New Force and the danger of déjà vu
I must admit to welcoming the Ulster Conservative and Unionist – New Force. If it produced a new mould breaking era of non sectarian politics I would be delighted. However, I would suggest that there are worrying echoes of the past in this new set up. I am of course referring to Trimble’s UUP: I know the comparison is far from exact but there are dangers lurking. Trimble’s leadership of the UUP was a triumph. This was the man who helped negotiate a new devolved form of government: he managed to move his party from opposition to power sharing and into the leadership of devolved government. He himself, managed to move from being the rather prickly, difficult, highly intelligent academic and sometime Drumcree marcher to being an internationally respected leader, welcomed at the White House and recipient of a Nobel Peace prize. He then went on to pioneer moving the UUP out of sectarian Northern Ireland politics and to a new future where “Decent People Vote(d) Ulster Unionist” and the UUP was “for all of us” and “Simply British.”
Of course then there is the reality: Trimble was the most unbelievably appalling negotiator; even his own supporters gave up any pretence of believing his assorted lines in the sand. He complained and complained and then failed to stop concession after concession to republicans. He was lauded by assorted people outwith Northern Ireland and indeed congratulated by Gerry Adams within it. He then presided over the most flawless destruction of a political party in recent British history, taking his count of seats from 10 to 1 in only two general elections; assisted by a manifesto which the 1983 Labour party would have regarded as inept.
Why do I bring all that back up again?
I am concerned that the spring in the New Force’s step is in part based on the favourable attention which they have received amongst moderate unionist politicos. These usually very nice, highly intelligent and well educated people from the Pale see themselves as “simply British” and as non sectarian, reasonable people. The sad reality for them is, however, that most people in Northern Ireland are less interested in politics. I am unconvinced that terribly many will see this new force as anything terribly exciting, fronted as it is by the same rather tired and indeed sad UUP leadership. Many middle class unionists within the Pale are not that moderate (I used to be one). Also moving outside the Pale the simple reality is that non tribal politics is not viable out west where there be dragons and I see little sign of it in the north of Northern Ireland where the Presbyterians of North Antrim and Orangemen of East Londonderry are unlikely to be easily convinced.
The New Force clearly wishes to attract pro union Roman Catholics: again a very laudable aim but again one which Trimble tried in the past. The New Force’s supporters can of course counter that they have lost the baggage of Trimble’s jig up the Garvaghy Road: but he had pretty comprehensively dumped that years before and the pro union Catholics showed little inclination to ride to his rescue on 23rd May 2005. In addition the senior UUP leaders who were there when Trimble performed political voluntary euthanasia on himself and involuntary euthanasia on his party are still there; convincing large numbers of nationalists and pro union RCs of their completely non sectarian nature may be difficult.
Another potential problem is the apparent slight differences between the two parties in this match made in heaven. Even leaving aside Sylvia Hermon (their only significant politician who can legitimately claim to have defeated a DUP candidate) there do seem to be some subtle differences between the UUP and the Conservatives. These are differences which may become more evident during an election campaign and will undoubtedly be mercilessly exploited by their opponents. It must be remembered that the public do not like divided political parties: again one need only look back to Trimble’s leadership to remember that for much of his time he had internal opposition and that air of division and uncertainty is always politically corrosive.
The other thing which worries me for the New Force is the appearance of shiny English Tory types. I know I have discussed this before but I do feel at times that some in the UUP are bewitched by a bit of Received Pronunciation, ideally along with a public school education and an Oxbridge degree. I well remember many of us the same age as Steven King suggesting that although he was hard working, intelligent and affable; the fact that he was popular with the media especially in GB and RoI did not mean his ideas were going to take the UUP to heroic successful glory (unless one regards the Charge of the Light Brigade in that context). Again I fear that the New Force could be bewitched by party advisors etc. brought in by the mainland Tories. These people are extremely good at their job; however, that job is in England (and to a limited extent in Wales and an even lesser one in Scotland). They use things like polling data and such like which are notoriously inaccurate in Northern Ireland. Much as the New Force supporting denizens of the Pale may wish it: in electoral terms Ulster is not the same as Finchley.
There is a danger that the New Force is repeating exactly the same mistakes as Trimble’s UUP did: by focusing on and listening to themselves and sympathetic politicos and journalists; believing their own propaganda and spin and losing sight of their own electorate. By doing this they may manage to alienate a considerable proportion of their core support and yet pick up very few new voters: just because they think that they are presenting a “New Force” does not mean that the Northern Ireland electorate will agree with them. It is of course possible that this New Force may break the mould of NI politics; alternatively it may have no effect or even decrease Jim Nicholson’s chances of election. Clearly I am biased but there is a warning from recent history.
I see this new farce is continuing with apparently 10 uup mlas angry over the exclusion of the UUP logo from campaign material. U CUNFs
FYU,
The Tories have about ten million votes across the UK. They don’t have the local touch, but believe me, they know far more than the UUP know about winning elections. Speaking strictly theoretically, their knowledge could indeed be used to restore the UUP’s fortunes. The reason why it won’t is more to do the UUP being far too set in their ways to stand for it.
The UUP know nothing about how to fight elections. For most of their history, they never had to fight one; just put up a candidate who would breeze in on the tribal vote. The crunch came when the DUP decided to challenge them in their core seats, and won. From what I have seen of them around here, they haven’t a baldy about how to campaign on issues on the ground, or canvass the constituency properly, or use technology to track voter patterns and monitor the response on the doorsteps.
seems some in the UUP are posing a fightback to the Tory takeover
http://unionistsnotconservatives.wordpress.com/
Posted by Seymour Major on Mar 01, 2009 @ 03:44 PM:
For the same reason, we should not be using Union Jacks at elections. UUP activists need to understand this. In order to win, we have to campaign as Conservatives, just as they do in England. We dont need to go on about the Union. We need to get away from the politics of “the Flag”
That is why the “Conservative Party” should be prosecuted under the Trades Description Act.
Posted by Seymour Major on Mar 01, 2009 @ 10:55 PM:
I just dont believe that the UUP are capable of campaigning the way we want them to. If their leaders had genuine insight and recognised the problems, we could have organised courses and workshops to help their activists because I assure you that the latter would need training to campaign to Catholics.
Reminds me of Terence O’Neill saying “Give a Catholic a decent house and he’ll behave like a Protestant…”
What planet are the New Farce on? Will they make it to June without disintegrating?
Reading some of the contributions here, it feels more and more like the UUP borrowed the “Conservative” brand in a half-hearted attempt to improve their fortunes without having to do any work. I don’t think the Conservatives are taking it as seriously as some might believe.
The Tories have about ten million votes across the UK.
Em yea, but they do have a distinct advantage that they are a National party whereas the UU’s base is little more than a hundred miles wide. Let’s try to be a little more sensible…
Speaking strictly theoretically, their knowledge could indeed be used to restore the UUP’s fortunes.
I don’t disagree, however everyone knows that if the UU’s are to get any advice and assistance it will be coming from Conservative HQ in London, not their ‘hq’ in Saintfield. After all the NI Tories 3,400 votes aren’t even enough to get a single MLA elected across most of Northern Ireland.
The UUP know nothing about how to fight elections. For most of their history, they never had to fight one; just put up a candidate who would breeze in on the tribal vote
Generalisations are great, especially if you’re a supporter of a party then thrives on them – the APNI. But yea you’re completely right, because since we won most of the seats in the old NI General Elections we haven’t changed a bit. We still all live in castles, but I’ll tell you one thing; you just can’t find a good butler these days.
it feels more and more like the UUP borrowed the “Conservative” brand in a half-hearted attempt to improve their fortunes without having to do any work.
You can think what you want but for this to work over here you have to admit it will be the UUP machine that will still be putting up the posters and knocking the doors. Our arrangement with the Conservatives is through London, not merely their NI branch.
Seymour Major,
You are a man amongst pigmies.
I hate to say I told you so about Cameron’s disgusting speech last year to the UUP Conference, but there you go.
If Fianna Fail ever get properly up and running in the North then I think you should join. Because Irish national politics WILL work in the North one day and rational 21st century people like your good self will realise that that is the route to normal western european democratic values on this island.
On the UUP website only the other day there was a priceless piece of vintage sectarian thinking in relation to the boundaries of Belfast and “Unionist people” being betrayed. It is an absolute wonder to me that the Tories ever thought they could work with this shite. That is why i was so profoundly shocked by Camneron’s speech… he was pandering to the absolute LOWEST instincts of ulster unionism. There was no way back after that.
Mick Fealty,
I think you should read Seynour’s post above and realise now just how crazed we who attacked your reaction to Cameron’s speech thought you were at the time…