“It wasn’t meant to be like this..”
In the Sunday Times, Liam Clarke has a critical assessment of Sinn Féin’s fortunes following their weekend Ard Fheis.
The party is struggling despite conditions that favour it. Parties of the far left and far right traditionally do well in recessions when establishment thinking is seen to falter. Nationalism can also prosper at moments of economic crisis.But to do so, a political movement needs a clear vision, must seize the popular imagination and develop policies that offer hope to the dissatisfied. This is what Sinn Fein lacks. Its history has not prepared it for the current situation. After the Good Friday agreement, failures and setbacks were not in the script. Sinn Fein assumed the glamour of the peace process, the sense of relief it engendered, and the apparently charmed leadership of Adams would pay political dividends indefinitely.
For a time the payback did flow. The party thrived by extracting concessions from the British and Irish governments in return for IRA weaponry. As its leaders shuttled between Downing Street, Dublin and the White House, the reflected glory burnished Sinn Fein’s credentials as the only nationalist party tough enough and influential enough to deal effectively with the DUP.
The process of selling the guns was played long and skilfully. But now it’s over, leaving Sinn Fein, in Sands’s image, looking rather like a lumbering, flightless dodo.
It wasn’t meant to be like this. Sinn Fein’s strategy was to move so quickly that it would never hit the ground. It would speedily enter government north and south, enabling it to squeeze unionists from both sides of the all-Ireland bodies and make the prospect of a united Ireland by 2016 look less of a hopeless case than it does now.
Read the whole thing.
Comrade Stalin,
who says they are favorites ? says my trusty investor advisor Patrick Power Esquire.
“They are in decline and it is hard to see how they will arrest that. ”
Wrong – they are up to 9%
“They can’t sit back and hope that the general situation will cause votes to come to them.”
Wrong again – Thats precisely whats happened – leftwingery has become fashionable now that ringwingery has made a pigs mickey (or at least perceived to have) out of the country’s finances.
“There’s no point in talking about a ceiling if you won’t talk about a timescale. ”
Well actually you might be only half wrong there -it would take a “political lifetime” ( that a proper poitical liftime – not the DUP version )for SF to get elected in some parts of Dublin for example.
“I can’t see there being an environment where these two parties could collaborate. ”
Probably wrong again on this one – any student of ROI politics will have observed far stranger and more diffiuclt liaisons – but they need to put on another 10 points or so between them before that could happen.
“Kensei adams is a dud with low level economic intelligence.”
We are in the middle of biggest economic catastrophe of all time and Grizzly looks like a guru compared to the mad feckers running the show.
CS
I have a suspicion many former SF voters will stay at home. Of course, I can’t prove that, but on the other hand I can’t see what message SF are going to go to their electorate with.
I have a suspicion that the highly motivated SF electorate will turn out like they’ve done for every other election. I have a fear the SDLP vote may collapse, like it did in that council by-election, screwing nationalism.
They are in decline and it is hard to see how they will arrest that.
Polls shortly after the Northern Bank Robbbery – 8%. At last election – 7%. Current poll – 95. They have stagnated, but are stable. They might lose seats on that, they might gain seats. Depends on transfers and relative performance of other parties.
But hey, don’t let the facts get in the road.
DC
Kensei adams is a dud with low level economic intelligence.
I don’t think I mentioned anything about Adams anywhere…..? As it is, Adams is a fairly skilled politician, if for nothing managing to turn around the RM and remain alive.
I’m not a fan of most of SF’s current economic policy but taht’s not the same thing.
Sammy entirely incorrect, in fact the banks here would not without intense persuasion meet SF. They did not meet because sf are not up to speed with the issues.
Tell me sammy in fact quote please, give me a specific quote by adams, that helps with recovery of the problem with a sf diagnosis of the right way out of the problem.
So I put it to you that you give me such a strategic way out by sf please. Thanks dc.
SILLY kensei, politics and economcs are intertwined! Unless you are dud, like adams of course!
DC,
I presume you are following some ideological path otherwise rather than worrying about those who have been deeply critical about government policy – particulalry on the housing/building boom you would be questioning the economic credentials of the crazy feckers in FF (and FG) who were quite happy for the country to be run like a casino.
Qoute sammy please yeah?
Ken
“Polls shortly after the Northern Bank Robbbery – 8%. At last election – 7%. Current poll – 9%. They have stagnated, but are stable.”
It’s not nearly as straightforward as your figures may make it look.
Nor is it as optimistic as some once believed.
As Chris said in March 2007 – Sinn Fein gets bounce in latest polls.
Of course, the SF performance in the Northern Ireland Executive since then may well have had an influence on voter opinion in Ireland as well..
Optimistically, ‘stagnating’ about sums it up.
But that permanent protest vote tends to go to parties of opposition. Not parties in [Northern] government.
That’s a circle yet to be squared by Sinn Féin.
Sammy. Sorry *quote*; so give me the sf strategic quote out of this event of wholesale financial failure that should otherwise be a normal safe and secure place for customers to invest in banks; give me a sf definition, on behalf of the people of the irish republic, of a way out of this. I am not asking for a quirky grievance interpretation, that many at sf ard fheis favour like that favourable to c donnelley and such like – it is *fantasy*. But instead proper, and adequate, answers to these southern problems.
Thanks dc.
Sorry Chris *Donnelly*, I am on fidgety t-mobile phone sorry!!
This is a long thread. Has anyone used it to point out that while Gerry was attacking the bankers at the Ard Fheis, their own former Chairman (Phil Flynn) and current advisor, is one of the few bankers in the RoI to actually fall on his sword? Of course that was for reasons other than the credit crunch.
SF = zero credibility on the economy or much else.
Just give me a quote me a Sammy, was immer du willst, ja?
Pete
No, Pete it is exactly that straightforward.
Nor is it as optimistic as some once believed.
People assumed that SF were under polling. While probably still true here, it’s been comprehensively blown out of the water in the Republic.
Second. Party optimistic before election, reality hits in after. It happens. Neither parties or the world collapse over it.
As Chris said in March 2007 – Sinn Fein gets bounce in latest polls.
Are you fucking kidding me? Party gets slightest of bounce, fractionally outside of the margin of error on poll shortly after huge publicity boost? Single data point too? You are seriously spinning that as a big win? Chris, sure, it’s his horse, but you? The only reason you have it is for pushing your favoured narrative. Stop doing that and go back to fucking Maths class, Pete. I’m actually offended that is so bad.
Optimistically, ‘stagnating’ about sums it up.
No, stagnating sums it up perfectly. You could also use “plateau”. What did everyone think SF would keep going up until they got 100% seats? This was always happening at some point. Probably happened earlier than they would have liked, but it’s up to them to deal with it. These types of glass ceilings are tough for all parties. The Lib Dems suffer from it. It typically takes inspired leadership or great ideas to get out of. The SNP managed it, just about.
I reckon it’ll probably take a change of leadership in SF to have a hope of gett5ing to a new plateau. But the roof is unlikely to cave in. It could happen, but negative media coverage that doesn’t really shift polling numbers do not indicate that, to me.
But that permanent protest vote tends to go to parties of opposition. Not parties in [Northern] government.
That’s a circle yet to be squared by Sinn Féin.
You assume SF is a permanent protest vote in the South. That is overly simplistic. They have a reputation for hard working local reps that helps them, and when they ran against type with Mary Lou it bit them in the ass. They also have an attraction to a Nationalist vote. And bluntly, Southerners tend to ignore the North. It depends how badly others like Eirigi want to chase that vote.
Northern government also offers opportunities, of course.
Ken
“I reckon it’ll probably take a change of leadership in SF to have a hope of gett5ing [sic] to a new plateau.”
Indeed.
And that’s where you agree with Liam.
There was a time when I would have risen at 8.00 a.m. and raced down to vote for Sinn Fein. They were the voice of many disillusioned Nationalists but they are now the SDLP of the 70′s. They are presently a very integral part of the British political establishment and do their bidding like nodding dogs. I wasn’t surprised to hear that Downing Street ended up writing their speeches and now firmly believe that Sinn Fein has been controlled by Britain’s Security Services since the late 1980′s. The Nationalist/Republican community has no effective political representation at this time and it’s no wonder that the DUP swagger about with an air of arrogance. They have NO opposition whatsoever from Nationalism/Republicanism and they know it, as Ian Paisley jnr recently alluded to. It’s time for a total rethinking amongst the Nationalist electorate. We have been conned and our so called representatives bought off and turned by the sheckles of British ministerial power and money. Shocking, totally shocking. The last 40 years have been a big con and EVERY Republican AND ALL other victims died for a big lie.
Lurig
The past 40 years set back the cause of everyone in NI, there was a path to equality in NI and 3000 people did not need to die on that path, no industry needed to be destroyed, no families needed to be pulled asunder.
The wrong path was taken due to two men, one was Ian Paisley and the other John Hume both men fostered divison and allowed terrorism to flourish from the early seventies.
SF, the IRA and the loyalist groups could not have been sustained without them, they have a heavy burden to bear. However SF came to the only position it could have as the leadership grew older and wanted more of the trappings of real power that could be exercised on the world stage post 9/11 when populist terrorism died.
One commenter (24 2nd page) has indicated uncertainty about SF topping the poll. Assuming the Unionist vote is split, I think it is more likely than not that they will but he is absolutely right to be in doubt.
One thing we have never had before is a significant period when SF have been in government followed by an election. There seems to be an assumption that all SF voters who have previously voted for them will just follow like sheep being led into a pen.
Nobody knows if the eleven plus saga is going to do SF damage.
If SF top the poll but their vote share goes down, is that a victory for them?
All hope of topping the pole lies in the TU splitting off the Unionist nutter vote from the DUPs.
The SF acolytes might reflect that that is not a positive sign of health in SF or a strong SF position! FOr some, it’s even a sign of desperation – trying to salvage something from the situation.
The leadership now seems more like an old, favourite, green blanket draped over the party than a positive political force. Yes, its warm comfy and truly republican under there (the blood stains are still on the mattress) but one day you have to get up again and go to work or you don’t eat.
Pete
Indeed.
And that’s where you agree with Liam.
No. Both you and Liam definitely think it requires it. It’s likely, but I keep an open mind.
In my opinion, Sinn Fein should be judged after the local and EU elections, then we will see how the party has faired out, and if the people want real change. If Sinn Fein progress, it will completly kill, the dissident fantasist movement, who believe they will take on the DUP, by doing what exactly?? I don’t see very many Eirigi candidates in the EU elections, were as Sinn Fein have a candidate in evey constituency.
Isn’t it interesting that despite S.F’s strong atacks on Fianna Fail and Fine Gael they still refused to rule out coalition with either party post next election? Could they be more honest about their wish for government regardless of the consequences?
“Isn’t it interesting that despite S.F’s strong atacks on Fianna Fail and Fine Gael they still refused to rule out coalition with either party post next election? Could they be more honest about their wish for government regardless of the consequences?”
Posted by dunreavynomore on Feb 23, 2009 @ 07:48 PM
couldn’t be further from the truth. Check out this article.
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2009/0221/breaking33.htm
That call for an alliance leaves a lot of wriggle room post-the next election, as we might expect from a small party in the south.
Actually, Quagmire, despite the rhetoric noted in that report, when asked directly about potential coalitions Adams left all options open – including a Fianna Fáil coalition.
See the interview here.
Quagmire
Your point in 23 has been answered by Pete Baker in 25 but I want to add that during debate Caoimhin O Caolain, on behalf of the leadership, said it would be wrong to rule out coalition with any party pre election! (remember a few months when, ahem, revolutionary S.F backed up the despised government’s plan to bail, out the bankers? no real policies, just opportunism)
” a few months back…” mea culpa
Are you the same Chris Gaskin that wanted psychiatric help on David Vances blog? something to do with too much party pressure
Pete
Actually, Quagmire, despite the rhetoric noted in that report, when asked directly about potential coalitions Adams left all options open – including a Fianna Fáil coalition.
Which remains the right answer for a small party, of course. Though the circumstances where going in with FF is a good idea at the moment are minimal.