Unionism’s glass house and the throwing of stones
The DUP has been looking like something of caged tiger over the Tory UUP link up. This morning they released a press release in David Simpson’s name that took aim and fired at the party’s director of Communications Alex Kane, using his work as a columnist to list past criticisms of the current Tory party leader. The staff at Bob Balls wonders if such attacks are wise on the part of the DUP… They go on to remind the DUP of the time they ran a sitting Tory MP against Jeffrey Donaldson…
We can’t find any links on Paisley Junior’s view on the Tory/UUP link, but we’d be very keen to hear his views! Junior was ecstatic to gain delivery of one (independent) ex-MP. Fair enough. The Unionist family gained admission into the next Tory government. He must be beside himself with glee, right?
The DUP Press Release is not publicly available, but here’s a copy of the links to the various of Alex’s past columns:
http://www.newsletter.co.uk/opinion?articleid=3048007
http://www.newsletter.co.uk/opinion/Cameron39s-Conservatism-hasn39t-got-any.3319524.jp
http://www.newsletter.co.uk/alex-kane/Where-has-the-passion-for.4050291.jp
http://sluggerotoole.com/index.php/weblog/comments/no_difference_between_new_labour_and_new_conservatives/
http://atangledweb.typepad.com/weblog/2006/06/tories_desert_c.html
There is a scenario where 2 good guys (Nationlaists) could get elected
Yes, the possibility is discussed by Horseman’s website:-
http://ulstersdoomed.blogspot.com/search/label/Demography
Theoretically, if the TUV take sufficient votes from the DUP to prevent them getting through on the first count, or a surge of David Cameron inspired hype puts the Conservative and Unionists ahead of the DUP (this I think we can discount), then Sinn Féin will be elected on the first count and the UUP (or whatever they are calling themselves) or more likely the DUP on the second or subsequent counts, by which time the SDLP will be so far ahead of whichever Unionist party remains that they would capture the third seat.
This would be especially likely if the UUP do surge ahead of the DUP, as the SDLP would get transfers from Alliance voters and the DUP would not.
But I think we can reliably assume that the the UUP will not make any gains, though the DUP may incur losses to the TUV. Not having Unionist sensibilities I have no means of gauging how large these losses would be.
In 2004 the DUP had 38, 441 votes over the quota. Thus they would need to lose approx 40,000 votes to TUV/UUP (renamed) in order to miss the first count. In 1999 the PUP and UKUP won 42,777 votes (they did not stand in 2004), so it seems reasonable to assume that the TUV may win around this number and thus the DUP will be deprived of a quota on the first count.
However, forewarned is forearmed. Unionists now know that they have to transfer to all Unionist parties running to keep their alleged but rapidly disappearing majority before the public eye for another five years.
But then possibily my calculations as to the expected size of the Unionist majority (I think around 4,500) have been too conservative (I allow myself a 10,000 error margin, or 2% of the vote), in which case the Unionists are doomed whichever way the cookie crumbles.