The Irish news are reporting that the DUP has again delayed selecting a candidate for the European election in June. I have heard that there has so far been only one nomination (Deirdre Nelson: a councillor in Ballymena, and slugger o’toole councillor of the year). The selection meeting was due to take place on 22nd January but the date for closure of applications has been moved to 23rd January.
World by Storm has a nice piece up on the IRA’s role in helping MK, the armed wing of the ANC, in the 1980s. In particular he sees a strange alchemy at work there: …if one can think of a clearly legitimate contemporary struggle it was that against apartheid and it is to the credit [...] read our review »
Which reminds me…. Platform for Change’s driving force Robin Wilson has produced a corrective to the notion that the lessons of the NI conflict are easily exportable. Like myself, Robin is associated with the Constitution Unit. He introduced his new book in a CU blog which I here reproduce. The water crisis in Northern Ireland [...] read our review »
Extract from Greg McLaughlin and Stephen Baker: The Propaganda of Peace: The Role of Media and Culture in the Northern Ireland Peace Process. Bristol: Intellect Books. 2010. Political opponents Ian Paisley and Martin McGuiness were confirmed as First Minister and Deputy First Minister of a new executive in May 2007, closing yet another chapter in [...] read our review »
Nigel must volunteer his services for the good of the country.
Given that Jim Allister wasn’t selected by the DUP until February 2004 they are actually ahead of schedule from last time around. Really Turgon if this is the best you can do you need to think about a new outlet for your energies.
Blackberry,
Do not worry I have several outlets for my energies. Actually I confess to having done far too little blogging of late. I am very busy at work; I am sure that will greatly sadden you.
It has been suggested (by Horseman) that Deputy Dodsy seat in North Belfast will only be secure for 1 more Westminster election and even that is not guaranteed – that may tempt him into Europe.
The DUP should top the poll in Europe but the battle between the TUV and Tories will be interesting – anybody seen any poll forecasts – 2 Nationalist seats must be a possibility if the Unionists kick electoral shit out of each other.
I can’t really see 2 nationalist seats being a possibility. The numbers don’t add up! Unless unionist voters suddenly decide to not transfer their votes to other unionist parties, but there is no evidence at all that this will happen.
SF should go close to topping the poll, but I can’t see TUV getting more than 30,000 votes, meaning Nicholson should be returned as the third candidate.
My predictions for what it’s worth!
DUP Candidate 160,000
DbeB (SF) 155,000
JNic (UUP) 94,000
AMag (SDLP) 85,000
JimA (TUV) 30,000
Alliance / Joint candidate 30,000
Others 12,000
Where do the transfers to bring Alban above Jim come from?
UUP will benefit from DUP surplus.
The others and Alliance / joint candidate last time split evenly between UUP and SDLP.
And if Nicholson still isn’t over the quota by this tage then Allister’s transfers will go to him over the SDLP.
In my mind Alban will have to poll at least 30,000 first preference votes more than Nicholson to get in. Not very likely IMO
Esoterica NI
Will we witness the most suprising comeback and early retirement in NI politics?
… (Dedrie Nelson: a councillor in Ballymena, and slugger o’toole councillor of the year)
She obviously didn’t make much of an impression on you, though, Turgon, since you can’t even get her name right!
It’s Deirdre Nelson>
Esoterica NI
2 Seats or not 2 Seats
Last time out (2004) there was about 5% difference in favour of Unionism – if that drops by another couple off points (which happened between 1999 and 1994)then it starts to look quite close even leaving out impact of 3rd Unionist candidate.
Has anybody picked up any serious rumours about whether/who the Alliance/independent candidate will be this time?
No names have so far pushed themselves forward, and lets face it, June in not far away in electoral terms, so if an organisation is to be built they need to start now.
If there is no ‘other’ candidate, then this will have an impact on the outcome, I think.
Why would a British party like the DUP want a European candidate?
About the others.
1. The Conservatives no longer support the “other” candidate as they did last time and are joining forces with the UUP.
2. There is talk of a high profile candidate supported by the remaining others, however I cannot at this point divulge who s/he is.
slug,
… a high profile candidate supported by the remaining others …
Outside of the DUP, UUP/Tories, SDLP, SF, and APNI, who is really left? Who are these ‘remaining others’? Eamon McCann’s perennial losers? Some assorted dissident republicans? The UPRG? Who outside of the ‘big five’ could ever be called a ‘high profile candidate’?
The premise of your post is a misinterpretation of mine.
I think Horseman that slug is talking about the perennial losers coming together to find a joint candidate to come nowhere near getting a seat together, like last time.
I think that due to the intervention of the TUV SF will top the poll and the DUP will lose out. The overall number of votes will rise by 2-3% as the Conservative Unionist deal brings out stay at home voters and they will also draw from DUP and Alliance to show a 20% increase back towards 1999 levels. The SDLP will continue their slow decline and Alliance will lose out to the CU’s.
Until we know the balance of the runners the others is of course speculative.
SF 160
DUP 150
C/U 110
SDLP 80
TUV 35
OTH 30
Total 565
slug,
The premise of your post is a misinterpretation of mine
Why don’t you explain what you meant, then? I have reread your post and I’m no wiser.
frustrated democrat
That would give Unionism about 52% – a very good result – it can only be justified by the ‘stay at home voters’ – who may on the day turn out to be as elusive as ever.
Have your predictions taken into account the increasing size of the Nationalist electorate? If you include Eamonn McCann (is he standing?) the Nat. numbers would have actually gone down on your figures.
Horseman,
Sorry, I have fixed her name.
From June an MP cannot be an MEP – dual mandate. So sayeth the law so the era of the DUP triple mandates are over.
If Nigel goes to Europe not only will he have to forego his Westminister seat but he is morally bound to give up his Northern Ireland ministry etc. Further there are many members of the DUP after the 2nd O/C post so sending him to coventry, sorry Europe, will be seen as an open door by others.
It’s a more interesting EU election on the unionist side than normal with the CUs fishing for new and centrist voters and the TUVs picking up the hard unionists.
A block of unionist voters have shown a capacity to move around: early 1990s the Conservatives, mid 1990s back to the UUP, late 1990s to the UKUP, early 2000s to the DUP, etc.
So this promises to be interesting.
It would be daft for Nigel to move from the power of Westminster to the irrelevance of the EU Parliament. Westminster arithmetic looks tight for the next election. The DUP have plenty of other candidates among their non-MP MLAs. Simon Hamilton would be a good choice.
Sammy
I was working on the principle that Gilliland who took a lot of Unionist votes or someone similar will not stand, so it is not a great increase in their vote. Also that another E McC or similar will be in the picture in others alongside the Alliance who took 14,000 last time out in 1999 the majority of which probably went to Unionists.
In addition although the total nationalist vote is forecast to be higher in actual numbers it increases by less than the unionist side as if there are return voters they would be more inclined to be unionist.
It is a prediction and will depend on who is in the others and also if the return and rapid resignation for the DUP takes place which might increase their vote.
I will revise when the full list is known.
I think there is a strong possibility that the Ulster Unionist / Conservative joint candidate will poll around 185,000 votes and replace the DUPes as the leading party. Nicholson is by far the most efficient candidate, well-respected and holding senior posts within the Parliament, so one would hope voters will choose a candidate who if good in the job rather than some idiot from the DUPes who will fight the election on local political issues, not European ones.
William
I think you are being just a trifle optimistic for the Conservative and Unionist candidate but I hope you are correct as it would signal an end to the current tribal politics and for the first time in NI real politics where a carve up on sectarian division is a thing of the past.
I think 110,000 would be very acceptable for a first outing!
Slug
Suprised at your choice of Simon Hamilton does not seem like a character that has the it factor that a candidate needs? My suprise choice would be Nelson McCausland took Allaister on in Hearts and Minds and beat him also his high antics at being thrown out of the Assembly for attacking Adams was well receved and made him a house hold name for himself.
No matter who the DUP candidate may be, I reckon we’ll hear the battle cry: ‘Don’t allow Allister help SF top the poll. Vote DUP, Number 1′
” frustrated democrat”
“Alliance who took 14,000 last time out in 1999 the majority of which probably went to Unionists”
The distribution of the 3 last candidates votes Alliance, Greesn and SEA was 22,412 to UU and 20,522 to the SDLP – a fairly even split – 52% to 48%.
It will undoubtedly be a bitter campaign with accusations between the DUP and TUV of vote-splitting.
It is hypocritical nonsense for the Tories to refer to Norn Irish politics as tribal when they have entered on one side against the interests of the other – the indigenous people of the island. They can take their ‘superior’ attitude and shove it up their posh, public school jackies.
I cannot see the DUP supporters trusting the Tories as they have been told for decades that the Englezes have done the dirty on them – it will be a complete political turnaround for the Tories to top the poll- I would suggest their odds would be about 6/1 with the DUP 1/2 and SF 2/1.
“I think there is a strong possibility that the Ulster Unionist / Conservative joint candidate will poll around 185,000 votes
- William”
That’s very good William, I mean all he has to do is more than double his vote. Any idea where the 93,836 voters he needs are going to come from? I mean if you think that many people have been hiding out in Garden Centres since 1969, I suggest to you that some of them have probably died in the crush.
I support free speech and everything, but perhaps next time you consider opening your mouth you’ll remember that people died winning free speech and maybe you’ll use your privelege with a bit more respect.
D Cather
” I mean if you think that many people have been hiding out in Garden Centres since 1969, I suggest to you that some of them have probably died in the crush”
lol. I did notice some furtive movements in the area of the compost bins last Sunday.
It was Sammy Mc Nally what done it,
From practically the opposite of the fence I concur almost completely. To nationalists the UUP / Tories are in danger of looking unionist and one sided.
The Conservatives problem here can be demonstrated by two comments from Cameron himself on their web site:
“I am a unionist because the Union is good for all the different peoples in the United Kingdom.”
and
“The Conservative Party in government will never side with one part of the community over another.”
They may lose some UUP votes with comments like that. if I were a DUP apparatchik I would be recording all those little sound bites for future reference.
There is a way by which they can manage this but it is extremely nuanced and I do not think it is in reality tenable. I suspect the CUs will gain some garden centre votes but as D Cather suggests are there that many? Also why does everyone assume that garden centre voters are
1). unionists
2). middle class and right wing
3). politically moderate.
I hope I am wrong and their project works but I think it is much, much less certain than some on here and indeed assorted Conservatives think.
Sammy re the split of middle party votes:
“The distribution of the 3 last candidates votes Alliance, Greesn and SEA was 22,412 to UU and 20,522 to the SDLP – a fairly even split – 52% to 48%”
The 3rd count included 7221 votes of Bairbre De Brun’s surplus. The smaller parties were redistributed together because De Brun’s surplus was too small to carry any of them past Nicholson or Morgan
Turgon
“I am a unionist because the Union is good for all the different peoples in the United Kingdom.”
and
“The Conservative Party in government will never side with one part of the community over another.”
What is the problem with these two statements?
One says he believes the union is good for everyone of whatever religion and the second says that the party will not have any religious preference.
He was not referring to political outlooks in the second part as he is a unionist politician and not a nationalist.
frustrated democrat,
Nothing wrong with it at all. It is just a very fine line and a very nuanced argument. One which I think plays very well with a certain group of highly interested political types.
It will, however, be more difficult to sell on the doorsteps and will be extremely easy to distort by political opponents.
As I have repeatedly said I hope to be wrong. However, I doubt many people will be knocking on my door in Erne West asking me to vote CU telling me about this shiny new position. If they do I will simply ask if they are going to stand in the Westminster election and hence, ensure that for at least another parliament I have no representation in the nation’s parliament. Further I will ask if they think that to preserve some form of “neutrality” they will ensure I continue to be “represented” (in the vaguest possible usage of that term) by someone who believes that people should not go to the police about certain sorts of criminal activity and that a future generation of republicans may “have to” go back to “the armed struggle.”
““The Conservative Party in government will never side with one part of the community over another.”
“He was not referring to political outlooks in the second part as he is a unionist politician and not a nationalist. ”
Therefore you are saying that the Tories WILL take sides on the issue of politics – ie the Union – so do tell how they are not part of tribal politics when they are politcally siding against the Irish tribe and in favour of the Britsh tribe? This is complete and utter nonsense, and double speak and muddled thinking and they have not even got the balls/honesty to admit that they will damage Unionism position by splitting the vote more evenly.
As a Nationalist, I think it is spiffing as Posh Boy Dave Cameron might well remark – it will damage both Unionism and Toryism. The only alliance that makes sense is the one between the UU and the DUP – which probably wont happen until they are behind the Nationalist block in the assembly in terms of seats – which is probably the assembly elections after next.
Turgon
I can’t see the CU’s doing any deals with the DUP it would send out completely the wrong message about their non sectarian credentials to do such a deal. In addition the CU’s will be full time attenders at Westminister with a single job, not parochial, part time, multi jobbers.
If the DUP are so concerned they should withdraw from the seat as they can’t win it now, as the CU’s will stand, we will therefore see if they are more interested in the voters or themselves.
frustrated democrat,
I await with amusement how that line will play on the doorsteps out here.
Sammy
You always insist on mixing politics and religion and talking about tribes, some people have moved on.
Politically the CU’s will be overtly unionists and not nationalists, that is the way it is. The CU’s (and Conservatives in GB) will not be trying to be neutral on the union any longer and will oppose a United Ireland on principle, but will still support the objectives of the GFA including the outcome of a referendum result.
However they will not be interesting in getting involved in religious arguments, they do not see politics in religious terms. As it mentions on another thread, by Mick, they are actively looking for Catholic candidates.
Do you think those candidates would be from a Tribe or will they be from a particular unionist political outlook that has nothing to do with religion?
frustrated democrat
“You always insist on mixing politics and religion and talking about tribes, some people have moved on.”
I have no interest in religion – it is all hocus-pocus to me. Tribal politics may be mainly badged by religion but is about Nationality and the Tories are taking sides against the indigenous tribe. They have the fecking cheek to talk down to us about tribalism as the Tory party has engineeered many tribal conflicts around the world even basing their foreign policy on the idea of divide and conquer.
They are a Unionist party – and to try and pretend they are not actively invlolved in tribal politics is fecking double-speak nonsense that nonbody save the rump of the UU which has been decimated at the polls actually believes.
You are right about one thing – this debate has feck all to do with religion.
Sammy
Then you are correct, the CU’s will not side with the nationalists (tribe, in your words) in any debate regarding the union they will oppose them as part of the unionists (tribe, in your words), personally I would prefer the use of electorate to tribe.
The political situation has changed, is there a problem with that?
Frustrated Democrat:
It will be for the Electorate to decide if the ‘political situation has changed’ – I’m not as optimistic as you and ‘William’ are re. the CU’s prospects!
ZoonPol:
You’re quite correct about the dual mandate requirements, and the fact that if Nigel Dodds ran for Europe, and won, he immediately has to vacate his Westminster seat, thus causing a by-election in N. Belfast. However, he’s also legally bound to resign his Ministry (NB not morally bound as you say) – However he could stay as a back-bencher MLA, as well as being an MEP.
The DUP need a high profile candidate, that is why Dodds has been leant on by so many senior figures. I doubt that they would go for a councillor so Dierdre Nelson has no chance. If you were to look at the Assembly team there are few who stand out as potential candidates. In terms of profile (which is important) names such as Poots, McCausland or Storey would spring to mind, but given the requirement for profile I’d say that first timers, who may have the intellectual capacity, such as Hamilton, McIlveen or Ross must be discounted.
Thanks for that The New Insider. Well any NI career Politico would be nuts then to go for MEP – that counts Nigel out, unless of course if he is forced.
Maybe they will go for dark horse: strategically speaking what harm is there if the DUP does not win a seat in Europe?
ZoonPol,
An interesting point which initially seems correct but think about what would happen if Allister held his seat and the DUP lost. It would create a significant momentum for the TUV: that would be extremely dangerous for the DUP.
I agree that per se not having a Euro MP would not do the DUP any major harm: it is who else would then have the seat which would be the problem.
On the other side of the coin if Alister loses it frees him from legal constraints to run for Westminster etc. 6 of one ….
Being a QC I can see the benefit of letting the proverbial dog be. A win-win situation is if the DUP simply suggested that as he was Paisley’s heir to the seat he was seen then as the best candidate and in the best interests of all of Northern Ireland he is still seen as the best choice for the European Parliament. After all he, like Paisley before his remains non-attached political party members of it.
ZoonPol,
Fair point. However, if the DUP leave him they leave someone on their “right wing” and if they make any further concessions (and who seriously believes P and J are not coming) they will suffer for it.
Getting rid of Allister, they hope will reduce TUV momentum and I suspect they hope that if the Westminster elections are not for another year the TUV may have faded away by then.
Finally not going for maximum attack is just not like the DUP; I doubt they could just stand aside.
I agree with your last point. The raison d’être of the DUP seems to destroy all Orange (sic) rivals and I have noted that there is an increasing degree of extreme republican violence that the media has had to spin in such a way as not to rock the Stormont gravy train. My pathway of letting sleeping dogs lie would indeed be a chess strategy to far for those most used to playing checkers and I fear 2009 will be an interesting year as even the Security Service has stated that there are webs of connexions increasing between extreme and not so extreme elements. Thus giving Allistor a gift and as you said, if he stays, then the odds are in his favour.
As we are all aware, the Free Presbyterian was once called the DUP a pray so maybe the TUV are the rightful successors to that motif.
‘at’ not ‘a’
I have examined Decision 76/787/ECSC The New Insider Jan 11, 2009 @ 02:25 PM and it states that:
From the European Parliament elections in 2004, the office of member of the European Parliament shall be incompatible with that of member of a national parliament.
By way of derogation from that rule and without prejudice to paragraph 3:
…
- members of the United Kingdom Parliament who are also members of the European Parliament during the five-year term preceding election to the European Parliament in 2004 may have a dual mandate until the 2009 European Parliament elections, when the first subparagraph of this paragraph shall apply.
Stormont is not a Parliament but an Assembly and the European Communities (Definition of Treaties) (Common Electoral Principles) Order 2004 says nothing extra about it which enacts the above into domestic law.
I detect a legal loophole that the DUP can, and probally will exploit in the European Communities Act 1972. Unless there are amendments i do not know about a Stormont Minister can legally still be an MEP.
Over to you The New Insider to prove me wrong.
Am I the only one to notice that the Tory bloggers on this site seem a great deal more enthusiatic about the project (note how the UUP has suddenly become the CUs) than our UUP regulars?
How humuliating for the UUP -taken over by a bunch of nerds, cranks and supper club dwellers.
Whoever is selected, the question of who tops the poll will be a damn close run thing.
Thank you Jim Allister!