Paddy Power is already paying out on an Obama victory..”We declare this race well and truly over and congratulate all those who backed Obama,” Power said.
“Although he seemed a little out of sorts in last night’s final debate we believe he has done more than enough to get him across the line on November 4.”
As part of NICVA’s series of masterclasses from its Centre for Economic Empowerment project, there was a morning seminar on the topic of the “creative class” (as popularised by Richard Florida) and its applicability to Northern Ireland. The agenda was to: Explain Richard Florida’s idea of the “creative class” and the link between economic outcomes [...] read our review »
It’s not often we get free things to give away to our readers, but courtesy of Palgrave Macmillan we have a nice paperback copy of Brian M Walker’s excellent history of partition of the island and how identities shifted in both the north east and the south and west: as most of the territory that [...] read our review »
Will they still take bets on McCain?
Speaking to a number of Americans this week I get the distinct impression that the pollsters have it right but the people are telling porkies to the pollsters.
One can never be sure but I believe that the shade of Obama’s skin, his name, his background will go againist him.
White America isnt and never will be ready for a Black president, their history, identity and pride confines them to a belief in their own supremacy.
On the day, in the booth, they will vote for McCain, thats what I think.
Sad, but I believe true.
Mr Smithson has made a fortune Bit early to pay out IMHO
i read on one blog the other day that carter trailed truman by 9 points in the election of 1971 and won by a lanslide. Do you think it is possible for bush to pull ahead and defeat harry reed in this years presidentual race?
Ford actually trailed Carter by 33% after the Democratic convention and only lost by 2% in the election (1976) – so big moves ain’t unheard of. I share ggn’s concerns however if does look like the Democrats have sorted out their ground game.
McCain is going to loose.
loose his tie? or lose the election?
Silly, silly, silly.
I direct that at the comments on this thread.
I guarantee that from January we’ll be talking about President Obama dealing with the US recession and cutting funds for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
I take one point though: if the Republican candidate was a white, statesmanlike, positive, and young intellectual then they would swing it by a small margin.
One thing is certain: when history is written, the George Walker Bush presidency will be regarded as the most catastrophic, venal, and poisonous period in the history of the US. It will transfix scholars and repulse Americans for years; I predict severe trauma to go along with the financial fallout.
Watergate and all that flowed from it, alongside the Vietnam war, will seem like small drops in the ocean next to this horrific individual’s record, and those who worked alongside him – Rumsfeld, Cheney, and Paulson.
The charge sheet against the latter is only now taking shape. Letting Lehmans fall and taking over Fannie and Freddie will be seen as the key catalysts in near meltdown of the western world’s financial system.
President Obama and the winner of the next GB general election will have a job of work on their hands getting us out of the Paulson-inspired mess – but I think that the former has only one way to go after the GWB disaster – up, and the latter, Chancellor of the Exchequer for 10 years, will be best placed to turn the corner for those of us in the UK.
Whether we like being part of the UK, or not.
And at times like this, following Gangster Lenihan’s budget – we like it, just a little bit.
ggn ,
‘On the day, in the booth, they will vote for McCain, thats what I think. ‘
Sad, but I believe true.
So what will you believe on the day after the election when Obama has amassed maybe 360 electoral college votes ?
Here’s the deal . The vast majority of Americans care more about their economy and their dollar and the future of their country than the colour of the candidates skin . If that means that even ‘white racists ‘ will vote for Obama then they will .
Don’t know about that Greenflag. I think ggn could be spot on here. Are the Americans any different from us who resort to base sectarianism EVERY time we step into a voting booth? We see all these wee old couples, professional types and youths say on street TV interviews ‘Bang their heads together, take away their pay’ etc about OUR politicians but yet who vote for the same bigoted clowns EVERY time. When most people go into that polling station and take the ballot in their hand they revert to base core beliefs AND prejudices. I think that many US voters are NOT telling the truth about race in these polls and I predict a closer vote than many are predicting.
Yabetcha
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=NrzXLYA_e6E
I could never bring myself to vote for Obama,I think McCain is unpredictable,but if I had to ask myself ; who is the least worst option,it would be McCain.
Obama is the most pro death candidate ever.
He wouldn’t want his daughter” punished with a baby.”
Reagan? Bush senior? Bush junior TWICE FFS???? Dan Quayle? Dodgy Florida votes? Don’t underestimate the stupidity/racism of your average Hokey from Miscoky OR the depths some desperate neo-cons will plunge to. “It’s not over ’til it’s over” as they say.
LURIG surely you mean Okie from Muskogee
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RsSWH-i-kXU
A bit premature for a payout IMHO although I’m hopeful that will be the case.
I don’t think Americans revert to base racism or sectarian motives when behind the curtain although I’m sure there will be a small percentage that do. To suggest as some have that it’s compatible with with Northern Irish voting patterns is a bit of a stretch.
That said, I’ll be keeping my fingers crossed until election day and beyond!!
I meant comparible not compatible… sorry it’s late here
I think Obama will win and i have no problem with that.
I’m sure there will be both white and black who will vote for a candidate because they look more like themselves than the opponent.
Ideally people should vote for parties they think will do a better job at running their country. Whether that party has a black or white figurehead shouldn’t make any difference to people’s vote.
With the election of a black, then female, then hispanic, then Asian president – gradually race and gender will become less of an issue.
It will become less of an issue for the small % of the majority population who have a problem with it because the world won’t fall in under their presidency and it will be less of an issue for the minority communities because having notched up one for ‘their side’, they’ll see that nothing much changes anyway in their own lives.
If he wasn’t black, how far would a white 48-year-old lawyer with an undistinguished track record in academia and law, and a very short spell as a senator get? USP, positive discrimination, and all that – it’s a good time to be black and have a mantra of change. Shame it’ll end in tears when they realise how dogmatically socialist he is behind the sleek manipulation.
Just for the record.
Has Paddy Power ever called it wrong on an early payout?
Now, I’m not that au fait with betting but McCain is 5/6 +160 electoral college votes in the Paddy Power handicap. Now I might be understanding this wrong but as I see it, if McCain gets 111 electoral colleges votes in the actual election plus his 160 from the handicap then they pay out? Surely this has to be the deadest of dead certs?
willis,
‘Has Paddy Power ever called it wrong on an early payout?’
Certainly have – recently too.
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2008/0613/breaking60.html
“Bookmaker Paddypower has admitted it made a mistake, after paying out more than €80,000 in bets on a Yes vote in the Lisbon Treaty referendum.
As polls closed at last night, the bookmaker made a decision to pay out punters who had backed a Yes vote after unofficial exit polls indicated a late surge in support for the treaty.
The blunder means the bookmaker will be forced to pay out over €180,000 in referendum bets.
In a statement, Paddy Power said: “Last night, there were rumours of an exit poll showing the Yes side in the lead and all the late betting suggested a swing in support for the treaty.”
“It’s an unlucky Friday 13th for Paddy Power but a lucky one for our punters,” it added.”
the original sam maguire,
Think you need to halve the 160 handicap, as Obama will pick up these ECVs if McCain doesn’t – so bet is effectively McCain to get 190 or more ECVs unhandicapped.
Powers reckon this will ‘cost’ them €1 million in payouts (according to radio yesterday).
They can hedge that payout by betting on Mc Cain to win the 1 million which will at current odds cost them around €150,000 (both amounts will be much less if the money they’ve already taken on Mc Cain is factored in).
So in effect right now it’ll cost the smart boys and girls in Powers just €150k max for all this publicity.
Paddy Power, like most bookmakers, is far from stupid. I reckon he must have seen this shot from the end of the last debate in which we can clearly see, in our mind’s eye, one word stamped across McCain’s image: LOSER!
http://news.uk.msn.com/week_in_pictures.aspx?cp-documentid=660699&imageindex=1#660699
Cheers Suilven, that makes much more sense.
If a black man cannot win with the american economy in such a state then it will be one hell of a long time before a black man can(possibly never)
I would not have such faith in human beings to do the right thing but as in reaity it probably does not make that much difference who wins it would be an amazing symbolic achievment for america if the could show that they can rise above racism.
When I say that it does not make that much difference who wins what I mean that in such a dire economic situation there are not many options open to either side and I am sure that there cannot be much difference in these options either.
Lots of Americans will vote McCain for two reasons.
One because he and Palin are white and secondly because the Reps shout Jesus the loudest.
Dosent matter that Palin is nuts and McCain is a joke.
As long as they are white and say they are christians
lurig
‘Are the Americans any different from us who resort to base sectarianism EVERY time we step into a voting booth?’
Very different despite the cultural lingistic , historical and familial connections with Ireland and Northern Ireland .
When Americans vote they are not voting on their constitutional status as a political entity each time they vote . If the opposition wins the State does not cease to exist .Secondly the electorate is made up of two strong party bases approx 30% for Republicans, 30% Democrat with 40% (Independents ) who are persuadable . You don’t have that in Northern Ireland and I’d guess that in the Republic that independent figure when you take away core FF, FG , Labour and SF ( 35% , 25 % , 10% , 5% resp ) would be at most 20% . In Northern Ireland I’d guess ‘real’ independents might be around 6% but I can be corrected on that
Senator McCain is losing this election not because of his ‘skin colour ‘ is but because of the party he represents . That Party has become become steadily more extreme over the past 25 years since Reagan’s time . The extreme ‘religious ‘ right in attempting to subvert the US Constitution from within have brought the house of cards down on themselves . The ‘fundamentalist ‘ free marketeers have done a similiar job not just on the USA but on the entire world economy .
I can’t imagine any other prominent Republican from among the candidates doing as well as McCain has done .
As I said earlier McCain’s time should have been 2000. He might then have been just ‘maverick ‘ enough and young enough to reverse the debt spiral . But back then the ‘oil wing ‘ of the Republican party was in the ascendant and Mr Rove pulled every ‘dirty ‘ trick in the book of dirty tricks to discredit McCain’s candidacy .
Blinding: If a black man cannot win with the american economy in such a state then it will be one hell of a long time before a black man can(possibly never)
It’s a shame, Blinding, really is. After all, look how well Black men have run their economies around the world, especially on the continent of Africa. They put white men to shame, don’t they? It’s just not fair if Obama doesn’t get the chance to teach us how it should be done.
But, if you think about it, Blinding, the ‘Joe the Plumber’ incident shows why Obama might just lose this election. His mask slipped for only a few seconds and Americans saw, for the first time, the scary face socialism.
It’s not over till the fat lady sings, and i’m not insulting Barbara!
If any black leader in Africa attempted to run his country’s economy for the benefit of all of his people the CIA would have him assasinated, if the Brits or the French didn’t get him first.
“the scary face socialism”
It’s depressing to see that it’s not just fundamentalist Americans who are easily confused by Obama’s message. If an American dares to offer solutions other than “big business will save us”, they’re branded socialist. During the debate, McCain complained that Obama was trying to spread the wealth. I thought that was the whole point of the so-called American Dream?
Reply to six county prod
The white male(mostly)republicans in america are not covered in economic management glory at the moment either.
Why o why are the american and british goverments not kicking out the banking chief executives on their butts.Can they not see that if they dont put the boot into the executives the electorates are going to put it into them when the dust settles.
Daisy, American Dream=Socialism, is that what you are saying? Try selling that one to Americans!
Daisy, but you gotta give it to Obama, he was being truthful when he acknowledged that his policy would, in effect, ‘punish success’ and ‘spread the wealth’ (trans: rob hardworking Peter to pay lazy Paul).
6 county prod,
‘look how well Black men have run their economies around the world,
Indeed It made me think of ‘white men’ ruining Albania , Northern Ireland , East Germany , Romania , Weimar & Nazi Germany, Argentina and many others throughout history . And we know from our history how the ‘White British ‘ ruled the white Irish doing such a good job that the population of the country was reduced by half during the 19th century -
Reduce the public sector element of the NI economy by 70% i.e to almost ROI levels and NI would barely be ahead of Botswana in per capita GDP .
Yes much of Africa is a mess . The reasons for it are a bit more complex than the colour of people’s skins .
Some of those reasons oddly enough bare very strong resemblance to what has been happening in the ‘developed ‘ Anglosphere countries in recent times .
You may or may not recall the excess amount of ‘petrodollars ‘ which found their way back into the western banking system after the oil price hike following the Israeli /Arab war in 1973 .
And what did our ‘western bankers ‘ do with all those excess petro dollars . Nobody in the west wanted to borrow money at 12% or more so step up guess who – you betcha – the recently independent Presidents of Zambia , Tanzania , Zaire , Nigeria etc etc . In fact any tin pot dictator around the world who could wear a military uniform or a suit and could call himself President qualified for ‘free money’.
Amazingly there was little or no OVERSIGHT or check made on these countries abilities to pay back these loans or restrictions made on the type of investments this money was directed to. In short the western banks cared little as long as they got the money ‘earning ‘ interest they did’nt care . They paid as much attention to African economic conditions as the hedge fund and derivative supremos of Wall St and banks paid to the ‘real ‘ American economy.
And of course when these African tin pot dictators got their hands on all the ‘dosh’ how did they behave ? As we have and are continuing to see from recent events not that much different from the ‘white ‘ Wall St gangsters who have looted the American middle class with abandon these past years .
The main difference between both sets of gangsters is that the Wall St shower don’t go around with machine guns to destroy peole’s lives . They do it much more efficiently with worthless pieces of paper.
6countyprod, only those who earn a lot are hardworking? I know many who would dispute that.
‘It’s not over till the fat lady sings,’
The fat lady is facing foreclosure . She has’nt had a real wage increase in a decade and she now owes four times more on her credit card than she did a decade ago . Her husband has either lost his job or his company is preparig to downsize or outsource to China or Mexico .
All she has left is her God but even he refuses to pitch up to help her following his recent failure to address in person an action taken out against him by a Senator from Nebraska . The judge threw out the case on the basis that the action notice had not been delivered to God’s address . The senator countered that an all knowing God by definition would have been aware of the action anyway and his failure to appear was contempt of the judicial process .
Oh and the fat lady won’t be singing ye see . Main reason being she has lost her voice being renderdered speechless at the economic and foreign policies insantities of this corrupt administration over the past several years!
danny o’connor ,
‘I could never bring myself to vote for Obama’
I understand . He’s a nasty black protestant who believes women should have access to abortion.
‘Obama is the most pro death candidate ever.’
Which is why he opposed the Iraqi War from day one a war which is now costing the USA 200 billion a year and a trillion dollars to date not to mention probably anything from 300,000 to 700,000 lives .
‘He wouldn’t want his daughter” punished with a baby.” ‘
Neither would any responsible parent want a teenage daughter to be forced to have a baby because of lack of sexual education , ignorance or because of rape etc .
Americans are not going to overthrow Roe v Wade . Sad to say according to the author of ‘Freakonomics ‘ abortion has been responsible for keeping American prison numbers down to 3 million from a probable 8 million if ‘abortion’ was totally outlawed as it is in Ireland .
We Irish need to wise up and realise ‘women ‘ need to have access to abortion no matter how much many of us -including myself would prefer if this issue were addressed by ‘responsible ‘ behaviour by young and not so young adults .
As we are restricted to being human beings and not Gods outlawing ‘abortion’ is about as useful as proposing ‘abstinence ‘ as a means of birth control or proposing that Africans should not be issued with ‘free condoms ‘ as an aids protection mechanism on account of the sanctity of the human ‘sperm’ or ‘ova’
Yeah,the anti-choice brigade shout in the US about how they care about the unborn.
But once its born,they forget about it,no health care etc,no help whats so ever,until they reach military age,then they are just fine.
I,am self,couldnt vote either parties.
Reps are ultra luney right and all Obama goes on about is the middle classes.
Tweedle dee and Tweedle dum for choice when it comes to helping the majority,the working class.
Looney right,not luney.hahaha
Jambo,
‘Obama goes on about is the middle classes’
Indeed . The reason being there is no significant American ‘working class’ . The ‘working class’ is largely made up of illegal immigrants who can’t vote and poor white Americans who have to work two jobs to maintain a family and who won’t have time to vote .
Cruel as it is Obama is being ‘realistic’ in his appeal to the ‘middle class’. He knows and has always known that appealing just to black voters even if they supported him 9 to 1 would not be enough .
The good paying union defended white working class jobs have by now mostly been ‘exported’ as part of what is called ‘globalisation ‘ ‘free market supremacy etc etc .
Now that the same phenomenon is happeing to ‘middle class’ voters it makes sense for Obama to appeal to these people most of whom will actually vote .
Tweedle dum and Tweedle dee . Yes there’s a certain element of that in every democratic election in any democracy worldwide -but this one is different for we are all witnessing a ‘reformation’ of the world economic order and it’s clear that that order is not going to be the Republican Party’s preferred version .
This result matters . Not because of who Obama or McCain are but of which view of the world each would bring with him to the Presidency .
The world at large prefers the Obama view . There are good reasons for that !
it’s not the first time Paddy power influences betting.
Still too close to call.
Too many cross-currents. It’s like Quantum Mechanics’ Uncertainty Principle.
Plus, I’d like to see the Electoral College punt the election to the House Of Representatives.
You guys take things far too seriously. Last night Mac and O had a great time together.
Here’s what Mac said about O:
I don’t want it getting out of this room, but my opponent is an impressive fellow in many way. Political opponents can have a little trouble seeing the best in each other. But I’ve had a few glimpses of this man at his best and I admire his great skill, energy and determination. It’s not for nothing, but he’s inspired many folks in his own party and beyond. Senator Obama talks about making history and he’s made quite a bit of it already. There was a time when the mere invitation of an African-American citizen to dine at the White House was taken as an outrage and an insult. Today is a world away from the cruelty and prideful bigotry of that time – and good riddance.
I can’t wish my opponent luck, but I do wish him well.
video clips of full speeches, McCain and Obama.
When Senator McCain can escape the clutches of his Bush era minders and can speak his mind – he’s a gent . I remember his refusal to attend an invite to Ian Palsey’s alma mater the renowned Bob Jones University of last resort for bigots and nutty fundies . His standing up to the ‘water board ‘ tortures of Guantanamo and elswhere are also deserving of respect .
He’s just in the wrong party this year and he knows it . His job now is to try and limit the number of Senate seats that that are heading to the Democrats . Mrs Dole’s safe seat in North Carolina is under threat as is another safe seat in Georgia .
I think, Greenflag, that your attempt to explain Obama’s usage of “middle classes” may be a bit over complicated. In the U.S. the term middle class is used to include what we know as the working class and really means everyone but the rich, those dependent solely on welfare and the criminal classes (excepting rich criminals favoured by the political class).
Rory ,
Congratulations
For only the second time on Slugger you get to see the words
‘I stand corrected’ from GF’s travelling laptop .
feckin nitpicker
As it’s Friday I’ll leave this thread with a question and answer for all who may be perturbed at the seeming ability of tens of millions of white Americans to vote for a black President and yet never seem to be perturbed at the inabilty of white Republican people and white Unionist people politicans in Northern Ireland not only not to vote for themuns , but also for their respective politicians not to meet each other, although they are officially partners in government and morevover get paid handsomely for their non fulfillment of their statutory obligations ?
A mystery indeed
?
Question :
Are there any historical precedents for the Northern Ireland form of Government .
Answer :
(and this should appeal to our ‘creationists ‘ assuming they can refrain for a moment and put away ‘their ‘Armageddon is upon us placards ‘ and ‘Your End is nigh ” not to mention ‘The Wages of Sin is Death’ and not a Golden parachute etc .
I digress once again
Answer :
YES !
In the story of the Creation , God made Eve , put her alone in the Garden of Eden and said to Adam :
‘Now choose a woman ‘.
Any American candidate using the working class all the time would get classed as a commie,by some quarters and most who class themselfs as middle are really working class.
Also the working class do vote,when i was Georgia,Alabama and Mississippi i met a few working class people who thought Bush was just great.
They had shit jobs,run down houses but since Bush didnt like,Homosexuals,blacks etc etc he was just fine.
I pointed out that Bush said he was going to give tax cuts to the rich,but that didnt matter.
Mental yes,but wars were never won without collaborators.
Go along to Stone mountain just outside of Atlanta at the weekend,especially near the 4th july.
You will see what the white working class people think and vote.
Its one sickening show of so called patriotism.
I work on the West Coast with several hardcore Republicans. Most couldn’t stand McCain when he was nominated but reluctantly supported him when “that one” started making strides. Now, with Hussein Obama apparently on the road to the White House, most are almost happy it’s the brother who’s going to be stuck with the mess that is U.S.A INC. “He’s not going to be able to do dick for four years. Next election, he’ll be on his ass and we’ll be back in.”, seems to be the thinking.
6CoP
“It’s a shame, Blinding, really is. After all, look how well Black men have run their economies around the world, especially on the continent of Africa. They put white men to shame, don’t they? It’s just not fair if Obama doesn’t get the chance to teach us how it should be done.”
So what exactly are you saying here 6CoP? Are you saying that the evidence shows that Black people are inferior?
I think you should spell out what your insinuation is. Because I for one do not like to see this sort of insinuation.