control the state, so the concept of the nation-state is readily dispensed with.
The odd thing about the GFA is that it locks the two nations into a struggle for control of the state while stipulating that neither nation should have control of the state because the state must be shared by consociational government and by a constitutional framework that is agreed between the two nations. It’s a mild form of schizophrenia. So, back to this schism: because the GFA is an anti nation-state agreement (a sort of bi-nation-state replacement), then the dynamic of that is that those nationalists who are ‘nationalist unionists’ (who don’t see the nation as requiring control of a state) are now the group who are most in tune with the GFA and the group who are most likely to grow in numbers as a result of it.
That is why you have the UUP linked up with the Conservatives and made a pitch for them. I don’t think they’ll vote for them, but are more likely to stay within the fold based on membership of a community, voting for parties within that fold but, of course, remaining loyal to the union if a poll is ever called. So the pitch isn’t really needed. All that is needed is to ensure that the community they belong do not feel unduly disenfranchised so that the benefits of remaining within the union are not outweighed by any perceived cultural disadvantage of it.
And let’s face it, most of the nationalists in NI are a self-serving bunch (What’s in it for me?), so subvention is what keeps them there. The acid test of that is to tell them that the Irish taxpayers have no intention of keeping them in the style to which they have become accustomed, and then see how many of them would vote to maintain the union. I suspect that the vast bulk of them would out themselves as de facto unionists at that point. Okay, they wouldn’t out themselves as de jure unionists because then they’d lose the advantage of them need to pamper them in order to keep them within the union.
latcheeco
There are more Catholics who support the Union now than 1n 1922, theres a big difference in being culturally nationalist and voting sdlp or even sf and giving up the security and economic well being that uk membership affords.
the catholic middle management that now runs the civil service, health service councils in northern ireland may wear gaa shirts and support the republic when they play ni but in the confidentially of a ballot box many of them would vote to maintain the status quo, hardline protestants complained for years that catholics were taking over thease jobs but many of them now realise that it was actually in the unionist interest
Samuel and Dave, at what point will these nationalist unionists show themselves, I’m guessing you’re going to say during a border poll, but why, thats brinkmanship surely, there is little between nationalist and unionist votes in any election at the moment, why wait for a crunch vote to appear. I’m sorry but if these people existed they would have appeared in voting patterns by now, and also a % would be visible at least in the Alliance and/UUP.
I really wouldn’t depend on the votes of a political grouping that you can’t even prove exists.
A potentially more likely group that exists are unionists who don’t care, the evidence for this group is the falling unionist turnout at elections, to be honest I think unionism would struggle to get the vote fully out in a border poll, especially if there was a good offer on the table for unity.
sure
a 100 euro bill to see the doctor is a mighty enducement for prods to put thier confidence in a republic, if you were raised a good ulster protestant you would know that there is no salvation in self deception, the garden centre prod even came out and voted for the gfa and have not bothered to vote since, threaten to take away thier citizenship and lessen thier quality of life and it will be every prod to the polls
Samuel, if I could ask you a quick question – no need for a long reply (though feel free to email one):
What is your feeling towards some form of a NI Irish Language Act?
a. Mostly for
b. Mostly against
c. None of your business
oc
none apply, i would like to see the rights of the genuine irish language user protected and enhanced if needed but i dont want a SF inspired instrument of oppression and turf marker, ‘every vowel learned as good as a bullet fired’
Samuel,
Sorry but I think you’re kidding yourself. Any evidence to support your claims? Garden center prods are as big a myth as the one million prods nonsense was. And I wouldn’t know where to start with the GAA shirt wearing, Keane cheering catholic unionists. Here’s a better way of looking at the whole population of the north: 1/3 rebels, 1/3 loyal and 1/3 open to persuasion (same as the colonies during the American Revolution)
latcheeco ,
‘Here’s a better way of looking at the whole population of the north: 1/3 rebels, 1/3 loyal and 1/3 open to persuasion (same as the colonies during the American Revolution)’
Possibly true but with one major factor of significance omitted . I refer to geographical distance .
3,000 miles instead of 50 or 12 in the north east channel .
Had the USA been as close to the UK as Ireland then the American War of Independence would have been defeated before it began -if it began at all at all ! .
Greenflag,
Agreed, the feckers probably would have ended up partitioning Dixie off from the damned yankees
the american war of independence was for large part an irish on irish affair look at the american comanders and the british army commanders and they were all of irish protestant background, you cannot compare northern ireland which is a fully integrated part of the united kingdom with an 18th century colony
i would like to see the rights of the genuine irish language user protected and enhanced if needed…
Posted by samuel Jones on Jun 07, 2009 @ 04:06 PM
I’ll take that as an at-least-not-mostly-against!
Thank you for your honesty! NI needs honest men.
less than 15% of the total vote was anti power sharing! says it all!!!!!