The Irish news are reporting that the DUP has again delayed selecting a candidate for the European election in June. I have heard that there has so far been only one nomination (Deirdre Nelson: a councillor in Ballymena, and slugger o’toole councillor of the year). The selection meeting was due to take place on 22nd January but the date for closure of applications has been moved to 23rd January.
World by Storm has a nice piece up on the IRA’s role in helping MK, the armed wing of the ANC, in the 1980s. In particular he sees a strange alchemy at work there: …if one can think of a clearly legitimate contemporary struggle it was that against apartheid and it is to the credit [...] read our review »
Which reminds me…. Platform for Change’s driving force Robin Wilson has produced a corrective to the notion that the lessons of the NI conflict are easily exportable. Like myself, Robin is associated with the Constitution Unit. He introduced his new book in a CU blog which I here reproduce. The water crisis in Northern Ireland [...] read our review »
Extract from Greg McLaughlin and Stephen Baker: The Propaganda of Peace: The Role of Media and Culture in the Northern Ireland Peace Process. Bristol: Intellect Books. 2010. Political opponents Ian Paisley and Martin McGuiness were confirmed as First Minister and Deputy First Minister of a new executive in May 2007, closing yet another chapter in [...] read our review »
well of course the last time Jim Allister was parachuted in it was to stop Willie McCrea- not in keeping with punt’s project for sober suited technocrats dontchaknow. I hear that the Rantin’ Rev is still interested – if not for himself( South Antrim would have to go) then for his wee lad from Mid Ulster.
But there is close scrutiny of the possibility of running a name, and then standing him down before he has to give up his Westminster seat, and then immediatley post-election nominating a sub from the assembly backbenches to go to Strasbourg.
I don’t actually think it can be done, but the idea of such a staggeringly cynical ploy shows the contempt with which some in the DUP are prepared to treat the Unionist electorate, now they’re top dog.
Also, it shows the bizarre focus on an irrelevant election for a discreditted institution. But then the DUP are addicted to winning elections. Why not pick a non-entity- who’s going to hear of them ever again ( Is Bairbre de Brun actually still alive, and how can they tell?)? Why worry about “stopping SF from topping the poll”in the grand scheme? The DUP are going to get a seat, even if they ran Edwin Poots in a frock. Euros are no longer needed to run Albertbridge Road
Ironically Jim Allister may well now be at his most influential- if only because the nervousness of any serious candidate to take him on shows only too clearly how the DUP know how much they betrayed their core voters, and how he will chew up and spit out any sacrificial sheep foolish enough to debate him. A party with guts would go toe to toe, and a politician with ambition would see the opportunity. Isn’t that right, Junior?
autocue
How do you know which is which in the posters?
‘How humuliating for the UUP -taken over by a bunch of nerds, cranks and supper club dwellers’
That is the probable next government of the UK. What would you call local parties then?
In any event it isn’t a takeover it is an election pact and most (though not all) on both sides are equally enthusiatic from what I have heard on the ground.
I am sure others will have noticed this but Alex Kane wrote a sober article – http://www.newsletter.co.uk/columnists/This-isn39t-a-triumph-of.4866159.jp
I agree with it but i am sure we can better the situation.
fd
“That is the probable next government of the UK.”
Sorry but what are the odds of the Jeffrey Peels of this world being within a sniff of government. Furthermore, you know exactly what and who I am referring to.
Autocue
There is only one Conservative party with one leader, you know the 2nd biggest party in the UK and the probable next Government in the UK. It is the one that will prepare the manifesto for the EU and the UK Elections.
The fact there are sub groupings in Scotland Wales and NI is not relevant to overall party direction and policy for the EU and Westminster elections, only for those regions’ elections.
There is no agreement with Conservatives and UUP for Stormont at this stage, although it might happen in the future if all goes well, so your comment is not relevant. Interestinly there are less nerds and cranks in the NI Conservatives than the other NI parties from my observations, you only have to look on to Slugger to confirm this, as for the Supper Club I have not been so can’t comment, have you?
fd
I should say fd that your comments are merely confirming my original assertion. The Tories who frequent this site are an awful lot quicker to spout forth about what has or has not been agreed and how this will/will not impact on politics here, going so far as re-naming the UUP the CUs in their posts.
I wonder why it is that Tories like yourself and others are keener to talk about this than life-long UUP folks?
Picture the scene: Michael McGimpsey having to sit how to parley about Westminster elections in SB with Roger (92 votes) Lomas. I repeat – how humiliating for the UUP.
Also fd, if you don’t think Cameron would drop Reg like a hot brick if it suited him you really are deluded.
Correction Roger Lomas polled a whopping 108 votes!
autocue
The UUP are the UUP and the Conservatives are the Conservatives, when they are in the EU/Westminister elections they will be the CU’s or something similar – what is your problem and how do you know exactly who supports which party if any? I have seen what I think are UUP people in full support maybe you missed them or thought they were Conservatives.
I suspect if you thought it was in the interests of the party you support, whichever one that is, you would keep very quiet and hope it is the failure you want it to be. Incidentally http://threethousandversts.blogspot.com has a piece on what he expects the DUP to do – I think Chekov is from the UUP side.
fd
I have read the piece and whilst I have no doubt it will appeal to the sense of smugness which the UUP/Tories have concerning, well how should I say this “those backward facing, history obsessed, parish pump” proles who take part in the Orange Order and who have gormed the backbone of the Unionist community for the best part of a century, it conventiently ignores the fact that these people have votes too and will exercise them more readily and quickly than those damned elusive GCP’s!
It is also false to assert that Dodds said delivery for the loyal orders was the only priority for the DUP. Still with all, I’m sure Doddsy is delighted to be attacked by the UUP for standing up for the interests of a block of people that up until relatively recently where actually represented in the ruling structure of the party you now aspire merger with!!!
formed, not gormed. D’oh!
autocue
I can now safely assume you are from or at least support the DUP, just remember things change, you used to be a minor party and could be again if you are not very careful in your condecension.
fd
My condecension? Sorry but I’m not the one going around calling people names like your area Vice Chairman! Seemingly, anyone who expresses Protestant religous belief or who has anything to do with the Loyal Orders has no place in the “CUs” – in fact I recall reading on the NI Tory blog a certain poster advocated a ban on members of the OO from joining.
Just think of the response from all these smug “new Unionists” if someone from the DUP openly advocated a ban on members of the Roman Catholic Church.
I am reminded of a quote from the scriptures (shock, horror!) the next time the NI Tories accuse the DUP or indeed anyone else of being exclusionist or bigoted the should “cast the beam out of your own eye” first.
D Cather
The 3rd count included 7221 votes of Bairbre De Brun’s surplus.i>
No, the De Brun surplus was never redistributed. See:-
http://www.ark.ac.uk/elections/fe04.htm
But as the third count included Éamonn McCann’s vote, it probably is the case that the SDLP are not getting anywhere near 48% of other centrist transfers.
autocue
the UUP is a schizophrenic body at best. In the greater Belfast area it will happily abandon any historic link with Orangemen and such, but the resistance ion the merger will come from those with fiefdoms to protect. We all remember the chipping away at Martin Smyth’s base by the Gimp over years as a precursor to his..er… inexorable rise to Westminster (oops). Can you really see him- or any of the other Westminster wannabes for that matter- stepping aide, or loosening their grip on constituency associations?
By contrast in the rural areas all your average delegate wants is a local man-not too old, say noone over 80- and certainly it’ll help if he’s an Orangeman. The type of ulster Tory who might stumble in to a selection meeting in the Orange Hall (natch) will be a strange and exotic butterfly to the locals. Why he probably won’t even be a farmer!
The UUP has form of course. When the last batch of Tories crashed and burned a few of them drifted into the UUP. None- excepting Alex Kane of this parish-has flourished in the party. I think Bazza Mccrea my have been a Tory in England but I stand to be corrected. Trimble and Hermon attracted a few professional chums at one time post referendum, but few remain. And it will be interesting to see how the UUP welcome returning sons like James Leslie and Peter Bowles. Officially joy will abound of course.
My predictions on the outcome. I would expect the total Unionist First Preference vote to fall to 46.1% of the total, but they would stand to pick up 3.9% of transfers.
However, as John Gillisland last time allegedly attracted some Conservative voters, this time these votes will go straight to the Tory candidate. This would only mean that the Unionist First Preferences would be slightly higher, and the Centrist transfers they attract slightly lower.
Jim Allister will probably be able to hang onto 30,000 plus votes, and there will be less Unionist votes around due to the death rate, so the DUP may well be deprived of a quota in the first count, and SF will top the poll. There will thus be no Unionist surpluses to distribute.
Jim Allister will be eliminated and a lot of his votes will go the Tory candidate, so the DUP candidate may need several counts to achieve a quota.
Then for the final seat, it’s down to Tory and SDLP. I wouldn’t expect either of these to be able to achieve a quota, so absolutely all the votes will have to be redistributed. Demographically speaking, the Tory candidate should win by a nose, which I calculate to be about 4,500 votes (+ or – 10,000 votes). However, anything less than perfect transferring on the part of Unionists would frustrate this.
Paddy
Your assumptions overestimate the strength of the SDLP. Leaving aside the fact that they have a dud candidate, SF won’t have anywhere near enough transfers to bring them over the line. After that where are the votes coming from?
After that where are the votes coming from?
The SDLP will garner the SF surplus, then transfers from whoever else is standing: Green, Alliance, Rainbow George etc. As they did last time.
This will not be sufficient to bring them over the line, but as I pointed out, there probably will not be enough votes around for either candidate to achieve a quota. So the final candidate will be elected without achieving a quota.
The dudness or otherwise (a purely partisan opinion, I fear) of the candidate will have nothing to do with the outcome. It is after all a dud job.
autocue
As you well know he was expressing his personal opinion based on his religious viewpoint or to be exact lack of it. He is quite entitled to do this and to hold whatever opinion he wants to and you are entitled to disagree with him.
However those views do not represent Conservative policies where all are welcome within the party, that is quite clearly stated on their website if you choose to read it.
Those who support the new pact will be quite happy for you to declare it irrelevant and to concentrate you efforts in other areas.
Could any of you tell me next week’s lotto numbers? Events will dictate where the votes will go.
This is from the second committee on the Draft European Communities (Definition of Treaties)(Common Electoral Principles) Order 2004 that I found most interesting, especially on what it implied by inference.
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200304/cmstand/deleg2/st040113/40113s01.htm
Column Number: 005
‘…With regard to the dual mandate, the decision deals with persons who hold office as an MEP and as a member of a national Parliament, commonly referred to as ”dual mandates”. For hon. Members who want to follow the detail, let me say that that is covered in article 6 of the 1976 Act and is dealt with in article 1, paragraph 7 of the decision, which states that
”from the European Parliament elections in 2004, the office of a member of the European Parliament shall be incompatible with that of member of a national parliament.”
”National parliament” refers to the Westminster Parliament, so the provision does not apply to the devolved legislatures in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
The measure is worth while and I commend it to the Committee. The majority of our European colleagues regard the job of MEP as a full-time post and the Government are inclined to agree. Members of the Westminster Parliament and Members of the European Parliament should have clear mandates and should be able to concentrate on doing their jobs without dividing themselves between the two bodies. It is difficult for a person to be an effective representative in both those bodies; only an exceptional individual could do it. The provision preventing dual mandates is therefore a welcome and positive step. ‘
Is being Stormont MLA a full-time job? If false are they entitled to their high salary: If true should they not accept the wording as including the Assembly members?
“Those who support the new pact will be quite happy for you to declare it irrelevant and to concentrate you efforts in other areas.”
Why would I do that when I can have so much fun picking it apart and pointing up the glaring inconsistencies and damage that it will do to Unionism?
Interesting to note that no UUP, oops, I mean CU person has come on here to back you up?
PaddyReilly,
if E. McCann is excluded totally from the calculation the SDLP % is circa 30.
if E. McCann is excluded totally from the calculation the SDLP % is circa 30.
That strikes me as a little low. I wish they’d held the counts separately, instead of keeping them as a state secret. Then we would know where we are.
I imagine a lot of McCann voters transferred to SF and no further, and consequently wasted their vote.
The Gilliland voters would have gone slightly less than 50% to the SDLP and the Green votes somewhat more.
Hopefully they will do a better tally this time.
For Unionism this is not night, not quite sundown, but definitely the beginning of sunset.
autocue
I don’t think I need any back up, maybe you do.
PaddyReilly,
re. “For Unionism this is not night, not quite sundown, but definitely the beginning of sunset”
As you are a great man for statistics – on a related matter – the figures released showing the number of newly registered voters by constituency were extermely low for West Belfast (half that of East Belfast) even if you didnt take into account the low age profile which would make them worse. I have seen no explanation of what was going on – SF would presumably have been crawling all over these figures if there was a hint of misrepresnetation.
http://www.eoni.org.uk/press_release_01-12-9.pdf
fd
Again you make my pint for me. No UUP supporters on here only Tories. I wonder why?
Awkfor goodness sake of course the DUP won’t stand aside and leave Allister with a platform. Get Allister out of Europe and there is no European money to fund the running of the party, the wages of Sammy Morrison or Ivor McConnell or Jim and his family. Hence it ends, hence the DUP will stand, end of.
the number of newly registered voters by constituency were extermely low for West Belfast
Weird. Perhaps it is because W Belfast is so certainly unwinnable by anyone other than SF that people are not registering.
But what the stats do show proves a point that I frequently make that the Euro Election returns are the only really accurate ones. The variation in size between the constituencies is so large that the result of Assembly and Westminster elections will only vaguely resemble the %age of voters on the ground.
There is also the “garden centre prod” argument, which holds that as the three constituencies of E Antrim, North Down and Strangford have a relatively low turn out in ordinary elections, the increased number of their GCPs voting in a referendum will frustrate the Nationalist hopes. But these constituencies have a relatively small population, and so are unlikely to make that much of a difference.
PR
“Weird. Perhaps it is because W Belfast is so certainly unwinnable by anyone other than SF that people are not registering. ”
I think I will email the electoral office and ask them – the figures are so out of step they may have just mixed up their columns.
Sammy the reason is clear. West Belfast has one of the highest ‘out-migration’ rates of any NI constituency, including internal inter constituency migration (to other parts of NI). Its population tends not to rise because so many people leave West Belfast often at a young age.
Sammy: The other obvious reason – in addition to the known high level of out-migraiton from West Belfast – could be that West Belfast was already well-registered (perhaps because of Sinn Féin’s assiduous efforts in that direction), so the official registering campaign had bigger effects in other constituencies.
slug,
ta.
re. the last explanation – I think it counts all newly registered irrespective of whether part of the electoral office scheme/efforts or not – but if not you could be on the money.
re. your earlier explanation the numbers just look too out of step to be explained by migration – but clearly it could be a contributory factor.
Sammy – it counts ALL registered. Not all newly registered. The change is the change in all registered. Therefore both of my explanations apply.
slug,
that does not stack up – West Belfast with a far lower age profile and therfore less deaths than East Belfast has less than half the number of registered increases (and a fifth of North Belfasts) – that would take a very large migration. If I am understanding you correctly – then the fact that SF had organised the registering would be irrelevant if all registrations are inlcuded – and even SF could not register people who were below the voting age before the electoral office came on the scene at the schools.
But just had a look at their website and my confusion is on the increase.
Also in terms of “out of step” I also disagree. West Belfast is only 200 less than the next lowest. The highest is 200 more than the next highest. So at each end of the distribution the outliers deviate from the next by about the same amount.
Deaths are actually smaller compared to out migration at NI level. (There are about 10,000 deaths per year in NI whereas far more than this migrate out. 10,000 migrate out from NI to GB each year and a similar number to places outwith UK). At individual constituency level in a place like West Belfast there is even larger imbalances between death and outmigration. Outmigration in a place like West Belfast can easily swamp the difference between births minus deaths.
Sammy:
NISRA data on internal migration shows the following
Pop Change through Inward Migration 2006-2007:
East Belast +500
West Belfast -700 (highest NI outmigration figure)
Pop Change through births minus deaths 2006-2007:
East Belfast +0
West Belfast +500
Population Change 2006-2007:
East Belfast +500
West Belfast -200
The electoral figures should show a bigger increase in East than West – and the electoral figures you query show just that!
slug,
ok – that looks pretty convincing – have you s link to the migration figures?
What is the reason for the migration to East Belfast – is it a jobs thing do you think – or boundary change?
Sammy
Its not a boundary change-the figures are I believe the current constituency not the proposed new one.
Generally NI has experienced a lot of into-NI migration from GB and from other countries in recent years and the figure for East Belfast is not all that high compared to other constituencies.
The overall pattern for within-NI migration is that people are moving out of Belfast (especially from North and West which is hardly surprising when you think of the quality of housing) and towards places like Lagan Valley, North Down etc, in the commuting zone, where lots of new houses are being built.
In many ways the depopulation of Belfast is sad but this has been a UK-wide phenomenon, as people move out of cities.
Though there are some signe of inner city regeneration in places like Manchester and Leeds –and the new flats such as OBEL in Belfast are the same phenomenon. We might then see central Belfast repopulate with a professional 18-45 age group, if this development phase is successful.
I hope very much that it will be.
slug,
ta for that.
slug,
ta for that.