“Do you need percentages?”
On the Politics Show European campaign special, the DUP candidate, Diane Dodds, managed to unite all three incumbents, the chairman of the meeting, Jim Fitzpatrick, and the audience.. and all with one letter from Defra..
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…if University education were universally available and availed of, the country would collapse in one generation
The words of Brian O’Nolan, variously Brian Ó Nualláin, Myles na gCopaleen, Myles na Gopaleen and, of course, Flann O’Brien. That O’Nolan was referencing his own dissolute student days at UCD only mildly distracts from the prophetic undertone of his words: I paid no attention whatsoever to books or study and regarded lectures as a [...] read our review »
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Christopher Hitchens, 1949 – 2011
Writer Christopher Hitchens has died aged 62. He was as contrary as he was brilliant. Here is a brief In Memoriam from Vanity Fair (his outlet of choice since 1992) and, here, a longer tribute from his friend Christopher Buckley Stanley in The New Yorker. Better, perhaps, though to post one of Hitchens’ own writings in [...] read our review »
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Talking to a brick wall: how to make politicians listen?
It took me a long time to warm to advertising agencies. The first time I worked with one I was working in sales management on Fairy Washing Up Liquid. I was due to attend a meeting at which I was to be told what consumers really thought of the brand. I remember my reluctance to [...] read our review »
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Going on the sectarian headcount De Bruin, Dodds and Allister to be elected in that order with the Shinners topping the poll. Not enough Nationalist transfers to bring Alban in as other candidates are eliminated. Most of these transfers will go to Unionists.
tal
Your obviously on the night shift at MI5 Hollywood tonight with that silly attempt at black propaganda.
Stick to smoking out republicans and homosexuals my friend!!
Paul
Hope that wasn’t a St. Peter denial or I’m (NOT) Spartacus! Does thy protest too much?
Paul,
I’m reminded of a profound quote I once heard proclaimed by a sage, reflective elderly man:
“He who smelt it, invariably dealt it.”
Here are my views on the candidates:
De Brun – Don’t agree with her politics at all however she clearly outperformed Maginis and should now top the poll.
Parley – A little bit pompous and without much credibility, should please the wishy, washy voters.
Agnew – Very scruffy, performed poorly and clearly the weakest candidate.
Maginis – His rhetoric was tired and he was clearly the wrong choice by the SDLP.
Dodds – I was aware that she was weak on European issues but her performance was awful, she may end up not getting elected.
Allister – Clearly the most competent and capable candidate, strong, knowledgeable with the best MEP track record of all sitting MEP’s. I don’t think NI can afford not to have him elected.
Outsider
What did you think of Jim Nicholson?
Sorry PB I genuinely forgot about him.
I think Nicholson is a little past his sell by date, we really need talented workhorses in Europe and Jim comes across as stale and inadequate probably better suited to a role as councillor.
Having watched the debate it was interesting.
I agree that Parsley and Agnew were not bad but it probably will not matter much. Parsley’s line at the end was good but maybe a bit sanctimonious.
Maginness was far too quiet: good points when he made them but too little.
DeBrun was pretty good but again no pressure
Nicholson was all right but was not exciting, said too little and the comment about a non united party was in my view funny but ill-conceived.
Allister was good though yes as strident as ever: He covered the issues and made his points; he will not win over Alliance voters but that was never his aim. he was after DUP and UUP votes and he did himself considerable good.
I am of course biased but Dodds was very poor: shrill, ill-informed and simply incorrect.
The question is does this matter? The debate alone not much. The real question is will the newspapers pick up on it and run with a Dodds disaster story. If they do and the BBC keep repeating it, this could cause the DUP significant damage. Cecil Walker’s infamous performance was not the only thing which scuppered him but it helped. Diane;s QUB performance alone will not sink her but if it gets legs the last week could look really difficult for the DUP.
Outsider
Are you Jim Allister?
Hi Lurig,
I’m a non aligned Unionist.
Outsider
I agree with most of what you said, but Parsley wasnt that bad and Agnew was quite likeable – but he didnt push the green agenda
Hi PB
Out of the two I may be tempted to vote Agnew, I was unimpressed with Parsleys dig at the Orange and Green ‘rabble’. Its sanctimonious talk like this that will fail to get the Alliance into the political mainstream.
Overall I would like to see Allister voted in as he NI’s best candidate regardless of what people think of the man himself. Its disappointing that because he is an independent he is automatically written off. Does anyone believe he has a serious chance come polling day?
Outsider
That was a joke on my side. Anyway If I was a Unionist I must admit I would seriously consider voting for Allister. He’s consistant, shrewd and knows that there is a Unionist constituency who agrees with him and where there are votes. It’s a pity that his sectarian slant, for Nationalists anyway, on politics overshadows his obvious capabilities and intelligence. I think he will get in along with Dodds who makes George Bush junior look like a Harvard Don and global intellectual. She has to be the worst DUP candidate in any election I have ever encountered but will be elected on the DUP name alone. It makes the old joke about the monkey wrapped in a Union Flag being elected so true. The DUP must be desperate and devoid of European volunteers for Diane to get the nod. She is truly AWFUL.
Outsider / Lurig
Unionism would be better off with two strong unionists elected – but theres only one strong candidate: Allister.
I hope people do see Dodd’s performance as it will help show everyone what a farce elections here tend to be ie a head count rather than competence.
I hope Allister will make it and like I said earlier today, feedback appears to be good in this area
Hi Lurig
Very interesting comments you have made. To be honest its unusual to have such a capable and gifted Unionist standing for election, it is however usual that such a person is running a high risk of not being elected.
With the tough economic times people such as Dodds, Maginnis and Nicholson cannot help this province enough, we have to vote for the best candidates. I have already been told that voting for Allister is a wasted vote as he is out of the running but I still think ability should succeed.
As a Nationalist is Allister a person you would consider giving a vote to?
Hi PB
How many votes do you predict Allister will get? The smart money is on the 80,000 mark but that may not be enough to ensure him a seat.
This election is really coming across as not having much to do with Europe as far as the Unionists are concerned. Its a bit like a referendum on Unionist Party politics. Sinn Fein will get their seat without a doubt. Dodds was at one point a 1/50 chance to get a seat, so it would be a massive shock if she lost out, and a major blow to the DUP.
Hi Patrick
To be fair Allister does have a strong European track record and when given the opportunity he clearly is at home discussing many of the varied issues dealt with by this parliament.
How many votes do you predict Allister will get? The smart money is on the 80,000 mark but that may not be enough to ensure him a seat.
If the turnout is about 500,000 like last time. I believe the quota will be about 133,000 including transfers if needed. 80,000 would be a long way away.
Outsider
I was told this morning that in my area 9 out of 10 people who answered their doors yesterday said they would vote Allister, and that canvassing in Ballynahinch and Kilkeel went really well.
Traditionally it would split slightly more for the DUP. Even my mum has said she would vote Allister and my brothers and some cousins – I havent been canvassing for Allister lol; this all has just come about through comments made.
Patrick
To me this is about having someone competent to represent me. There really only is the one choice as backed up by the programme today
Allister will win people over with his charisma alone. To feed him Dodds was a disgrace for it’s voters. He is a very able politician, but i can’t support his policies.
I would relish a confrontation between Allister and Paisley Jnr though. Could a room fit their heads and egos? Two hilariously pompous men. That would be great stuff.
Hi Outsider
I got the distinct impression that none of them had actually achieved anything in the EU Parliament. Maybe I am wrong but surely they would have been flagging any success.
Outsider
As a Nationalist I wouldn’t vote for Allister if he had my multi million pound winning lottery ticket in his hand and threatened to burn it…….. though right enough I probably would in such circumstances but you get my drift. Jim’s not my type of politician but I can see why he would appeal to many Unionists. He’s a far better and informed politician than either Dodds or Nicholson but his sectarian glaze overshadows everything else. For Nationalists he’s a throw back to the old Unionist Stormont days where the Taigs knew their place and minded the cows on the Twelfth AND where the B Specials & RUC ruled the Fenians with an iron rod. I think he will get elected as I believe that many older and dissaffected Unionists are still in total denial and hark after those days. It’s all in vain as Sinn Fein will be in government until Hell freezes over. There will be NO going back to apartheid rule in the North which many of Allister’s supporters hope for.
Hi Patrick
I believe Allister was voted one of the top performing MEP’s by an independent body, this was within a recent edition of the Newsletter.
I can’t be sure but I believe he finished 47th out of 700.
Hi Lurig
Out of interest how will you be voting from 1-7? If don’t wish to reply that’s OK.
There was a website who ranked each MEP over their voting record etc and Allister was 5th out of the UK MEPS and 18th out of the whole Parliament. Nicholson was down about 80th and de Brun something like 183rd
Dodds was pretty awful today. Allister totally out performed her.
I’ve no time for Allister, but defo. won the Allister/Dodds fight.
Nicholson is an affable sort of bloke but seems a bit dim, the party unity comment was quite funny especially when the issue over the MP for North Down was mentioned, but he’ll probably hold his seat.
De Brun was fine and overall came across as being ‘up for the job’ again. Was never really pressed on issues and had an easy enough ride today.
Maginness was ok, but the thoughts of Alastiar McDonnell being in the same party puts me off him.
The green candidate was ok the Alliance guy looks like a bit of a ‘Tory boy’.
I’ll give De Brun my 1 and can’t rallly think of a 2, let alone a 3.
You can bet on Allister at 4/1 or 5/1 to get a seat. But if there was something, anything that he could say he actually achieved in Europe or even prevented, would he not be shouting it from the rooftops? If he even brought a few million in from Europe or saved us a few million, we would surely have heard of it.
Patrick
Have a look at the rankings on openeurope.org.uk
Im surprised Allister hasnt been shouting about this.
The choice for the Unionists is
Old School,,,,,,,,,,,,,, Jim Nicholson
Moderate (I know, who would have thought?) Dodds
Extreme………………Allister.
If Allister wins the message for the DUP will be you are not being tough enough on Sinn Fein. If Dodds wins the message is the DUP voters will vote for whoever you stick in front of them with a DUP badge on.
Outsider
I’m not trying to dodge your question but less than a week until the elections I honestly don’t know what my first preference or any after that are. I would love to go into the booth and vote for people whose policies and knowledge of the issues I like. However I believe that the Unionist candidates have turned this back into the old sectarian headcount with their anti-Sinn Fein rant and many Nationalists have bit on the fishing line. I know people who were going to vote for Alban and the SDLP but then took great offence at Diane Dodd’s rabid attack on Sinn Fein possibly topping the poll and who now say they will vote for De Bruin just to spite the DUP. Dodds has been a brilliant electoral asset for Sinn Fein who were under great scrutiny already within Nationalism. Well done Diane, you have successfully galvinised the uncertain Nationalist vote back towards Sinn Fein and by your performance on Inside Politics turned many Unionists to Jim Allister.
My vote will be calculated to cause as much chaos as one vote can for Ulster unionism
1. Babs – she’ll probably top the poll anyways and I think wee Diane might just cry if the old spinster did and she loses the Rev’s proud tradition, so I’ll contribute to that impending sense of despair.
2. Maginness – very likeable, honest chap. Not only would I love to see two nationalists take the seats on offer but I’d like to see him come third on a personal level.
3. Allister – to stoke, in any way that I possibly can, the flames raging as a result of the unionist civil war.
PB
It looks like you get marks for showing up voting and filling in forms. My point is What have any of them actually achieved for NI? It really looks like zero from where I am standing.
Thanks Lurig, you in no way avoided the question.
My votes will be as follows:
1. Allister
2. Dodds
3. Nicholson
4. Agnew
5. Parsley
6. Maginness
7. de Brun.
Outsider
I would add that tal’s surmise wouldn’t be too off the mark. I definately could see many Nationalists giving a high preference to Allister to spite Dodds and Nicholson and cause further confusion within Unionism. I actually believe that many committed Shinners will vote this way.
Outsider,
I think it’s more that the truth hurts, doesn’t it? Or are you seriously trying to deny the Dodds/Allister tirade was a rabble?
The reason I’m switching my vote to Alliance at this election is precisely that they’ve found a candidate to stand up for those of us who are fed up with the orange-green nonsense, not just mutter about it on the sidelines.
As for “wishy-washy”, the Alliance manifesto is by far the most detailed and well researched (and European related) – but don’t let the facts get in the way, huh?
I’ll be:
1. Parsley
2. Agnew
3. Maginness
4. de Brun
… none of the so-called Unionists deserve to get anywhere near Strasbourg.
Correct LURIG. But as you imply, it could have only limited effect given that only committed Shinners and cynical hangers-on like myself are likely to do so. With no offence intended, I can’t see the vast majority of the nationalist community being that calculating / mischievous for such a strategy to have any real impact.
I hate to say it but the “unionists started it” – if Doddsy hadn’t gone all hyper about unionists (i.e. Protestants) topping the pole and Allister hadn’t injected his dose of indulgent sectarianism and general loathing of republicans into this election then I certainly wouldn’t be so motivated to really go out and hurt unionists.
… none of the so-called Unionists deserve to get anywhere near Strasbourg.
Junior
The Alliance party claim to be a moderately pro Unionist party, do you want to revise your statement above?
[i]so motivated to really go out and hurt unionists. [/i]
Bollocks – I mean strictly in an electoral sense only, not literally. Hopefully that should prevent the filth from tracking me down for incitement or whatever concoted excuse they may come up with.
Patrick
Here in south down I know Allister has been campaigning and speaking up for our fishing and farming communities – as I would hope others will have too. He also has addressed meetings explaining to the same people about the rural development fund and how this is claimed etc so we can get additional funding. Realistical with only 3 MEPs we are kinda limited in what we can expect. But to me Allister has been the most proactive of our existing MEPs.
I think you are spot on tal.
Many Nationalists were very open minded on this election and for the first time in a long time were seriously debating the failings, misgivings and weakness of the two Nationalist parties. Their record in the Assembly has been very poor and both Sinn Fein & the SDLP have been getting pelters on the doorsteps. However along comes Diane Dodds with her obsession in topping the poll and Jim Allister’s smash Sinn Fein agenda AND we resort to type. The antics of Unioniste have been a godsend to Sinn Fein whose constituency has been very critical of them BUT up pop Diane Dodds & Jim Allister. HEY PRESTO I predict the Shinners will now top the poll on the coat trails of bigoted Unionist politics. Honestly the Uncle Andy’s and Big Mervyn’s deserve all the negative publicity and awful politicians they elect.
Hi Lurig
I respect your views but its very difficult for Unionists to accept Sinn Fein in government, at least Allister is giving disenfranchised Unionists a voice.
Giving Unionists a voice! What???
He wants Dublin rule, are you not able to see that. It might be totally different from what he says but he’s campaigning for it. Luckily unionists have the DUP to protect us
Question Mark Question Mark
WOW ,whatever the DUP are paying you, its too much. Or maybe you are a Nationalist trying to make the DUP look even more silly.
Dodds has got to be the most annoying candidate i have ever came across in any election–but those of you who are saying that this is an electoral disaster fail to take into account the fact that the DUP have been nominating politicians of her ilk for years, and these nominations have often resulted in elections.
‘Can I also say’, I have nothing against Unionists so long as they maintain a certain civility–Allister and Dodds clearly fail to do so. Whilst the former is astute and well-mannered to some, his lack of negotiation with Sinn Fein is quite ridiculous in principle. Dodds, by comparison, not only riled me with her ‘union jack flying on city hall’ antics, but also with her absolute inability to remain calm and civil during the proceedings. I don’t think i’ve ever seen a political debate that was more divided in my entire life.
‘Can I also just say’ that if anyone watched Hearts and Minds during the week, you’ll find an interview very comparable to the infamous ‘Michael Howard versus Paxman’ one way back in the 90′s, whereby Noel asks Diane if she has a position on the environment and carbon emissions, about 7 or 8 times. Diane, ever the willing Unionist robot, decided to talk about the Party’s stance rather than her own–displaying an absence of personal thought.
My thoughts in general on the candidates:
De Brun: Although she often gets a lot of abuse she certainly behaved and spoke well enough in that programme. Now, cordiality and politeness are perhaps secondary to political ability, but I think that both would go a long way to restoring progress and professionalism on all sides. She knew what she was talking about when she spoke–but the show was all about the Jim Allister versus DUP Dodds for the most part, and no-one else got a look in.
Alban: All-Bran peddled the usual SDLP line about the past institutions working, but displayed little charisma (like de Brun). His party isn’t on the up, he clearly isn’t overly happy and comes off with the same trash to show this unhappiness. In any case he is obviously a level-headed, intelligent individual with an open mind to debate at the very least. What he said was palpably unremarkable but probably has more substance than most others at the table.
Jim Nicholson: Looks very tired in many ways, and his not publishing his expenses is very strange. Whilst he came across best of all the ‘orange’ politicians the UUP would have done better to put someone new in who would be able to impress people with his rhetoric and charisma. Like Alban, more substance owing to his clearly decent record.
Diane Dodds: “BOTH Belfast (1) AND Europe (2) AND London (3). Please do not elect this woman. That is all.
Jim McAlister: clearly a bigot, but certainly displays charisma and fortitude. Comes across as intelligent and well (mis)informed on key issues whilst being able to drag it down into a Unionist dogfight between him and the DUP. Would be something of a nightmare if elected because his ego would inflate to the size of Lough Neagh in such a case. Whatever happens, he is sure to provide some heavy-hearted introspection on the DUP’s part and some very light-hearted entertainment on the nationalist/small ‘u’ unionist side.
Agnew: Just because you come across with Environmental and Referendum cliches does not make you a good politician. Looks like someone best suited to a back-seat role because although he appears well informed in some ways I think he would be found out in an elected institution. The Green Party are a glorified pressure group. Which brings me on to…
Parsley: Pompous, if well mannered. When I was talking about someone with charisma for the UUP/Con I meant someone like him, who knows how to debate well enough, even if he had a long time on the sidelines to think of his one ‘rabble line’. Again, glorified pressure group party in lack of substance shocker–the reason that divisions exist so badly here is because of human nature on one hand, and history on the other. ignoring that problem is not going to go away, and plenty of politicians in Sinn Fein, the UUP and the SDLP have been able to nail their colours to the mast whilst getting very inclusive policies into their legislative. The alliance party is a unionist party without the balls to say they are a unionist party, and pomposity without substance is a very, very bad thing.
Sorry for the tangents. I’d vote for SF first preference and SDLP second, anyone else is a wasted vote. Apologies if I offend anyone.
Outsider
I totally accept that many Unionists can’t accept Sinn Fein in government but likewise many Nationalists and Republicans don’t even recognise the Northern statelet let alone go into government in it. It goes against everything Irish Nationalists believe in so unless Unionists make the Executive work I can only predict a more hardline Nationalist outlook as the years go by and the sectarian headcount changes. Unionists MUST make this Executive work or I predict that Nationalist politicians will totally abandon ANY Northern political solution and focus on the South AND all island politics. When Nationalists become a majority, within the next 10 – 15 years, their tolerance might have been tarnished by their experiences of their Unionist neighbours so Unionism should negotiate a respectful outcome now.
Speaking to some Unionist friends today about this – they’re former UUP voters who went over to voting for DUP about the same time as wee Jeffrey split – Dodds’ performance has ensured that their 1st preference votes go to Nicholson. Dodds to spur a UUP resurgence? Nicely done Diane.
(TUV) Turncoats Unionist Voice could cost Unionism a seat, it was interesting to hear Allister propose a new Committee for Stormont in a debate with Dodd’s for the three MEPs to sit on as well. I thought he was against extra waste; this is hardly a sign of someone not wanting to share power with Sinn Fein. In fact let’s look at his record.
A) Prepared to share power with Sinn Fein in a super council styled model
B) Agree that not elements of the St Andrews Agreement were bad
C) Wont reveal expenses in Europe
D) Now proposing a new Committee for Stormont
E) Left the DUP over one issue wanting to have a longer testing period for Sinn Fein before agreeing to go into a Voluntary Coalition
F) Helped to negotiate St Andrews Agreement
G) Double standards employs his own family but blasts everyone else for doing so
H) Owns the office but claims rent for it
I) Airline fares were is the left over tax payer’s money?
Seems like a lot of double standards by the (TUV)
lol @ Silverline
Is there anything about double posting?
I’d be interested to hear what Unionists thought of De Bruin’s performance. I thought it was noteable that she didn’t rise to Allister’s baiting and focussed on the European issues. I would guess she is being careful not to piss them off too much.
Outsider:
The Alliance party claim to be a moderately pro Unionist party
No, they do not.
As a Nationalist is Allister a person you would consider giving a vote to?
I’m not a nationalist but I thought this question was interesting.
Allister stands for sectarian tribal politics. He made that point very clearly during the debate in his references to the needs of “Protestants”. I don’t really understand why in this day and age we need to continue to frame politics in terms of religion, especially not when increasing numbers do not practice anymore. I’m sure, if pushed, it would be reasonably straightforward to get him to make the usual glib assertions about Catholics all voting for terrorists.
Secondly, Jim Allister took several days to get a statement out about the McDaid killing. Rather than condemning the murder in the strongest possible terms, and calling upon stiff action to be taken against the paramilitary perpetrators, he made some wishy-washy reference to the PSNI stepping up patrols to ensure peace within the community. That falls far short of what I expect from a democratic politician who is supposed to be implaccably opposed to violence, and the fact that he took several days to get a statement out, while in the meantime managing to put out a detailed piece of vitriol about the history of Martin McGuinness, suggests to me that he does not prioritize opposition to sectarian murder. It is clear that a vote for Allister is a vote to strike down progress, and a vote to solidify the sectarian base within this country.
For these reasons it is very difficult for me to transfer to Allister ahead of Dodds and Allister will be at the very bottom of my list. Dodds’ performance was woeful, the DUP made a serious miscalculation in putting her in the position. I felt sorry for her after that mauling, I was left with the feeling she probably left the hall and went somewhere private for a good cry.