Election Campaign enters final lap
The election campaign grinds remorselessly onwards to the excited expectation of the political anoraks (and if you are reading this site you are a bit of an anorak: I as a blogger am a hopeless snorkel parka case) and the mild interest of real people. I thought at this point as we are about to enter the final week I would take a non impartial look at the current state of the campaigns.
Turning first to my own lot. The TUV campaign has been going well. Despite a relatively small base of election workers, one can hardly move for Allister posters, they are even here in West Fermanagh (I only put a few of them up). The canvassing has gone well with large areas of the province covered, albeit we do lack the numbers to speak to many people at the doors. There has also been a decent TUV presence at public events like the Balmoral Show (as there was for all the parties) and even today I met TUV canvassers at the Pipe Band competition in Enniskillen.
Allister has been on radio and television (most recently on Hearts and Minds). He has done well: quite strident but that is what one expects. He has covered the issues and avoided any embarrassing slips. Even the grilling on expenses on Nolan seemed to go quite well. A lot of TUVists are now convinced he can win; the media, although still seemingly sceptical have certainly stopped asking him whether or not he thinks he will hold his deposit.
The DUP seem to be having a fairly good election. Again the DUP canvassers cannot be faulted for the hard work of their postering and the assorted DUP politicians have been out in force. I am inclined to feel that Diane Dodds has been a bit shrill especially on the Politics Show and Hearts and Minds and at times has avoided answering the questions. However, again she has avoided any major slip ups; and whilst the dynasty building jibe may cause a few problems, the expenses saga seems to not be damaging her personally (and the Robinsons have avoided the worst of the fall out, especially as compared to other MP couples). In addition I would suggest that Dodds seems a pretty personable individual.
Part of the problem for the DUP has always been how high to pitch their expectations. Clearly simply to win a seat would hardly be a stunning result considering where they are staring from. However, the other major objective: that of topping the poll is a fairly big ask. Mick noted a few days ago that the DUP were talking that up less than previously. However, they seem to have come back round to insisting on the importance of a Dodds first. If they succeed, especially if Allister does well that will be a major victory for them. Most of those in the DUP with whom I discuss these matters seem quite cautiously confident that Dodds will top the poll. I feel that may be a bit over confident but of course I am not canvassing for them, I have always avoided predictions and am not going to start now. If they do lose out on the number one spot it will be a bit embarrassing but by no means a disaster. Indeed the level of vote which would represent a relative failure is an interesting question.
One reason suggested by my DUPish sources for their optimism is the same one which the TUV hold to and that is the prospect of a melt down in the UUP vote. It seems fairly clear that the UUP are having a less than brilliant campaign. They are doing fairly well in terms of posters and their campaign literature is pretty good (as noted by Mark). However, the saga over the Conservatives and Unionists at the start of the campaign, followed by Sylvia Hermon’s as yet incomplete defection along with the other complete defection is all far from the perfect back drop to a successful election campaign. Jim Nicholson himself at times seems less than enchanted about the new arrangements as when he at one stage said he did not really like being a guinea pig (I do not have a link). In addition running Nicholson on a time for change type ticket seem particularly problematic in view of just how long he has been an MEP. Finally Nicholson himself although far from awful is not the most dynamic candidate.
Set against all of that, however, is the possibility that some new voters will be attracted to the New Force. In addition one must never underestimate the ability of disinterested voters (people with real lives) to vote as they always have. Today one of Elenwe’s cousins said she would vote UUP because she always does and I am unsure if my pleas (extending to offering a celebratory barbarque if Allister wins) will bring her round to TUVishness. The UUP may yet win; however, I suspect there will be some anxieties in that camp before the end.
Turning to nationalism the election has been a much quieter affair. There are quite a few SF posters around but in all honesty less than I would expect for the part of the world where I live (where the SF vote is expressed using scientific notation). I suspect the strategy on SF’s part is actually very clever. They may lose some votes in protest about their current position, we do not know how many. Had they proclaimed a desire to top the poll too loudly they might have snatched relative defeat from the jaws of victory if they failed to do so. Instead the more softly softly approach will allow for little embarrassment if they fail to be first. I must admit that DeBrún herself has been much more impressive on the media than I remember her from before. The clothes look expensive and yet close to trendy: her whole appearance is much less the school teacher spinster than I remember from before. In addition being the only candidate in this election under little pressure, she has performed highly competently on the media and I felt was arguably the pick of the candidates on the Politics Show.
The SDLP have to my mind been disappointing. They have a pretty good candidate in Alban Maginness and there is at least a small chance of them winning if unionist vote shredding goes perfectly for them. In spite of that I must admit to feeling that their whole campaign is a bit lack lustre: they almost seem to be going through the motions with no real prospect of victory; the slogan of “When we win you win” is almost as bad as UUP slogans from the days of Trimble political suicide notes. Okay it is not as bad as “Decent people vote unionist” (what could be?) but it is not exactly inspiring or catchy.
The Alliance and Greens seem to be having a relatively quiet election. They have a fair number of posters even some in Enniskillen for reasons a bit beyond me. Alliance may suffer a little from Parsley being relatively unknown and although I like and respect Mr. Parsley, I did not like his recent “I am not Paisley” – it seemed a little childish (sorry Ian). However, they might gain if the UUP vote really does fall apart. In addition putting forward a young person is a good tactic for the future: I hope and expect to see Mr. Parsley reappearing in more elections. To be honest, however, living as I do out here in the barren wastes I am not really in a position to judge how Alliance is doing amongst the coffee mornings in the leafy suburbs. I am also ill equpied to comment on the Greens except to note that they may also benefit in North Down (their natural habitat apart from the bizarre disconnect of Green types having Agas and 4x4s) from Sylvia Hermon’s position in / out of the New Force.
As I said at the start that is where I see the parties at the moment. Whether the last week will bring any startling rabbits out of the hat from either one of the parties or the government or indeed whether the QUB debate (to be screened tomorrow) produces anything interesting remains to be seen.
silverline
‘the UUPC are in meltdown in North Down and the TUV not doing that well’
The UUPC doesn’t exist as far as I know, so can’t be in meltdown, however the CU’s are doing just fine as are TUV.
Back to the sun and barbecue preparations.
however the CU’s are doing just fine as are TUV.
hardly a glowing recommedation from a party backed by “the next prime minister”
Also worthy of note: I was speaking to a work colleague who was canvassing in Ballmoney for the DUP. Last council elections they took 3 out of 5 seats and would have taken 4 if they had put up 4 candidates! The feedback on the doors was of a large swing to Allister!!! He also announced he was voting for Allister too.
Lastly in the small village where I live we have a DUP branch and a Unionist branch – yet no-one has been put canvassing.
Is there apathy within the 2 main unionist parties or are they just assuming their right to my vote?
Jim Allister certainly wouldn’t support my shared sovereignty and merger of strands 2 and 3 proposal yet the Allister team has done more to expose the Rathlin ferry scandal and some other stuff than the assembled ranks of Dormant MLAs put together.
You might argue that TUV has no MLAs, especially Ministers, so it has no vested interests to protect at all costs – costs to the taxpayer, I might add.
Will unionists ever going to stick with one party? Another party coming into the fray and gaining substantial support possibly point to Unionism being a short term deal. The DUPs lack of planning for a future agenda could be a start of a downfall as the TUV are playing the exact card that DUP first used to gain “power”.
All,
Knowing that the UUP are terrible canvassers, and knowing that the UUP have no idea how to read the electorate, I have absolutely no reason to believe any of this nonsense you guys have about a UUP comeback. I also don’t believe you when you claim that people are disgruntled about the Robinson expenses business, but apparently are unconcerned about Jim Nicholson’s friends who were engaging in property flipping, gardening and moat-cleaning on expenses. I’m walking on tiptoes here to avoid stepping in the bullshit.
Pancho:
All this voting logic is coming into play. This time the SDLP will have all it’s supporters out as a troop and if SF are going to run away with it then almost 85% of transfers are heading the SDLP’s way, not forgetting the center grounds party of 2nd choice.
Ah yes.
Unfortunately, you probably haven’t heard the rumour that the SDLP have, allegedly, done a deal with the DUP on Belfast City Council to elect a DUP Lord Mayor. How do you think nationalists will react to this ?
fd:
The fact that this is an EU election also makes it difficult to get the national CU message across.
Have you told your voters about Cameron’s new hard-right friends in the European Parliament ?
From the same page but further down:
5. correspondence – similarity by virtue of corresponding
Mouse Scrolling for Dummies
Whoops, wrong thread!
paddy reilly ,
‘Unionist optimism takes some beating. TUV are going to do well, DUP top the poll and UCUNF glide to easy victory powered by their Conservative spin men. I’m sorry lads, but you can’t all win. There just aren’t that many Unionist votes around.’
Well said PR . That was an interesting piece of political crystal balling
I look forward to your post electoral moratorium and what it may mean for electoral politics within NI in the near future .
“Whoops, wrong thread!” – Big Maggie
You big mutton dummy
Diasaffected
Couldn’t agree more, same old crap in the end.
Were all Lemmings , Same old choices & and the political gravy train leaves the station once more
Mean time the rest of us struggle on through the mess created by the people we the lemmings voted in ! Great system
‘mouse-scrolling for Dummies’.?
Blogging for Dummies is what you need, Big Maggie.
We get the politicians other people think we deserve
“Blogging for Dummies is what you need, Big Maggie. ”
Oh go on, laugh. It could happen to a bishop :^)
Taxi for Dodds!
GavBelfast,
Speaking of (D)odds, where do I find the latest betting for NI candidates?
Apart from Martin Meehan’s victory (that wasnt) speech, that performance by Diane Dodds on The Politics Show was the worst I’ve ever witnessed in my life from a NI politician.
What a moron.
Note to Pancho re unionists sticking to one party – we could ask will unionist politians ever stick to the one policy as per their manifesto???
After church this morning some interesting comments! The TUV have been out and about in my area – unionists from doth DUP and UU/CU are voting Allister. They apparently had a great reception in Kilkeel and Ballynahinch too.
Just have to wait and see if people put their 1,2,3s where their mouths are
I’m actually a neutral “small u” unionist, but my own vote is going TUV. Allister has persuaded me he’s one of the most capable candidates we’ve had.
I always thought that for Nicholson the seat may as well have been a sinecure, and never liked Paisley who must surely have been quintuple jobbing or something.
The only reason I can see Diane Dodds getting in is pure party ticket syndrome and people being put off by Allister’s uber unionism.
Can anyone post the politics shows from today on here on youtube? Appreciate it…
oh and btw, I have heard that Dodds was atrocious, Allister good but off putting and no realistic answers for most……Nicholson to top the unionist poll….
Really what percentage of the DUP support have been watching Hearts and Minds and the politics show?
#
Really what percentage of the DUP support have been watching Hearts and Minds and the politics show?
Posted by Pancho on May 31, 2009 @ 02:22 PM
…..
viewing figures for both are probably in the hundreds, lets face it most normal people have lives
deBrun had a great time sitting smirking whilst Dodds and Allister had it out. Dodds really let herself down, even the audience turned against her when she tried to talk over the chair continuously in a mark durkan moment. She didnt do her homework and the 3 MEPs ate her up when she said that tthey hadnt met defra. That performance will have lost here a considerable amount of votes, she came across as ill-mannered and not up to speed with the issues. She even has a worse voice than bairbre! She made Allister look well-mannered and that in itself is some accomplishment.
Diane Dodds was by far the best speaker. I’m so confident of this I didn’t even watch the Politics Show.
As for PB you are obviously very stupid. The DUP doesn’t need your vote so you can just shove it up your ass. You clearly don’t understand what the DUP is doing.
Diane Dodds was by far the best speaker. I’m so confident of this I didn’t even watch the Politics Show.
I agree….
But the truth is Diane will be elected and the two jims wont. NO loss there then. An end to allister and an end to Reg – a good days work for the DUP
As usual here in the often ‘overlooked’ part of East Belfast, the Short Strand, the only people who have been to the doors, the only people who have had consistant literature through the letterbox and the only people with any posters up in the district are the shinners!
I even walked past Bairbre de Brún on the mountpottinger road the other week with some local shinners and a number of residents told me she had paid them a visit to the house a few weeks before that again.
The SDLP have one poster up on the fringe of the area, the alliance a few more there too. The SDLP were handing out leaflets after Mass last week but no sign earlier today. I spotted Alasdair McDonnell there and I think I might have seen Alban himself too but can’t be sure as he had his back to me.
During the last Assembly election the Greens had some posters up along the length of the Short Strand itself but dissapointed not to have seen Steven up again this time as I have been considering a number 2 for him.
As I’m sure you can imagine the DUP, Tories and TUV aren’t paying to much attention to this wee part of the largest Unionist constituency in the north!
That’s the only ‘local’ input I can offer I suppose, like everyone else I have just been following the rest of this fairly quiet campaign on the TV and in the papers.
to ‘question mark question mark’ – such a surprise response from a DUP supporter! Speak to grassroots DUP supporters and they cant explain their own policies. If they could, id probably consider still voting for them!
As for what I said about arrogance – point proven. The DUP supporters must be getting a little nervous about something!
As for my vote being ‘shoved’ as you so nicely put it – its called democracy and being able to vote for whoever you wish; something Im beginning to see the DUP doesnt appear to believe in!
Perhaps as you dont actually know me or my educational attainments (and Im judging by your comments that I have nothing to fear in that regard) you might want to actually eat humble pie and apologise – but then again you are in the DUP camp.
PB,
In the interests of fairness I should point out that ?? and question mark question mark seem to be different people.
I think question mark question mark is submitting ironic joke posts mocking ?? and that is the context in which you should view the post directed at yourself.
?? him / herself is a relatively recent (and much valued) addition to our commentators here on slugger and has become known for unswerving loyalty to the DUP party line.
I think that was fairly objective.
Thanks Turgon
I have no problem with ?? or anyone else, but I do object to being told to shove my vote up my ass!
Matter closed.
But really enjoying the site. Just wished I had known about it before.
I start out from the permise that TUV adopting a Massada like mentality and that they have no coherent strategy that has a snowball’s chance of acceptance by government.There is neverethelss a hardcore constituerncy of voters who resonate with “No Surrender” Unionism. Allster is an excellent candidiate and has had a good campaign. I think there are grounds for beliveing that he could get 60,000+
Jim Nichilson is tired and worn out and his ‘Vote for Change’ logo may yet have an ironic twist. The unionist Conservative link is pious hope. You don’t join forces with a party that until recently could have held their Northern ireland party conference in a member’s back garden. Politics in NI does not fit with such high wire acts.
Diane Dodds initially looked a good pick She is an attractive candidiate but her performance with Noel Thompson on Hearts and Minds was risible. She will have put many moderates off who might have considered giving her lower preference.
Alliance have put up a decent candidiate in Parsley but he along with Greens are mere also rans.
SDLP hoping for an Alistair McDonnell style split.Methinks they arer playing this down in the same way Sinn Fein do not discuss topping poll…but the prize is there and understood by Nationalist voters.
All in all a pretty prosaic election with the main focus on how many votes Allister can muster.
Nichilson will probably hang on and scrape in with less to spare than usual.Suspect De Bruin will top poll.
PB,
No let me warn you. When I found the site, I was delighted. However, then I started commenting and eventually blogging. Now I am a really sad anorak. Save yourself while there is still time.
On a serious note can I remind everyone to try to be civil to one another. The regulars know I loathe censoring comments but the rules are that we try to remain civil. We expect robust even at times angry debate. However, there are some things which will not be tolerated. Also some comments bring the commentator and indeed the site into disrepute.
Turgon
Im afraid it may be too late!
I could really upset our staunch DUP friends by revealing the comments made to me by my colleague (who served as a DUP representative) regarding their beloved party! Think I’ll save that for another day when there’s not so much to talk about
I agree that neither Jim will get in but wonderful wee Diane will. This will b e great news for the Unionist people of Northern ireland
Mairseal – Alliance leafleted all of the Short Strand and the surrounding areas of a slightly different political complexion about 10 days ago. Your dog must have eaten the leaflet before you had a chance to read it! Also, I know Naomi and her team did quite a bit of door knocking in the Strand over the winter, well before the election season started.
On a different point to a different person, I think it’s hysterical that people giving us all lectures on how the UCUNF are going to top the poll are having a wee barbie four days before polling day; shouldn’t you have more useful things to do? You lot really do think you can just click your heels and the world will be like it was in 1968, don’t you?
Don’t take too much credence of Paddy Power’s assessment of the Alliance vote – they were bloody awful at calling our vote in 2007 and by the looks of things, they’re bloody awful this time as well. Ian has impressed the huge section of the electorate looking for something resembling real politics and will surprise a few of you this Thursday.
In fairness – one positive factor in seeing Diane Dodds elected would be she is from Banbridge. That would be a first for Europe.
The DUP and SF are basically still guaranteed seats, but the third is still up for grabs and transfers will be crucial. I still have to think that one through though.
Dodds will get elected. But I think people are building up Allister way too much. As many people have said before, the extremists always vote and Allister seems to have gotten what obviously was a small support at the start of the election and have created hype on the internet. Especially on places like this. For me it will be interesting how the UC, SDLP, Alliance and Greens do. This could be an election for the politics text books.
Sammy
I’ll take your word for it! I didn’t mention the alliance leaflet because it wasn’t relating to the election and the only mention on issues in the strand was one very small article on street lighting as I recall. Plus it is usually very scarce and intermittent in terms of actually coming out through the doors, I think it was about the third I have gotten since Máire Hendron was elected a few years ago.
Naomi didn’t rap my door to be fair, but at least she was in rapping some doors at that stage and fair play to her for that. Not sure what has happened since then but I’ll continue to keep my eye out as always.
I have come to truly hate and despise Slugger at election times, when a debate gets to the point where it is just figurative shouting, i think we should all go home.
I agree with Pancho’s comment above regarding Jim Allister, but i would extend that to all parties and their posters on this site. Everyone knows that the political class view these comments on a daily basis and that they are stalked with people from the respective camps, who suddenly show up here and start to blog constantly about how great their respective camps are doing in this selection. This year in particular it has been the turn of the Unionist parties to do this, especially the UUP and TUV, with the DUP not far behind.
Do yourselves all a favour lads, every comment on this site is pure spin to put the wind up whoever might read this, go outside and enjoy the rest of the sunshine. The credibility of Slugger as a forum for debate is done enormous harm by this spectacle an no one takes it for anything else than the spin it is…believe me.
I will vote Jim Allister as opposition to the DUP going into Government with SF
People who vote Allister I have to ask what the TUV will do for Northern Ireland if they promote direct rule.
Allister voters clearly don’t understand politics at all.
As someone who will be voting Allister No.1 (and just to clarify Im not a party activist or likely to ever be one etc), I believe personally that this election is about Europe and it will have no real implications on the Assembly other than perhaps as a wake up call for the DUP and CUs, who for so long have taken votes for granted. Look at what happened in the balance of power between SF and the SDLP – it didnt make nationalism any weaker. Back to my point… in Europe which Unionist candidate has the intellectual skills needed to understand legislation after legislation that may be imposed on us – Allister. Nicholson should be an expert as he has been there so long, but my trouble is that he seems to disappear after the election. I just dont have any confidence in Diane Dodds’ ability and I dont believe that the DUP despite being eurosceptics, have been involved as they should. Their attendances at Europe have been attrocious. Allister is a eurosceptic, but he has got on with the job and I didnt notice any other candidate accuse him of lying about their performances in Europe – he has outperformed them by miles! He showed again in the Politics show he has a sound grasp of funding and what we as a country should be aiming for and I believe he is right in that we aren’t getting all out of Europe that we should be. Thats why Im giving him my vote – simple.
actually the viewing figures for the politics show last week were 150,000 so I’m sure a few of them would have been DUP supporters
will be interesting to see this weeks figures
I wonder if Diane’s Cecil Walker moment will make it to youtube
could have better viewing figures than Susan Boyle
actually the viewing figures for the politics show last week were 150,000 so I’m sure a few of them would have been DUP supporters…………..
have you seen the weather out there? log off and go look
actually the viewing figures for the politics show last week were 150,000………
where did you get that info – on the BARB site it only lists up to 17th may
What are you worrying about who is a unionist if it is europe. If you are basing who you vote for on europe and want the best out of europe for Northern Ireland then why not vote for SDLP, Greens and Alliance. Those three candidates are all positive when it come to europe and will work with others no questions asked.
Allister only wastes his time moaning in brussels , nothing has proven the opposite.
^^^ Was towards PB
Pancho
You can still be a eurosceptic and participate in Europe. We need a unionist who will tell the unionist people what’s what. A prime example was that of the Peace Fund – unionists on the ground are not a well organised people and that has shown through in that the nationalist community has received a sizeable portion of the funds.
I am certainly not a pro-european, but my taxes go towards its running costs, so I dont think Im being selfish etc lol
Every good business knows that you need different people in a team the thinker, the planter, the completer finisher etc but you need someone to question and analyise. It would be a very bad thing if everyone in the EU were just yes men!
On perhaps another point, I will be using my transfer for all the parties you mentioned!