Irish Times polling figures
In the Irish Times Stephen Collins looks at the results of what seems to have been some fairly rigorous polling. ["The poll was conducted from Tuesday to Thursday of this week among a representative sample of 2,000 voters. Face-to-face interviews were conducted with 500 people in each of the four Euro constituencies. The margin of error is 2 per cent."] Overall party performances here. And Cian has more EU details at Irish Election. But of particular interest may be the figures for the Dublin EU constituency.
In Dublin, Gay Mitchell of Fine Gael leads the field with 28 per cent [+2], followed by Proinsias De Rossa of the Labour Party with 25 per cent [+4]. There is a big gap between them and the chasing field, which is led by Mary Lou McDonald of Sinn Féin, on 11 per cent [-3], followed by Eoin Ryan and Joe Higgins on 9 per cent each [-2 and +2 respectively]. Deirdre De Búrca of the Greens is next on 6 per cent, followed by former Green Patricia McKenna, who has slipped back to 5 per cent, the same as Eibhlín Byrne of Fianna Fáil. Caroline Simons of Libertas is on 2 per cent. The transfers from the weaker candidates will determine who wins the three-way contest for the final seat.
Mack,
I’m not convinced that a move to the left is the answer either – my point is that when the left tried to address issues like the property market they were ridiculed by the very people from the banking sector that will or should be going to prison and by the ruling political class.
FG have zero credibility in terms of their own reading of the situation which anybody without a vested interest would have told the plain people of Ireland they were heading for serious problems even if few could have foretold the global crisis. FG fannying about over stamp duty highlights their misjudegment.
What we need now is for a proper informed National debate which considers all the options including those voices on the left which were ignored at precisely the point at which they should have been listened to.
See this graph, put together by Michael Taft over at notes on the front, showing comparative tax takes for corporation, personal, and indirect taxes in 2006. Personal taxes have increased significantly since then..
http://notesonthefront.typepad.com/.a/6a00d8342f650553ef01156f81e70a970c-pi
Sammy -
I remember David McWilliams (who on twitter has backed George Lee, but was the orginator of the banking guarantee as an idea), George Lee himself, Eddie Hobbs (to some degree, another FG backer), Alan Ahearne (an economic advisor to FF now), Morgan Kelly highlighting the property bubble an it’s dangers to Irish society. In fairness a couple of Socialist party members set up thepropertypin.com – an excellent website (an were supported by right wing posters / economic experts in that endeavor). But I didn’t really here much from any of the political parties about the lax regulation that allowed salary multiple to baloon and the banks to take undue risk (McWilliams highlighted this danger at every turn since around 2000).. FF fecked up royally, but no party can claim glory (except perhaps the SP)…
Mack,
I think that is a fair enough summary.
Mack,
‘FF fecked up royally, but no party can claim glory (except perhaps the SP)..’
You got that right .
IWSMWDI,
‘ What we need now is for a proper informed National debate which considers all the options including those voices on the left ‘
That’s what should happen . But FG & Labour are going for the ‘political jugular’ and trying to pin this ‘crisis ‘ on FF alone . This imo could backfire on them – not in the upcoming elections but later when heads are cooler .
The problem for the SP is that while people don’t take kindly to those who tell them in advance that their house is going to burn dou so wn and then appear on the doorstep amid a pile of ashes and say -’See I told you so – now will you buy this smoke detector ‘