And now for something completely different – Irish, British or Northern Irish?
The Newsletter reported yesterday that almost a quarter of Catholics consider themselves Northern Irish (http://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/YOUR-VIEWS-Would-you-describe.4751380.jp). This throws up an interesting question as to how NI is changing (and for the better). I have no doubt that it is and the rapidity of that change is more acute when the Executive meets than when it doesn’t. The GFA’s brilliance was it reconciled the right to be Irish, British and Northern Irish within an agreed constitutional settlement for at least a generation. Its greatest defect was that it allowed one to be British, Irish or Northern Irish (or a mixture of the same) and argue for each position – a united Ireland, the Union, the good of NI – for at least a generation. Perhaps the future should not be seen in absolutes or for all time. Perhaps, in our situation, a generation is as good as it gets. And our generation will have to renegotiate something different!
As always with these NILT polls lets fact check their findings with one of the few things we get a full poll on, political leanings:
http://www.ark.ac.uk/nilt/2007/Political_Attitudes/POLPARTY.html
Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) 20%
Sinn Féin 14%
Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) 18%
Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) 20%
Alliance 8%
Other party (please specify) 2%
None of these 15%
Other answer 1%
Don’t know 1%
Excuse me while I think yet again, their sampling is totally flawed and as a result the data highly suspect.
Realistically a permanent all time settlement was never possible. The GFA did however cement the current status quo anti and particularly importantly the Irish republic recognised the legal existence of NI as part of the UK. In that sense the GFA is pretty unionist because it underpins the current status of NI as part of the UK. Obviously a future generation might change that fact but I am doubtful of that.
Yes, I have always wondered at the relative silence over the changes and amendments vis-a-vis Articles 2 and 3 of the Irish Constitution!
I’m going to go out on a limb here – I’d suggest that the consistent lack of reflection of political identification in the massive ‘Northern Ireland Life and Times’ survey may have something to do with who won’t be responding to a massive document with Northern Ireland written all over it.
But i supopose it gives some people something to cling to once a year and then I assume be utterly shocked when they see how real people actually vote en-masse.
Maybe weighting to reflect their inability to actually produce results that reflect reality would be in order?
Anne, don’t you mean “the next generation” will have to renegotiate something different…? Or will it be down to us late-50-somethings as we will be then…?
Just wondering…
Mark, I’m not sure what your post means. Do you mean that perhaps almost a quarter of Catholics DON’T feel they can call themselves Northern Irish?
It’s just with the speed of your post in refute of the original, one would almost think that there’s something wrong with so many people considering themselves to be Northern Irish. It’s a good halfway house. It’s increasingly a label – and oh so many people in this region need a label – that many are comfortable with.
Wouldn’t it be good to have something like that?
Or are you merely refuting the NILT survey and I shouldn’t read anything more into it than that….?
If the GFA reconciles the “right” to be Norn Irish with the two national identities, then why can one not choose that identity on a census form?
The GFA explicitly does feck all for anyone who sees themself first and foremost as “Northern Irish”. It is, of course, a regional identity rather than a national one, and is not recognised in the GFA, or any other way in law that I can think of.
In fact, if one rejects the labels of (British) unionist and (Irish) nationalist, then it actively discriminates AGAINST those who choose any other identity.
A bit of a rose-tinted analysis of the GFA there Anne.
Mark
The previous survey indicated 20% saw themselves as Northern Irish, while this one puts the figure at 25%, so the figure does seem to be growing, even if the methodology is suspect (and is outside the margin of error).
And since I don’t think there’s as much embarrassment to admitting to being N. Irish as there is to being a voter for a particular party, the figures are more likely to be accurate.
Yes, I am 34 next month ( I accept e cards) and the march of history seems to be generational at the very least. However, I qualify that with the belief that if we begin the debate now (without having to reach a conclusion) about where we go we can 1. Isolate those who oppose the agreed, constitutional settlement (not that they are not entitled to, but the majority on the island of Ireland voted for It) and 2. Reach a possible consensus on a way forward without creating a gap that can be filled through violence.
I agree with Mark that I don’t think we can take the NILTS as a guarantee of views but I do think when people vote they vote according to a multiplicity of factors.
It doesn’t have to be a tick box on a form to feel it. But you might have a point Gonzo, that it should be!
The Raven,
I’m just pointing out – as I do every time one of these NILT surveys is released and the media latches onto some aspect that is supposed to show a lack or reducing appetite for Irish unity – if you look at the only aspect that is subject to mass polling in elections, poltical identity, this survey consistently returns results that shows no refection of SF’s true vote.
SF at 14%. 4th largest support. As close to Alliance as it is the SDLP.
Excuse me while a I get my salt pinching equipment.
The day they get political identity near an electoral result is the day I’ll take this guff and their sampling seriously.
All of it is flawed when the checkable is so detached from reality.
Tell us Ann.
How many of the East Belfast DPP Sub Group meetings did you attend when a member?
Without getting bogged down re: the LTS it is still a worthwhile debate to have.
Answer my question NOW
BG,
The political identification is so outside the margins of error across all the main 4 parties in every singe election it seems to indicate a massive sampling problem that stretches across this survey.
That kind of continual failing makes every single result highly questionable.
The day they have SF above the SDLP is the day I’ll start to even consider it credible.
This nonsense has been going on for years.
14% they say? Do they sell bridges too?
Still, Mark – I find such a near-instant dismissal of the notion – as opposed to the poll – that increasing numbers of people may be happy, or maybe just comfortable with a chosen identity that doesn’t immediately lend itself to orange or green quite to be just a tad quick-off-the-mark.
It certainly isn’t a national identity – it IS regional. But if it turned out, over time, to be a very easy solution to such an everyday topic – then why *couldn’t* it be an option? And one that many may happily subscribe to?
Sure, there’s nothing like keeping those interminable problems as being just that – interminable.
Waste of Space, I’d love to see where you’re taking this in relation to the topic.
WoS,
How about you stop trolling? If you’ve nothing to say on the topic have a go at saying nothing.
Raven,
I’ve been a continual critic of the NILT for this reason.
It may seem like a knee-jerk but its the first thing I check and until the day they get close to reflecting verifiable reality I’ll be a massive sceptic of the whole project – especially as the unverifiable data is used by many to support political hypothesis.
Ann-
What was your attendance?
Mark
I’m not convinced that your argument stacks up in the way you think it does.
Haven’t you heard of floating voters?
That’s 19% of the sample.
Or do you imagine that the population all have fixed major party political leanings?
Now, perhaps there is an embarrassment factor for Sinn Féin voters.
But that 19% allows room for much variation in actual voting patterns.
And it doesn’t, in itself, affect any of the other findings of the survey.
Mark, we’ll agree to differ and I will continue to remain an optimist.
Waste of Space and indeed Time, it is much better to keep your trap shut, and let people think you are fool, than to open it, and confirm the fact.
Is there a moderator in the house?
Pete,
The poll gives options for all those floating voters or non-voters.
It still shows SF in 4th fighting a battle with APNI and the SDLP with the people they get returns from.
Again I suggest if you put Northern Ireland on the front of a survey they are automatically producing weighting.
Here’s an idea.
Try three surveys with the same questions and samping methods and change the title:
Irish LTS
British LTS
NI LTS
I’d love to see that.
Folks, the main reason for posting the blog was to generate a debate about the GFA and nationality. Is it as acceptable to be Northern Irish, as it is British or Irish – which are two acceptable nationalities? I don’t have the answers or a preference and the NILTS has conducted a small sample that cannot necessarily be compared with electoral results but the ‘poll’ has raised a vital question.
Mark
Don’t you accept that the figures I’ve quoted represent those floating voters before they are faced with an election?
That’s 19% of the sample.
Or do you imagine that the population all have fixed major party political leanings at all times?
Perhaps you, and in another forum Sinn Féin, need to consider that point further.
Anne
It doesn’t seem as if there was a small sample used.
Pete,
What was the actual figure? Samples are around 1000 – 2000. I mean small in terms of the electorate.
I have a holiday home in Tír Conaill. Can I call myself Northern Irish? My inlaws are from Tír Conaill. Are they Northern Irish? And Waste of space has a bone to pick, let him at it.
Anne
A survey of 1179 adults is not small in statistical terms.
Ann would do well to come clean on her East Belfast DPP attendance.
The truth will out.
Íosa Críost, how many generations have you to be NOT born in Britain before you can stop calling yourself British? If you were born before 1922 and still alive then you were born in ireland, so that makes you irish.What is this constant push to pretend that northern nationalists are ashamed to call themselves Irish? Is this the outworking of the stoop’s mantra about ‘post nationalist Ireland’?
I meant to include the fact that if your parents/grandparents were born in pre 1922 Ireland, then logically you must be Irish.
This one has been grossly overhyped. N.I. politically-related surveys and opinion polls are notoriously unreliable. The Alliance Party vote for example is usually grossly overstated as people play safe.
‘Northern Irish’ would be seen as the ‘safety’ option in this survey a la Alliance party.
The % identifying as Northern Irish has not actually changed that much since 1998, if you look at the module page on community relations:
http://www.ark.ac.uk/nilt/results/comrel.html
It’s been around 26-27% since 2005, and the lowest it’s been since 1998 is 19% (in 1999 and 2002). The proportion of Catholics describing themselves as Northern Irish has been higher than a quarter in the past. So I don’t see that this story is really news.
What is interesting, relating to Mark’s point, is that the question on political party support has been changed this year – which wrecks the time series, unfortunately, and it would have been better to add the new question rather than replace the old one. The question used to be ‘which NI political party would you support?’ and the 2006 result is here:
http://www.ark.ac.uk/nilt/2006/Political_Attitudes/NIPARTY.html
When it’s changed to the more touchy-feely ‘which NI political party do you feel closest to, even if you do not always vote for them?’ the results are different – the SDLP in particular do a lot better.
The response to the question on political identity is also interesting, with 40% describing themselves as neither unionist nor nationalist – which again is not new, although it’s increased slightly over the years:
http://www.ark.ac.uk/nilt/2007/Political_Attitudes/UNINATID.html
So I think looking at these questions together tells us something about trends in identity and its political expression – but it dones’t translate into changes in voting patterns.
Mark,
So would the only polls you accept be nameless for fear of bias? (Your other points more or less accepted)
—–
But to actually go to the heart of the thread- I don’t really like the term Northern Irish. I’d prefer people just accept they are both currently Irish and British. (Or even Irish OR British if they can’t do the former.)
Irish geographically / ethnically etc. and British until such times as the people in NI vote out of the union and your income tax stops going to Westminster.
I don’t really see a problem with either if everyone just chills the eff out and accepts the situation in which they live.
Incidentally I don’t buy into the ‘state of mind’ argument I hear so often from ‘southerners’, ie (s)he ‘considers’ him/herself Irish/British so that’s what (s)he is. You get born in a certain political state and that’s it until you have it changed it is it not?
Nomad: Incidentally I don’t buy into the ‘state of mind’ argument I hear so often from ‘southerners’, ie (s)he ‘considers’ him/herself Irish/British so that’s what (s)he is. You get born in a certain political state and that’s it until you have it changed it is it not?
Absolutely not – Citizenship may be a technicality, but Political Identity is personal. In between, we have the fuzzy territory of Geographical Identity. In my view, the GFA took the pressure off those sorts of decisions – and was long overdue.
There are, of course, people who see no distinction between the three headings above. You can recognise them on Slugger by their odd rhetorical questions, dogmatic statements, and their attempts to nail jelly to the wall.
One quick question – if so many Catholics define themselves as Northern Irish, then why is there no demonstrable groundswell of support, for example, the Northern Ireland football team? The vast majority of football supporters that I witness in Newry, like myself, wear Republic shirts and are totally indiffferent to Northern Ireland.
Another seldom discussed aspect to this is the questionable notion of Northern Protestants being ‘inherently British’ is a relatively modern phenomenon. Those who fought against Home Rule perceived themselves simply as Irishmen/women who strongly supported the union with Scotland, England and Wales ie. they were Irish Unionists – it was never originally about being British and not Irish. Of course a couple of World Wars and the psychological impact of the Troubles changed all that….
“If the GFA reconciles the “right” to be Norn Irish with the two national identities, then why can one not choose that identity on a census form?”
No-one wants to frighten the horses at an early stage, but give it time and the new national identity will be engineered by the mandarins who devised the GFA. Constructive ambiguity and stealth, step-by-step design are the applicable terms.
“The GFA explicitly does feck all for anyone who sees themself first and foremost as “Northern Irish”. It is, of course, a regional identity rather than a national one, and is not recognised in the GFA, or any other way in law that I can think of.”
How many region identities have an explicitly stated right to self-determination? None, precisely because they are regional identities and are not entitled to separate claims to self-determination. While that right to (national) self-determination is currently qualified in the GFA as being an either/or option of transferring the sovereignty to the Ireland or allowing the UK government to retain it, who would oppose a sovereign nation if the people of Northern Ireland decided on that third option? I think you would find that if the regional identity is transmogrified into a national identity by skilful political engineering (supported by surveys as above), that that implicit third option would not be disputed; and, so, de facto if not de jure, there is a validated claim to national self-determination and a national identity to underpin it. In addition, what would happen to the status of Northern Ireland in the event of the break-up of the union of the UK (not impossibility) and the failure of the people of Northern Ireland to join the Republic in such an event? They’d have little option other than to declare themselves to be an independent, sovereign state.
WoS,
I think you have irredeemably offended the lady by continually spelling her name wrong.
Pacman,
So, you reckon it is okay to wear a Northern Ireland shirt in Newry? Will you vouch for my safety if I try it this afternoon?
I wouldn’t read too much into someone saying they are Northern Irish. I would describe myself as Northern Irish from time to time, because I’m from Northern Ireland, but that doesn’t mean I think Northern Ireland is a desirable entity or that I get all misty-eyed about Scene Around Six.
I can’t see why you’d feel in any danger, 6CP. I regularly see Rangers and NI tops in all of the main shopping areas and no-one (to my knowledge) bats an eye. Probably best to avoid Derrybeg or Barcroft though (but then they’re housing estates and not that attractive to shoppers).
Thanks for the reassurance, pacman.
Dave – Agree with you on your last point about the third option becoming a possibility. I don’t see necessarily how this is bad thing from an ‘Irish’ perspective. If we look at the facts
1. Nationalist numbers are increasing within Northern Ireland relative to Unionist numbers.
There is no chance of a return of Unionist domination.
2. A sovereign Northern Ireland would be as free to be Irish in nature as it liked, and to define it’s own Irishness on it’s own terms. (There is no reason why the state to the south & west should have a monopoly on that). I would expect, for example, official status for Gaelic in such a state.
3. I would imagine such a state would join the EU and probably also the Euro. Free movement between north and south would remain, along with (hopefully) a fluidity of citizenship.
4. Such a state would be free to become a Republic if it wished. I imagine if traditional nationalists outnumbered traditional unionists in such a state that would be the case.
5. Northerners would actually have to work together to run a real country in control of their own destiny – instead of resorting to obstructionism (throwing toys out of the pram and crying for mammy or daddy!) and relying on hand outs from another island!
My own personal preference, in the long term, is for some form of Irish unity. I’d be happy enough with NI independence as an alternative though – as long as we kept good relations all round. It’s certainly a better option than repartition!
Pete
You are being completely disingenuous here. Yes, floating voters do matter, and 19% is a high figure. But what you are suggesting is that SF’s voters are statistically much, much more likely to be floating voters than anyone else. And then they go and consistently vote for SF, in ever greater numbers. Second, if we track SF’s numbers in those polls from about 2000 to 2006, we see it stays in a tight band of 9-11%. Now, given the rise of SF’s vote in this time, you would reasonably expect to see some tick upward in party identification even if it does not cover the full size of that change.
So, while you might be right, you are on the edges of statistical probability there, if people have polled right. And it also strikes me that many pollsters spend a hell of a lot of time trying to work out ways around these types of factors. But surely you or Mick have some contacts with polling agencies. No way of getting an expert opinion?
Odd though for someone so interesting in detail you are quite happy to accept this at face value.
As for the “Northern Irish” or “equally” responses, strikes me as a classic middle of the road answer. Whether or not people actually believe it I don’t know. Though even if not, it’d be revealing they think it the “right” response.
I want to know about Anne’s East Belfast DPP attendance for some bizarre reason.
Not offended at all folks. I am not commenting further on the matter save as to say there was a member of the public who attended meetings whom I had to file an intimidation and harassment claim against previously. For my own safety I did not attend meetings. Anyone else who wishes to comment on this should contact the Policing Board, whom I informed of the situation.
Hey, you think that we in NI/The North/The Six Counties/Ulster are confused. Spare a thought for Justin Rose. He’s a mess. (2nd paragraph)
For my own safety I did not attend meetings(of the Policing Board).
Is nowhere safe these days?
It makes sense to me Im Irish and live on the north of the Island!Friends of mine in Galway call themselves from the wild west of Ireland!Cork people are proud of being from the south! I think people now realise how important it is to be proud of what immediate area townland, parish especially County (of course I say this being from Tyrone)and of course which unique celtic province your from nowadays.
But i guess without being politically minded ill never understand what the word ‘Northern’ really means!
Cian.
You’ve got it slightly wrong. Cork people are proud of being from Cork
These days I´d probably prefer to tick the box: Irish and European. Do we always have to restrict things to our rainswept island(s)? There´s a whole big continent out there that we are part of too.