Conservatives seeking Catholics and women as candidates…
Yesterday I had an impromptu interview with Owen Paterson, the Tories’ current Shadow Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, and Marion Little, the Tories ‘Battleground Director’ for the UK. Little has been with the party for thirty five years, through the fat years and the lean. She also had her finger prints all over the last few big Tory victories; including Boris Johnson’s convincing victory in the London Mayoral election last May. It was a fascinating conversation; my thoughts below the fold…They are keen to push a key message the Tories have been pushing right from the point they unveiled this new force: ie that Cameron is both serious and in for the long term about this venture. That’s not the way it’s been viewed in the local press, where it has often been viewed as a ‘sinister’ by many nationalist commentators.
One of their first priorities will be to bring modern techniques to the way the new party chooses its candidates. In the UUP this has been a notoriously anarchic bottom up process. One of the new innovations is to bring in a Parliamentary Assessment Board for the Northern Irish Westminster seats to impose minimum standards on those chosen to stand for the Commons.
Their priorities? Women and Catholics. The former will come as no surprise. UUP party leader Reg Empey has previously acknowledged that his party must improve on its abysmal record of getting its women members into politics. But the latter will be met with some scepticism.
Yet they seem serious about their intent. They are even prepared for the likelihood that running a Catholic candidate will lose them votes in core Unionist constituencies, for the sake of establishing the principle.
Paterson rails against what he sees as the false polarisation of politics in Northern Ireland:
“What strikes you immediately is the sheer violence of the language that’s used by Sinn Fein and the DUP over what are essentially trivial differences. You have Sinn Fein members depicting the likes of Gregory Campbell in a Nazi uniform; whilst Gregory cannot even bring himself to congratulate an Irish football team. And at the same time Peter Robinson and Martin McGuinness are touring the world together extolling the virtues of a powersharing settlement”.
But he is also keen to emphasise that ‘this cannot be respray of the UUP project’. For him the key is building confidence amongst those groups who have been alienated from politics. Mostly obviously he picks up on the business community:
“These are often highly articulate, well read connected and active citizens. They’ve not got involved in politics because here in Northern Ireland it has been a dirty, grubby and violent business. But those days are over now.”
I asked Little, what makes her think that they can succeed in bringing such people back in play when most of the ‘indigenous’ parties have thus far failed?
“This is not about one election. We need candidates who will speak to all parts of society. We’ve seen success in England come over two election cycles from candidates who were prepared to get down and connect with people outside traditional Conservative voting communities”.
She notes that in the Conservative heyday of the 1980s they had become complacent in terms of putting in the work on the ground. New Labour similarly has moved away from on the ground campaigning with the result that in succeeding elections the turnout dropped.
The new – UK wide – Tory strategy is to identify battleground constituencies and then to fight strongly in every part of that constituency. Something similar to the technique employed by the Obama campaign that tipped traditionally Red states like Virginia and Indiana into their blue pot.
She flags two now prominent Tory MPs who ran a two election campaign: Grant Snapps, now a junior housing minister; and Stewart Jackson for Peterborough, both of whom ran a two election campaign to take their seats in 2005. In both cases they campaigned relentlessly on local issues from a pair defeats in 2001.
The emphasis on renewed GOTV techniques begins with European elections in June, in which they’ll be looking for Jim Nicholson to increase his share of the vote in order to flag up progress both internally and externally.
Given the very short list of constituencies that are likely to fall to the ‘new force’; they are asking a lot from prospective candidates. They’ll be asking people to invest in a tough path that could take them to seven years to win a Westminster seat.
The emphasis on getting high quality candidates has become the party’s favourite tactic to overcome its lack of capacity in the ground lost to them in the 80s. In pursuing that tactic their choice of Boris Johnson as mayoral candidate raised more than a few eyebrows inside the party as well as beyond.
When Slugger spoke to Ken Livingstone in the summer of 2007; he was dismissive of a man who seemed incapable of understanding policy and seemed to have missed several opportunities to attack him over the delays in the various works in upgrading the London Underground.
In the end the race was much tighter in those inner London boroughs which traditionally opted into London politics. Johnson’s success came from engaging precisely those outer borough’s who had always felt vaguely embarrassed about belonging to the British capital. Boris enthused them into turning out, often for the first time. He also drew young often vociferous support into his campaign.
It’s a game plan the party is expected to re-employ in Mayoral elections across those parts of England where the party has long since ceased to be a local force in the political machine. Yet high impact players like BoJo are easer to talk about than to materialise.
Nevertheless, don’t expect the new force to play to local expectations. A Catholic candidate in say South Antrim is as likely to turn traditional Unionists off as enthuse others. But then again, these guys don’t expect to disrupt the local political game without disrupting the expectations of the reactionary elements in their own base.
The first disruption has been to eschew electoral pacts with any other party. To bring in Catholic candidates is a bold plan; and possibly nothing more than a triumph of hope over expectation. But with the possibility that the DUP peaked in 2005, there are two and possibly three constituencies (South Antrim, Upper Bann with a very outside chance of South Belfast) looking vulnerable even to a first phase counter play.
Norn Iron, it goes without saying is neither as open or as pluralist as the London electorate. But then again, it doesn’t have to be for this ‘new force’ to begin to make an impact in these particular target seats. Their opponents might be advised not to make the same mistake that Ken made of Boris over the last couple of years.
What you are saying, Mick, is that the Conservatives are serious about Norniron.’Bout time, get us away from the garden centres…..(personally speaking of course, and a south Belfast voter).
If I may paraphrase from Mel Brooks’ Blazing Saddles : “We’ll take the Catholics and the women but we ain’t taking no Catholic women!”.
Au contraire M Carr…
Mick
‘Their opponents might be advised not to make the same mistake that Ken made of Boris over the last couple of years’.
Wise words indeed ………and the UUP did run a Catholic woman candidate in the past without the world falling apart.
Thanks for sharing that Mick. I think they have focused on the right thing. They need people of talent from all backgrounds. If the CUs were able to improve the ratio of females to males and attract a few (to begin with) catholics to elected positions, they could tap into broader changes that are going on in NI society.
Wise words indeed ………and the UUP did run a Catholic woman candidate in the past without the world falling apart.
Remind us all, how did she get on?
What’s clear is that these two (Patterson and Little) have no idea what they’re talking about.
Dec,
Consider that bookmarked.
All very well Mick but surely its a prerequisite for any unionist candidate – UUP or DUP – to be a member of the loyal orders. And they exclude? You’ve guessed it….Catholics and women. After all are there not at least 27 members of the Orange Order in the Assembly?
terrace toff-things are changing.
Slug
You’re right. I had forgotten that the DUP allow some women to stand e.g. Iris. After all someone has to make the tea.
Terrace,
That would be an absolutely glaring contradiction, if it were actually true. There’s enough real issues that lie between Tory plans and the local existential reality without having to resort just to making things up!
I think the UUP deserve some credit for the UKs only all-female parliamentary party.
Dec
If you knew your politics that would be at your finger tips – as a hint she ran in the most chauvinistic of all areas and got about 20% of the UUP vote between 3 candidates, as an unknown against 2 well known candidates.
So I wouldn’t worry about running a women Catholic in a prime seat if she was articulate and capable, in fact I would welcome it.
Terracetoff….Sir John Gorman is a Roman Catholic and there have been others….you make an ass of yourself with these comments:
All very well Mick but surely its a prerequisite for any unionist candidate – UUP or DUP – to be a member of the loyal orders. And they exclude? You’ve guessed it….Catholics and women. After all are there not at least 27 members of the Orange Order in the Assembly?
You state that ‘it is a prerequisite…that ‘unionist’ candidates’ have to be a member of the loyal orders’ then go on to say ‘at least 27′ are members. Did you count the Unionist members [both parties] in Stormont…many more than 27. Then you say that excludes ‘catholics and women’….well Sir John Gorman was a Roman Catholic and there are a number of women Unionist MLAs…Iris Robinson and Arlene Foster spring to mind. On another point, if your assertion about having to be in the Loyal Orders being a prerequisite, then it wouldn’t exclude women, as there is the Women’s Loyal Order Institution. So before you post garbage make sure there is some of it accurate. Understand ???
“I think the UUP deserve some credit for the UKs only all-female parliamentary party.”
That is very gracious of you Jimmy.
It was accomplished, as these things tend to be, with a lot of pain, and an electoral tsunami,
Yes indeed, they establish the state, and after bitter struggle, an all female female parliamentary party, it wasn’t easy, it took decades of careful planning.
Gregory
“And they exclude? You’ve guessed it….Catholics and women. After all are there not at least 27 members of the Orange Order in the Assembly?”
The OO use to be the govt. it was a one party state of politics.
The UUP ( these days) are pro-Catholic.
Gregory
If the Tories were strongly anti-abortion, they might attract the conservative Catholic vote in NI.
Kathleen for West Belfast. She would mop up the ‘dissident’ republican vote too.
Why are atheists/agnostics not included in the recruitment drive?
Or is NI oblivious to such people?
“Why are atheists/agnostics not included in the recruitment drive?
Or is NI oblivious to such people? ”
They are already represented: Jeff Peel the NI Conservative Chairperson and Alex Kane the UUP director of communications have been discussing their atheist views in the Newsletter recently.
“If the Tories were strongly anti-abortion, they might attract the conservative Catholic vote in NI.”
That would see a shift for sure and also, it is self-maintaining, it doesn’t need to be feed, watered, or encouraged.
However pro-Catholicism, doesn’t have to be overly stated. I think Sir Reg is making a reasonable fist of it.
Gregory
“Alex Kane the UUP director of communications have been discussing their atheist views in the Newsletter recently.”
I found that wild, I kind of giggle, I think it is real brave, I think it takes a significant amount of character, to have a personal system.
I can always whizz over to a Vatican web-site to find out what my views are etc.
Alex has to do his own thinking.
Gregory
“However pro-Catholicism, doesn’t have to be overly stated. I think Sir Reg is making a reasonable fist of it. ”
Compared to David Trimble, certainly. Most Catholics will never forget that infamous shot of him marching in the Orange Order (…as if that in itself wasn’t bad enough) with Ian Paisley down the Garvaghy Road.
I don’t suppose the DUP will be recruiting Catholics. Ian Paisley believed Harold Smith wasn’t fit to be elected because “as a Jew, he rejects our Lord Jesus Christ, the New Testament, Protestant principles, the Glorious Reformation and the sanctity of the Lord’s day. The Protestant throne and the Protestant constitution are nothing to him”.
“I don’t suppose the DUP will be recruiting Catholics.”
They recruited one who made a speech at their conference this year.
Sorry if you think my earlier comments are garbage but it is a fact – made much of by the Orange Order – that 27 MLAs signed a petition against Margaret Ritchie’s comments. What percentage is that of the total? And what other secretive organisation with less than 40,000 members has such influence in the local legislature? I accept that my initial assertion was a bit sweeping but I don’t think it is either made up or garbage.
Sorry folks go and trawl the personal profiles of the unionist elected representatives and see how many have it on their profile that they are a member of the loyal orders. This is a real issue, albeit local, that the tories probably don’t understand. Unless there is a significant change in the profile of UUP electoral candidates this won’t change. And Reg Empey isn’t the man to lead such change.
Apologies to Lady Hermon and Arlene Foster for leaving them out of my earlier list. They are more capable than most of their male colleagues.
Terracetoff
There are I believe about 400 paid up Conservative members in NI, so I am sure they understand all the nuances very well.
For the CU’s membership or not of the OO will, I suspect, be irrelevant in the selection of candidates and in the party’s policies and there may be a very broad slate covering most aspects of NI in terms of religion (or none), gender and age not seen before.
Sorry Mick don’t accept that I’ve made it up. Whilst it may not be a prerequisite (I accept some poetic licence used there) how do you explain the fact that a significant number of unionist elected representatives are members of the loyal orders – go and look at their personal websites or profiles. The First Minister and Sammy Wilson are significant absentees from that list. My point is that the Tories may think they can change this situation but how are they going achieve that?
William – one Catholic and two women (one of whom I had mentioned)? Is that the best you can muster? I had forgotten Arlene and indeed Sylvia Hermon, both of whom are outstanding elected reps and definitely not tea makers. 27 out of 108 is around a quarter so that’s quite a sizeable proportion by any stretch of the imagination. And from a grouping that numbers less than 40000 (thats the size of the loyal orders). And William I am broadly unionist and I would like to see the tories succeed in thier objectives. I just fear they cannot deliver their objectives with their chosen partners.
Fianna Fáil will mop up the conservative Catholic vote in NI not the Tories – its all a matter of time and timing really. The future axis of power in Ni is FF-UUP
There used to be something on Owen Patterson’s website about moving away from the politics of the Orange and the Green – somebody obviously told him that in the case of ‘green’ at least this had more to do with Nationality than religion.
The double-speak from the Tories is that they will represent both sides fairly – but they will do that by being on one side only. lol
Tribal politics in Norn Iron is primarliy about Nationality and not religion ( particlualrly on the Nationalist side) and for the Tories to step in one side and say they are not involved in tribal politics is totally disingenuous.
The nearest thing to a non-tribal party is the Alliance – who at least try to relegate the tribal issue to secondary importance. If Posh Boy David Cameron (PBDC) wanted someone to jump into bed with – it should have been Wee Davey(was it the beard that put him off?) rather than Wee Reggie.
They have not even the honsety to admit that their intravention in Norn Iron is likely to malke the political situation MORE difficult for Unionism by potentially* evening up the vote and giving advantage to SF.
If ever the caricature of the posh bumbling Englishman who does not understand Ireland was ever justified then no more so than at present with PBDC.
*unfortunately form the Nationalsit side of the fence they are unlikely to actually make any impact.
>>They are even prepared for the likelihood that running a Catholic candidate will lose them votes in core Unionist constituencies<<
Perhaps the budget could stretch to re-education/education classes instead of waiting 40 plus years for the present mob of bigots to die off.
finches: Most Catholics will never forget that infamous shot of him marching in the Orange Order (…as if that in itself wasn’t bad enough) with Ian Paisley down the Garvaghy Road.
That was just a figment of your imagination. Neither of them went down the Garvaghy Road.
Sammy
You just don’t listen do you?
The CU’s will NOT be neutral on nationality and WILL oppose nationalists’ views on the border. The CU’s (and Conservatives in GB) will be an organisation that 100% supoorts the union of Great Britain and Northern Ireland is that clear enough.
The CU’s will deal in politics and voters not ‘tribes’ or religions, you either agree with their position and vote for it or you don’t and vote for another party.
So you can oppose them on their policies but not their right to have them.
Prionsa Eoghan: Perhaps the budget could stretch to re-education/education classes instead of waiting 40 plus years for the present mob of bigots to die off.
So, how well did Billy Leonard do compared with his running mate? Or was that just very poor vote management by SF?
http://www.sinnfein.ie/elections/candidate/502
Whataboutery may sometimes work reader if there is a valid comparison.
The CU’s will NOT be neutral on nationality and WILL oppose nationalists’ views on the border. The CU’s (and Conservatives in GB) will be an organisation that 100% supoorts the union of Great Britain and Northern Ireland is that clear enough.
Thats not true, the conservative position is the same as it always has been. There can be no change to NI status until a majority wish it to change. The conservatives will not oppose a UI, this is the policy under thatcher, major, hague, duncan-smith, howard and now cameron
frustrated democrat
“The CU’s will deal in politics and voters not ‘tribes’ or religions, you either agree with their position and vote for it or you don’t and vote for another party. ”
1) The tories suggested Tribal politics in Norn Iron was tribal.
2) Tribal politics in Norn Iron is based on Nationality.
The only (mainly) non tribal party is the Alliance Party and the Tories are therefore entering into tribal politics in Norn Iron by supporting the Ulster Unionists. This is the fundamental contradiction/double speak/lie at the heart of their policy.
Prionsa Eoghan: Whataboutery may sometimes work reader if there is a valid comparison.
What is the problem? Did you not see his Assembly election results? Sinn Fein must have mentioned the results on another page, surely?
But, just in case they didn’t: http://tinyurl.com/9856mm
But, no doubt, it was just a failure of SF’s otherwise impeccable vote management – a mix-up with the leaflets at the printer’s, perhaps.
(tinyurl is used because slugger doesn’t like the work ti*s in the full URL)
IWSMNWDI: This is the fundamental contradiction/double speak/lie at the heart of their policy.
Only if “tribal” is a synonym for “national” and has no other connotations. But I’m sure it does have other connotations here!
Anyway, the door is open for any party that accepts the principle of consent to get on with social and economic matters instead.
Reader,
“Anyway, the door is open for any party that accepts the principle of consent to get on with social and economic matters instead. 2
The architecture of the GFA keeps the National ( tribal) issue in the forefront – not simply because of the designation issue but because it allows for greater North/South integration and because Nationalists can now battle legitimately to minimise the importance of the border.
It is not just a matter of social economic policy but whther these policies should be orange or green. Trying to pretend the National issue has been resolved is a complete nonsense especially as demogrpahics point towards equality in numbers of the 2 communities(tribes).
??
The Conservatives policy is that the union is best for all in NI and that is what they will attempt to persuade people to vote for in any referendum, they will NOT be neutral. However if a majority vote for a UI they will accept it as a democratic mandate.
That is the change.
The Conservatives policy is that the union is best for all in NI and that is what they will attempt to persuade people to vote for in any referendum,
……………
are you saying the Tory party, which has been here since the 1990s, would not have argued and advocated NI staying within the union in the past?
Reader
Spit it oot man. I have not got the foggiest how you can match up what you are trying to say with the wee tit bits you are providing. Clarity for the slow witted por favour?
?? – no but that was what you appeared to be saying of the Conservative party in the future.
Prionsa Eoghan: Clarity for the slow witted por favour?
High profile Prod SF candidate got only half of the vote of his Catholic running mate in spite of SF’s famous ability at vote management, and the fact that, with 1.4 quotas, and expecting more, the local party had everything to play for and nothing to lose.
Either vote management wasn’t attempted (why not?), or it failed (why?)
In contrast, with 1.53 quotas, and 3 candidates(!), the UUP got 2 MLAs in East Antrim.
Politics is ‘tribal’ in most places in one way or other. What is happening in NI is that the religious tribalism is not so important in itself, people are more religiously tolerant nowadays compared to the NI of the past. There is also a growing cultural and sporting tolerance – people interested in trying out sampling and generally enjoying the rich tapestry.
The CUs must surely want to be what is called “Civic Unionist”, inclusive towards people of all cultural and religious groups who happen to share the same political positions. That is something the UUP were moving towards and the CU link up makes sense to me when thought about in this context.
frustrated democrat,
… If you knew your politics that would be at your finger tips – as a hint she ran in the most chauvinistic of all areas and got about 20% of the UUP vote between 3 candidates, as an unknown against 2 well known candidates.
As far as I know she has not stood again, and the election you’re referring to was 10 years ago. It hardly speaks of large reserves of eligible Catholic women unonists, does it? Have they had any since 1998?
slug,
“I don’t suppose the DUP will be recruiting Catholics.”
They recruited one who made a speech at their conference this year.
Was that the Polish guy? lol – is he still in NI, or has he gone back home already?
horseman-no idea!
??
The previously acknowledged Conservative policy was one of support for the union but with ‘no selfish or strategic interest’, the new one is for all out support of the union with a ‘selfish interest’, a subtle change.
Horseman
That was for the UUP, the new CU’s have, I suspect, no shortage of suitable candidates from all backgrounds, genders and ages nor funding for that matter. Things really have changed in NI but some have yet to understand that and still see things as they used to be.
Something the CUs will benefit from is the money and expertise. The Conservative party have all the benefits of a major national party and that could well transform the local campaigning.